WHERE OBAMA STANDS – Today's Rasmussen tracker shows President Obama with a small lead of two percent, meaning all major polls now show the president in the lead.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

There is a very small sliver of uncommitted voters who do not support one of the two leading candidates at this time. These voters are evenly divided as to whether the economy would get better or worse with a Romney victory. In fact, a plurality (43%) expects little change. However, if Obama is reelected, 43% of the uncommitted voters expect the economy to get worse, while three percent (3%) think it will get better. This tends to confirm the conventional wisdom that uncommitted voters are unhappy with the president but are not convinced that Romney is the solution.

Very well put.  We have long argued here that this country is ready for change, even eager, but that Romney hasn't made the sale.  He'll get the chance in the first debate Monday night.

When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49%, Romney 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question. Beginning this Monday, October 1, Rasmussen Reports will be basing its daily updates solely upon the results including leaners.

Another opportunity being lost:

State polling shows Democrats are now expected to retain control of the Senate. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power projections show the Democrats likely to win or hold 48 seats, while the GOP can probably count on 45. That leaves seven toss-ups. Republicans would need to win six of the seven to win control (or five of the seven if Romney wins and Paul Ryan can cast a tie-breaking vote).

Republicans should have easily retaken the Senate this year, and still might.  But once again, as in 2012, the party is plagued by some very poor candidates.  I admire the Tea Party, but their choices in candidates needs improvement.

Four years ago today, Rasmussen Reports tracking showed Obama leading John McCain by a 50% to 45% margin. The numbers barely budged for the rest of the campaign season as Obama stayed between 50% and 52% every day for the last 40 days.

McCain, a man I've always admired for his devotion to his country, should have been president.  But he ran an inadequate campaign and faced the second-worst press bias I've seen in a presidential election.  The worst is this year.

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove.

Conventional wisdom has it that a president who is below 50% at re-election time is in trouble.  But the fact is that Obama is inching up toward that 50% mark.

We can win this election.  Romney must turn it on in October.  If the party does poorly this year, in the face of the current president's incompetence and record, the party establishment is going to face a brutal challenge from angry Republicans, and it will be deserved.

September 29,  2012