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ELECTION - 6 days from today

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2010

MORE BAD NEWS FOR THE DEMS – AT 8:18 P.M. ET:  From CBS News:

With the midterm elections less than a week away, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds that Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats in the generic House ballot. Forty-six percent of likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while 40 percent say they will vote Democrat.

The advantage can be attributed in large part to independents, who are breaking hard for the GOP. Forty-seven percent of independent likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while just 32 percent plan to vote Democrat. Seventeen percent haven't made up their minds.

More than four in five Democrats and Republicans, meanwhile, say they are sticking with their party.

COMMENT:  Now, what does that tell us?  It tells us that the key political objective of the Republican Party after the election is to hang onto those independents and build strength among them. 

American elections are won in the middle.  They aren't won on the fringes.  Neither the far right nor the far left understand that, or even care.  We have to understand it, and we have to care. 

October 27, 2010       Permalink

ANOTHER CHARGE – AT 8:11 P.M. ET:   We're going to monitor, to the degree possible, the voter fraud charges that are bound to pop up in the next week, especially in large cities, where residents can visit with their deceased aunts and uncles on election day, simply by meeting them at the polls.  Here's a new one:

A trio of Bucks County residents backed by the county Republican committee say they have evidence linking Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy's campaign to a scheme to flood the county voter registration office with fraudulent applications for absentee ballots.

In a petition filed Tuesday, county Republicans say the name of Murphy's campaign manager appeared on a Bristol post office box where voters were urged in a series of letters paid for by the state Democratic Committee to send absentee ballot applications.

The county Republicans submitted with the petition a photograph of a note inside the mailbox that said, "Tim Percico and Paul Hampel only pick up mail." Tim Persico is Murphy's campaign manager, although his name is misspelled in the note. Hampel is a volunteer for the Democratic state committee who said he collects mail from the box.

While county and state Democratic officials denied involvement in the letter campaign or refused to discuss it, Persico said Tuesday that the "PA Vote 2010" project that paid for the letters is a partnership between Murphy's campaign and the state Democrats.

COMMENT:  We have no independent knowledge of this, but charges of fraud are already emerging, and all of them are being made by Republicans.

October 27, 2010      Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 6:03 A.M. ET:  We like to remind our readers that there is a world beyond our elections, and it is sometimes grim.  The New York Post, in an excellent editorial, reviews some disturbing developments in our approach to Iran.   These slipped by in the last few days: 

Yesterday was just another day in the Middle East, Obamanauts would have you believe.

Iran began fueling the core of its first nuclear reactor, but that's no big deal, they say. The Bushehr plant will be in full swing in months, but pay no heed.

Worry-warts are supposed to relax, because Russia is supplying the enriched fuel that powers its reactor. Moscow is meant to supply outside oversight.

That's reassuring.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized the Bushehr arrangement as "premature" in March during a trip to Russia.

But now she can't even manage a whimper. Clinton said yesterday the US is concerned solely by hidden nuke sites.

"Iran is entitled to the peaceful use of nuclear power," she said. "They are not entitled to a nuclear-weapons program."

But Bushehr only legitimizes Iran's own enrichment activity, which is conducted deep underground and away from the prying eyes of UN nuke inspectors.

Clinton has glossed over a terrible truth: The Obama administration now considers Iran a fellow nuclear power -- one as yet unarmed, yet someday soon, perhaps, a nuclear equal, fully armed.

COMMENT:  The editorial is correct.  What we're seeing is the gradual collapse of American power in the Mideast, something no doubt welcome in the leftist wing of the Democratic Party.

I'm surprised to see Hillary Clinton going along with this, unless she plans some grand exit before the 2012 election.  Our policy toward Iran is a failure, and she must know it. 

The first key question:  What will Israel do once it realizes that Barack Obama has no intention of stopping Iran?

The second key question:  Will this directionless policy change after next week's election?

There's a lot riding on the answers.

October 27, 2010       Permalink

WE WON'T HAVE GRAYSON TO KICK AROUND ANYMORE – AT 5:58 A.M. ET:  If there is one member of Congress who could easily win the title of Mr. Uncongeniality, it's Democrat Alan Grayson of Florida. 

No doubt you've seen some of Grayson's more obnoxious outings on TV, such as the time he accused Republicans of wanting people to die, rather than provide them with medical care.  And then there's Grayson's recent TV ad, deemed by some observers the most offensive of the season, in which he carefully edited tapes of his opponent to make the poor man say the exact opposite of what he actually said. 

But Florida voters have caught on:

Holding a steady 7-point lead over a controversial and increasingly malodorous incumbent, Republican Daniel Webster is poised to knock out U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.

Webster, a former state senator, leads Grayson, D-Orlando, 48-41. Florida TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire garnered 4 percent, No Party Affiliation candidate George Metcalfe got 1 percent, and 5 percent of respondents were undecided.

In a previous poll, conducted Sept. 25, Webster led Grayson 43-36, an identical 7-point margin.

"Webster has to be the favorite here. Grayson has failed to turn his negative image around, and is still viewed in a negative light by a 55-38 margin," said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted both polls. "This means Grayson has very little if any room to grow."

COMMENT:  One of the great myths is that Americans are uninformed.  In fact, many Americans are quite well informed.  In this case, the residents of Florida's 8th Congressional District know well the mean-spirited and dishonest antics of their current congressman, and seem determined to make a change.

Grayson, by the way, has an outstanding academic record, which shows that academic achievement isn't enough when the measure of a man is taken.  Someone tell the president.

October 27, 2010      Permalink

OH, MAKE IT SO, LORDY, MAKE IT SO – AT 5:47 A.M. ET:  It is already being asked:  What will Queen Nancy do after next week's election, when the pink slip is slipped under her door?  Answers are starting to be suggested:

Democrats on Capitol Hill and K Street are increasingly convinced that Speaker Nancy Pelosi would have little interest in being Minority Leader -- and may start preparing to leave Congress altogether -- if Republicans win the House next week.

Pelosi and her allies adamantly refuse to entertain questions about a possible Democratic minority. But Democratic sources say they have a hard time imagining the 70-year-old, independently wealthy California Democrat would want to return to the less-powerful post that she held for four years before becoming Speaker in 2007, particularly after having spent the past four years driving the Congressional agenda.

Should Republicans sweep into power on Nov. 2, the pivotal question that some Democrats have begun contemplating is one of timing: Does Pelosi step aside immediately, or does she stick around for a few months as Minority Leader to help smooth the transition to her successor? Both scenarios assume Pelosi heads for the exits within a few weeks or months.

COMMENT:  Sounds logical.  At one time speakers like the great Democrat, Sam Rayburn, or the great Republican, Joe Martin, would stay in Congress if the majority changed hands, waiting for their next turn.  That has not been the recent example.  There's a time to get offstage, and Nancy's time has come.  Her agent might look for nightclub work.

October 27, 2010      Permalink

GOP BLOWOUT PREDICTED BY "THE HILL" - AT 5:41 A.M. ET:  "The Hill" newspaper, an authoritative inside-the-Beltway sheet read by political pros, isn't holding back on its predictions for next week:

Republicans are headed for a blowout election win that seems certain to seize more than enough seats to knock out the Democrats and take control of the House.

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.

The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).
Of the 42 districts polled for The Hill, all but two of which are currently Democratic, 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven, and four were tied. In addition, there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they weren’t polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups, plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play.

And...

One of the most striking findings from The Hill’s polling is that voter opinions have remained rock-solid over four weeks, particularly among independents.

In the overwhelming majority of districts, independent voters are breaking for Republican challengers while expressing widespread disapproval of Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress.

COMMENT:  This is pretty much in line with what we're reading, although some political observers are urging caution.  Remember, no votes have actually been counted yet. 

It is in the Senate where GOP dreams may be snipped a bit.  A combination of weak candidates and a sometimes incoherent message will make it hard for the Republicans to run the table and take control of the upper house.  Most estimates, as of right now, have the new Senate dividing about 52-48 in favor of the Dems.  That would still mean a gain of seven for the GOP and would make it virtually impossible for the Democrats to get anything crazy through the Senate, since the more moderate Dems owe nothing to the current Democratic leadership and could defect on measures that are unpopular back home.

October 27, 2010     Permalink

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2010

STOLEN ELECTION? – AT 7:39 P.M. ET:  The late comedian, Red Buttons, used to feature a segment on his TV show introduced by a song called "Strange Things are Happening."  And they are, right here in America, a week before a major election.  Investor's Business Daily Reports:

'It can't happen here," most Americans would say about the chances of voting one way and seeing your votes recorded the opposite. But that's what happened in early voting in North Carolina's unfortunately named Craven County last week.

Voter Sam Laughinghouse of New Bern found that "an electronic voting machine completed his straight-party ticket for the opposite of what he intended," the New Bern Sun Journal reported.

Laughinghouse "pushed the button to vote Republican in all races, but the voting machine screen displayed a ballot with all Democrats checked," the local paper reported. "He cleared the screen and tried again with the same result."

Election personnel eventually straightened it out, but clearly a less observant Republican voter would have inadvertently voted for every Democrat on his ballot.

And...

In Boulder City, Nev., meanwhile, where voters use computer screens, another disturbing episode was reported by Fox News. When voter Joyce Ferrara and her husband went to vote for Republican Sharron Angle, they — and several others, according to Ferrara — found that Democratic incumbent Harry Reid's name was already checked. The county registrar's explanation: The high-tech voting screens are sensitive.

The Nevada case is especially disturbing because the seat of the most powerful Democrat in the Senate is at stake.

COMMENT:  There are many, many close races to be decided next week.  Late polls today show a number of races tightening, with Democrats making some, but limited gains.  The temptation to cheat is great.

Remember the recent charge that Eric Holder's Justice Department is refusing to prosecute voter fraud cases when the defendant is a minority?  You can be sure that charge has been absorbed by politicians in some big cities, where fraud can often decide an election.  We think especially of St. Louis and Chicago, with a bit of Philly thrown in.  What risk is there of cheating, when you know you won't be pursued by the Justice Department?

The issue of voter fraud should be taken very seriously.  The man in the White House reperesents a notorious big-city machine.  I would not be shocked if cries of "fraud" are heard across the political landscape next Tuesday night, possibly in the tight Illinois race for Obama's old Senate seat and in the tight Senate race in Pennsylvania.

October 26, 2010      Permalink

SETBACK – AT 7:16 P.M. ET:  Carly Fiorina, Republican candidate for the Senate from California, has suffered a personal setback.  From The Politico:

California Republican Senate nominee Carly Fiorina has been hospitalized with an infection related to her post-breast-cancer surgery, according to her campaign.

Fiorina was admitted to an unspecified Los Angeles hospital Tuesday morning to receive antibiotics, according to a statement released by her chief of staff, Deborah Bowker. The illness takes Fiorina off the campaign trail at a crucial time in her tough contest with Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.

"While this will impact her campaign schedule today, Carly is upbeat, and her doctors expect her to make a quick and full recovery and be back out on the campaign trail soon," Bowker said.

COMMENT:  It may seem cold to consider the political implications of this, but we must.  It reminds voters that Carly isn't entirely recovered.  No one has to say anything.  This can't be good.  Latest polls show Carly four points behind Boxer, and she won't be out delivering her message.

We wish her well.  She didn't deserve this.

October 26, 2010       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:47 A.M. ET:  Juan Williams was fired by NPR last week for not having the opinions assigned to him by liberal white society.  Among other things, he expressed a certain apprehension when seeing Muslims aboard an airliner – an emotion the great majority of Americans probably experience.

Juan was accued of intolerance.  I'm sure the word "Islamophobia," now trendy on the left, was thrown around.

Well, ever hear of Molly Norris?  She's a West Coast cartoonist who suggested a "draw Mohammed" day.  The result?  She's had to go into hiding to avoid being killed.  I haven't seen much protest about this from the guardians of our civil discourse.  Have you?  David Harsanyi, of the Denver Post, notes:

If you can ever find the Seattle cartoonist Molly Norris ask her about religious tolerance. Norris has reportedly gone "ghost" after finding herself on an Islamic terror hit list for her insulting cartoon. (Let me know when a journalist makes an atheist, Mormon or papal hit list.)

Free speech didn't exactly work out that well for Molly. There was only a faint outcry about her predicament. The tolerance crowd was busy smearing anyone who didn't like idea of a mosque near ground zero a bigot.

That's OK, most cartoonists understand that nearly every topic is open to them. Nearly.

And since most of us still enjoy nearly unlimited free expression, perhaps NPR will explain its reverence to open dialogue at some point during the next 600 hours of shilling for charity.

Perhaps NPR can even take a few moments to explain to American Muslims why they're thought of as children who can't handle the slightest perceived politically incorrect comment.

And maybe they can carve out a few minutes for groups that instigated and rationalize shutting down journalists. Perhaps they can explain how they perceive themselves "liberal." It seems to be a misnomer for the ages.

Sure is.  Liberalism ain't what it used to be.  The phonies of the left eventually destroy themselves, but do a great deal of damage on their path to self-destruction.  NPR, with its huge infusion of funds from George Soros, may turn out to be one of the most damaging of institutions.

October 26, 2010       Permalink

RAHMING IT THROUGH – AT 9:07 A.M. ET:  Rahm Emanuel's path to the mayor's office in Chicago has gotten progressively easier.  That's an important job because the mayor of Chicago is a traditional kingmaker in the Democratic Party.  From The Politico:

Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., saddled by his ties to disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and a relationship with a female “social acquaintance,” has opted not to run for mayor of Chicago.

The decision by the Democratic congressman to sit out the race means former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, considered a frontrunner, has one less opponent to fend off in his bid for the mayor’s office, which he has long coveted.

Jackson’s announcement, in a statement Monday, makes him the second congressman in as many weeks to choose not to join the crowded field taking shape to replace longtime Mayor Richard M. Daley. Rep. Luis Gutierrez also said no.

Both Jackson and Gutierrez had considered running for mayor before, even when it would have meant a primary challenge against Daley, but did not.

COMMENT:  Emanuel is hardly popular in the Chicago Democratic machine, and he's not a member of one of the ethnic groups that traditionally competes for power.  So he still will face competition.  But the heavy hitters have struck out before him.  "Mayor Rahm" doesn't sound so unusual. 

I don't think an Emanuel mayoralty will make much difference in the 2012 presidential election, as Obama would probably take Illinois pretty easily, without Rahm's help.  But beyond that...

October 26, 2010      Permalink

THE STANDINGS – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  With a week to go, the standings in the polls remain remarkably stable.

In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey has restored his momentum.  The Morning Call tracker now puts him up eight.

But the Connecticut Senate race looks grim, with Quinnipiac confirming other polls and putting Blumenthal up 12 over McMahon.  Linda McMahon was on TV last night reminding us that Scott Brown was behind in the polls by an even greater margin at this time in his campaign.  Yeah, true, but Linda isn't Scott Brown, unfortunately, although she's run a very respectable campaign.  Hope for a miracle.

RealClearPolitics pegs the House at 222 Republicans, 180 Dems and 33 toss ups.  It takes 218 for a majority.  But RCP pegs the Senate at 48 Dems, 44 Republicans and 8 toss ups, unchanged in days.

And note this, from David Paul Kuhn at RCP:

Republicans are likely to have the advantage drawing congressional seats for the first time since the modern redistricting process began in the 1980s.

Welcome to the furthest reaches of the coming Republican wave. The GOP is on track to win at least the House in one week. But the story extends far beyond Washington. Republicans' gains in the states will likely match those in Congress, or possibly exceed them.

There'll probably be more polls later today.

October 26, 2010       Permalink

ONE WEEK TO GO – IN A WEEK AND A DAY WE'LL KNOW IF AMERICA HAS BEEN SAVED FROM THE DECREPIT, TERMINALLY INCOMPETENT CLUTCHES OF THE OBAMAN REGIMENTS.

Well, actually we'll just know if the Republicans will get a chance at bat.   I suspect they will. 

One big question this morning:  How much impact will the "enthusiasm gap" have?  From USA Today:

One week before Election Day, Democrats face a record-setting "enthusiasm gap" that positions energized Republicans to score sweeping victories in next week's congressional elections, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

Despite across-the-country rallies by President Obama and get-out-the-vote efforts by his allies, only 37% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters report more enthusiasm than usual about voting, a decline from early in the year.

Meanwhile, 63% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual, the biggest advantage for either party on this key measure in any midterm election since Gallup began asking the question in 1994. Then, Republicans had a 9-point enthusiasm advantage in a year Democrats lost control of the U.S. House and Senate.

Now, the enthusiasm gap is 26 points.

COMMENT:  Goody.  Let it grow, let it grow.  Everything this week will be devoted to the "ground game," the get-out-the-vote effort.  Democrats generally have an edge in that game, but the enthusiasm gap may well dull that edge considerably. 

Dick Morris said last night that if a Republican is a few points behind a Dem incumbent at this point, the Republican is likely to win.  I think that's true.  The extra enthusiasm has got to be worth those points, and more.  I hope it is worth those points in, especially, California and Washington state, so that Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray can plan retirement parties.  Maybe a joint party.  They're very big on communal efforts on the left. 

October 26, 2010     Permalink