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ELECTION - TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY

Here's the link to my appearance yesterday on Silvio Canto Jr's great talk show, "The Conservative Hispanic."

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2010

EARLY TRENDS – AT 8:28 P.M. ET:  A record number of Americans are voting in this election through early ballot programs.  Indeed, observers estimate that as many as 40% of the votes in many races will be cast before election day. 

There are some early indications of how people are voting.  From The Politico:  

Early-voting numbers out of Nevada’s two biggest counties could spell trouble for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in his tough contest against Republican Sharron Angle.

In Reno’s Washoe County and Las Vegas’s Clark County, Republican turnout was disproportionately high over the first three voting days, according to local election officials. The two counties together make up 86 percent of the state’s voter population...

...Some 47 percent of early voters in the bellwether Washoe County so far have been Republicans, while 40 percent have been Democrats, according to the Washoe County Registrar. Nearly 11,000 people had voted in Washoe over the first three days of early voting, which began Saturday.

And this, too, from the Charlotte Observer:

The largest group of early voters in North Carolina is made up of white Republican men, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Democracy North Carolina, a campaign watchdog group.

During the 2008 Democratic sweep, black Democratic women led all groups during the 17 days of early voting. But during the first three days of early voting this year, it is white Republican men.

"Early voting doesn't favor one party or another, but reveals who's most organized and enthusiastic about making their voices heard," said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina.

So far early voting has been especially heavy for a midterm election.

COMMENT:  So far, early trends should make us cautiously smile.  Turnout is clearly the key.  There are some races where our guys are behind by three or four points – California, Washington state – but numbers like that can be made up by turnout.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

PENNSYLVANIA POKER – AT 7:59 P.M. ET:  There is a raft of new polls out today, published since our morning posts, and for the most part they confirm the trends we've seen.  But one, unfortunately, does not.

Pennsylvania has looked for months like an almost sure thing for the GOP in the race for the Senate between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak.  In a strongly Democratic state, Toomey has led polls by as much as ten points.  But a PPP poll out today has Sestak ahead be one.

Pennsylvania is known for close Senate races, and just about everyone expected the gap in the Toomey-Sestak race to narrow, but this is a little too close for comfort.  Toomey is a superb Republican candidate – thoughtfully conservative, knowledgeable and solid.  Congressman Joe Sestak is one of those Democrats I'd least like to see in the U.S. Senate.  He is a former Navy vice admiral, which ordinarily would make me supportive, but his separation from the Navy has been clouded.  He himself says he left voluntarily to take care of a sick daughter – you wonder when they start dragging in the kids – but too many others have told other stories of his being eased out for me to rest assured.  As a congressman, Sestak always seemed a bit too slick, and always too willing to wave his Navy uniform before the voters.

Steve Hayes, superlative young journalist and writer for the Weekly Standard, said on Fox News earlier this evening that there were problems in the PPP poll, and that it tilted toward the Democratic side.  I certainly hope so.  I'd hate to lose this one. 

We'll be watching Pennsylvania very closely.  It reports early in the evening on election day, and I don't want to see any smirks on the part of those "neutral" network anchors.

October 19, 2010     Permalink

HE JUST DOESN'T LIKE US – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Have you ever seen anything like it?  A president who doesn't like his country, or his people?  Can anyone, any longer, doubt that this is the case with Barack Hussein Obama Jr.?  Why does he get away with it?  Because many in the mainstream media feel the same way he does about America.

Michael Gerson, in the Washington Post, analyzes our above-us president, in today's must-read: 

"Part of the reason that our politics seems so tough right now," he recently told a group of Democratic donors in Massachusetts, "and facts and science and argument [do] not seem to be winning the day all the time is because we're hard-wired not to always think clearly when we're scared. And the country is scared."

Let's unpack these remarks.

Obama clearly believes that his brand of politics represents "facts and science and argument." His opponents, in disturbing contrast, are using the more fearful, primitive portion of their brains. Obama views himself as the neocortical leader -- the defender, not just of the stimulus package and health-care reform but also of cognitive reasoning. His critics rely on their lizard brains -- the location of reptilian ritual and aggression. Some, presumably Democrats, rise above their evolutionary hard-wiring in times of social stress; others, sadly, do not.

Though there is plenty of competition, these are some of the most arrogant words ever uttered by an American president.

We warned and warned during the 2008 campaign that this is the way the guy is, but our warnings were ignored.  The media sold Obama to the American people as a brilliant, "post-racial" president, which he is not.

Interpreting Obama does not require psychoanalysis or the reading of mystic Chicago runes. He is an intellectual snob.

And...

This is not just a political problem; it is a governing challenge. There is fear out there in America -- not because of the lizard brain but because of objective economic conditions. And a reactionary populism can be disturbing when it targets minorities, immigrants and intellectuals. But intellectual disdain among elites feeds this destructive populism rather than directing or defusing it. Obama is helping to cause what he criticizes.

I'm glad Gerson wrote that.  Self-proclaimed intellectuals often cause their own political destruction.

One response to social stress doesn't help at all: telling people their fears result from primitive irrationality. Obama may think that many of his fellow citizens can't reason. But they can still vote.

Yes we can!  And we will!

We had another president who thought he was just a bit above us.  His name was Jimmah Carter, and he also thought he was a direct conduit from God.  He was escorted from the executive mansion after one term.  We don't know how God explained it to him.

Two more years of Barack Obama, we hope.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

MORE FROM THE MULTICULTURALISM FRONT – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:   Once again we urge you not to be judgmental, not to think, not to feel, not to be anything but accepting, and a little brain dead.  From the Dallas Morning News:

A prominent Islamic scholar who has battled accusations of extremist beliefs has been arrested along with his wife on federal charges that they married other people to get U.S. citizenship.

I am shocked.  Quickly, my pills. 

Ibrahim Abdelrahman Dremali and Safaa Rashad Eissa were arrested by immigration agents, Arlington police and the FBI on Oct. 6 on a warrant out of Des Moines, Iowa. They were released on their own recognizance after appearing before a federal judge in Fort Worth the same day.

They are scheduled to enter pleas Nov. 12 in Iowa on charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States, which can carry a five-year sentence, and procurement of citizenship or naturalization unlawfully, which can result in 10 to 25 years in prison.

Dremali, who earned degrees in geology and Islamic law in Cairo, immigrated to the U.S. in 1989 and has served as an imam, or Muslim spiritual leader, in south Florida, Iowa and Austin and worked at Islamic schools.

This summer, he and his wife moved to a house on Virginia Lane near the Islamic Society of Arlington, where he helped lead a local Islamic school.

COMMENT:  Read the whole story.  Another gem comes to America.  This is actually an illegal immigration case, and I wonder if it's the tip of the iceberg.

But how will Janet Napolitano label it?  A manmade disaster?  It's a marriage scam.  Maybe she'll call it a couple-made disaster.  Or a caterer-made disaster.  Or...a good thing misinterpreted by dumb Americans who don't understand what Obama is doing. 

We look forward to the explanation at the next court date.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

TWO WEEKS TO GO – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  Now it gets really interesting.

If there's one thing I've noticed in examining the trends and polls it's that the election seems frozen in place.  There's been very little movement in most of the key races.  Sharron Angle appears to have gained a bit in her battle against Harry Reid, and Christine O'Donnell appears to have advanced a little against whoever she's running against in Delaware.  But there's been no jolt. 

Will that remain?  Pollsters say that the people begin seriously concentrating on the race in the last two weeks, but I wonder if that's true this time.  This midterm has attracted more attention, and more passion, than any other in memory.  I think the two-week rule may be history in, well, two weeks.

There are reports that Republicans are already preparing to govern the legislative branch, and are determined to build a record of solid accomplishment to bring to the American people in 2012.  That is good.  Lack of preparation for actual governing has often been the curse of both parties.  And presidents rejected in their first midterm have a way of climbing back and winning their next election.  Bill Clinton did.  Ronald Reagan did.  And FDR did.  Many don't realize it, but President Roosevelt took a thumping in the 1942 midterms, only 11 months after Pearl Harbor, with his party losing 45 votes in the House and eight in the Senate.  But Mr. Roosevelt was elected for a fourth term two years later.

So don't count Obama out.  Even if the Democrats lose big in two weeks, Obama might get himself reelected in 2012 if the GOP falters in its new power in Congress, or fails to put up a strong presidential candidate. 

The fight is ongoing.  Never stop.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

NO SHOCK HERE – AT 8:27 A.M. ET:  This is why there's a revolt against Washington going on in the country right now.  From The Politico:

Washington elites have little faith that tea party candidates will be able to bring change and say grass-roots conservatives have been the most negative in spreading their message, according to a new POLITICO poll released Tuesday.

Washingtonians involved in the political or policy process believe overwhelmingly that tea party candidates will not “be able to bring change to Washington.” Only 11 percent of D.C. insiders polled said they thought the tea party could bring change, compared with 77 percent who did not.

And...

The poll, the fourth in the six-month “Power and the People” series, shows a disconnect between how the tea party is viewed in Washington and how it is viewed in the rest of the country.

COMMENT:  The problem, of course, is that Washington thinks it is the country.  This reminds me of the classic New Yorker cover depicting the view of America from New York:  There is Manhattan, looking west to a tiny sliver of land called the United States, and then off to a vast Pacific Ocean.

Sorry to say it, being a New Yorker, but that's the way many people see it here, and that view exists in Washington as well. 

Corrective coming on November 2nd.

October 19, 2010     Permalink

MONDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2010

GOP GALLUPING – AT 7:51 P.M. ET:  Gallup's generic congressional preference survey is showing remarkable stability, with Republicans smiling.

Among likely voters, if the turnout is low, Gallup has Republicans chosen by 56%, Democrats by 39%.

Among likely voters, if the turnout is high, Gallup has Republicans chosen by 53%, Democrats by 42%.

Those numbers have been virtually unchanged for three weeks, possibly meaning that the electorate is becoming locked in place.  The numbers are spectacularly good for Republicans, whether in a low- or high-turnout scenario.

From 1950 through 1966, Republicans never got above 50%. 

The prospects are good, but remember that races are run one by one.  We have reason to be cautiously optimistic.

October 18, 2010      Permalink

THE ANNALS OF JUSTICE – AT 7:15 P.M. ET:   We remind ourselves that, while we fight an election campaign, the rest of the world moves on...or moves backward.  We eagerly await the reaction of "human rights" and "feminist" groups to the following exalted ruling from the world of Islam:

The UAE's (United Arab Emirates) highest judicial body says a man can beat his wife and young children as long as the beating leaves no physical marks.

The decision by the Federal Supreme Court shows the strong influence of Islamic law in the Emirates despite its international appeal in which foreign residents greatly outnumber the local population.

The court made the ruling earlier this month in the case of a man who left cuts and bruises on his wife and adult daughter after a beating.

It says the man was guilty of harming the women but noted that Islamic codes allow for "discipline" if no marks are left. It also says children who have reached "adulthood" -- approximately puberty -- cannot be struck.

Don't you admire a man who is so capable that he can beat his wife without leaving a mark?  Boy, whose accomplished Muslims.  I'm so impressed. 

The "human rights" and "feminist" groups referenced above are silent so far.  Why am I not shocked?

October 18, 2010      Permalink

MR. OBAMA MIGHT OCCASIONALLY REMAIN SILENT – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:   There is much buzz about the interview with President Obama in the Sunday New York Times.   The Times's fine reporter, Peter Baker, conducted the interview.  Mr. Obama, as Scott Johnson of Power Line points out, does not come off particularly well:

Yesterday I got around to reading Peter Baker's New York Times Magazine article "The education of a president" in hard copy. One comes away from the article with the uncomfortable feeling that Obama thinks he's just too damned good for us.

Baker's article made news in the middle of last week as a result of Obama's acknowledgment that he didn't know "shovel-ready" from a hole in the ground (to borrow the formulation of Mickey Kaus). In other words, he wasn't lying to us when he sold us his trillion-dollar "stimulus" bill of goods. He just didn't know what he was talking about.

That pretty much sums it up.  From The Times interview: 

When Obama secured the Democratic nomination in June 2008, he told an admiring crowd that someday "we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on earth."

I read that line to Obama and asked how his high-flying rhetoric sounded in these days of low-flying governance. "It sounds ambitious," he agreed. "But you know what? We've made progress on each of those fronts."

Oh really?  Yeah, I see all those good jobs for the jobless.  And caring for the sick has been turned into the shambles of Obamacare.  The planet is healing?  Obama doesn't even seem aware of the serious scientific debate over "climate change," and whether we're being sold a bill of goods by "experts."  Ending a war?  Securing our nation?  Anyone feel more secure out there?

Our image?  Sure, the adolescents around the world still love Obama, but not the United States.  Our enemies, of course, love him because he's weakened this nation and its resolve.  What an accomplishment. 

It's pretty sad.  Obama's interview is self-indicting.  He's everything, and less, that we thought he is.

October 18, 2010      Permalink

MERKEL'S REMARKABLE ADMISSION – AT 9:10 A.M. ET:  German Chancellor Angela Merkel has admitted what most people already know, but are afraid to say – that multiculturalism in her country, and, by extension, many other countries, has failed.  A number of Urgent Agenda readers referred us to this story, from BBC:

The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel: "lmmigrants should learn to speak German."

Attempts to build a multicultural society in Germany have "utterly failed," Chancellor Angela Merkel says.

She said the so-called "multikulti" concept - where people would "live side-by-side" happily - did not work, and immigrants needed to do more to integrate - including learning German.

The comments come amid rising anti-immigration feeling in Germany.

A recent survey suggested more than 30% of people believed the country was "overrun by foreigners."

The study - by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation think-tank - also showed that roughly the same number thought that some 16 million of Germany's immigrants or people with foreign origins had come to the country for its social benefits.

Germans must be very careful about this kind of talk because of their sordid past, and indeed the German population is becoming one of the most anti-Israel in Europe.  But the frustration over the failure of Muslim immigrants to integrate and become German is legitimate. 

The notion that multiculturalism has failed is going to spread.  The Netherlands is in immediate danger of losing its cultural heritage, and Britain and France face the same danger. 

The Merkel comments are part of an international discussion on the nature of immigration, and what reasonable rules can be applied.  We are having that discussion here, centered on attempts by Arizona to deal with illegal immigrants.  The demagogues of the left, of course, immediately label anyone who raises questions about immigration as "racist," the standard leftist charge.  But, increasingly, thoughtful people are ignoring the taunt and insisting on sane standards for immigration and reasonable demands that can be placed on immigrants.

Merkel's comments will touch a nerve, but we'll be hearing more leaders expressing her point of view.

October 18, 2010     Permalink

ELECTION LATEST – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  We'll be at the two-weeks-to-go mark tomorrow.  We expect new polls later today.  Two late polls have already been published by RealClearPolitics:

In New York, Andrew Cuomo is running away with the governorship.  A New York Times poll has him 35 points ahead of pathetic GOP nominee Carl Paladino, a rich guy with a very big mouth and a very small brain.  A hothead, Paladino has run the worst campaign for a major office that I've ever seen.  Forget him.  He's gone.  And it's sad, because, in this year in particular, the race could have been competitive.

Ah, but in Massachusetts, incompetent Dem Governor Deval Patrick, nicknamed Coupe Deval because of his lavish spending, is, according to Scott Rasmussen, only five points ahead of Republican Charlie Baker in the Scott Brown state.  Five points can be made up in the last two weeks of the campaign, and we're hoping that Republican enthusiasm will cause an upset in this blue state, one of the first to report on election night.

We'll be looking closely at Senate polls in the most competitive states – Illinois, California, Washington, Colorado, and maybe a few more.  The race is far from over.

October 18, 2010      Permalink

ONCE MORE, FROM EUROPE – AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  Once more, we have a terror warning focused on Europe, confirmed by a high European official.  This one originates in Saudi Arabia, and when the Saudis warn about terror, they generally know what they're talking about.  From Fox:

PARIS -- Saudi intelligence services have warned of a new terror threat from Al Qaeda against Europe, particularly in France, Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux said Sunday.

He said the warning of a potential attack by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was received "in the last few hours, few days."

European officials were informed that "Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was doubtless active or envisioned being active" on the "European continent, notably France," Hortefeux said during a joint TV and radio interview.

"The threat is real," he said on RTL-LCI-Le Figaro's weekly talk show.

The warning from Saudi Arabia is the latest in a series of alerts that have put French security forces and others in high-vigilance mode.

On Sept. 9, Interpol, the international police organization, signaled an "Islamist threat on a world scale, and notably on the European continent," Hortefeux said without elaborating. That was followed by a Sept. 16, report of a woman suicide bomber who could take action in France — later judged not fully credible.

Intelligence sources in North Africa also contacted France about a potential threat as did the United States, he said. He said he had spoken at length with U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.

COMMENT:  Now, readers, be very careful.  If you discuss this story with friends who are pro-Obama, be sure to leave out the silly business about Islamic extremism.  Don't even mention Al Qaeda.  Just say there are reports of alientated peoples, offended by Bush policies, planning resistance operations because of their own desperation in the face of American imperialism and the onslaught of Bill O'Reilly.

Of course, it is serious.  A major French official would not be going public unless the threat was credible.  If it's credible there, it's credible here.  Sadly, we know what it will take to wake us up.

October 18, 2010     Permalink