EVENING UPDATE:

We are updating at 8:45 p.m EST.

We're following the curious confrontation between Iranian patrol boats and three major United States warships in the narrow Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Iran, on Sunday.  A small group of Iranian boats harassed the missile cruiser USS Port Royal, pictured on the right, the destroyer USS Hopper and frigate USS Ingraham.  No shots were fired, but the American ships were prepared to fire if necessary.  The Iranians "maneuvered aggressively" according to an American admiral, before breaking off, as reported by the AP here.  Iran is downplaying the incident, the United States is taking it more seriously.  The United States is correct.

We can't know what motivated the Iranians, but note that President Bush leaves for the region tomorrow, as discussed here this morning.  (See "Calling Your Attention," below.) It's hard to believe that the naval incident is unrelated.  We must plainly label this as speculation, but the Iranians have every motive to stress that they can choke the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large amount of the world's unrefined oil passes.  This message would resonate at any time, but with oil hovering around 100-dollars-a-barrel, and with gasoline at the pump well over three dollars a gallon, and with an American election approaching, and with Mr. Bush flying in, the message becomes quite a bit louder, and more annoying.  Watch news out of Iran carefully during the president's visit.

The Iranians are not without their means.     

Posted on January 7, 2008.