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ELECTION - 4 days from today

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2010

CHRISTINE SURGES – AT 7:25 P.M. ET:  It's probably too late, but new polls show a surge for Christine O'Donnell in Delaware.  This is what happened in her primary campaign against Congressman Mike Castle

In the past two weeks, Republican Christine O’Donnell has narrowed Democrat Chris Coons’ lead in Delaware’s U.S. Senate race from 19 points to 10 points. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds Coons has the support of 51% of likely voters to 41% for O’Donnell. Two weeks ago, this race stood at 57% to 38%.

O’Donnell has actually pulled into a 49% to 43% lead in the southern part of the state (i.e. Kent and Sussex counties). Two weeks ago, this region of the state was divided at 47% for O’Donnell and 46% for Coons. The Democrat continues to hold a sizable advantage in New Castle County, but the current 56% to 36% margin is down from the 63% to 33% edge he held earlier this month.

O’Donnell has also made gains among independent voters, now leading Coons 47% to 42% among this voting bloc. Two weeks ago, she trailed in the independent vote by 51% to 41%.

“While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O’Donnell was able to shave nine points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

COMMENT:  And that's the tragedy – that "unqualified" number, a result of the unprecedented assault on O'Donnell that followed her victory in the Republican primary.  Part of that assault came from the Republican establishment, which should be ashamed of itself. 

I've seen Christine O'Donnell interviewed.  She may not be the deepest thinker in the Universe, but she makes a lot more sense than the demigod in the White House.  If she weren't an attractive female, she wouldn't have been treated so shabbily.  Sarah Palin must understand. 

O'Donnell will probably lose on Tuesday, but coming close will be its own revenge.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

TERROR LATEST – AT 7:07 P.M. ET:  It's been a one-story day, and the storty wasn't the election.  Suspicious packages coming from Yemen, that great island of civilization, were detected, apparently after an intelligence tip from the Saudis.  Many cargo planes were grounded and inspected at airports here, in Britain, and in the Mideast.  At least some of the packages appear to have been aimed at synagogues in Chicago.

Explosives and electronics were found, leading some experts to suggest that this was a live attack, not a dry run.

I'm surprised that analysts didn't note the closeness to our election, nor did they note that Chicago is the president's home city.

Obama made a serious statement about the threat from the White House...but will be in Chicago tomorrow to campaign. 

It may be vulgar, but inevitably we must ask whether this incident, and the intense coverage it received today, will affect the outcome on Tuesday.  No one can answer that with any integrity.  Normally, attacks benefit the president in power, as there's a rally-'round-the-flag moment.  But these attacks failed, and Obama isn't exactly identified with a hard line on Islamic extremism.  Could the GOP benefit?  Again, who knows?  My own hunch, only a hunch, is that this won't have any effect at all, as there were no casualties.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

SHOTS FIRED, SHOTS FIRED – AT 9:36 A.M. ET:  This has been under the radar this week, but there apparently is a serial shooter at work in the Washington area.  You never know what the person, or persons, will do next, so we present the story:

Authorities are investigating shots that were were fired overnight at the National Museum of the Marine Corps in Prince William County.

This is the second time the facility has been targeted this month.

The building was closed when an unknown number of shots were fired, according to Prince William County Police spokeswoman Sgt. Kim Chinn, and nobody was injured.

Investigators were still on the scene Friday morning, according to Officer Jonathan Perok, a county police spokesman.

The new investigation comes a day after authorities, citing ballistics testing, announced that that the same gun was used to fire shots at the museum Oct. 17, the Pentagon on Oct. 19 and a vacant Marine Corps recruiting station in Chantilly this week.

No one was injured in any of the confirmed shootings.

At the moment, the new investigation at the museum is being handled by Prince William police. FBI agents, however, are enroute to Triangle "to pick up some evidence of something that happened" overnight, FBI spokeswoman Katherine Schweit said Friday morning. Schweit would not provide more details about the evidence.

COMMENT:  We are reminded of the beltway killers of several years ago, who terrorized Washington.  So far this shooter has fired only at buildings, and no one has been hurt.  But the targets have been militarily related.  We'll follow the story.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:59 A.M. ET:

From London's Daily Mail:   Mohammed has become the most popular name for newborn boys in Britain. 

I will not stand for a detective named Mohammed Holmes.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  The latest economic report, just released, will not provide any comfort for the Democrats.  From The New York Times:

The United States economy grew at an annual rate of 2 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday, as it struggles to gain any momentum for a sustained recovery.

That estimated number matched the consensus forecasts for the gross domestic product, and is the barest tick up from the second quarter...

...And an economy growing at a sluggish, 2 percent, most economists agree, cannot produce nearly the demand needed to bring down the nation’s painfully high 9.6 percent unemployment rate. The economy needs to produce 130,000 to 150,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with population growth, a number it has not hit in many months.

COMMENT:  It just ain't working.  And the psychological effect on the public may be worse than the numerical effect.  People are discouraged.  Even those with some disposable income don't want to spend it.  There is fear for the future.  And we have a president who is spending more time on the campaign trail and doing talk shows than doing his job.

But the pressure is also on Republicans.  If they win strongly on Tuesday night, they then must start to produce, something that for the GOP, in recent Congresses, has been a strange concept.  A fire must be lit, as we move immediately into the 2012 campaign.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

AND IN THE OTHER WASHINGTON – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  Another one of the most closely watched Senate races promises to give us real excitement Tuesday night.

In Washington state, Republican candidate Dino Rossi is closing fast on three-term Democrat Patty Murray, whose record of accomplishment can be written on the head of a pin, with generous margins to spare.  Murray is running, in the very blue state of Washington, as an unabashed supporter of Barack Obama.  It isn't helping.

RealClear politics shows that an average of recent polls has Murray up only half a point.  The latest poll, by Rasmussen, actually has Rossi up a point.  And, once again, the challenger benefits from Republican enthusiasm.

Washington has a mail-in voter system, so the result may not be known for days or weeks.  But for a Republican to do this well in such a blue state tells us where America is this year.

If we can't knock off Barbara Boxer in California, Murray is a suitable consolation prize.  But Boxer's departure would have deeper spiritual meaning. 

October 29, 2010       Permalink

THE RIGHT ANGLE – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  With four days to go, one of the most watched races in the country seems to be getting clearer to pollsters and analysts. 

In Nevada, Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle is increasing her lead over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  That lead now stands at four points.  That isn't spectacular, but all the major polls are now consistent in reporting that Angle is ahead.  She has been a problematical candidate, with a record of gaffes and seemingly extreme statements about items like Social Security.  However, she's improved as a candidate as the weeks have gone on, and did very well against Reid in debate.  She also has the benefit of Republican enthusiasm. 

The press is reporting that, anticipating a Reid defeat, Senators Chuck Schumer of New York and Dick Durbin of Illinois are already fighting to succeed him as majority leader.  In politics, you don't wait for the body to be buried.  You simply step over it, or kick it aside.  Both Schumer and Durbin are skillful politicians and would probably give a more vigorous image to the majority leader position.  Reid's image is somewhere between death and decomposition.

October 29, 2010     Permalink

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2010

OH IT'S TRULY SAD THAT WE DON'T MEET HIS STANDARDS – AT 9:22 P.M. ET:  What's with these Democrats?  Their entire political approach seems to boil down to, "We're smart, everyone else is stupid."  Now the clown prince of elitism, John Kerry, gives his own assessment of our lowly status:

BOSTON—Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry unleashed a broadside Thursday against Republican "obstructionism," saying the GOP and its talk-show allies have created a "period of know-nothingism" in the country.

With his party braced for defeats in the midterm elections, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee told the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce that a Republican machine -- fueled by talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck -- has undermined progress and misled the public into believing Democrats created the country's current economic problems.

Kerry singled out attacks on an energy deal he was negotiating with Republicans, which fell apart amid criticism of an emissions-trading program. Some 20 Senate candidates are now opposing the proposed deal in their campaigns.

"It's absurd. We've lost our minds," said a clearly exasperated Kerry. "We're in a period of know-nothingism in the country, where truth and science and facts don't weigh in. It's all short-order, lowest common denominator, cheap-seat politics."

COMMENT:  Yeah, right.  We're all that dumb.  We all reject "truth and science and facts."  No, sir.  We just don't think you've got the facts on your side.  And as for science, perhaps you'd like to explain the growing number of first-class scientific minds who are rejecting the glib "climate change" models that never seem to work out.

John Kerry has made a career out of being wrong.  He once went to Moscow and concluded that the Soviet Union was weak because half the lights were out.  Of course, he never was taken to a missile-launching submarine, where, I assure you, the lights worked, just as the Soviet tanks had worked (superbly) in World War II. 

It's not "elites" we oppose.  It's their arrogant, I-can't-be-wrong attitude.  It's the Kerrys we don't like.

October 28, 2010      Permalink

THE MESS IN ALASKA – AT 7:09 P.M. ET:  We haven't paid much attention to Alaska, buy should have.  You'll recall that insurgent Joe Miller defeated incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski for the GOP Senate nomination.  Miller had the support of Sarah Palin.  Murkowski then came back to the race as a write-in candidate.

Well, Miller hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.  He strikes many people as abrasive, he hid some embarrassing moments in his past, and there is an aura of unattractiveness about him.  Now, a new poll shows him slipping from first to third place, just five days before the election.  And who is in the lead?  Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski.  If she wins as a write-in, she would still be considered a Republican senator, but her victory would be a severe blow, in her home state, to Sarah Palin.  Murkowski is a blood opponent of Palin, who defeated Murkowski's father for the governorship.  Miller's decline is trouble for Sarah.

If Murkowski wins, and it's a big "if" since people have to physically write in her name, and if Christine O'Connell is defeated in Delaware, it will mark two races in which assaults on Republican incumbents backfired.  In Delaware, O'Donnell defeated Republican Congressman Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination.  But Castle would have easily won the seat – he was way ahead in the polls – and now O'Donnell is way behind.

Alaska and Delaware may well provide much for us to chew on the next day.  Insurgency has its place, but it can also prove terribly self-destructive, and care must be taken.  Both Miller and O'Donnell are Tea Party candidates, as is Sharron Angle, who is struggling to defeat Harry Reid in Nevada, a race the GOP thought it had put away earlier this year, before Angle, a controversial candidate, was nominated in a surprise primary finish.  (If current trends hold, and we get an honest count, Angle should still squeeze by.)

Elections are about winning.  There is no prize for second place.  Let's remember that Tuesday night.

October 28, 2010     Permalink

KIRK GAINING IN ILLINOIS – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  Perhaps the most symbolic race Tuesday will be the one for the Senate seat from Illinois previously held by Barack Obama.  For Republicans to take it would be whipped cream on the cake. 

And Republican Congressman Mark Kirk appears to be gaining.  The latest Rasmussen poll has him up four over Dem challenger Alexi Giannoulias.  A Chicago Tribune poll has Kirk up three.

The crocodile in the room, of course, is voter fraud.  Democrats want badly to hold this seat.  It would be an embarrassment to lose the Obama seat.  So, the faithful will go all out on election day to insure the proper outcome.  It is a rule of politics in Illinois that a Republican must win a clean, convincing victory to win at all.  A narrow victory of, say, two points, is easily overcome by the "finding" of ballots in hidden cabinets in Chicago.  Must not disenfranchise those voters, especially the ones who became deceased 20 years ago.

Also, reports from Chicago tell of an inordinate number of vote mishaps and the possible inability to count military ballots, which usually tilt Republican.

So, on election night, hope for a Kirk victory too large to neutralize by the Chicago school of arithmetic.  It looks like it may be happening.

October 28, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:32 A.M. ET: 

UNITED NATIONS, Oct. 27 (UPI) -- The United Nations acknowledged Wednesday it has been battling bedbugs in furniture at its New York headquarters for months. 

They're generally called ambassadors.

October 28, 2010     Permalink

ENOUGH OF THIS ALREADY – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  One of the saddest things about the current political picture is the nation's racial divide.  Look, we understand why African Americans would want to cheer Obama on.  It's a natural reaction to "one of our own."  But there simply is a point where people must let go and judge a man by his record.  From CBS News:

While Mr. Obama's approval rating among Americans overall has been mixed for a few months now, he receives nearly universal support from African Americans, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll.

Nine in 10 African Americans approve of the job he is doing overall, and as many are satisfied with his presidency. Just 37 percent of white voters approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing.

This divide is dangerous to the country.

Additionally, nearly nine in 10 black voters are optimistic about the next two years of his presidency, according to the poll, conducted Oct. 22 - 26.

As they generally do, most black voters will support Democratic candidates for Congress in next week's elections. Two thirds of them say that even though Mr. Obama is not on the ballot this year, theirs will be a vote in support of him.

So sad.  This is one of the reasons the Democrats take African Americans for granted.  They simply go along.

The poll also shows that more blacks than whites are optimistic about the future and think that life for the next generation of Americans will be better than it is now.

Mr. Obama receives high marks from African Americans on just about every issue.

As many as 88 percent of African Americans approve of the job he is doing handling the economy, compared to just 33 percent of whites. While most say the economy is bad, more African Americans than whites say it is in good shape now.

COMMENT:  If African Americans would think more independently, the parties would have to compete for their votes and they'd be better off.  This is pure racial cheerleading, and, again, while understandable, it does nobody any good.

October 28, 2010      Permalink

BE CAREFUL – THE THOUGHT POLICE ARE LISTENING – AT 9:02 A.M. ET:  There has been a major new terror arrest.  From Fox News:

A Virginia man has been arrested for allegedly trying to help Al Qaeda plan multiple bombings around the nation's capital, according to U.S. officials.

Farooque Ahmed, 34, of Ashburn, Va., was arrested today by the FBI and charged with providing material support to terrorists and collecting information for a terrorist attack.

Make no judgments.  Do not think.  The fact that his name is Farooque Ahmed means nothing.  I know a lot of people by that name.  Don't you? 

“It’s chilling that a man from Ashburn is accused of casing rail stations with the goal of killing as many Metro riders as possible through simultaneous bomb attacks,” said Neil MacBride, the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia. “Today’s arrest highlights ... our ability to find those seeking to harm U.S. citizens and neutralize them before they can act."

According to an indictment filed in U.S. Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, between April 2010 and Oct. 25, Ahmed repeatedly met with individuals he thought were affiliated with Al Qaeda to discuss "jihad."
On May 15, in a hotel room in Sterling, Va., Ahmed told one individual that he might be ready to travel overseas to conduct jihad, but only after he completed the Hajj pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in November, according to the indictment.

Rotten, fascist, militarist Fox News.  Mentioning the guy's religion.  No wonder they hired Juan Williams.

In addition, he agreed to watch and photograph Arlington Cemetery Metrorail station and a hotel in Washington, D.C., in order to obtain information about their security and busiest periods.

COMMENT:  We're sure this is a cultural misunderstanding brought about by the fact that all FBI agents come from one little town in Nebraska.  That's the source of the trouble. 

Nothing to see here, nothing to see. 

(But I recommend you travel by car.)

October 28, 2010      Permalink

STABILITY, FIVE DAYS OUT – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Searching all the polls and late political reports this morning, the word "stability" stands out.

This election seems to have been cast, if not in stone, at least in strong plaster of Paris.  There are really no major changes in the polls.  Virtually all prognosticators are predicting a major Republican victory in the House and the retirement of Nancy Pelosi from the speakership.  While a few brave souls, like Dick Morris, are still predicting a GOP takeover of the Senate, most analysts are flashing a yellow light.  Close, but no takeover.

Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, is out this morning with his final predictions.  He predicts a gain of 55 seats for the Republicans in the House.  As to the Senate:

We have never gotten to +10, the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate, and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us, the number of GOP gains looks to be +8. Ten was always a stretch.

However, Sabato gives us this fascinating tidbit:

In our pre-Labor Day analysis, however, we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II, the House has changed parties six times, and in every case, the Senate switched, too. In five of the six cases, most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly, including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night, this could be it, despite the pre-election odds against it.

And The Weekly Standard's Jeffrey H. Anderson expands on the notion:

A close look at the Senate polls suggests that they are likely understating the probability of Republican victories. Most seem to be under-sampling either Republicans, independents, or both. As a result, in 10 of 12 key Senate races, the Republican candidate’s likelihood of winning appears to be greater than what the polls are registering.

Nothing much to add at this hour.  In six days we'll be reviewing the results.

October 28, 2010     Permalink