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ELECTION - 24 days from today

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2010

QUICK!  MAKE SURE BARACK DOESN'T SEE THIS – AT 9:04 P.M. ET:  Obama comes with enough resentments.  He doesn't need one more.  Can you imagine what they think of this at the White House?  From The Hill:

Embattled Democrats are increasingly turning to former President Bill Clinton to prop up their campaigns in the final weeks before November's midterm elections.

The former president is far and away the biggest draw for the party less than a month out, hitting races in states where Democrats would rather President Obama stay away.

With Obama's campaign schedule featuring recent stops in solidly Democratic states like California, Delaware and Maryland, it's Clinton who is helping Democrats trying to win over centrists and independents in states like West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas.

I mean, the man goes to states "where Democrats would rather President Obama stay away."  This will do wonders for Obama's relationship with his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, married in a strange sort of way to Bill.  I'll bet someone puts a tack on her chair before the next Cabinet meeting. 

Bill Clinton has been officially rehabilitated.  No one mentions Monica anymore. 

Another one who must be dyin' is Professor of Peanuts and Nobel laureate Jimmah Carter.  No one asks him to campaign, even in states where Obama can't go.  He can only get a campaigning gig overseas, preferably in a hostile country. 

GREAT MOMENT IN HISTORY:  The moment when elder statesman Bill Clinton leads a Democratic delegation to the White House in late 2011, to ask Barack Obama to step aside for the 2012 election.  Will it happen?  I think the odds are ten to one against...today.  Those odds might change.

October 9, 2010      Permalink

DISGRACEFUL – AT 8:18 A.M. ET:  As you know, Jerry Brown, the Democratic candidate for the California governorship (a position he also held decades ago, in an era of vinyl records), has been involved in an ugly incident. 

During a private discussion with aides, accidentally recorded, someone suggested that Meg Whitman, the GOP candidate, be painted as a "whore," apparently because of her stand on pensions for public workers.  Brown was heard saying that he would use that.

That was sickening enough, and the Brown campaign could manage only an anemic, half-hearted apology, issued through an aide.  What was especially outrageous was that the National Organization for Women, despite the incident, endorsed Brown yesterday.  What were they thinking?  Apparently, they weren't thinking about much of anything.  But once again we see how little interest so-called "feminist" groups have in the welfare of women.  They've become basically adjuncts of the hard political left, and front operations for the abortion-on-demand crowd.

It's very sad, because the women's movement, with all its faults, has made important contributions to women's rights, especially in the workplace.  But, at base, it was always a movement of the political left.  In recent years, it has succumbed to the leftist discipline, which places the interests of women pretty far down the line.  Note the lack of support for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries of 2008, as opposed to Barack Obama.  On the left, race always trumps gender.  It's the way things are.

These old groups are now on life support.  My guess is that new women's organizations will be formed in coming years, much more moderate, more attuned to the real issues facing women, and far removed from the rigidities of the 1960s.  And they might even show some interest in the oppression of Muslim women.

In the meantime, NOW might consider withdrawing its endorsement of Jerry Brown until he shows some contrition for that vulgar incident.  I'm not holding my breath.  After all, the slur was only against a Republican woman. 

October 9, 2010      Permalink

EVEN THE NEW YORK TIMES – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  Again we note the sin of overconfidence, but it's nice to know that even The New York Times realizes it has a ticket on a political Titanic: 

It has become fashionable to speak of a Democratic comeback, but we’re not really seeing one in our forecasting models. Certainly there are some individual races — particularly on the East and West Coasts, as well as some gubernatorial contests outside these regions — that look better for Democrats than they did a few weeks ago. But we’re showing Republicans gaining ground where they need to gain it to maintain decent chances of taking over the Senate. We also show improvement for them in the House forecast this week.

Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Moreover, they have nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats; their average gain in a typical simulation run was between 47 and 48 seats. However, the playing field remains very broad and considerably larger are possible, as are considerably smaller ones.

COMMENT:  On Tuesday we will be three weeks out from election day.  Three weeks are four lifetimes in politics.  Anything can happen, but so far the GOP has run a reasonable campaign, with a very impressive ground game – the "get out the vote" stuff. 

All will depend on turnout.  If our troops go to the polls, a smashing victory may be in prospect.  And we must convince our liberal friends of the joys of staying home on election day.  Suggest a good book, a documentary about folk singers, or even the collected speeches of George McGovern.  Who wants to go into a cramped voting booth when you can listen to Joan Baez recordings?

October 9, 2010      Permalink

DON'T FORGET THIS – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  We cautioned yesterday about taking our eyes off the foreign-policy ball during our election campaign.  Now we're reminded why:

NORTH Korea is forging ahead with work to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, which could add to its atomic arsenal and raise the risk it will sell nuclear know-how abroad, a study says.

-The report published by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) overnight came after warnings from South Korea that "North Korea's nuclear threat has progressed at a rapid pace and reached a very alarming level".

South Korea also said this week the North is restoring facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, the source of weapons-grade plutonium in the past.

In the report, Taking Stock: North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Program, authors David Albright and Paul Brannan wrote that North Korea was developing centrifuges to enrich uranium.

The program is an "avenue for North Korea to increase the number and sophistication of its nuclear weapons and for it to proliferate to others who seek to build their own centrifuge programs", the authors wrote.

COMMENT:  The proliferation issue is key.  Should North Korea become destablized as the old order passes, nuclear material and information can get loose.  There are plenty of eager buyers, even people who live in the caves of Afghanistan. 

We have made no progress with North Korea, or Iran, but the administration seems unconcerned.  It may take a shock to wake us up.  But then it will be too late.

October 9, 2010     Permalink

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2010

THE SARAH FACTOR – AT 8:51 P.M. ET:  Like her or not like her, Sarah Palin is the most intriguing political personality in America today, as we noted in an earlier post.  She is also one of the most influential.  The buzz about a possible 2012 run for the presidency is growing.

But Palin is still viewed skeptically, partly because of the unprecedented smear campaign waged against her by the media in 2008, and partly because of her own mistakes and, at times, lack of preparation.  She's improved dramatically, in my view, and is now hinting at a run for the White House.  The Politico reports:

Speaking to a group of well-connected Republicans at a private dinner in Florida this week, Sarah Palin implicitly addressed questions about her own electability by noting that critics also said Ronald Reagan couldn’t win in 1980, three attendees told POLITICO.

Palin, at an event organized by the conservative magazine Newsmax, told the right-wing crowd that those who don’t have the same convictions will always say a true conservative can’t win.

She makes a good point, of course, but please note that Ronald Reagan had been a two-term governor of our most populous state. 

Pointing out that the knock on Reagan was that he was also too far to the right, the former Alaska governor repeatedly invoked the 40th president and conservative icon, at one point citing the quotation he was most fond of: that America is a “shining city on a hill.”

“I think she sees herself as heir to Reagan,” said one attendee.

And it could turn out that way.  The Republican establishment was afraid of Reagan in 1980, and, as many readers will recall, tried to saddle him with former President Gerald Ford as his vice presidential choice, running together as a "co-presidency."  That idea, thankfully, went nowhere.

Her invoking of the Gipper at a closed-door gathering illustrates that Palin is, at the very least, thinking through how she’d make her case if she pursued the presidency. And combined with the recent revelation of an e-mail her husband, Todd, sent to Alaska Senate hopeful Joe Miller excoriating him for not saying Palin was qualified to be president, her private comments make clear that the 2008 vice-presidential candidate wants other Republicans to take her seriously as a White House prospect.

I like Sarah Palin.  I've had some doubts about her, but she has grown, she is more assertive, and I still like her.  If she runs, she'd make the 2012 race for the GOP nomination the most interesting since that great contest in 1980.  And hey, as we say in New York, yah never know.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

BUSH RESURGENT – AT 7:42 P.M. ET:  Many on our side believed President George W. Bush would gain respect as the years passed, but who knew it would happen this quickly?  From NPR:

According to a CNN/Opinion Research poll, respondents to a survey this week were essentially split on the question of who was a better president, Barack Obama or George W. Bush.

Unfortunately for Obama, he was essentially tied with Bush on that question, 47 percent to 45 percent.

A year ago, Obama had a 23-percentage point lead on that question over Bush.

Ah, those were the days, the days when college kids could chant, "Bush lied, thousands died," and be taken seriously.  All gone with the wind.

Mr. Bush will soon publish his memoirs.  And he's making public appearances:

In a rare public appearance, former President George W. Bush talked about life out of the limelight and took a jab at what the "elites" might be thinking of his upcoming book.

"I have written a book. This will come as a shock to some of the elites. They didn't think I could read a book, much less write one," Bush quipped...

...The 64-year-old said the tome gives some understanding to the decisions he made on tough issues like the handling of 9/11 and the Iraq war. The president, who has become a target of both Democrats and President Obama since he left office, refused to comment on the current state of political affairs. "You're not going to see me out opining or offering my critique. Frankly, I don't think it's good for the country to have a former president criticize his successor," Bush said.

President Obama has repeatedly blamed the "Bush-era policies" for today's lethargic economic condition.

A clear case of class versus no class, and the American voters are figuring it out.

The Bush book will be out after election, so it won't influence the vote.  But it's good to see the start of a reappraisal of the Bush administration.  It wasn't perfect, by any means.  But it wasn't the train wreck portrayed in the liberal media either.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 7:25 P.M. ET:

SOUTHAMPTON, England, Oct. 8 (UPI) -- The British charter company behind a 100-year anniversary cruise following the Titanic's path said cabins are nearly sold out for the April 2012 trip.

I would have bought a ticket, but the cruise doesn't include the iceberg.  What a gyp.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

ECONOMIC BULLETIN – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  The economy is going in reverse.  From Bloomberg:

The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in September, reflecting a decline in government payrolls that shows the damage being done by rising fiscal deficits.

Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 5,000 drop. The unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 9.6 percent.

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000, less than forecast, underscoring the concern expressed by some Federal Reserve policy makers that the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s has been too slow and may require easier monetary policy. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project unemployment will average at least 9 percent through 2011, which may restrain consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.

COMMENT:  That is a disastrous report.  How will the White House spin it?  How will any Democratic candidate explain it?  The deep recession goes on, with no end in sight. 

That is one reason why this election, now three and a half weeks away, is so critical.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

DO YOU SENSE FEAR? – AT 8:43 A.M. ET:  One of Obama's major political gurus, is speaking out on the Republican Party.  From The Politico:

The Republican Party’s tea party candidates are energizing a deflated Democratic base and could wreak havoc with the GOP’s 2012 presidential primary process, David Plouffe, the architect of President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, said Thursday.

Plouffe predicted that Republican presidential hopefuls would run to the far right to court the Sarah Palin wing of the party, which ultimately could push the GOP nominee out of the mainstream.

But as for the prospects of running against the former Alaska governor head-on, Plouffe quipped: “Something tells me we won’t get that lucky.”

COMMENT:  Do you get the feeling he's desperately afraid of her?  With all her shortcomings, Sarah Palin is the most fascinating political figure in America today.  All she has to do is put a paragraph on her Facebook page, and it's major news immediately.  Some three quarters of the candidates she endorsed in GOP primaries won their races.

Sarah's negatives are high, too high for a national race.  But they can be brought down over time.  She's gotten better and more confident as a speaker.  With some careful maneuvering, she can energize what used to be called "the forgotten American." 

Plouffe, be careful what you wish for.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

WE HOPE THIS ISN'T TRUE – 8:25 A.M. ET:  Another Florida story.  Is there any limit to the cynicism in politics?  From The Wall Street Journal:

TAMPA -- Republican leaders in the Sunshine State are fretting that a deal may be in the works to get Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek out of the Florida Senate race in order to boost Charlie Crist's flagging chances of beating Republican Marco Rubio.

You may recall that Crist, the incumbent governor, was a Republican until it was clear he'd lose the GOP primary for the US Senate to Rubio.  Then, poof, he became an independent and we have a three-way race.

Across the state, groups such as Palm Beach Democrats for Crist and Tampa Democrats for Crist are emerging. Republican fears are further stoked by the almost universal acknowledgment that Mr. Meek has almost no chance to win. Statewide polling has his support in the teens and falling. His money coffers are all but dry. Democrats had hoped that when Mr. Crist abandoned the GOP for an independent run, it would split the Republican vote and propel Mr. Meek into the winner's circle. With four weeks to go, no one believes that now. Mr. Meek, who is African-American, polls strongly only with black voters.

Meanwhile, Mr. Crist is striving to assemble a center-left coalition by winning over Democratic voters. His latest mailing throughout the state was titled "Ten Reasons Democrats Should Vote for Charlie Crist." On issues from health care to taxes, Mr. Crist has moved dramatically to the left.

Does Crist have any principles left?  Any?  Aside from "elect me"?

Mr. Crist has also refused to say which party he would caucus with if he wins. His latest nonanswer: "I will caucus with the people." But Mr. Crist has met privately with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, adding to GOP paranoia that Democrats may be getting ready to throw the sure loser Mr. Meek over the side. One Republican Party leader tells me he wouldn't be surprised to hear suddenly that "Meek was offered an ambassadorship from Barack Obama."

If Meek pulls out and his votes go to Crist, Crist could defeat Rubio, then announce he's a Democrat.  That assumes, however, that Floridians accept Crist's self-promotion and cynicism.  It also assumes that virtually all of Meek's voters, heavily African American, are willing to see their man thrown overboard.  I doubt if blacks would march to Crist's tune simply because someone asks them too.

Still, a Meek pullout could put Rubio's win in jeopardy, and Rubio is a major, rising Republican star.

October 8, 2010    Permalink

END OF A BULLY? – AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  Bigmouth Alan Grayson is perhaps the most despised freshman in the House of Representatives.  The Florida Democrat has become famous for his poor taste and lack of minimal adult self-control.  He recently created an uproar when he took snippets of a speech by his GOP opponent, Dan Webster, and ran them out of context, making Webster "say" the opposite of what he was actually saying, and sound like a religious extremist.  It was typical Grayson, as The Washington Examiner points out:

Grayson has been involved in so many dust-ups, scrapes and other indignities that it's surprising to realize he has only been in office 20 months. From describing the Republican health plan as hoping the sick will "die quickly" to calling a top official at the Federal Reserve a "K Street whore" to saying of former Vice President Dick Cheney that "blood ... drips from his teeth while he's talking" to "Taliban Dan" -- well, a lot of people in Florida and Washington won't be sad to see him go.

And he might just be going:

A poll taken by Sunshine State News at the time of the ad controversy showed Webster with a 7-point lead, 43 percent to 36 percent. Barring any unforeseen events, that's likely to hold. The 8th District was Republican for almost 30 years, until the Obama-Grayson victories of 2008. Now it appears to be moving back to the GOP.

There are occasionally sweet moments in politics, and seeing this obnoxious fool Grayson defeated would be one of them.  By the way, he has an absolutely stellar academic history, which shows once again that high grades and common sense don't always fit together.

You can get a taste of Grayson on YouTube here.  Take seasickness pills first.

October 8, 2010     Permalink