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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2010

THE DOUBLE STANDARD, PLAIN AND SIMPLE – AT 7:28 P.M. ET:   What an example of the double standard in journalism, one standard for Republicans, another for Democrats.

Rep. Loretta Sanchez, Democrat of California, said something awful last week.  If she had been a Republican, she might have had to withdraw from public life, or at least suffer a period under a cloud.  But she's a Democrat, so, while there plenty of outrage in her congressional district, no one made any demands.  Now, after too much time has passed, she's finally apologized.  From Politics Daily:

Now things are getting tough. Locked in a tight re-election campaign against a Vietnamese-American Republican, Sanchez, who was born in California to Mexican parents, said in an interview with Univision TV earlier this month that the "Vietnamese and the Republicans" in her district were "trying to take away" her House seat after "we have done so much for our community."

Her remarks ignited the blogosphere and talk radio and angered residents of Santa Ana, which she represents and which has one of the country's oldest and largest Vietnamese communities. Conservative commentators joined the fray when her words were reported in the Orange County Register this week, and her opponent, a state assemblyman named Van Tran, lashed back, calling her remarks "offensive and wrong."

Poor Loretta, she was left with nothing to do but apologize. "I used a poor choice of words that some people have taken as offensive," she said at a news conference Friday afternoon. "I apologize for those remarks." But she didn't apologize for calling him "very anti-immigrant and very anti-Hispanic.''

COMMENT:  There is a long history of Democrats engaging in bigotry and getting away with it.  Jesse Jackson made openly anti-Semitic remarks and suffered not at all.  The late Sen. Robert Byrd used the "n" word in a statement, and it was hardly noticed.  And of course, there is Barack Obama, who described his grandmother as being like any other white woman.

No Republican could have made any of those statements and survived intact for more than a day.

I'm sure that the public eventually notices these things.

September 27, 2010      Permalink

IT'S COME TO THIS – IT'S DELIGHTFUL, IT'S DELOVELY – AT 7:07 P.M. ET:  Politics does indeed make strange bedfellows, and the beds get cozier and cozier during campaign season.  From The Hill:

A veteran Democratic incumbent facing a tough reelection challenge touted a relationship with President George W. Bush in a new campaign ad.

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) released a new campaign ad emphasizing his ties to the former Republican president at a time when most Democrats are pummeling Bush, and warning that GOP wins this fall would mean a return to Bush-era policies.

"When George Bush proposed a Medicare prescription drug benefit, Earl Pomeroy voted yes, putting seniors before party," the ad says, depicting Bush at a signing ceremony for Medicare Part D.

"Earl joined Republicans to fight internet predators; fighting for kids," the ad later says, playing up a bill to toughen laws against sex offenders.

The spot is an unusual effort by a veteran lawmaker, who was first elected in 1992, to embrace Republicans and, in particular, Bush.

North Dakota is a conservative-leaning state where Bush won reelection in 2004 with 63 percent of the vote.

COMMENT:  Ah, I have a dream today.  I have a dream that Barney Frank will invoke Ronald Reagan and Nancy Pelosi will recall with affection Barry Goldwater.  Oh yes, I have a dream today.

Well look, North Dakota is a good beginning.

September 27, 2010     Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:

WASHINGTON, Sept. 26 (UPI) -- U.S. President Barack Obama spent part of a drizzly Sunday playing a little basketball with his daughters Sasha and Malia.

Do you get the feeling this is where he gets his economic advice?

September 27, 2010      Permalink

IS IT GUY TIME? – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  We males have felt so oppressed, so downtrodden in recent years, so ignored by trendy journalists, that it's got to be time for a comeback.  Or at least a warm hand.  And maybe that time will come on election day.  The Politico reports on the half-important male vote, and where it's going:

Some of the most dramatic recent polls suggesting that a Republican “wave” will overtake Democratic majorities this year share a single ingredient: testosterone.

The gender gap that in 2008 resulted in 6 percent more men than women supporting Republican John McCain is likely to be even greater this year. But this time, evidence suggests Republican-leaning men are likely to prove the driving force behind a GOP surge.

Men are not only more loyal to the GOP than two years ago but also more motivated to vote, recent polls suggest. This year’s central issues are ones that politicians traditionally use to appeal to men, especially worries about budget deficits.

“Polls show some acceleration of the gender gap, and also, for the first time in a while, men seem more energized than women to turn out and vote,” said Mark Penn, a former campaign pollster for both Bill and Hillary Clinton.

And...

“There’s a bigger gender gap than I’m used to seeing,” said Quinnipiac pollster Doug Schwartz. “We’ve seen it in all our races.”

Other Quinnipiac polls have also found wide gender gaps that endure even with the large margins of error of subsamples, like one that found GOP Senate candidate Pat Toomey leading Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania, thanks to an 18-percentage-point margin among men.

COMMENT:  Some press reports indicate that women's groups are putting pressure on the Democratic Party to emphasize women's issues, but I wonder if it's a big too late and too obvious.  Also, "women's issues" has the tone, fairly or unfairly, of "left-wing issues," which may alienate independent voters still more.  Further, and our readers know this, millions of American women dissent from the standard positions of many "feminist" organizations, which may account for their lack of enthusiasm for the Obama line. 

Also, on national security, Obama is widely perceived as weak, a turn-off for men.  That cannot be reversed by election day.

September 27, 2010      Permalink

ELECTION RETURNS – VENEZUELA – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  They do actually have elections in Venezuela, although hefty doubts have been raised about the honesty of the count.  But this seems to be trending in the right direction.   It gives me special pleasure to quote Britain's left-wing paper, The Guardian, on this.  The old Marxist reporters must have choked on their own words:

Opponents of Hugo Chávez today made major gains in legislative elections that could weaken the president's dominant power in Venezuela.

The opposition overturned Chávez's two-thirds majority in the national assembly, and claimed to have won most of the popular vote. If confirmed, the result would mark a milestone.

The Democratic Unity coalition won at least 60 of 165 seats in the assembly – well short of a majority but enough to end Chávez's ability to appoint judges and other officials and to push through major laws.

The opposition said it had won 52% of the popular vote, but that controversial changes in electoral rules favouring rural areas, where Chávez is popular, meant that support failed to translate into proportional seats.

Of course, Chavez called it a victory.  What do you expect?

But remember, Chavez's Venezuela is a place where new rules suddenly pop up, making it more difficult for the opposition to operate.  I wouldn't be surprised if the 2012 elections in Venezuela are manipulated from the start.  And the leftists of the world will cheer.  And Hollywood will award Chavez a lifetime achievement award.

September 27, 2010      Permalink

FASCINATING ANALYSIS – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  We're being bombarded by poll numbers, including the "generic" number, measuring the percentage of those polled who would vote for a candidate of a particular party.

Andrew Breitbart's Big Government blog, written by Paul A. Rahe, has a fascinating analysis of the generic numbers, which should bring a smile to the face of our readers:

...when Glenn Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies ran a survey recently for the American Action Network, he made a discovery of great interest:

The generic ballot shows Republicans leading 44%-39%. Besides all of the usual regional crosstabs, we also broke it out by the type of district. We looked at the sample in the 66 Democratic INCUMBENT districts that Charlie Cook lists as either toss-up or leaning Democratic at the time of the survey. In that key crosstab of Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats, the Republican lead grows to 49%-31% on the generic ballot. That is a very powerful crosstab that says the wave is coming.

Among the remaining Democratic districts (Likely/Safe Dem, and open seats), the generic ballot is an unsurprisingly 33% GOP/51% Dem — a sign that the historically safe Dem seat will remain so, while the swing seats will be a bloodbath. By the way, in all of the GOP held seats, the generic is the reverse of the base Dem seats — 52% GOP/32% Dem. Very few, if any, Republican incumbents will be defeated.

Likewise, President Obama’s numbers with likely voters are similar to the national average — 46% approve/51% disapprove. However, in the Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats. he has a much worse 40% approve/57% disapprove. (Keep in mind, many of these Swing Seats are held by Democrats despite the fact that John McCain either won the district in 2008, or, even if losing, outperformed his national result.

Rahe's conclusion:

On 2 November, there is going to be an electoral revolution. I doubt that it will exceed the shift which took place in 1894 – when, in the wake of the Panic of 1893, Grover Cleveland’s Democratic Party split between its goldbug Bourbon wing and the populists who would later unite behind William Jennings Bryan and, in the midterm elections held that year, the Democrats lost 125 seats and the Republicans had a pickup of 130. But it may exceed the largest shift in the 20th century, when 101 seats changed hands in 1932.

Well, that's quite a tall order.  I'd be pleased just to see the GOP take the House.  But if Rahe, using the analysis above, is even close to being right, we may see a historic night on November 2nd.

You know that I'm always hesitant about predictions, but this is a nice way to start the week.

September 27, 2010      Permalink

BLUE MONDAY AT THE WHITE HOUSE – AT 8:01 A.M. ET:  The election will be held five weeks from tomorrow.  The president has been out campaigning, but it doesn't seem to help.

Mr. Obama has reached his lowest point yet in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.  Approve – 44.7%, disapprove – 51.1%, for a spread of 6.4%.

The numbers were derived by averaging the results from the latest major polls that measure presidential approval.  It is striking that average disapproval is now over 50%.  These are not "reelect" numbers.  If they continue past this election and into the presidential campaign, Mr. Obama will be in real, sustained trouble, and we might start hearing talk of an alternative Democratic nominee.  In other words, Ms. Hillary.

September 27, 2010     Permalink

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2010

SIGNS OF DESPERATION ALREADY? – AT 7:55 P.M. ET:  The Democratic Party is pursuing a campaign strategy that shows just how much progress American politics has made in the age of Obama:

WASHINGTON — Democratic candidates across the country are opening a fierce offensive of negative advertisements against Republicans, using lawsuits, tax filings, reports from the Better Business Bureau and even divorce proceedings to try to discredit their opponents and save their Congressional majority.

Opposition research and attack advertising are used in almost every election, but these biting ads are coming far earlier than ever before, according to party strategists. The campaign has intensified in the last two weeks as early voting begins in several states and as vulnerable incumbents try to fight off an onslaught of influences by outside groups.

As they struggle to break through with economic messages, many Democrats are deploying the fruits of a yearlong investigation into the business and personal histories of Republican candidates in an effort to plant doubts about them and avoid having races become a national referendum on the performance of President Obama and his party.

Yeah, that last part is a gem.  We must avoid any judgment of The One.  Well, it's religiously consistent.  We don't judge divine creatures.

A debate has broken out among some Democratic officials about the effectiveness — or wisdom — of running such pointedly negative advertisements with five weeks remaining in the campaign. But party strategists said candidates did not have the luxury of waiting until the final stretch to go negative, particularly if the goal is to localize the races.

I know, I know.  Sensing when to smear is such a fine art, and there just aren't enough practitioners to go around.  And you know whose fault that is?  BUSH!!

Republicans must counter every charge, and throw in plenty of their own.  Theirs is a target-rich environment.

September 26, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 7:15 P.M. ET: 

WASHINGTON: It's a bizarre example of juggling work and home life — a 37-year-old mother of two in the US robbed a bank on her way to pick up kids from school, a media report said.  Erica Anderson went into an Umpqua Bank branch in Grants Pass and handed the teller a note demanding cash with one special request — not to call the police for 15 minutes as she had to pick up her kids from school.

And people say we don't produce responsible mothers.  Nonsense. 

September 26, 2010      Permalink

OH JERUSALEM – AT 9:48 A.M. ET:  We haven't been discussing the Israel-Palestinian talks at Urgent Agenda because nothing much has happened.  No breakthroughs.  No agreements.  The talks may actually break down today.

The issue is Israeli settlements on the West Bank.  Israel recently imposed a moratorium on new construction in those settlements, the better to advance peace talks and satisfy Washington.  That moratorium expires tonight.  The Palestinians, in their usual blundering way – which has gotten them nothing in 62 years – are demanding that the moratorium be extended or they'll leave the talks.  In other words, it's the standard Palestinian position – give us 100% or we walk.  Brilliant.

The problem is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is presiding over a fragile coalition that includes pro-settlement elements.  It could break apart if he extends the moratorium, essentially collapsing the peace talks and probably requiring a new Israeli election.

Some flexibility is going to be required on both sides for the talks to continue.  Apparently, the Israelis are open to compromise, but the Palestinians, thus far, are not.  This merely adds to the suspicion, widespread among Israelis, that the Palestinians are not serious, and are setting the talks up for failure, which would then be blamed on the Israelis.

Negotiations are intense right now.  There may be news late in the day.

September 26, 2010       Permalink

ON THE OTHER HAND – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  In contrast to the more somber political news coming out of California, as reported in the post just below, the picture in the Midwest looks entirely different.  From The Politico:

Two years after President Barack Obama swept the Midwest, Democratic fortunes in the region are sagging, with the GOP poised to make big gains by scooping up disaffected independent voters in a wide swath of states hit by job losses, budget woes and political scandal.

From Ohio to Iowa, there’s a yawning stretch of heartland states whose citizens voted for Obama and congressional Democrats in 2008, but who have lost patience waiting for an as-yet undelivered economic revival that was first promised in 2006, and then two years later. Now, they look set to stampede toward the out-of-power party.

“There's little doubt that the Midwest is the Democrats' toughest region this year,” Democratic pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling wrote on the firm’s website Friday, adding that the firm is also finding an enthusiasm gap of about 10 points down from what existed in 2008.

“If the election was today the party would almost certainly lose the Governorships it holds in Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It's also more than likely at this point to lose the Senate seats it has in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana, miss out on a once promising pick up opportunity in Ohio, and quite possibly lose their seat in Illinois as well. And there are too many House seats the party could lose in the region to count,” Jensen noted.

COMMENT:  The Midwest has often been the heartbreaker for one party or the other.  This year it's the Dems' turn to go away weepin' and wailin'.  When you don't deliver what you promise, this is what happens.

For me, the most important Senate races are in Pennsylvania and Illinois.  I don't want Democrat Joe Sestak elected to the Senate from Pennsylvania.  He's a zero, despite his Navy background.  Pat Toomey, the GOP candidate, has substance and is an articulate carrier of the GOP message.  I want to see our side take Obama's Senate seat in Illinois.  Mark Kirk has proved a lesser candidate than we'd hoped – his exaggerations of his service record are not helpful – but he stands skyscrapers above his corrupt opponent, and will be a solid senator.

Some of the Dems possibly heading for defeat are decent people, like Russ Feingold of Wisconsin.  But they're carrying the wrong message this year.

September 26, 2010      Permalink

CALIFORNIA DREAMIN' – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  Well, the effort is there, but recent polls in California are trending away from a Republican victory in either the gubernatorial or senatorial races. 

California is one of the bluest of the blue states, so this is not entirely surprising.  And there is still more than a month to go before the election, so fight on we will.  But California Democrats, apparently determined to make matters worse in the once-golden state, are coming home to Barbara Boxer.  I mean, who would want to come home to Barbara Boxer?   From Politics Daily:

Three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican challenger Carly Fiorina by 47 percent to 41 percent with 12 percent undecided, according to a Field poll conducted Sept. 14-21. The margin of error is 4.1 points.

Boxer's margin over Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, has been creeping up ever so slightly compared to previous Field polls. In March, she led 45 percent to 44 percent; in July, her lead was 47 percent to 44 percent.

In surveys by other pollsters that we have reported, Public Policy Polling had Boxer ahead by 50 percent to 42 percent in a poll conducted Sept. 14-16; Boxer led 46 percent to 44 percent in a poll conducted Sept. 11 by Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research; Fiorina led Boxer 48 percent to 47 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 6; and Boxer ran ahead of Fiorina 48 percent to 44 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 2-7.

The other bad news is that former governor Jerry Brown is pulling ahead of Republican challenger Meg Whitman.

One reason for our reversal of fortune in California is that President Obama, in contrast to national trends, remains solidly popular in the state.  Midterms are often a referendum on the national administration.  If that's the case in California, we're running uphill.

Miracles are still possible.  Neither Boxer nor Brown are in landslide territory.  Battle on.  But the facts thus far are not all that encouraging.

September 26, 2010     Permalink