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ELECTION - 20 days from today

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2010

MEANWHILE, IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 8:09 P.M. ET:   While we're fighting our campaign, events in the Middle East are troubling.  Hezbollah, a terrorist organization and one of the most dangerous groups in the world, is driving to take over Lebanon, once seen as a moderate state.

To help Hezbollah's henchmen do their black magic, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is making a guest appearance in Lebanon this week.  Reader Joseph J. Gallick refers us to this story, from the Wall Street Journal:

BEIRUT—Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived to cheers from crowds of adoring Lebanese Shiites in this Arab nation for his first state visit, a trip seen as a move to bolster Tehran's ally, Hezbollah.

Just what we need – Ahmadinejad and his friends on the border of Israel, and taking over a nominal ally of the United States like Lebanon.

The trip comes amid growing political tension with the group's pro-Western partners in a delicate coalition government and has put the region on a tense footing. Mr. Ahmadinejad is expected to visit southern Lebanon later this week, perhaps venturing as far as the tense border with Israel. That frontier was the site of a deadly border clash between Israeli and Lebanese forces as recently as August.

That incident sharply raised regional tensions and heightened worry in the U.S. that Lebanon's independent—and partially U.S.-funded—military is being influenced by Hezbollah, the Shiite political and militant group supported by Iran and Syria.

Tens of thousands of middle-class Shiites, workers, children and students alike heeded the call by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to greet the Iranian leader and thank him for the hundreds of millions of dollars funneled from Iran to Shiite communities here after years of discrimination by Lebanese leaders. Underscoring the sectarian divide here, Beirut's main thoroughfares and streets leading through Shiite neighborhoods were lined with slick posters and homemade signs greeting the Iranian leader. In comparison, streets were bare of such adornment in Sunni neighborhoods and other sectarian enclaves elsewhere in Lebanon.

COMMENT:  Do the words "civil war" ring a bell?  Lebanon has fought those wars, bitterly, in the past, and the country looks ripe for another round of civil strife, with Iran dictating the moves on the Hezbollah side. 

Oh, didn't Mr. Obama wage a major "outreach" campaign in this part of the world?  Results, please?  Results are zero.

Your move, Mr. President.  The election will be over in three weeks.  International turmoil will go on a bit longer.

If Hezbollah takes over Lebanon, I believe it will be the first time an officially designated terrrorist group controls an entire country.  Not change we can believe in.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

REVERSAL IN WASHINGTON STATE – AT 7:43 P.M. ET:  A new series of polls puts Patty Murray, non-accomplishing Democratic senator from Washington, well ahead of GOP challenger Dino Rossi.  A week ago Rossi looked like he was essentially even with Murray, widely considered one of the weakest members of the Senate. 

The reason for Murray's advance?  One solidly reported story today said that Murray is going strongly after the women's vote, and emphasizing Rossi's pro-life stance.  Murray is right out of the 1960s, and apparently believes that abortion is the big issue.  In a so-called "progressive" (read "regressive") state like Washington, she may, sadly, be right.  She's now 30 points ahead among women, and it's hard to see how Rossi can counter that.

In fact, in the so-called toss up states, where Senate races are very tight, the odds are against Republicans because these states are fundamentally Democratic.  Carly Fiorina is still running behind Barbara Boxer, twin sister in non-accomplishment with Patty Murray, in California.  And in West Virginia, a race that looked as if it was leaning toward the GOP is now dead even, with popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin now gaining on GOP challenger John Raese.  Machin is trying to distance himself from the deadly unpopular Barack Obama, and is running an ad showing him shooting – with a real shootin' iron – at a target meant to represent Obama policies.

So we wait.  Right now the best prognosticators have the Republicans winding up with 48 senators on election day, and, if the present trend continues, that may just be right.  But we have three weeks to go, and GOP ad blitzes are coming.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

MAJOR WHITE HOUSE ACT OF DIPLOMACY – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  Gotta hand it to Obama.   When he wants expertise, he certainly knows where to turn.  From CNN:

(CNN) - Actor George Clooney paid a visit to the White House on Tuesday to meet with President Barack Obama and discuss his recent trip to southern Sudan.

Joining Clooney in the Oval Office meeting was Enough Project Co-Founder John Prendergast, who joined him outside of the West Wing after the meeting to talk to press.

Clooney said, "I think we're very impressed with how involved, at the highest level, this administration is and now our job is to try and continue to keep it in the press and keep it, to keep the light turned on for the next 90 days while we try and broker a peace deal, which is what they're working on right now."

While "we" try to broker a peace deal?  Does Clooney's agent know he's doing this?  Is he guaranteed a percentage of Sudan's gross profits?  Will the credit read, "Peace deal by George Clooney, from an idea by Barack Obama?"

The actor was heading to Capitol Hill to meet with Republican Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

COMMENT:  Do you get the feeling it's amateur night in Washington?

But you can reserve seats now.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:

GEORGETOWN, Ga., Oct. 12 (UPI) -- A Georgia man caught cheating on his girlfriend said he is completing a list of six tasks she set for him to win back her heart.  Greg Tracy, 22, a soldier stationed at Hunter Army Airfield, said he stood on a Georgetown street corner Sunday for an hour wearing a "Scooby Doo" hat and holding a sign detailing his transgression and labeling himself a "dog," the Savannah Morning News reported Tuesday.  "I lied and cheated," Tracy said. "I have a list of things I have to do to win her back."

Let's get this woman working for us.  She knows how to treat members of Congress.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

CHALK ONE UP FOR THE PRESIDENT – AT 9:05 A.M. ET:   We're happy to rush in with the report that President Obama has one solid accomplishment to his credit.  He is making Americans nostalgic for George Bush.  John Fund of The Wall Street Journal gives us the remarkable revelation, and quotes Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg:

"Though voters agree the economy was an 'inherited' problem, they do not like to hear politicians blaming Bush or looking backwards," he concluded in his study. In an interview with Jane Hamsher of the blog Firedog Lake, Mr. Greenberg went on to say: "I'm really puzzled by Democratic leaders stuck in a message that demonstrably doesn't work." He puts it down to the president listening to economic advisers who want him to set a rhetorical tone that "will help confidence to come back."

But so far the only thing that seems to be coming back is nostalgia for George W. Bush. A new CNN poll finds voters still believe Mr. Obama is a better president than Mr. Bush was, but by only 47% to 45%. That's down from a whopping 23-point margin last year. "Democrats would be wise to think twice before bringing up the name of President Bush on the campaign trail this fall," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

COMMENT:  We expected a political resurrection for Mr. Bush, but not this soon.  We thought the timing might be more Trumanesque – it took Mr. Truman some years to become popular again, after leaving the White House.  And look at Dick Cheney.  He packs 'em in wherever he goes, and just announced a new speaking tour.

President Bush will publish his memoir right after the election.  I suspect his popularity will increase even more.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

FASCINATING DISTRICT IN OUR "ROGUE" STATE – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  The Obama administration seems to be engaged in a war against only one sovereign state in the world – Arizona.  And it actually got help from an Arizona congressman.  What is happening to that guy?  Michael Barone reports:

Amazing! Here’s a poll (by a firm unknown to me) showing Republican challenger Ruth McClung leading four–term Democratic incumbent Raul Grijalva 39%-37% in Arizona 7. This district was designed to be Arizona’s second Hispanic majority House district (it was 54% Hispanic in 2000) and to be safe Democratic (it voted 57%-42% for Barack Obama in 2008 and 57%-43% for John Kerry in 2004). So it would be amazing if rocket scientist McClung (yes, apparently she actually is a rocket scientist) won here.

What’s interesting here is that Grijalva has supported the tourist boycott of Arizona in retaliation for the passage of Senate Bill 1070 which he, like Barack Obama, has portrayed as a grievous violation of civil liberties.  Apparently some voters in Arizona 7 don’t want their state boycotted.

The Democrats treat Hispanics the same way they treat African-Americans:  They believe they'll vote for anyone of their ethnic group and blindly follow the party.  The various Hispanic communities, however, are developing quite an independent streak, and the Democratic attitude of "they're in our pocket" may be in for a rude shock.

Latest polling from Arizona indicates that the GOP can conceivably make a solid dent in the Arizona House delegation, currently 5-3 Democratic. 

October 13, 2010      Permalink

POLLING LATEST – AT 8:17 A.M. ET:  From The Hill:

Republicans are winning eight out of 10 competitive open House seats surveyed in a groundbreaking new poll by The Hill.

Taken on top of 11 GOP leads out of 12 freshman Democratic districts polled last week, The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll points toward 19 Republican victories out of 22 races, while Democrats win only two and one is tied.

This is part of a continuing series of Hill polls.  The result thus far...

...suggests a string of important pickup victories by the GOP in the midterm election just three weeks away.

Republican candidates have taken big leads in two districts Democrats have held for nearly a century and a half-century, respectively, according to The Hill’s survey. A Republican is also ahead in the heavily Democratic district that contains President Obama’s hometown of Honolulu.

Many races are tight — 12 of the 22 fall within the margin of error — but the margins, though slim, preponderantly favor the GOP.

COMMENT:  Absolutely remarkable.  Not to be a party pooper, but I want to point out the number of races falling within the margin of error...demonstrating the need to keep fighting and campaigning up until the last minute.  We can smile at the trend, but the smile will be wider if it's confirmed on election night.

October 13, 2010     Permalink

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2010

NEW TERROR THREAT – AT 8:40 P.M. ET:  This should not come as a total shock, as the same terror method has been used throughout Europe and in Israel for years.  But now a major terror group wants us to get our share.  From the New York Daily News:

WASHINGTON - The terror group tied to the Ft. Hood killings and the Christmas Day undies airbomber urge wannabe American jihadis to open fire on crowded restaurants in the nation's capital to massacre U.S. government workers.

The advice appears in "Inspire," the latest issue of a slick propaganda publication by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Osama Bin Laden's franchise in Yemen.

"A random hit at a crowded restaurant in Washington, D.C., at lunch hour might end up knocking out a few government employees," Yahya Ibrahim writes in the 74-page jihadi how-to magazine.

"Targeting such employees is paramount and the location would also give the operation additional media attention," Ibrahim added.

Other trash talk came from "Samir Khan," an American who came to AQAP from North Carolina, who produces the publication and wrote that he is "proud to be a traitor in America's eyes."

"This guy is bad news, and given the fact that he helps publish AQAP trash, he certainly spreads a lot of it around, too," said a senior U.S. official.

COMMENT:  Should be taken very seriously.  These small operations can be carried out by one man with a suicide belt.  The result of a successful attack would be sheer terror in Washington, and the need for retail establishments to hire security guards, a commonplace in Israel. 

And, of course, Yahya Ibrahim is right - you get a lot of press in Washington.

We have been generally lucky so far, with exceptions like the horror at Fort Hood.  We won't be lucky forever.

October 12, 2010      Permalink

GUARDED OPTIMISM – AT 7:12 P.M. ET:  Republicans are expressing cautious satisfaction as new polls show some, we repeat, some progress toward possible control of the U.S. Senate.  Fox reports:

The race for the Senate continues to heat up as Republicans lead for two seats currently held by Democrats -- Nevada and Washington -- while another Republican has closed into striking distance for an open seat in Connecticut.

Republican Linda McMahon has taken a bite out of Democrat Richard Blumenthal's lead in Connecticut while her fellow GOPers Dino Rossi and Sharron Angle cling to slim leads over entrenched Democrats in Washington state and Nevada.

With just three weeks to go, control of the U.S. Senate may hang on a handful of ballots in these key states.

The latest surveys were conducted on Oct. 9 by Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News. Each survey included 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 points.

In Connecticut, GOP wrestling lady Linda McMahon has pulled to within six points of state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, from ten a week ago.  Can Linda close the gap?  Connecticut will report early on election night, and a horse race there can really warm up the evening.

Sharron Angle, who has now raised a ton of cash, holds on to a two-point lead over Harry Reid in Nevada.  No one is calling this yet.

Dino Rossi has pulled ahead of Patty Murray, but only by a point, in Washington.  Again, too close to call.

Republican Rob Portman has a 17-point lead in Ohio, and that seat will remain in GOP hands.

Delaware is lost, period.  Christine O'Donnell, a lovely and affecting young woman, has been Palinized by the press and by some retrogrades in her own party, and is making no progress.  I'd like to have someone send in the name of a liberal woman who's been treated this way.  Please note that the press has a special knife out for attractive conservative women, like Sarah, Christine, and Michelle Bachmann.  Is this some kind of resentment, or what?

On balance, though, the GOP is holding its own or advancing, if slowly.  But we have three weeks to go, and there is nothing certain.  RealClearPolitics has the Senate tied at 48-48, with four toss ups.  I could give you a scenario where all four toss ups go Democratic, or Republican. 

Republicans will make gains in the Senate.  Control of the Senate will go down to the wire.

October 12, 2010      Permalink

SOME GOOD NEWS FROM AFGHANISTAN – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  That in itself is unusual.  It's good to report something positive from that difficult war.  From Rowan Scarborough at the Washington Times: 

The U.S. military is starting to see signs that the troop surge in Afghanistan is working on a timetable similar to the Iraq reinforcement campaign in 2007, according to an outside adviser and military sources.

"There are already some early signs of a beginning of a momentum shift in our favor," retired Army Gen. Jack Keane told The Washington Times.

Gen. Keane just returned from a two-week tour of the battlefield, where the focus is on ousting the Taliban from Kandahar, its birthplace, as well as from Helmand province and other southern and eastern areas.

Gen. Keane reported his findings to Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Kabul, who saw the surge of 30,000 troops completed in August, placing about 100,000 American service members in country.

An architect of the Bush administration's surge of troops in Iraq, Gen. Keane advised Gen. Petraeus when he was the top commander there.

Gen. Keane told The Times he has witnessed in Afghanistan the same shift in fortunes: Taliban fighters are changing sides, villages are being cleansed of the enemy and protected, and intercepted communications show flagging Taliban morale.

COMMENT:  Keane is a solid guy who refused to get pessimistic in Iraq.  While some might say he has a vested interest in finding the good news, I think he's sophisticated enough about PR to know that these reports can't be sensationalized.  I'd take him seriously.

If we start to succeed in Afghanistan, I wonder who'll get the credit?  Obama will take it.  He's already tried to take credit for Iraq, but the irony is that such chest thumping will alienate his own base even further.  The Democratic left-wing base never met an American victory it liked.

October 12, 2010      Permalink

MR. POPULARITY ISN'T – AT 8:37 A.M. ET:  We want all American presidents to succeed – country first – but I don't think I've ever seen a faster fall from grace than that suffered by Mr. Obama.  Andrew Malcolm of the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog, has details on a new, and stunning survey:

Nearly half the people who once considered themselves supporters of President Barack Obama don't anymore...

...A new poll released today by Bloomberg News finds all that hopey-changey stuff is rapidly turning to disappointment and disenchantment. While 47% of all voters approve of Obama's job now, ominously for 2012 only 36% of onetime Obama supporters now approve. Feeling jilted?

Someone named Hillary Clinton is now viewed favorably by fully 64% of Americans, even more than like Obama's wife.

Of course, Obama is on no ballot three weeks from today. But Republicans appear to ...

... be succeeding in making the Democrat's first midterm election -- a time of traditional defeat anyway for the party of the White House occupant -- into a referendum on the Illinois guy.

Something about a stubborn national unemployment rate of 9.6% despite $700+ billion in non-stimulating stimulus spending and promises to keep the jobless rate below 8%.

Something about consecutive federal deficits of $1,291,000,000,000 and $1,416,000,000,000 despite that campaign promise to go through the budget line by line. Something about a controversial healthcare bill that a near-majority of Americans would like repealed.

COMMENT:  Yeah, spot on.  In 1994, after the smashing Republican midterm victory, the leftist anchorman, Peter Jennings, announced that Americans had experienced a temper tantrum.  When Dems lose, according to the Jennings camp, it's always a result of some character flaw or temporary emotional defect in the American people.

It wasn't a temper tantrum, it was a judgment.  That judgment is being made again.  As Andrew Malcolm points out, there are rational reasons for it, not illusions.  The president has ignored the people, and even showed contempt for them, their views, and their culture.  The people are responding, with ballots.  No teleprompters.

October 12, 2010      Permalink

WHERE NO REPUBLICAN DARED TO GO BEFORE – AT 8:15 A.M. ET:   Republicans are not generally seen as bold.  This year they've become bold.  From The New York Times:

ST. CLAIRSVILLE, Ohio — Republicans are expanding the battle for the House into districts that Democrats had once considered relatively safe, while Democrats began a strategy of triage on Monday to fortify candidates who they believe stand the best chance of survival.

Among Democrats, triage will now be called "allocating resources to insure the growth of cultural diversity."

As Republicans made new investments in at least 10 races across the country, including two Democratic seats here in eastern Ohio, Democratic leaders took steps to pull out of some races entirely or significantly cut their financial commitment in several districts that the party won in the last two election cycles.

Representatives Steve Driehaus of Ohio, Suzanne M. Kosmas of Florida and Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania were among the Democrats who learned that they would no longer receive the same infusion of television advertising that party leaders had promised. Party strategists conceded that these races and several others were slipping out of reach.

With three weeks remaining to save its majority, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has increased its spending on two New York races, along with at-risk seats in Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky and Massachusetts, setting up a map of competitive districts that is starkly different from when the campaign began.

When Dems have to increase their spending in New York and Massachusetts, you know they're in trouble.  But in New York, weak Republican gubernatorial and senatorial candidates are turning two competitive races into giveaways.  That's not good, but the national picture is promising.

October 12, 2010       Permalink

RELAX, AND FIGHT – AT 8:06 A.M. ET:  So, we're three weeks away from the election.  What does that mean?  It means nothing.

Three weeks are four lifetimes in politics.  The idea at this point is never to relax, never to assume anything, for anything can happen.  Many of the most important races in the country are very close.  The Democrats are fighting desperately, and making wild charges about sinister "foreign money" entering the campaign.  You know those foreigners.  Gotta watch 'em. 

At this stage the GOP, if present trends continue, stands a good chance to capture the House, and has at least a shot at the Senate.  But beware the October surprise.  In particular, beware the surprise from a president schooled in the ways of Chicago politics.  This race can get very ugly.

So relax, and fight.  We're not winding down anything.

October 12, 2010     Permalink