THE OVERNIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING, JANUARY 20, 2008

•  A new president will be inaugurated exactly one year from today. 

Now, let me assure you of that.  Some of the fringies will probably tell you that it won't happen, that BUSH(!) will find a way to stay in power and that BUSH(!) will then go to war against San Francisco.  Of course CHENEY(!) will be the brains behind the whole thing.  Everyone knows that.  Don't we, darlings?

Oh, it's just so awful living in this police state, where your phones are tapped if you have a Bangladeshi exchange student.  Let's go for brunch.

•  You know by now that McCain won the South Carolina primary, although narrowly, and that Hillary Clinton won the Nevada caucuses.  Many of the pundits and pundettes are saying this contest may go on for a long time in both parties, but I have my doubts.  Some 22 states vote two weeks from Tuesday, and Florida votes in the interim.  I suspect we'll pretty much know the story after that.  If Hillary wins 15 of the 22 primaries on Super Tuesday, it would be tough to deny her.  The GOP side might be more problematical, but the race appears to be coming down to McCain versus Romney, unless Huckabee can show some strength outside the South or Guiliani comes alive.  I don't see either of those two events as likely.  In a McCain-Romney face-off, the advantage goes to McCain.  He has the momentum and the stature, despite the antagonism many conservatives feel toward some things he's done.  It's not the case, after all, that Romney is a conservative hero.  If I had to bet, I'd say we're going to have a Clinton-McCain race, which will be utterly fascinating.  I'll write more about that prospect this week.

By the way, speaking of Rudy, please note that no mayor in the history of New York City has gone on to higher office.  I'm not saying it shouldn't happen.  I like Rudy.  I'm just reporting history.

•  If McCain is the nominee, watch for the press to pay more and more attention to his 23-year-old daughter, Meghan.  She's become a hot item on the campaign trail, and now runs her own blog, which apparently has become popular among the young.  Find it here.

•  My nomination for the best little portrait about the Nevada caucuses, from a story by Jeff Zeleny and Jennifer Steinhauer in today's New York Times:

The battle was most fiercely fought in Las Vegas, particularly at the casinos that hosted some of the caucuses. This provided an odd tableau for a nominating contest: women in black-sequined cocktail dresses and neatly pressed maid uniforms, and men coming off their shifts in the bar and wearing sunglasses indoors as they voted.

The portrait reminded me of a great story about Las Vegas from the 1950s.  There was a Senate committee at the time charged with probing organized crime.  It was chaired by Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee, and was known as the Kefauver Committee.  Kefauver decided to investigate the mob's ties to Las Vegas.  The hearings were spectacular, and were televised,  and Kefavuer was sure he'd scored a victory.  But something strange happened.  After the hearings, tourist business to Las Vegas boomed.  It turned out that people wanted to go there because they thought they'd see real gangsters.  Far from being deterred by the mob, they found it an attraction.  It was reported that some hotels even ordered employees to wear black shirts and black ties, so guests would think they were certified members of the syndicate.

•  Michael Barone, who probably knows more about American politics than anyone else, provides a warm reminiscence of his life studying politicians, and comes to an upbeat conclusion about the state of our politics.  He essentially argues that it's "mostly decent."  Whether you agree or disagree, his analysis is worth reading.

•  London's Telegraph reports something that many have intuitively known - that the rate of violent crime among British youth is soaring.  It has gone up 37 percent in three years.  Britain is experiencing the kind of crime wave we did, starting in the nineteen-sixties.  And there are complaints that will seem familiar to Americans - that the justice system has lost sight of its mission.  Weren't these the people who used to lecture us about how to maintain a civil society? 

•  Suzanne Pleshette, best-known for playing Bob Newhart's wife in one of Newhart's successful TV series, has died at 70.  I never knew her, but saw her often when she was a guest on The Tonight Show, where I served as a talent coordinator.  She was a very popular guest, not only for her looks, but for her natural wit, her intelligence, and for her unforgettable sultry voice.  You got a sense of that voice through the tinny TV speaker, but you had to hear it in person to believe it.  She seemed eternally young, and it's still hard to think of her as 70

•  The world we face:  The Jerusalem Post this week reprinted a remarkable article by Tawfik Hamid, an Egyptian physician, who details how he went down the path toward Islamic extremism, and how he came back.  Please read it and stay with it.  It's a reminder if what the next president will face.

Posted on January 20, 2008.