BULLETIN – RASMUSSEN HAS ROMNEY LEADING IN OHIO – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  Reader and historian Will Stroock alerts us to a Rasmussen poll just published, which has Mitt Romney taking a two-point lead in Ohio.  However, the report comes with a serious caveat:

The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.

Ohio remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Based on the current projections, Romney would have to win Wisconsin if he loses Ohio in order to move into the White House.

The candidates have been locked in a very tight battle in Ohio since August. A week ago, Romney and Obama were tied in the Buckeye State with 48% support each. This is the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race.

And the important caveat:

Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote. The question of who wins Ohio may come down to whether enough Romney voters get to the polls on Election Day to overcome the president’s lead among early voters.

Scott Rasmussen has noted that “Wisconsin May Be The New Ohio.”To win the election, Romney will have to win at least one of these two battleground states.

COMMENT:  That Obama lead among early voters is disturbing.  Where did it come from?  Why are the early voters so lopsided in their support for Obama?  Is anyone "guiding" the casting of those votes?  I'd like to see some real reporting, from Fox, on that.  I see that Fox's Bill Hemmer is in Ohio today.

Rasmussen says that Romney has a large lead among those who plan to vote.  How large?  I've calculated, to my minimal mathematical abilities, that Romney would have to win about 57% of the remaining vote, with Obama getting about 43%, to overcome Obama's giant lead in early voting.  That is a 14-point gap.  How is that done?

October 29, 2012