FASCINATING POLL RESULTS – AT 9:44 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen has just published his daily tracker:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Other polls show it closer, or even with a slight Obama lead.  But Rasmussen polls among likely voters, and we have faith in his work.

These updates are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Bill Clinton’s prime-time speech last night at the Democratic National Convention. Only one-third of the interviews were conducted following the first night of the convention.

I suspect Obama will get a bounce, but only a slight one.  The convention isn't very popular viewing.

Rasmussen does a fascinating religious breakdown, hinting at the nation's cultural divide:

Among those who rarely or never attend church or other religious services, Obama leads by 22 percentage points. Among those who attend services weekly, Romney leads by 24. The candidates are even among those who attend church occasionally.

Romney leads by seven among Catholic voters and holds a massive lead among Evangelical Christians. Among other Protestants, the Republican challenger is ahead by 13. Among all other Americans, including people of other faiths and atheists, Obama leads by a 62% to 26% margin.

COMMENT:  The Catholic figure is key.  Catholics used to be a stronghold of the Democratic Party.  No longer. 

The church-going, non-church-going figure is stark.  That is a painful divide that is not healthy in a democracy.  But God has been made to feel unwelcome in the Democratic base, and it must be conceded that people who are quiet about their religion aren't always warmly received in the Republican base.  Both parties should work on that.  There's blame to go around.

One figure to note is the undecided vote.  At six percent, that's about where I would expect it to be.  Undecideds usually break in favor of the challenger on election day. 

These polls are actually very early.  We have two months to go.

September 6, 2012