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ELECTION - 13 days from today

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2010

ELECTION ROUNDUP - AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Lots of chatter and analysis today about the latest polls and what they show.

Overall – Republicans doing very well, on track to take the House.  The Senate remains a steep climb.  Senate races are tightening, but we learn this isn't unusual.  From the L.A. Times:

According to Real Clear Politics, there are eight Senate races where one candidate's lead in the polls is no greater than 4%.

Two surveys released Tuesday showed Democrat Joe Sestak with his first lead over Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race since just after he won the state's May primary. Kentucky’s Jack Conway has pulled to within 5% of Republican Rand Paul; an internal poll by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows him ahead.

A new CNN poll released today showed Republicans Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski tied in the Alaska Senate race; Murkowski is running a write-in campaign after losing the GOP primary in August. Contests have also closed in Colorado, Washington and California, all seats held by Democrats...

....The number of competitive races is not unusual, experts say, even with the heightened focus this year. In fact, in each of the last five election cycles, the Cook Political Report has ranked nine seats as tossups by Election Day.

Those tossup races "tend to break disproportionally toward one party" once the votes are counted, according to Jennifer Duffy, Senate race analyst for the respected handicapper.

COMMENT:  We're looking at Pennsylvania, which is turning into a possible heartbreaker for Republicans, although GOP turnout on election day can save it for Pat Toomey.

Also looking at California and Washington.  Carly Fiorina is closing on the unspeakable Barbara Boxer, and Dino Rossi is closing on the barely speakable Patty Murray.  Again, turnout can erase any small Dem edge.  But the Dems have a superb ground game ("get out the vote" effort) in both states, which may negate GOP enthusiasm.  Watch these.

Republicans are at risk, not only in Pennsylvania, but in Kentucky, when slightly flakey Rand Paul is being chased by Jack Conway.  Also at risk in Colorado, where another bit of a flake job, Republican Ken Buck, is blowing his lead by foolish statements.  Once again, I must express disappointment with the quality of some Republican nominees.  They are simply not performing, not professional enough.  We hope they win, but let's learn the lesson. 

In Illinois, though, Republican Mark Kirk seems to be pulling into a respectable lead against the Democrat whose name I can't spell.

And in West Virginia, Rasmussen now shows Republican Raese with a seven-point lead over Democrat Manchin.

We'll keep you informed, day by day.

October 20, 2010      Permalink

YIPPEE – AT 7:45 P.M. ET:  Another new generic poll out has good news for the people of purity and quality.  From AOL News:

WASHINGTON -All signs point to huge Republican victories in two weeks, with the GOP now leading Democrats on virtually every measure in an Associated Press-GfK poll of people likely to vote in the first major elections of Barack Obama's presidency.

In the final survey before Election Day, likely voters say the GOP would do a better job than Democrats on handling the economy, creating jobs and running the government.

Most also think the country's headed in the wrong direction. More than half disapprove of Obama's job performance. And even more don't like the Democratic-controlled Congress.

Neither party is popular. But likely voters view the GOP a bit more positively than they do the Democrats. Slightly more say they will vote for the Republican congressional candidate in their district over the Democrat. And most think the GOP will win control of Congress from the Democrats.

And...

In another worrisome sign for Democrats, women now split pretty evenly between the two parties, 49 percent favoring Democrats, 45 percent Republicans. In 2006, Democrats took over Capitol Hill in part by winning 55 percent of the female vote to 43 percent for Republicans.

And...

The survey's key findings among likely voters show:

50 percent say they will back the GOP candidate in their House district; 43 percent say they'll support the Democrat. The edge has slightly narrowed over the past month as Democrats presumably have grown more energized...

...54 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance; 45 percent approve...

...52 percent have a favorable impression of the GOP; 44 percent view the Democratic Party positively.

COMMENT:  Ah, sometimes numbers are like music.  But these numbers must be translated into votes.  People are voting right now in many states, and early signs are good.  We'll know in less than two weeks.

October 20, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 7:36 P.M. ET:

From the New York Post:  Only 26 percent of New York City voters want Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for president in 2012, according to a poll released Wednesday.  The Marist College poll found that nearly two-thirds of people in the Big Apple -- 64 percent -- want him to stay on the sidelines.  The three-term mayor -- who briefly flirted with the idea of running in 2008 as an Independent, according to a host of media reports -- received a 50 percent job approval from the city’s voters in the survey.

When you tell people who are sincerely opposed to the mosque at Ground Zero that they should be ashamed of themselves, this is what happens. 

October 20, 2010      Permalink

TAKING ACTION IN BRITAIN – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  The numbers here are really stunning.  Britain is taking drastic action to rescue its economy.  There is going to be a lot of resistance, and possibly street action, but this may turn out to be a model for the U.S.:

LONDON — Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer unveiled the country’s steepest public spending cuts in decades on Wednesday, sharply reducing welfare benefits and eliminating almost half a million public sector jobs over the next four years as the country seeks to free itself of crushing debt from the global financial crisis.

“Today is the day when Britain steps back from the brink,” George Osborne, the Chancellor, told Parliament.

“It is a hard road but it leads to a better future,” he said, but “to back down now would be the road to economic ruin.”

He said that 490,000 public sector jobs would be lost over the four-year savings program and the size of government departments in London would be cut by one third. Public spending would be cut by a total 83 billion pounds, or around $130 billion, by 2015.

He promised savings of an annual 7.1 per cent in the budgets of local councils and said there would be a freeze in tax funds allocated to maintaining the royal household of Queen Elizabeth II. Public housing tenants, he said, would face higher rentals closer to the market rates for private housing. Defense spending would be cut by 8 percent by 2014, he said, but promised not to reduce spending on British forces in the Afghanistan war.

COMMENT:  The defense cuts are highly controversial, and the one thing we would doubt.  Both Secretary Gates and Secretary Clinton have raised questions about those cuts, as the U.S. would have to take up any slack left by the Brits. 

Some areas, like health, would actually get more money.  The real shock is the cut of 490,000 public sector jobs.  We simply must address the fat public payroll here as well. 

As readers know, there are ongoing riots in France over the plan to increase the retirement age from 60 to 62.  There have been riots in Greece over belt tightening.  But at least countries are taking action. 

October 20, 2010      Permalink

YOU REALLY CANNOT MAKE THIS UP – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  We report it to you straight, from ABC News:

On an upcoming trip to India, President Obama will skip visiting one of the country’s most sacred shrines out of fear that wearing the requisite headgear might make him appear Muslim, according to reports from the United States and India.

It sounds crazy, doesn't it?  But India is an ally, and snubbing an ally comes naturally to this crowd.

The New York Times, citing an unnamed American official involved in the trip’s planning, reports that the president will not stop at the Golden Temple, a Sikh holy site and one of the country’s most popular tourist attractions, because visitors typically wear headscarves, turbans or Muslim caps.

Obama was to visit the sprawling golden complex in Amritsar, "but the plan appears to have foundered on the thorny question of how Mr. Obama would cover his head, as Sikh tradition requires, while visiting the temple," wrote the Times.

"To come to golden temple he needs to cover his head," Dalmegh Singh, secretary of the committee that runs the temple told the paper. "That is our tradition. It is their problem to cover the head with a Christian hat or a Muslim cap."

I don't know what a Christian hat is, but I suggest Mr. Obama get one quickly and not create an international incident.  Is this difficult?

Obama, who is a Christian, has repeatedly had to fend off accusations that he is secretly Muslim. An April poll conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life found that nearly 1 in 5 Americans believe the president is Muslim.

Well, he doesn't help matters when he grovels before every Muslim head of state within shouting distance and makes a speech in Cairo in which he grovels some more.  It's the actions, not the hat, Mr. Obama. 

Our presidency has come to this.  Reagan would have put on a cowboy hat and said, "Take it or leave it."

October 20, 2010      Permalink

ON THE OTHER HAND – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  The news from Pennsylvania may be troublesome (see post just below), but the overall picture for Republicans nationwide continues encouraging.  From The Wall Street Journal:

A vigorous post-Labor Day Democratic offensive has failed to diminish the resurgent Republicans' lead among likely voters, leaving the GOP poised for major gains in congressional elections two weeks away, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

Among likely voters, Republicans hold a 50% to 43% edge, up from a three-percentage-point lead a month ago.

In the broader category of registered voters, 46% favor a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 44% who want Republican control. But in the 92 House districts considered most competitive, the GOP's lead among registered voters is 14 points, underscoring the Democrats' challenge in maintaining their hold on the House. The poll of 1,000 registered voters was taken Oct. 14-18.

"It's hard to say Democrats are facing anything less than a category four hurricane," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "And it's unlikely the Democratic House will be left standing."

Mr. McInturff said the Republican lead among likely voters, if it stood, probably would yield a pickup of 52 or 53 House seats, surpassing the net gain of 39 seats the GOP needs to claim control of the chamber.

COMMENT:  We certainly hope this is right.  But brace yourself for a Democratic fear campaign in these last two weeks.  The Dems will attempt to convince vulnerable voters that everything they have, including baby food and aspirin, will be taken from them by the Republicans and given to people with 18-bedroom houses.  And some voters will buy it. 

October 20, 2010       Permalink

PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE – AT 7:52 A.M. ET:  Last night we reported the disturbing news that a new poll in Pennsylvania put Democrat Joe Sestak ahead of Pat Toomey in their race for the U.S. Senate.  Toomey had been ahead by as much as ten points.  Some discounted the poll as an outlier.

I'm afraid a second poll, just published, confirms the bad news.  It has Sestak ahead by three in a state already heavily Democratic.

Sestak, about whom I've written negatively, is regarded as a great closer in election campaigns, coming from behind on several occasions to win.  If that happens again it will be a reversal of what the GOP thought was an almost sure thing for the superb Pat Toomey.  This would be a heartbreaker. 

We'll keep you informed.  Combined with some news from other states, we must be cautious about our expectations for the Senate on election day.  The GOP, which had dreamed of finding the ten seats needed to control the Senate, may wind up with as few as four or five additions.  Not a strikeout, but no home run either.

October 20, 2010     Permalink

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2010

EARLY TRENDS – AT 8:28 P.M. ET:  A record number of Americans are voting in this election through early ballot programs.  Indeed, observers estimate that as many as 40% of the votes in many races will be cast before election day. 

There are some early indications of how people are voting.  From The Politico:  

Early-voting numbers out of Nevada’s two biggest counties could spell trouble for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in his tough contest against Republican Sharron Angle.

In Reno’s Washoe County and Las Vegas’s Clark County, Republican turnout was disproportionately high over the first three voting days, according to local election officials. The two counties together make up 86 percent of the state’s voter population...

...Some 47 percent of early voters in the bellwether Washoe County so far have been Republicans, while 40 percent have been Democrats, according to the Washoe County Registrar. Nearly 11,000 people had voted in Washoe over the first three days of early voting, which began Saturday.

And this, too, from the Charlotte Observer:

The largest group of early voters in North Carolina is made up of white Republican men, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Democracy North Carolina, a campaign watchdog group.

During the 2008 Democratic sweep, black Democratic women led all groups during the 17 days of early voting. But during the first three days of early voting this year, it is white Republican men.

"Early voting doesn't favor one party or another, but reveals who's most organized and enthusiastic about making their voices heard," said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina.

So far early voting has been especially heavy for a midterm election.

COMMENT:  So far, early trends should make us cautiously smile.  Turnout is clearly the key.  There are some races where our guys are behind by three or four points – California, Washington state – but numbers like that can be made up by turnout.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

PENNSYLVANIA POKER – AT 7:59 P.M. ET:  There is a raft of new polls out today, published since our morning posts, and for the most part they confirm the trends we've seen.  But one, unfortunately, does not.

Pennsylvania has looked for months like an almost sure thing for the GOP in the race for the Senate between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak.  In a strongly Democratic state, Toomey has led polls by as much as ten points.  But a PPP poll out today has Sestak ahead be one.

Pennsylvania is known for close Senate races, and just about everyone expected the gap in the Toomey-Sestak race to narrow, but this is a little too close for comfort.  Toomey is a superb Republican candidate – thoughtfully conservative, knowledgeable and solid.  Congressman Joe Sestak is one of those Democrats I'd least like to see in the U.S. Senate.  He is a former Navy vice admiral, which ordinarily would make me supportive, but his separation from the Navy has been clouded.  He himself says he left voluntarily to take care of a sick daughter – you wonder when they start dragging in the kids – but too many others have told other stories of his being eased out for me to rest assured.  As a congressman, Sestak always seemed a bit too slick, and always too willing to wave his Navy uniform before the voters.

Steve Hayes, superlative young journalist and writer for the Weekly Standard, said on Fox News earlier this evening that there were problems in the PPP poll, and that it tilted toward the Democratic side.  I certainly hope so.  I'd hate to lose this one. 

We'll be watching Pennsylvania very closely.  It reports early in the evening on election day, and I don't want to see any smirks on the part of those "neutral" network anchors.

October 19, 2010     Permalink

HE JUST DOESN'T LIKE US – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Have you ever seen anything like it?  A president who doesn't like his country, or his people?  Can anyone, any longer, doubt that this is the case with Barack Hussein Obama Jr.?  Why does he get away with it?  Because many in the mainstream media feel the same way he does about America.

Michael Gerson, in the Washington Post, analyzes our above-us president, in today's must-read: 

"Part of the reason that our politics seems so tough right now," he recently told a group of Democratic donors in Massachusetts, "and facts and science and argument [do] not seem to be winning the day all the time is because we're hard-wired not to always think clearly when we're scared. And the country is scared."

Let's unpack these remarks.

Obama clearly believes that his brand of politics represents "facts and science and argument." His opponents, in disturbing contrast, are using the more fearful, primitive portion of their brains. Obama views himself as the neocortical leader -- the defender, not just of the stimulus package and health-care reform but also of cognitive reasoning. His critics rely on their lizard brains -- the location of reptilian ritual and aggression. Some, presumably Democrats, rise above their evolutionary hard-wiring in times of social stress; others, sadly, do not.

Though there is plenty of competition, these are some of the most arrogant words ever uttered by an American president.

We warned and warned during the 2008 campaign that this is the way the guy is, but our warnings were ignored.  The media sold Obama to the American people as a brilliant, "post-racial" president, which he is not.

Interpreting Obama does not require psychoanalysis or the reading of mystic Chicago runes. He is an intellectual snob.

And...

This is not just a political problem; it is a governing challenge. There is fear out there in America -- not because of the lizard brain but because of objective economic conditions. And a reactionary populism can be disturbing when it targets minorities, immigrants and intellectuals. But intellectual disdain among elites feeds this destructive populism rather than directing or defusing it. Obama is helping to cause what he criticizes.

I'm glad Gerson wrote that.  Self-proclaimed intellectuals often cause their own political destruction.

One response to social stress doesn't help at all: telling people their fears result from primitive irrationality. Obama may think that many of his fellow citizens can't reason. But they can still vote.

Yes we can!  And we will!

We had another president who thought he was just a bit above us.  His name was Jimmah Carter, and he also thought he was a direct conduit from God.  He was escorted from the executive mansion after one term.  We don't know how God explained it to him.

Two more years of Barack Obama, we hope.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

MORE FROM THE MULTICULTURALISM FRONT – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:   Once again we urge you not to be judgmental, not to think, not to feel, not to be anything but accepting, and a little brain dead.  From the Dallas Morning News:

A prominent Islamic scholar who has battled accusations of extremist beliefs has been arrested along with his wife on federal charges that they married other people to get U.S. citizenship.

I am shocked.  Quickly, my pills. 

Ibrahim Abdelrahman Dremali and Safaa Rashad Eissa were arrested by immigration agents, Arlington police and the FBI on Oct. 6 on a warrant out of Des Moines, Iowa. They were released on their own recognizance after appearing before a federal judge in Fort Worth the same day.

They are scheduled to enter pleas Nov. 12 in Iowa on charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States, which can carry a five-year sentence, and procurement of citizenship or naturalization unlawfully, which can result in 10 to 25 years in prison.

Dremali, who earned degrees in geology and Islamic law in Cairo, immigrated to the U.S. in 1989 and has served as an imam, or Muslim spiritual leader, in south Florida, Iowa and Austin and worked at Islamic schools.

This summer, he and his wife moved to a house on Virginia Lane near the Islamic Society of Arlington, where he helped lead a local Islamic school.

COMMENT:  Read the whole story.  Another gem comes to America.  This is actually an illegal immigration case, and I wonder if it's the tip of the iceberg.

But how will Janet Napolitano label it?  A manmade disaster?  It's a marriage scam.  Maybe she'll call it a couple-made disaster.  Or a caterer-made disaster.  Or...a good thing misinterpreted by dumb Americans who don't understand what Obama is doing. 

We look forward to the explanation at the next court date.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

TWO WEEKS TO GO – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  Now it gets really interesting.

If there's one thing I've noticed in examining the trends and polls it's that the election seems frozen in place.  There's been very little movement in most of the key races.  Sharron Angle appears to have gained a bit in her battle against Harry Reid, and Christine O'Donnell appears to have advanced a little against whoever she's running against in Delaware.  But there's been no jolt. 

Will that remain?  Pollsters say that the people begin seriously concentrating on the race in the last two weeks, but I wonder if that's true this time.  This midterm has attracted more attention, and more passion, than any other in memory.  I think the two-week rule may be history in, well, two weeks.

There are reports that Republicans are already preparing to govern the legislative branch, and are determined to build a record of solid accomplishment to bring to the American people in 2012.  That is good.  Lack of preparation for actual governing has often been the curse of both parties.  And presidents rejected in their first midterm have a way of climbing back and winning their next election.  Bill Clinton did.  Ronald Reagan did.  And FDR did.  Many don't realize it, but President Roosevelt took a thumping in the 1942 midterms, only 11 months after Pearl Harbor, with his party losing 45 votes in the House and eight in the Senate.  But Mr. Roosevelt was elected for a fourth term two years later.

So don't count Obama out.  Even if the Democrats lose big in two weeks, Obama might get himself reelected in 2012 if the GOP falters in its new power in Congress, or fails to put up a strong presidential candidate. 

The fight is ongoing.  Never stop.

October 19, 2010      Permalink

NO SHOCK HERE – AT 8:27 A.M. ET:  This is why there's a revolt against Washington going on in the country right now.  From The Politico:

Washington elites have little faith that tea party candidates will be able to bring change and say grass-roots conservatives have been the most negative in spreading their message, according to a new POLITICO poll released Tuesday.

Washingtonians involved in the political or policy process believe overwhelmingly that tea party candidates will not “be able to bring change to Washington.” Only 11 percent of D.C. insiders polled said they thought the tea party could bring change, compared with 77 percent who did not.

And...

The poll, the fourth in the six-month “Power and the People” series, shows a disconnect between how the tea party is viewed in Washington and how it is viewed in the rest of the country.

COMMENT:  The problem, of course, is that Washington thinks it is the country.  This reminds me of the classic New Yorker cover depicting the view of America from New York:  There is Manhattan, looking west to a tiny sliver of land called the United States, and then off to a vast Pacific Ocean.

Sorry to say it, being a New Yorker, but that's the way many people see it here, and that view exists in Washington as well. 

Corrective coming on November 2nd.

October 19, 2010     Permalink