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ELECTION - 3 days from today

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2010

ELECTION UPDATE – AT 8:47 P.M. ET:  Very little hard news to report tonight.  It's the last weekend of campaigning. 

There are, however, these things:

The Pennsylvania race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak, one of the most watched of the Senate races, appears to be tightening again.  Republican Toomey got a big scare about ten days ago, when a good part of his lead seemed to disappear.  Then he rallied.  A new tracker by Morning Call, though, shows him up only two points.  It had been seven a few days ago.  Could be statistical noise, but this is still a cliffhanger.

Democrats are encouraged by late pre-election-day voting in Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trying to fend off a challenge by Republican Sharron Angle.  There was a Democratic voting surge on Friday.  But observers caution that Angle's lead among independents may make the major difference on election day.  Another very close one.

Fox News sums up the overall picture: 

Once the dust settles on Election Day, Republicans could very well be in control of the House if not the Senate as well as most governorships across the country, benefiting from a wave of voter anger over the economy and profound pessimism about the future.

While big-state races in Florida, Ohio, Illinois and California remain intensely competitive into the campaign's final hours, the Democratic effort to retain control of the House is a lost cause, according to political strategists in both parties and public opinion polls.

Republicans must win 40 seats to gain control of the House and 10 to take the Senate. Most political analysts predict Republicans will win more than 50 seats in the House but under 10 in the Senate.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, predicts Republicans will capture the House but fall short in the Senate by two seats.

But he told Fox News that "the big surprise on election night could be a Republican takeover of the Senate because all six times since World War II when the House has split parties one way or the other, the Senate has flipped the very same way even when it could not be seen or predicted in advance."

"I've been through a lot of election nights, I can't remember one when the experts weren't surprised by a dozen or more races," he said.

COMMENT:  Remember that, under the Constitution, all money bills must originate in the House.  So GOP control of that body will probably end Obama's freewheeling spending programs.

And what will Obama do?  Press reports indicate he'll turn to federal regulations to try to get his program through without Congressional action.  It might work, although regulatory decisions are subject to court challenge.

If the GOP has, say, 47 seats in the Senate, up from its current 41, that is enough to filibuster objectionable bills to death, even if three or four defectors vote with the other side.  You need 60 votes to stop a filibuster, and the Dems will have only 53, assuming all their troops stay loyal.

Interesting times coming up.

October 30, 2010      Permalink

TERROR UPDATE – AT 8:23 P.M. ET:  An arrest has been made in the "toner bomb" plot, broken up yesterday.  And we learn more about the potential of the bombs involved.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON — The authorities in Yemen on Saturday arrested a woman suspected of sending two powerful bombs on cargo planes bound for the United States, as the investigation into the terror plot continued to unfold on three continents...

...A defense lawyer who has been in contact with the Yemeni woman’s family confirmed the arrest, describing her as a 22 year-old engineering student at Sana University. She was arrested in her house along with her mother, who is 45, the lawyer, Abdul Rahman Barham said...

...As investigators conducted forensic analysis of the two bombs and tried to piece together a foiled terrorism plot, American officials said evidence was mounting that the top leadership of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, including the radical American-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, was behind the attempted attacks.

And...

In further evidence that Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen is steadily improving its abilities to strike on American soil, American officials said Saturday that the powerful bombs were expertly constructed and unusually sophisticated...

...“The wiring of the device indicates that this was done by professionals,” said one official involved in the investigation, speaking on condition of anonymity because the inquiry was continuing. “It was set up so that if you scan it, all the printer components would look right.”

And...

Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain said on Saturday that the parcel bomb bound for the United States and intercepted in England was designed to explode while the plane was flying.

COMMENT:  More will come out.  Once again, a combination of luck and the good work of intelligence services saved us.  But it's only a matter of time before a plot succeeds.  These people are getting better and better, if the sophistication of the devices is used as a measure.

Oh, by the way, earlier this week Betty McCollum, the hard-left Democratic congresswoman from Minnesota, announced that al Qaeda was no threat to the United States.  And also, earlier this week, the head of British Airways said American airline screening was too rigorous.  Some people have an exquisite sense of timing.

October 30, 2010     Permalink

GOODBYE, WHEELS – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  I don't think it's fair to say that this marks decline, for products come and go.  But it certainly, for those of us of a certain age, marks transition.  From The New York Times:

DETROIT — Pontiac, the brand that invented the muscle car under its flamboyant engineer John Z. DeLorean, helped Burt Reynolds elude Sheriff Justice in “Smokey and the Bandit” and taught baby boomers to salivate over horsepower, but produced mostly forgettable cars for their children, will endure a lonely death on Sunday after about 40 million in sales. 

It was 84 years old. The cause of death was in dispute. Fans said Pontiac’s wounds were self-inflicted, while General Motors blamed a terminal illness contracted during last year’s bankruptcy. Pontiac built its last car nearly a year ago, but the official end was set for Oct. 31, when G.M.’s agreements with Pontiac dealers expire.

“They were C.P.R.-ing a corpse for a long time,” said Larry Kummer, a retired graphic artist who has owned more than two dozen Pontiacs and runs the Web site PontiacRegistry.com.

COMMENT:  Ah, the memories.  A Pontiac was my parents' first family car after World War II.  You had to wait months to get one.  It was a big red coupe with huge whitewall tires, and it had that classic Pontiac wide stripe right down the center of the hood, and down the trunk.  Of course, my parents immediately took a picture of me behind the wheel, even though I barely made it up to window height. 

And General Motors promised that, if we were good, and saved, we could "move up" next time to an Oldsmobile.  I think we did, but only after a couple of romances with Chrysler products. 

In those days most people we knew kept cars no more than three years, and had to change the oil every thousand miles.  An average car cost about $1,400.  Cars today are far better, and far safer, and the air conditioning system costs more than $1,400.

I'll miss the Pontys, especially that red model that came out the war plants that were rushed into conversion to produce cars for the masses.  No power steering.  No power brakes.  A tube radio that took forever to warm up while "The Lone Ranger" began his gallop on ABC, and a clock that, like most car clocks of the time, never worked. 

Gas:  Maybe twenty cents a gallon.

October 30, 200     Permalink

ELECTION LATEST – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  Some late developments from pollsters and observers:

Florida appears to be swinging heavily into the GOP column in the state's Senate race.  Marco Rubio is up by as much as 20 points over Charlie Crist.  If Rubio wins in a blowout Tuesday, he'll likely be first pick for the vice presidential slot on the 2012 GOP ticket. 

Joe Miller, the official GOP candidate for the Senate from Alaska, is in serious trouble, according to a new poll.  Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent senator, who lost the GOP nomination for her job to Miller, is surging as a write-in.  Sarah Palin went to Alaska to boost Miller, and, if Miller loses, it's a prestige blow to Palin.  Sarah will also be going to West Virginia to campaign for the GOP Senate candidate, John Raese, who is now slipping behind the popular Democratic governor, Joe Manchin, who is running as a staunch conservative who has barely heard of Barack Obama, or even Washington, D.C.

One thing about Sarah Palin – she puts herself on the line, and she can get burned.

Meanwhile, back at the executive mansion, Mr. Obama's approval rating has plunged to 41 percent in the latest Fox poll.  That is pathetic, and I think this latest drop may well involve resentment at the extent of the president's campaigning.  A few campaign trips, okay.  But this is getting nonstop, and involves vast public expenditures for Air Force The One, and extensive security.  And that doesn't include drinks and snacks.

October 30, 200       Permalink

THREE DAYS TO GO – at 8:40 a.m. ET:  There are questions as to whether yesterday's terror incident is truly over, or will extend through this weekend if more suspicious packages are found.

And with those questions inevitably come the assessments of how this incident might affect the outcome of Tuesday's elections.  Al Qaeda has struck just before election days in several countries, most notably in Spain in 2004, an attack on commuter trains that sent the pro-American government out of power and brought in a leftist government far less supportive of our war on terror. 

We said yesterday that we really didn't know how the incident will affect Tuesday's results, but that my hunch was that it would have no effect.  But watch for the possibility that the threat will continue, with new elements discovered, and Obama posing as commander-in-chief, possibly rushing back to Washington from a campaign trip.  Stranger things have happened in the last days of a campaign. 

Just make a note of the news coverage.  We have many Senate and House races with razor-thin margins.  Even Fox's Carl Cameron noted last night how many close races there are.  One incident, one factor, might move almost all of them in one direction on the last day.  This is inevitably speculation, but I wanted to bring it out.

October 30, 2010     Permalink

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2010

CHRISTINE SURGES – AT 7:25 P.M. ET:  It's probably too late, but new polls show a surge for Christine O'Donnell in Delaware.  This is what happened in her primary campaign against Congressman Mike Castle

In the past two weeks, Republican Christine O’Donnell has narrowed Democrat Chris Coons’ lead in Delaware’s U.S. Senate race from 19 points to 10 points. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds Coons has the support of 51% of likely voters to 41% for O’Donnell. Two weeks ago, this race stood at 57% to 38%.

O’Donnell has actually pulled into a 49% to 43% lead in the southern part of the state (i.e. Kent and Sussex counties). Two weeks ago, this region of the state was divided at 47% for O’Donnell and 46% for Coons. The Democrat continues to hold a sizable advantage in New Castle County, but the current 56% to 36% margin is down from the 63% to 33% edge he held earlier this month.

O’Donnell has also made gains among independent voters, now leading Coons 47% to 42% among this voting bloc. Two weeks ago, she trailed in the independent vote by 51% to 41%.

“While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O’Donnell was able to shave nine points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

COMMENT:  And that's the tragedy – that "unqualified" number, a result of the unprecedented assault on O'Donnell that followed her victory in the Republican primary.  Part of that assault came from the Republican establishment, which should be ashamed of itself. 

I've seen Christine O'Donnell interviewed.  She may not be the deepest thinker in the Universe, but she makes a lot more sense than the demigod in the White House.  If she weren't an attractive female, she wouldn't have been treated so shabbily.  Sarah Palin must understand. 

O'Donnell will probably lose on Tuesday, but coming close will be its own revenge.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

TERROR LATEST – AT 7:07 P.M. ET:  It's been a one-story day, and the storty wasn't the election.  Suspicious packages coming from Yemen, that great island of civilization, were detected, apparently after an intelligence tip from the Saudis.  Many cargo planes were grounded and inspected at airports here, in Britain, and in the Mideast.  At least some of the packages appear to have been aimed at synagogues in Chicago.

Explosives and electronics were found, leading some experts to suggest that this was a live attack, not a dry run.

I'm surprised that analysts didn't note the closeness to our election, nor did they note that Chicago is the president's home city.

Obama made a serious statement about the threat from the White House...but will be in Chicago tomorrow to campaign. 

It may be vulgar, but inevitably we must ask whether this incident, and the intense coverage it received today, will affect the outcome on Tuesday.  No one can answer that with any integrity.  Normally, attacks benefit the president in power, as there's a rally-'round-the-flag moment.  But these attacks failed, and Obama isn't exactly identified with a hard line on Islamic extremism.  Could the GOP benefit?  Again, who knows?  My own hunch, only a hunch, is that this won't have any effect at all, as there were no casualties.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

SHOTS FIRED, SHOTS FIRED – AT 9:36 A.M. ET:  This has been under the radar this week, but there apparently is a serial shooter at work in the Washington area.  You never know what the person, or persons, will do next, so we present the story:

Authorities are investigating shots that were were fired overnight at the National Museum of the Marine Corps in Prince William County.

This is the second time the facility has been targeted this month.

The building was closed when an unknown number of shots were fired, according to Prince William County Police spokeswoman Sgt. Kim Chinn, and nobody was injured.

Investigators were still on the scene Friday morning, according to Officer Jonathan Perok, a county police spokesman.

The new investigation comes a day after authorities, citing ballistics testing, announced that that the same gun was used to fire shots at the museum Oct. 17, the Pentagon on Oct. 19 and a vacant Marine Corps recruiting station in Chantilly this week.

No one was injured in any of the confirmed shootings.

At the moment, the new investigation at the museum is being handled by Prince William police. FBI agents, however, are enroute to Triangle "to pick up some evidence of something that happened" overnight, FBI spokeswoman Katherine Schweit said Friday morning. Schweit would not provide more details about the evidence.

COMMENT:  We are reminded of the beltway killers of several years ago, who terrorized Washington.  So far this shooter has fired only at buildings, and no one has been hurt.  But the targets have been militarily related.  We'll follow the story.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:59 A.M. ET:

From London's Daily Mail:   Mohammed has become the most popular name for newborn boys in Britain. 

I will not stand for a detective named Mohammed Holmes.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  The latest economic report, just released, will not provide any comfort for the Democrats.  From The New York Times:

The United States economy grew at an annual rate of 2 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday, as it struggles to gain any momentum for a sustained recovery.

That estimated number matched the consensus forecasts for the gross domestic product, and is the barest tick up from the second quarter...

...And an economy growing at a sluggish, 2 percent, most economists agree, cannot produce nearly the demand needed to bring down the nation’s painfully high 9.6 percent unemployment rate. The economy needs to produce 130,000 to 150,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with population growth, a number it has not hit in many months.

COMMENT:  It just ain't working.  And the psychological effect on the public may be worse than the numerical effect.  People are discouraged.  Even those with some disposable income don't want to spend it.  There is fear for the future.  And we have a president who is spending more time on the campaign trail and doing talk shows than doing his job.

But the pressure is also on Republicans.  If they win strongly on Tuesday night, they then must start to produce, something that for the GOP, in recent Congresses, has been a strange concept.  A fire must be lit, as we move immediately into the 2012 campaign.

October 29, 2010      Permalink

AND IN THE OTHER WASHINGTON – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  Another one of the most closely watched Senate races promises to give us real excitement Tuesday night.

In Washington state, Republican candidate Dino Rossi is closing fast on three-term Democrat Patty Murray, whose record of accomplishment can be written on the head of a pin, with generous margins to spare.  Murray is running, in the very blue state of Washington, as an unabashed supporter of Barack Obama.  It isn't helping.

RealClear politics shows that an average of recent polls has Murray up only half a point.  The latest poll, by Rasmussen, actually has Rossi up a point.  And, once again, the challenger benefits from Republican enthusiasm.

Washington has a mail-in voter system, so the result may not be known for days or weeks.  But for a Republican to do this well in such a blue state tells us where America is this year.

If we can't knock off Barbara Boxer in California, Murray is a suitable consolation prize.  But Boxer's departure would have deeper spiritual meaning. 

October 29, 2010       Permalink

THE RIGHT ANGLE – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  With four days to go, one of the most watched races in the country seems to be getting clearer to pollsters and analysts. 

In Nevada, Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle is increasing her lead over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  That lead now stands at four points.  That isn't spectacular, but all the major polls are now consistent in reporting that Angle is ahead.  She has been a problematical candidate, with a record of gaffes and seemingly extreme statements about items like Social Security.  However, she's improved as a candidate as the weeks have gone on, and did very well against Reid in debate.  She also has the benefit of Republican enthusiasm. 

The press is reporting that, anticipating a Reid defeat, Senators Chuck Schumer of New York and Dick Durbin of Illinois are already fighting to succeed him as majority leader.  In politics, you don't wait for the body to be buried.  You simply step over it, or kick it aside.  Both Schumer and Durbin are skillful politicians and would probably give a more vigorous image to the majority leader position.  Reid's image is somewhere between death and decomposition.

October 29, 2010     Permalink