WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:42 A.M. ET:  Although we always caution that polls are snapshots in time, we're watching them with a bit more seriousness than usual because of the remarkable closeness of the race...at least in some of the tracking polls.  Rasmussen today has the race a dead heat: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, the candidates are tied at 48%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

Obama is supported by 89% of Democrats. Romney gets the vote from 85% of Republicans and holds a 12-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

That independent vote number is encouraging.  If Romney can romp among independents, and hold his advantage, he can win the election.

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  Rasmussen cautions that, at this point in the 2008 race, McCain was doing reasonably well.  It was the financial crisis and his erratic approach to it that sank his campaign (along, I think, with the almost hysterical attacks on Sarah Palin). 

About six weeks to go.  No one is running away with the race.  Clearly, Americans are in the market to change presidents.  Otherwise, Obama would be well ahead.  The key is that Romney hasn't made the sale.  Early in his campaign he was cautioned by Rupert Murdoch and Jack Welch (former CEO of General Electric) that he needed a stronger staff.  Their advice was ignored.  Maybe some additional help is now needed, especially in crafting a compelling and sharp message.

September 23,  2012