ELECTORAL RUMBLES

It's Tuesday, January 15th, the date of the Michigan primary.

But first, there's news of the party whose members used to say they had more fun.  I don't think the Democrats are laughing it up.  The racial clash of the last week reminds us that this is a party that saw a good chunk of its Southern wing walk out in 1948 and run Strom Thurmond (left), then a Democrat, as the so-called Dixiecrat candidate for president.  The tension between the Clinton and Obama factions doesn't threaten a walkout, but it does threaten unity.  One of these sides is going to be bitterly disappointed when the nomination is decided, and how it reacts may determine the outcome of the election.  Time's Michael Duffy sums it up nicely here.

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have now made statements to try, or pseudo-try, to put the tension behind them.  It can't really work.  Ethnic tension is always remembered.  It isn't an "issue."  It's personal.  Blacks will never see the Clintons the same again, even if Bill renews the lease on his Harlem office and joins the local church choir.  And whites, already a bit jittery over Obama, will wonder when the next cry of "insensitivity" will be thrown up.  The image they have of Obama can easy morph into Al Sharpton.  The next three weeks, which will include Super Tuesday on February 5th, will be absolutely critical.  If the Dems had a real party chairman, rather than Howard "screamin'" Dean, he would be active trying to keep the lid on explosions every day. 

Today the headlines belong to the GOP, whose Michigan primary is serious stuff.  Mitt Romney leads in the Real Clear Politics average by less than one percent.  His father was governor of the state.  He has cash to burn.  If that's the best he can do, even a victory would simply keep the specimen alive, and available for possible tests of new miracle vaccines.  The next big clash is in South Carolina, whose primary is January 19th.  There seems little passionate wanting for Romney there.  The polls show it's now McCain country.  The threat to Big John is Mike Huckabee, who seems to have slipped a bit under the assault launched by Fred Thompson.  Then Florida, which we remember with affection from 2000, votes on January 29th.  Rasmussen is reporting the race is almost a dead heat among the four leading Republicans.  The GOP is turning out to be the party that has more fun.  The fun could last through the spring and into the convention.  These old guys in brown shoes really know how to rumble.

Posted on January 15, 2008.