ROMNEY NOW LEADS IN RASMUSSEN POLL – AT 9:42 A.M. ET:  We always stress that polls are snapshots in time, and subject to a margin of error.  We are watching polls closely, as we always do in a presidential year, but especially now, only five days away from the first debate, Monday night.  We'll compare the pre-debate polls to the post-debate surveys.

Scott Rasmussen commands our attention because he has a history of accuracy, and his methodology makes sense.  He polls likely voters, the only kind who matter.  He is also now including "leaners" in his polls.  With leaners, he now has Romney ahead:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 48% and Obama 46%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question. Beginning October 1, Rasmussen Reports will be basing its daily updates solely upon the results including leaners.

But we vote by state, and the states are a serious challenge for Romney:

Obama has a one- or two-point lead in each of the Key Three States in this year’s election, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. The president is also up by three in Wisconsin and up two in Nevada. Romney is now up two in Colorado and ahead by three in Iowa and New Hampshire. All these states remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The president has big leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

We'd hoped for a Michigan miracle, but it ain't happening.  The huge African-American vote in Detroit, combined with the heavy union vote in the auto industry, probably makes Michigan unwinnable for Romney, although his father was governor of the state. 

Rasmussen has Obama's job approval at 48%, disapproval at 51%.  A president is believed by many pollsters to be in re-election trouble if his job approval dips below 50%. 

We should point out that every other poll we've seen has Obama in the lead.  But both Rasmussen and Gallup have the race very close.  Romney can win this.  The debates may decide it.  It was a debate in 1980 that allowed Ronald Reagan to show that he wasn't the monster created by the press.  He began to build a significant lead over the hopeless Jimmy Carter. 

September 26, 2012