THE POLITICAL WEATHER

The weather forecast for the race for the Democratic nomination:  Hot, then hotter, with racial winds gradually increasing to gale force.

It's hardly a military secret that this site tilts toward the conservative.  But we talk about the other side, and even give kind, unsolicited advice from time to time.  After all, we want an election, not a wreckage.

I've written about the race issue among Democrats in this space earlier.  Over the weekend it grew into a crisis for the Democratic Party.  We've never had this in a presidential campaign before because we've never had an African-American candidate with a real chance at winning.
Beth Fouhy, writing for AP, begins her report this way:

NEW YORK (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton suggested Sunday that Barack Obama's campaign had injected racial tension into the presidential contest, saying he had distorted for political gain her comments about Martin Luther King's role in the civil rights movement.

"This is an unfortunate story line the Obama campaign has pushed very successfully," the former first lady said in a spirited appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press." "I don't think this campaign is about gender, and I sure hope it's not about race."

Senator Clinton had said that King's dream was realized only when President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964.  She had been illustrating the point that government action had been needed, that words and marches alone could not conquer the problem.  She was implying criticism of Obama as a man of all talk and little action.  Some African-Americans have suggested that she'd been downplaying King's role.  I'm no great lover of Hillary Clinton, or the once-respectable party she hopes to lead, but I can't find anything objectionable in what she said.

John Edwards, who chased an ambulance right into a meeting at an African-American church, could not resist the temptation to demagogue the issue in his all-American-boy way:

"I must say I was troubled recently to see a suggestion that real change that came not through the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King but through a Washington politician. I fundamentally disagree with that," Edwards told more than 200 people gathered at a predominantly black Baptist church in Sumter, S.C.

Right. Lyndon Johnson was just another Washington politician plying his trade.  Who needed those civil-rights laws? How dumb does Edwards think African-Americans are?  Apparently, he thinks they're as dumb as the juries who gave him all that cash.  He might look at his poll numbers and realize they're not dumb enough to vote for him.

The problem here is that race is opening up a schism among Democrats that's unhealthy for the party and worse for the country.  If Obama gets the nomination, the racial tensions will get far deeper, for the GOP will be rougher on Obama than any Democrat, no matter how mean or ambitious, can possibly be.  And the temptation for Obama's supporters to play the race card will be greater when facing the Republicans than when facing the wife of the man some African-Americans call "America's first black president."

Only one person can bring this tension down, and that is Barack Obama, and so far he has refused.  Quite the contrary.  He seems perfectly happy to stir the pot.  The New York Times's
Adam Nagourney reports:

Geraldine A. Ferraro, who was the Democratic candidate for vice president in 1984, said she thought Mr. Obama and his campaign were fanning the issue to draw black voters away from Mrs. Clinton before the primary in South Carolina, where about 50 percent of the electorate is expected to be black.  

Geraldine might be right, but Obama, a man who has always played down race in his campaigns, and has had substantial white support, certainly knows this is a two-edged sword.  He might draw some black voters, but he can create a white backlash.  This is ugly.  This is pre-sixties politics.  Obama should look at the population figures.  White backlashes are not good.  

This is what Obama must do.  First, he's got to realize it's in his interest to defuse the issue.  A broad coalition is what he needs.  Second, he must make a statement absolving Hillary Clinton of any racial sins.  Given her record, and the blandness of her statement about Lyndon Johnson, the charge of racism seems, to quote the late director Otto Preminger, "made op."  Third, he must make it clear to his supporters that every issue, for him, is on the table.  "I'm running for president of the United States," he should tell them.  "I expect to be criticized.  I expect to be asked a lot of tough questions.  I want to be judged as any other candidate is judged.  Ask me about my experience.  It's okay.  Ask me why I joined a certain church in Chicago.  It's okay.  Even ask me about my religious views and how they influence my politics.  It's okay.  I'll answer any question."

By making that kind of statement, Obama places himself above the conflict.  He becomes the statesman, not the scrapper, which is what his supporters are turning him into.  Then a real racist comment by an opponent will stick out with flashing lights.  It will also signal his supporters to cool the race talk. It's a moral and statistical loser.

He could also ask several elder statesmen of the Democratic Party to mediate.  Try to name two.

Posted on January 14, 2008.