RASMUSSEN – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen, who is based in New Jersey, continues to operate despite the effects of the storm.  In part this is because his actual polling is done from other locations, where they're not dependent on flashlights and candles.  From today's report, just issued:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

That's pretty much where it's been. 

New surveying Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado. That marks little change from a week ago, and the state remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

Rasmussen is cautious in his projections, which is one of the reasons we like him.  Other pollsters would interpret a three-point lead as a win.

In Wisconsin, surveying from Monday night finds the race remains tied at 49%, just like last week. Wisconsin, too, is still a Toss-Up and is critical to Romney’s fortunes if he loses Ohio.

I'll take a tie right now.  Republican enthusiasm, unmatched on the other side, can make the difference.

In the Ohio Senate race, incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown has a 50% to 48% lead over Republican challenger Josh Mandel, shifting that race back to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings. In addition to Ohio, Rasmussen Reports currently rates six other Senate races as Toss-Ups: Connecticut, Florida, Montana, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

That's fascinating.  Most other polls have Brown up by much more in Ohio.  Maybe Mandel can pull it out, but I think it's a long haul. 

Polling should be getting back to normal in the next few days, and we'll have an avalanche of state polls over the weekend.  But remember – only a minority of polls turn out to be that accurate.  We'll render judgment after the election returns are in.

In contrast to Rasmussen, Dick Morris is still predicting a huge Republican blowout next week, with Republicans taking the presidency and the Senate as well.  The problem is, Morris's prediction record isn't all that good.  Still, I hope he's right.  Maybe the GOP can even take the UN General Assembly and the Egyptian parliament.  Dick probably thinks so.  My own sense is that this my be Morris's last hurrah as a political prognosticator.  If he's way off this time, I think he's toast.

October 31, 2012