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ELECTION - 5 days from today

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2010

OH IT'S TRULY SAD THAT WE DON'T MEET HIS STANDARDS – AT 9:22 P.M. ET:  What's with these Democrats?  Their entire political approach seems to boil down to, "We're smart, everyone else is stupid."  Now the clown prince of elitism, John Kerry, gives his own assessment of our lowly status:

BOSTON—Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry unleashed a broadside Thursday against Republican "obstructionism," saying the GOP and its talk-show allies have created a "period of know-nothingism" in the country.

With his party braced for defeats in the midterm elections, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee told the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce that a Republican machine -- fueled by talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck -- has undermined progress and misled the public into believing Democrats created the country's current economic problems.

Kerry singled out attacks on an energy deal he was negotiating with Republicans, which fell apart amid criticism of an emissions-trading program. Some 20 Senate candidates are now opposing the proposed deal in their campaigns.

"It's absurd. We've lost our minds," said a clearly exasperated Kerry. "We're in a period of know-nothingism in the country, where truth and science and facts don't weigh in. It's all short-order, lowest common denominator, cheap-seat politics."

COMMENT:  Yeah, right.  We're all that dumb.  We all reject "truth and science and facts."  No, sir.  We just don't think you've got the facts on your side.  And as for science, perhaps you'd like to explain the growing number of first-class scientific minds who are rejecting the glib "climate change" models that never seem to work out.

John Kerry has made a career out of being wrong.  He once went to Moscow and concluded that the Soviet Union was weak because half the lights were out.  Of course, he never was taken to a missile-launching submarine, where, I assure you, the lights worked, just as the Soviet tanks had worked (superbly) in World War II. 

It's not "elites" we oppose.  It's their arrogant, I-can't-be-wrong attitude.  It's the Kerrys we don't like.

October 28, 2010      Permalink

THE MESS IN ALASKA – AT 7:09 P.M. ET:  We haven't paid much attention to Alaska, buy should have.  You'll recall that insurgent Joe Miller defeated incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski for the GOP Senate nomination.  Miller had the support of Sarah Palin.  Murkowski then came back to the race as a write-in candidate.

Well, Miller hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.  He strikes many people as abrasive, he hid some embarrassing moments in his past, and there is an aura of unattractiveness about him.  Now, a new poll shows him slipping from first to third place, just five days before the election.  And who is in the lead?  Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski.  If she wins as a write-in, she would still be considered a Republican senator, but her victory would be a severe blow, in her home state, to Sarah Palin.  Murkowski is a blood opponent of Palin, who defeated Murkowski's father for the governorship.  Miller's decline is trouble for Sarah.

If Murkowski wins, and it's a big "if" since people have to physically write in her name, and if Christine O'Connell is defeated in Delaware, it will mark two races in which assaults on Republican incumbents backfired.  In Delaware, O'Donnell defeated Republican Congressman Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination.  But Castle would have easily won the seat – he was way ahead in the polls – and now O'Donnell is way behind.

Alaska and Delaware may well provide much for us to chew on the next day.  Insurgency has its place, but it can also prove terribly self-destructive, and care must be taken.  Both Miller and O'Donnell are Tea Party candidates, as is Sharron Angle, who is struggling to defeat Harry Reid in Nevada, a race the GOP thought it had put away earlier this year, before Angle, a controversial candidate, was nominated in a surprise primary finish.  (If current trends hold, and we get an honest count, Angle should still squeeze by.)

Elections are about winning.  There is no prize for second place.  Let's remember that Tuesday night.

October 28, 2010     Permalink

KIRK GAINING IN ILLINOIS – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  Perhaps the most symbolic race Tuesday will be the one for the Senate seat from Illinois previously held by Barack Obama.  For Republicans to take it would be whipped cream on the cake. 

And Republican Congressman Mark Kirk appears to be gaining.  The latest Rasmussen poll has him up four over Dem challenger Alexi Giannoulias.  A Chicago Tribune poll has Kirk up three.

The crocodile in the room, of course, is voter fraud.  Democrats want badly to hold this seat.  It would be an embarrassment to lose the Obama seat.  So, the faithful will go all out on election day to insure the proper outcome.  It is a rule of politics in Illinois that a Republican must win a clean, convincing victory to win at all.  A narrow victory of, say, two points, is easily overcome by the "finding" of ballots in hidden cabinets in Chicago.  Must not disenfranchise those voters, especially the ones who became deceased 20 years ago.

Also, reports from Chicago tell of an inordinate number of vote mishaps and the possible inability to count military ballots, which usually tilt Republican.

So, on election night, hope for a Kirk victory too large to neutralize by the Chicago school of arithmetic.  It looks like it may be happening.

October 28, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:32 A.M. ET: 

UNITED NATIONS, Oct. 27 (UPI) -- The United Nations acknowledged Wednesday it has been battling bedbugs in furniture at its New York headquarters for months. 

They're generally called ambassadors.

October 28, 2010     Permalink

ENOUGH OF THIS ALREADY – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  One of the saddest things about the current political picture is the nation's racial divide.  Look, we understand why African Americans would want to cheer Obama on.  It's a natural reaction to "one of our own."  But there simply is a point where people must let go and judge a man by his record.  From CBS News:

While Mr. Obama's approval rating among Americans overall has been mixed for a few months now, he receives nearly universal support from African Americans, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll.

Nine in 10 African Americans approve of the job he is doing overall, and as many are satisfied with his presidency. Just 37 percent of white voters approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing.

This divide is dangerous to the country.

Additionally, nearly nine in 10 black voters are optimistic about the next two years of his presidency, according to the poll, conducted Oct. 22 - 26.

As they generally do, most black voters will support Democratic candidates for Congress in next week's elections. Two thirds of them say that even though Mr. Obama is not on the ballot this year, theirs will be a vote in support of him.

So sad.  This is one of the reasons the Democrats take African Americans for granted.  They simply go along.

The poll also shows that more blacks than whites are optimistic about the future and think that life for the next generation of Americans will be better than it is now.

Mr. Obama receives high marks from African Americans on just about every issue.

As many as 88 percent of African Americans approve of the job he is doing handling the economy, compared to just 33 percent of whites. While most say the economy is bad, more African Americans than whites say it is in good shape now.

COMMENT:  If African Americans would think more independently, the parties would have to compete for their votes and they'd be better off.  This is pure racial cheerleading, and, again, while understandable, it does nobody any good.

October 28, 2010      Permalink

BE CAREFUL – THE THOUGHT POLICE ARE LISTENING – AT 9:02 A.M. ET:  There has been a major new terror arrest.  From Fox News:

A Virginia man has been arrested for allegedly trying to help Al Qaeda plan multiple bombings around the nation's capital, according to U.S. officials.

Farooque Ahmed, 34, of Ashburn, Va., was arrested today by the FBI and charged with providing material support to terrorists and collecting information for a terrorist attack.

Make no judgments.  Do not think.  The fact that his name is Farooque Ahmed means nothing.  I know a lot of people by that name.  Don't you? 

“It’s chilling that a man from Ashburn is accused of casing rail stations with the goal of killing as many Metro riders as possible through simultaneous bomb attacks,” said Neil MacBride, the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia. “Today’s arrest highlights ... our ability to find those seeking to harm U.S. citizens and neutralize them before they can act."

According to an indictment filed in U.S. Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, between April 2010 and Oct. 25, Ahmed repeatedly met with individuals he thought were affiliated with Al Qaeda to discuss "jihad."
On May 15, in a hotel room in Sterling, Va., Ahmed told one individual that he might be ready to travel overseas to conduct jihad, but only after he completed the Hajj pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in November, according to the indictment.

Rotten, fascist, militarist Fox News.  Mentioning the guy's religion.  No wonder they hired Juan Williams.

In addition, he agreed to watch and photograph Arlington Cemetery Metrorail station and a hotel in Washington, D.C., in order to obtain information about their security and busiest periods.

COMMENT:  We're sure this is a cultural misunderstanding brought about by the fact that all FBI agents come from one little town in Nebraska.  That's the source of the trouble. 

Nothing to see here, nothing to see. 

(But I recommend you travel by car.)

October 28, 2010      Permalink

STABILITY, FIVE DAYS OUT – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Searching all the polls and late political reports this morning, the word "stability" stands out.

This election seems to have been cast, if not in stone, at least in strong plaster of Paris.  There are really no major changes in the polls.  Virtually all prognosticators are predicting a major Republican victory in the House and the retirement of Nancy Pelosi from the speakership.  While a few brave souls, like Dick Morris, are still predicting a GOP takeover of the Senate, most analysts are flashing a yellow light.  Close, but no takeover.

Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, is out this morning with his final predictions.  He predicts a gain of 55 seats for the Republicans in the House.  As to the Senate:

We have never gotten to +10, the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate, and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us, the number of GOP gains looks to be +8. Ten was always a stretch.

However, Sabato gives us this fascinating tidbit:

In our pre-Labor Day analysis, however, we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II, the House has changed parties six times, and in every case, the Senate switched, too. In five of the six cases, most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly, including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night, this could be it, despite the pre-election odds against it.

And The Weekly Standard's Jeffrey H. Anderson expands on the notion:

A close look at the Senate polls suggests that they are likely understating the probability of Republican victories. Most seem to be under-sampling either Republicans, independents, or both. As a result, in 10 of 12 key Senate races, the Republican candidate’s likelihood of winning appears to be greater than what the polls are registering.

Nothing much to add at this hour.  In six days we'll be reviewing the results.

October 28, 2010     Permalink

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2010

MORE BAD NEWS FOR THE DEMS – AT 8:18 P.M. ET:  From CBS News:

With the midterm elections less than a week away, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds that Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats in the generic House ballot. Forty-six percent of likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while 40 percent say they will vote Democrat.

The advantage can be attributed in large part to independents, who are breaking hard for the GOP. Forty-seven percent of independent likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while just 32 percent plan to vote Democrat. Seventeen percent haven't made up their minds.

More than four in five Democrats and Republicans, meanwhile, say they are sticking with their party.

COMMENT:  Now, what does that tell us?  It tells us that the key political objective of the Republican Party after the election is to hang onto those independents and build strength among them. 

American elections are won in the middle.  They aren't won on the fringes.  Neither the far right nor the far left understand that, or even care.  We have to understand it, and we have to care. 

October 27, 2010       Permalink

ANOTHER CHARGE – AT 8:11 P.M. ET:   We're going to monitor, to the degree possible, the voter fraud charges that are bound to pop up in the next week, especially in large cities, where residents can visit with their deceased aunts and uncles on election day, simply by meeting them at the polls.  Here's a new one:

A trio of Bucks County residents backed by the county Republican committee say they have evidence linking Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy's campaign to a scheme to flood the county voter registration office with fraudulent applications for absentee ballots.

In a petition filed Tuesday, county Republicans say the name of Murphy's campaign manager appeared on a Bristol post office box where voters were urged in a series of letters paid for by the state Democratic Committee to send absentee ballot applications.

The county Republicans submitted with the petition a photograph of a note inside the mailbox that said, "Tim Percico and Paul Hampel only pick up mail." Tim Persico is Murphy's campaign manager, although his name is misspelled in the note. Hampel is a volunteer for the Democratic state committee who said he collects mail from the box.

While county and state Democratic officials denied involvement in the letter campaign or refused to discuss it, Persico said Tuesday that the "PA Vote 2010" project that paid for the letters is a partnership between Murphy's campaign and the state Democrats.

COMMENT:  We have no independent knowledge of this, but charges of fraud are already emerging, and all of them are being made by Republicans.

October 27, 2010      Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 6:03 A.M. ET:  We like to remind our readers that there is a world beyond our elections, and it is sometimes grim.  The New York Post, in an excellent editorial, reviews some disturbing developments in our approach to Iran.   These slipped by in the last few days: 

Yesterday was just another day in the Middle East, Obamanauts would have you believe.

Iran began fueling the core of its first nuclear reactor, but that's no big deal, they say. The Bushehr plant will be in full swing in months, but pay no heed.

Worry-warts are supposed to relax, because Russia is supplying the enriched fuel that powers its reactor. Moscow is meant to supply outside oversight.

That's reassuring.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized the Bushehr arrangement as "premature" in March during a trip to Russia.

But now she can't even manage a whimper. Clinton said yesterday the US is concerned solely by hidden nuke sites.

"Iran is entitled to the peaceful use of nuclear power," she said. "They are not entitled to a nuclear-weapons program."

But Bushehr only legitimizes Iran's own enrichment activity, which is conducted deep underground and away from the prying eyes of UN nuke inspectors.

Clinton has glossed over a terrible truth: The Obama administration now considers Iran a fellow nuclear power -- one as yet unarmed, yet someday soon, perhaps, a nuclear equal, fully armed.

COMMENT:  The editorial is correct.  What we're seeing is the gradual collapse of American power in the Mideast, something no doubt welcome in the leftist wing of the Democratic Party.

I'm surprised to see Hillary Clinton going along with this, unless she plans some grand exit before the 2012 election.  Our policy toward Iran is a failure, and she must know it. 

The first key question:  What will Israel do once it realizes that Barack Obama has no intention of stopping Iran?

The second key question:  Will this directionless policy change after next week's election?

There's a lot riding on the answers.

October 27, 2010       Permalink

WE WON'T HAVE GRAYSON TO KICK AROUND ANYMORE – AT 5:58 A.M. ET:  If there is one member of Congress who could easily win the title of Mr. Uncongeniality, it's Democrat Alan Grayson of Florida. 

No doubt you've seen some of Grayson's more obnoxious outings on TV, such as the time he accused Republicans of wanting people to die, rather than provide them with medical care.  And then there's Grayson's recent TV ad, deemed by some observers the most offensive of the season, in which he carefully edited tapes of his opponent to make the poor man say the exact opposite of what he actually said. 

But Florida voters have caught on:

Holding a steady 7-point lead over a controversial and increasingly malodorous incumbent, Republican Daniel Webster is poised to knock out U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.

Webster, a former state senator, leads Grayson, D-Orlando, 48-41. Florida TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire garnered 4 percent, No Party Affiliation candidate George Metcalfe got 1 percent, and 5 percent of respondents were undecided.

In a previous poll, conducted Sept. 25, Webster led Grayson 43-36, an identical 7-point margin.

"Webster has to be the favorite here. Grayson has failed to turn his negative image around, and is still viewed in a negative light by a 55-38 margin," said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted both polls. "This means Grayson has very little if any room to grow."

COMMENT:  One of the great myths is that Americans are uninformed.  In fact, many Americans are quite well informed.  In this case, the residents of Florida's 8th Congressional District know well the mean-spirited and dishonest antics of their current congressman, and seem determined to make a change.

Grayson, by the way, has an outstanding academic record, which shows that academic achievement isn't enough when the measure of a man is taken.  Someone tell the president.

October 27, 2010      Permalink

OH, MAKE IT SO, LORDY, MAKE IT SO – AT 5:47 A.M. ET:  It is already being asked:  What will Queen Nancy do after next week's election, when the pink slip is slipped under her door?  Answers are starting to be suggested:

Democrats on Capitol Hill and K Street are increasingly convinced that Speaker Nancy Pelosi would have little interest in being Minority Leader -- and may start preparing to leave Congress altogether -- if Republicans win the House next week.

Pelosi and her allies adamantly refuse to entertain questions about a possible Democratic minority. But Democratic sources say they have a hard time imagining the 70-year-old, independently wealthy California Democrat would want to return to the less-powerful post that she held for four years before becoming Speaker in 2007, particularly after having spent the past four years driving the Congressional agenda.

Should Republicans sweep into power on Nov. 2, the pivotal question that some Democrats have begun contemplating is one of timing: Does Pelosi step aside immediately, or does she stick around for a few months as Minority Leader to help smooth the transition to her successor? Both scenarios assume Pelosi heads for the exits within a few weeks or months.

COMMENT:  Sounds logical.  At one time speakers like the great Democrat, Sam Rayburn, or the great Republican, Joe Martin, would stay in Congress if the majority changed hands, waiting for their next turn.  That has not been the recent example.  There's a time to get offstage, and Nancy's time has come.  Her agent might look for nightclub work.

October 27, 2010      Permalink

GOP BLOWOUT PREDICTED BY "THE HILL" - AT 5:41 A.M. ET:  "The Hill" newspaper, an authoritative inside-the-Beltway sheet read by political pros, isn't holding back on its predictions for next week:

Republicans are headed for a blowout election win that seems certain to seize more than enough seats to knock out the Democrats and take control of the House.

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.

The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).
Of the 42 districts polled for The Hill, all but two of which are currently Democratic, 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven, and four were tied. In addition, there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they weren’t polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups, plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play.

And...

One of the most striking findings from The Hill’s polling is that voter opinions have remained rock-solid over four weeks, particularly among independents.

In the overwhelming majority of districts, independent voters are breaking for Republican challengers while expressing widespread disapproval of Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress.

COMMENT:  This is pretty much in line with what we're reading, although some political observers are urging caution.  Remember, no votes have actually been counted yet. 

It is in the Senate where GOP dreams may be snipped a bit.  A combination of weak candidates and a sometimes incoherent message will make it hard for the Republicans to run the table and take control of the upper house.  Most estimates, as of right now, have the new Senate dividing about 52-48 in favor of the Dems.  That would still mean a gain of seven for the GOP and would make it virtually impossible for the Democrats to get anything crazy through the Senate, since the more moderate Dems owe nothing to the current Democratic leadership and could defect on measures that are unpopular back home.

October 27, 2010     Permalink