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AT THE LATEST ANGEL'S CORNER – READERS WRITE ABOUT SOUTHERN HISTORY, OBAMA'S CREDIBILITY IN THE WORLD, A THEORETICAL CHANGE IN FEDERAL RULES, THE STATE OF FOREIGN MILITARIES, THE DANGER OF USING PRECEDENT TO FORM THE POLICIES OF THE FUTURE.

AUGUST 4,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:01 P.M. ET:

WATER ON MARS – A NASA orbiter has found possible evidence of water on Mars, water that apparently flows seasonally.  There is no report yet on whether Mars would be willing to sell us some of its water, given our credit rating.  Also, the EPA wants to tax Martian water to pay for removal of any Martian pollution.

LONG-TERM JOBLESS – In another sign that some Democrats are distancing themselves from Obama economic policies, a group of Congressional Democrats from the Joint Economic Committee is warning that the percentage of long-term unemployed, those out of work for six months are more, is at a near-record level.  According to this report, some 42% of the country's 14.4 million unemployed are long-term cases.

GOP ALSO HURT BY DEBT CRISIS – We can view it with a bit of skepticism since it was sponsored by The New York Times and CBS News, but a new poll shows Americans disapproving of how both Congressional parties handled the debt crisis, with more disapproving of Republicans than Democrats.  Some 66% of respondents turned thumbs down on the Dems, 72% on the GOP.  Only 14% approves of Congressional performance overall, a new low.  We've stressed before at Urgent Agenda that the president's fading numbers don't necessarily guarantee GOP gains next year, as the Republican Party remains highly unpopular as well.

THE STAND-UP GUY – Leon Panetta, who just went from CIA director to secretary of defense, is the kind of old-time Democrat that I like.  He takes national defense seriously, and seems unfazed by the 60s crowd.  Today, with all the fashionable talk about cost-cutting, Panetta warned that there is danger for our national defense if cuts go beyond those currently contemplated.  "If it happened - and, God willing, that would not be the case - but if it did happen, it would result in a further round of very dangerous cuts across the board, defense cuts that I believe would do real damage to our security, our troops and their families, and our military's ability to protect the nation," Panetta said.  I like the guy.  He's real, not trendy, and he's a grown-up.

August 4, 2011       Permalink

THE MESS – AT 7:31 P.M. ET:  The Dow dropped almost 512 points today, meaning a certain number of my neighbors here in White Plains won't be hanging out at Neiman-Marcus this weekend.  Maybe Macy's.

And yet, there are some who just know how to party, no matter what.  From Andrew Malcolm at the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog:

Uh, what in the world is going on here?

That humongous hard-fought debt ceiling deal that was supposed to settle things down in D.C. financially and politically seems to be doing precisely the opposite there and now around the world. And all within 48 hours.

Europe isn't buying the deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged almost 513 points today, erasing all of its gains this year, as fears grew of yet another recession before most people believed the first one was over. This White House returned to SOP immediately anyway. And George W. Bush is nowhere in sight to blame for this one.

And...

Obama was so pleased with the bipartisan deal to control his spending and cut the nation's $14.3 trillion national debt that he signed it in private. Within hours he was talking about spending much more on bridges, roads, clean energy and unemployment extensions.

Despite his sagging poll numbers, Obama then resumed fundraising for his reelection. He flew to Chicago for a $35,800 per plate dinner that raised millions. He gave a 22-minute oration that still blamed what's-his-face the Texas guy from nearly three years ago, did not contain the word retrenchment and was widely applauded by Windy City fans...

...The stock market plunge, however, was not expected to affect the White House's next pair of parties, a staff gathering this afternoon and another this evening with more friends and family to celebrate the aging Obama's well-documented birth a half-century ago today.

COMMENT:  As one late-night comedian put it, Obama's approval ratings are so low, Kenya is insisting he was born in the United States. 

Watch out for tomorrow.  The term "black Friday" may be hauled out.  We hope not, but be aware.

August 4, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 7:03 P.M. ET: 

Actual headline from Fox: 

IDAHO MAN REPORTEDLY BANNED FROM WEARING BUNNY SUIT IN PUBLIC

It's about time someone dealt with the bunny suit problem.  Some may think that our multi-trillion-dollar national debt is a big issue, but to me the appearance of a man in a bunny suit is a clear sign of national decline (See Gibbon:  "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire," Chapter 27, "Caesar Bans Bunny Suits").  Let us now praise the law-enforcement heroes who refuse to budge in the face of the pink hordes.

UTTERLY DISGRACEFUL – AT 10:19 A.M. ET:   One of the last sacred cows in American life is "education."  After all, it's for the children...isn't it?  Well, not quite.  When we start looking at many educational institutions with two eyes, the blood begins to boil at the waste, the self-indulgence, the political correctness, and, too often, the profund anti-intellectualism.  Get this one, from Fox:

The head of a North Carolina college says some students will have their graduations delayed after budget shortfalls cut sections in classes needed to be taken to earn a degree.

In response to $26 million in cuts, the University of North Carolina at Greensboro trimmed staff and lost nearly 1,000 class sections.

"It's us not being able to offer enough classes of any sort to enable students to build a full schedule and build a schedule to enable them to make good progress," UNC-Greensboro chancellor Linda Brady told MyFox8.
Brady expects other schools across the UNC system -- which suffered a collective $414 million loss in state funding -- to force students to stay onboard for an extra semester, MyFox8 reports.

To offset some delays, UNC-Greensboro created a course-substitution program for students to gain credits, and added a 6.5 percent tuition hike.

COMMENT:  I won't claim to be familiar with all the details, but the word "extortion" comes to mind.  You know, restore our funds or we'll hold your kids hostage for another semester. 

They cut a thousand sections?  How many sections does a college need?  How many departments does it need?  I'm sure some courses can be found among those remaining to allow students to graduate on time.  This doesn't sound like a college.  It sounds like a department store, which is what too many colleges have become.

And I'd love to know, not only what courses and "services" have been cut, but what remains.  Is there, for example, an office of vice president for diversity?  For green jobs?  For multicultural outreach? 

We learned several weeks ago, that one campus of the University of California system had shown only a modest increase in faculty members, but a vast increase in administrators. 

The University of Chicago, my alma mater, at one time featured the Hutchins College, an undergraduate program in which there was no specialization.  The college consisted of only 14 courses, and everyone took all 14.  It was one of the finest educations imaginable. 

I hope there's a follow-up to the North Carolina story, explaining how a college that can cut a thousand sections is actually run, and why there is not enough of a core left to allow students to graduate on time.  I believe that colleges are going to come under increasing scrutiny in the coming years, as parents, students, and contributors demand more for their money, and some very substantial streamlining.

August 4, 2011      Permalink 

FLORIDA COOLS ON OBAMA – AT 9:26 A.M. ET:  Florida, like Ohio, is a key swing state that political pundits look to for indications of trends.  Right now the trends in the sunshine state are not in Mr. Obama's favor:

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — President Barack Obama is losing support among Florida voters, especially among independents, a poll released Thursday shows.

Fifty percent of voters surveyed randomly by landline telephone between July 27-Aug. 2 by Quinnipiac (Conn.) University said Obama would not deserve a second term in the election were held today. However, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was the only announced Republican candidate with enough support in the poll to give the president a strong challenge. Both men were favored by 44 percent of those questioned.

In a matchup against Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is expected to get into the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Obama was favored 44 percent to 39 percent.

However, Obama held double-digit leads over all other Republican presidential hopefuls.

Romney, an unsuccessful candidate for the Republican nomination in 2008, led Perry 23 percent to 13 percent in a sampling of 510 Republican voters with none of the other announced candidates reaching double digits.

"Gov. Perry's stock is rising even before he announces whether he'll run," said Peter Brown, assistant director for Quinnipiac's polling institute...

...It was with independents where Obama took his biggest hit. Sixty-one percent of independents said they now disapprove of the president's performance compared to 33 percent who approved. In May, 47 percent of the independents approved of Obama's job performance compared to 45 percent who did not. 

COMMENT:  The methodology of this poll – voters selected randomly by landline telephone – suggests that the condition of the president is probably worse than the poll indicates.  Generally, Mr. Obama fares poorest among polls of likely voters, the most accurate polls of all.

If Republicans can nail down Florida, it's a major step toward the presidency.  One of Florida's senators is Marco Rubio, who also is the man most mentioned as a vice presidential choice on the GOP side.  Not a bad idea.  Romney-Rubio, Perry-Rubio, or Rubio-...? 

August 4, 2011       Permalink

THURSDAY JOBS REPORT OUT – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  From Bloomberg:

Initial claims for unemployment insurance payments in the U.S. fell last week to a level that shows limited improvement in the labor market.

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 1,000 in the week ended July 30 to 400,000, the fewest in almost four months, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Economists forecast 405,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The four-week average also declined to the lowest level since April.

A further reduction in the pace of dismissals may be needed before companies gain the confidence to step up hiring, which has slowed in the past three months. Employers added 85,000 workers in July, economists project a Labor Department report to show tomorrow, failing to reduce a jobless rate that’s holding above 9 percent.

“Claims are moving in the right direction, which is a sign things probably aren’t getting worse in the labor market,” said Drew Matus, a senior U.S. economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, who correctly forecast the level of claims. “There’s still job creation going on but it’s just not at a rate that’s going to make people feel more comfortable about the economic outlook.”

COMMENT:  This report doesn't reflect the psychological impact of the debt deal reached this week.  And 400,000 unemployment claims is still startling high.  If cuts in defense spending are anticipated, that could mean more layoffs in the coming months.

The figures here really don't point anywhere.  Other economic reports this week were decidedly negative.

August 4, 2011       Permalink 

BAD JOKE – AT 8:37 A.M. ET:   We wrote about this ridiculous possibility last week, and now it's a reality.  Nothing is that surprising in the ridiculous orbit of Iran.  From Britain's Guardian:

A senior Iranian revolutionary guards commander targeted by international sanctions has taken over the presidency of OPEC after he became Iran's oil minister on Wednesday.

Rostam Ghasemi, head of the Khatam al-Anbia military and industrial base, was one of four ministersnominated by president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to join his cabinet last week and approved by Iran's conservative-dominated parliament.

Ghasemi is currently subject to US, EU and Australian sanctions and his assets have been blacklisted by US Treasury and western powers. He took 216 votes from the 246 deputies present in the 290-seat parliament.

Iranian state media interpreted the vote as a reaction by Iran's parliament to international sanctions against the country, especially those which have targeted the revolutionary guards and the country's nuclear programme.

"The clever and decisive vote of Iranian MPs for engineer Ghasemi to become the oil minister is a meaningful and crucial response to the attacks against the guards from the west's media empire," said Ramedan Sharif, the head of the revolutionary guards public relations' unit, in quotes carried by Iran's semi-official Fars news agency.

COMMENT:  This dandy becomes president of OPEC, the world's powerful oil cartel, because OPEC has a rotating presidency, and it's Iran's turn.  So the Iranian oil minister automatically heads OPEC.

This is a crazy situation.  Let's see if the other OPEC nations, many of which are reasonably rational, will change the rules and prevent this farce from happening.  The world's economy is precarious enough.  With an Iranian heading OPEC, how much faith will people have in the future of international oil markets?

August 4, 2011      Permalink

AUGUST 3,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:35 P.M. ET:

INCREDIBLE – We have warned here about taking our eye off the foreign-policy ball as we deal with our economic woes.  I can think of no greater example of this than yesterday's hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on Syria, one of the most important foreign challenges we have.  There are 19 members of the committee, and exactly one, Democratic Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, showed up to question the U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford.  Somehow, I think some members of that committee must have some misplaced priorities.

EQUALLY INCREDIBLE – A senior Pentagon official – that means someone way up who doesn't want to be identified – warned today that the military would have to lay off thousands of people if additional cuts made possible by the debt compromise actually are made.  That additional unemployment would, of course, certainly serve our economy well, wouldn't it?  National Review pointed out that projected defense cuts are being made without any regard to strategic considerations.  I would expect that of many Democrats.  I wouldn't expect it of Republicans, but I'm afraid the green eyeshade types are becoming more influential.  I hope common sense and real statesmanship will return.

WELL, OKAY, HAPPY BIRTHDAY – The president flew to Chicago to attend a birthday party/fundraiser.  He is turning 50.  Ticket prices for the gala go for $200 through $35, 800.   All proceeds will go to the Obama campaign.  Is it unseemly, considering the real economic pain out there?  Of course it is, but politics in Chicago have never been guided by either Emily Post or the West Point honor code.  At any rate, happy birthday, Mr. President.  May you enjoy this, and your retirement at the end of next year.  There are personal benefits to both.

August 3, 2011     Permalink

COMING SOON TO A COMPUTER NEAR YOU – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  "Cyberattack" is the term, and we've been warned by computer experts to expect that term to come up more and more in the future.  There has apparently been a major cyberattack, being reported today.  From Fox:

The world's most extensive case of cyber-espionage, including attacks on U.S. government and U.N. computers, is set to be revealed Wednesday by online security firm McAfee, and analysts are speculating that China is behind the attacks.

The spying was dubbed "Operation Shady RAT," or "remote access tool" by McAfee -- and it led to a massive loss of information that poses a huge economic threat, wrote vice president of threat research Dmitri Alperovitch

"What is happening to all this data — by now reaching petabytes as a whole — is still largely an open question," Alperovitch wrote on a blog detailing the threat. "However, if even a fraction of it is used to build better competing products or beat a competitor at a key negotiation (due to having stolen the other team’s playbook), the loss represents a massive economic threat."

Analysts told The Washington Post that the finger of blame for the infiltration of the 72 networks -- 49 of them in the U.S. -- points firmly in the direction of China.

COMMENT:  Now it is true that McAfee, which sells anti-hacking and anti-virus software, has a commercial interest in alarming stories like this, but I doubt they'd publish something of this size, and with this detail, without firm factual backing.  It's a respected company with good credibility. 

China has been the master of the cyberattack, with profound implications for our national defense, and our economic infrastructure.  This country now runs on computers.  They are vulnerable to cyberattacks, and to electromagnetic pulse attack – a nuclear weapon exploded high above the United States, which, because of the electric energy produced, could wreck a good number of our unprotected computers.

I wonder how the budget for this new kind of war will fare in today's environment.

August 3, 2011        Permalink

EGYPT INTO THE NIGHT – AT 8:57 A.M. ET:  What is it about the Arab world?  They cannot seem to get anything right.  We placed so much hope in the Arab Spring, especially as it sprung in Egypt.   Egypt is the most important Arab country, and the hope is fading each day.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

CAIRO—Mobs of ordinary Egyptians joined with soldiers to drive pro-democracy protesters from their encampment in Tahrir Square here Monday, showing how far the uprising's early heroes have fallen in the eyes of the public.

Six months after young, liberal activists helped lead the popular movement that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, the hard core of these protesters was forcibly dispersed by the troops. Some Egyptians lined the street to applaud the army. Others ganged up on the activists as they retreated from the square that has come to symbolize the Arab Spring.

Squeezed between an assertive military and the country's resurgent Islamist movement, many Internet-savvy, pro-democracy activists are finding it increasingly hard to remain relevant in a post-revolutionary Egypt that is struggling to overcome an economic crisis and restore law and order.

"The liberal and leftist groups that were at the forefront of the revolution have lost touch with the Egyptian people," says Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Institution's Doha Center. "These protesters have alienated much of Egypt. For some time they've been deceiving themselves by saying that the silent majority is on their side—but all evidence points to the contrary, and Monday's events confirm that."

And...

Elections have been pushed to November, but the liberals and the secularists appear not to have taken advantage of the delay. Instead of organizing themselves into a coherent bloc, they have set up minuscule rival parties and feuded among themselves, say analysts and diplomats.

"There is a power game going on—and the liberals and the entire secular movement are the weaker element, while the Islamists and the army are strong," said Laila Soueif, a liberal activist and human-rights campaigner who teaches at Cairo University.

COMMENT:  If Egypt goes Islamist, it will have a profound, and profoundly negative, effect on the region, on American influence, and on Arab-Israeli peace.  It could influence other participants in the Arab Spring, and we can have an even greater mess than we have now. 

However, and get out the seasickness pills for this, don't be shocked if the Western left, first in Europe, then in America, starts to embrace the move toward Islam.  Remember, there is an informal alliance between the left and the Islamists, as both have a common enemy – the United States of America.  An article in The Nation, probably this country's leading leftist magazine, praises the possibility of a new caliphate, a powerful organization of Islamic states.

Polite company will, of course, be barred from discussing any of this, as it will be labeled "racism."  No, it's not racism.  It's good, hard common sense.  We are in danger.

Our current major attention goes to Syria, where citizens are being slaughtered in the streets, with hardly a peep from the usual leftist suspects.  But as bad as the Assad regime is, we really know so little about the protesters.  They really can't be worse than the Assad crowd, but would they be any better?

August 3, 2011       Permalink

NO NAME BEATS FAMOUS NAME – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  In the latest poll to test his popularity, President Obama still trails the now-renowened and deeply experienced anonymous Republican.  From the Daily Caller:

A generic Republican presidential candidate would beat Barack Obama by a five-point margin if the election were held today, according to a poll released Tuesday by Rasmussen.

The as-yet-unnamed Republican candidate leads Obama 47 percent to 42 percent. This is the fourth consecutive week that Rasmussen’s polling has found a generic Republican candidate with a lead.

And...

A Gallup poll of registered voters released on July 14 found a generic Republican candidate was leading Obama, 47 percent to 39 percent. Gallup noted that this was the first time the Republican candidate had held a “statistically significant lead.”

No specific candidate has yet been able to live up to the potential of the generic Republican. Though several state polls and one national poll have found specific candidates (usually Romney) leading Obama, no one has yet achieved the same six- to eight-point lead.

Maybe the Republians can just put "No name" on the ballot, and not even run a campaign.  Given the lack of artistry of recent GOP campaigns, that might be a good idea.  The campaign slogan can be, "Anonymous – better than the guy you know."  The public might buy it.  They bought Obama.

But there's also some light for an actual name:

A Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters released Tuesday found Mitt Romney edging Obama 44 percent to 42 percent, a lead that is within the margin of error.

Margin of error or not, at least that's encouraging.  Pennsylvania is a key Dem state.  If Pennsylvania goes, it's hard to see how Obama can win the 2012 election.  But remember, the election is still a year and three months off.  That's about 20 lifetimes in politics.  The Republicans can falter, and Obama, still a great campaigner, can rally.  Or maybe we'll have an economic miracle, a kind of national Apple Computer.  Don't put this one in the bank yet. 

August 3, 2011        Permalink

IT'S THE ECONOMY, SILLY PERSON – AT 8:20 A.M. ET:  It may be because the education journalists receive cause them to think of government action as the center of all things economic, but it's really the actual economy that will determine our future.  Right now that economy looks awful.  Please note that not many people in Washington are referring to the "recovery," a term used pretty loosely not long ago:

NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 turned negative for the year on Tuesday as the wrangling over the U.S. debt ceiling faded and investors turned their attention to the stalling economy.

The broad-based index fell for a seventh day and crashed through the key 200-day moving average in an ominous sign for markets. The seven days of losses mark the longest losing streak since October 2008.

"It is going to be a long week," said Jim Maguire Jr., a NYSE floor trader at E.H. Smith Jacobs. "The bid is not here in the market."

The selloff accelerated into the close as volume jumped well above average. The fall was broad-based, with four stocks falling for every one rising on the New York Stock Exchange.

The index also broke through its 2-1/2 year uptrend line from its bear market low in March 2009. Thursday was the index's worst day in a year.

Investors seemed to find little to cheer after the U.S. Senate agreed to a deal to raise the debt ceiling because of the possibility it will not stave off a downgrade of the U.S. government's triple-A rating.

"Investors have made the shift from Washington to what I'm calling economic realities," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at The Davidson Cos. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

COMMENT:  It is difficult to see how this economy can make any kind of significant turnaround in time for the 2012 election.  That is especially true as Washington budgeteers are looking, with increasing lust, at the defense budget.

But defense is one of the great real stimulants to the economy.  We've said here since Obama took office that replacing the Pentagon's obsolete and worn out equipment – including planes and ships – would create hundreds of thousands of production jobs, perform an enormous service and retain expertise.  But I'm afraid Obaman ideology got in the way. 

Another ideologically unacceptable stimulant would go into action if this administration would just lift some of the restrictions on domestic oil drilling.  Al Gore might have to double his Zoloft prescription, but the economic benefits, although they might be slow in coming, could be significant.  It's pretty clear that the currently high gasoline prices are a massive foot on the neck of the economy, giving people fewer dollars to buy things other than octane.  Anyone noticing?

August 3, 2011    Permalink