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NOTE TO READERS:   Urgent Agenda is operating normally as Hurricane Irene approaches.  Should we lose electric power, we can operate with two battery-powered computers.   We can also get on the internet through our auxiliary battery-powered system, which connects to the Verizon cell phone network.  Should we lose both electric power and the Verizon network, you won't hear from us for a time, but I don't think that will happen.  If it does happen, remember it's Bush's fault. 

AUGUST 27,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:27 P.M. ET:

IRENE – We await our fate here in New York, where Hurricane Irene is expected to hit early in the morning.  New York City has made extraordinary preparations, including the evacuation of part of lower Manhattan, where Wall Street is located.  It's possible the sea wall will be breached down there, meaning all that money could be soaked.  Even if soaked, the Wall Streeters will fight over it.  All public transportation is also stopped in New York, for the first time in the city's history.  This will have a devastating economic effect for a few days, but will probably also lower the crime rate.  We aren't expecting horrible winds, but the chance for substantial flooding is great. 

ANOTHER AL QAEDA BIG IS GONE – Al Qaeda's second-in-command was killed last week in Pakistan by a CIA drone.  The death of Atiyah Abd al-Rahman is said to be a severe blow to Al Qaeda, which has lost much of its top leadership to American strikes.  Rahman was a key link between the troops of Al Qaeda and its top leadership.  But Al Qaeda of the Arabian peninsula, and Al Qaeda in Africa, with bases in Somalia, are now emerging as major threats.

LIBYA AFTERMATH – The rebels have taken control of the Libyan capital of Tripoli, but public services are breaking down, something that can lead to chaos and rioting, as it did in Iraq.  There are severe shortages of fuel, water, and electricity. Five gallons of gas costs $100.  (Sound familiar?)  Garbage hasn't been picked up for weeks or months.,  At the same time, rebels are preparing for an assault on Gaddafi's home town of Sirte. For the first time the rebels are expressing fear that Gaddafi loyalists might use chemical weapons and long-range missiles against them.  There is a belief, but no proof is presented, that Gaddafi is holed up in Sirte.

August 27, 2011       Permalink

MICHELE SLIPPING – AT 11:34 A.M. ET:  One of the more interesting developments in the several weeks since Rick Perry declared his candidacy is the slippage of Michele Bachmann in the GOP polls.  It's clear that Perry has stolen a good part of her thunder, and her electorate.  I suspect it's permanent, unless Perry self-destructs.

Bachmann made a serious political mistake in Iowa on the first day that Perry appeared there.  They both were scheduled to speak at the same dinner.  Perry arrived and worked the room, speaking with people, pressing the flesh, as old Lyndon used to say.  But during Perry's brief speech Bachmann stayed outside the hall in her campaign bus.  Only when Perry finished did she make her entrance, a grand entrance, and spoke, not even acknowledging Perry and refusing to stay and move around the room.

This did not go down well with the Iowa crowd, and now we hear that Iowa GOP pros are telling Michele to knock off the "rock star" act.  She hasn't helped herself.

The coming months will tell.  But Michele has a hard climb.  While she remains viable in Iowa, she doesn't have much backing in New Hampshire, and South Carolina is Perry country.  I'd imagine Michele will stay in until the end, but Perry's entrance has shaken her campaign badly.

August 27, 2011       Permalink

ECHO OF EGYPT – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:   The Egyptian revolution has turned sour, with some pretty bad actors coming onstage.  There are increasing demands from the newly empowered extremists to scrap the peace treaty with Israel, which would be devastating to American policy in the region.

One thing that's happened in Egypt is the freeing of Islamic militants, many of whom will undoubtedly return to their former profession – killing.  Now there is an echo:

Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Hundreds of Islamist militants were among the prisoners freed from a notorious Tripoli prison this week, according to a former Libyan jihadist.

The freed militants had been imprisoned in Tripoli's Abu Salim prison by Moammar Gadhafi's regime during the height of the insurgency in Iraq, according to Noman Benotman, once a senior figure in the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. Benotman said he believes as many as 600 militants may have been among the prison population at Abu Salim.

It's not known how many prisoners were held in the vast facility. Human Rights Watch said Gadhafi's prisons "have been filled to the limit in the last few months with thousands of people who were arrested for taking part in the anti-Gadhafi protests, or because of their suspected support for Libya's democratic opposition."

The human rights group, which recently had a team visit the prison, estimates that before the uprising, there were a few hundred Islamists held at Abu Salim.

Benotman said many of the militants released are pro-al Qaeda.

"Nobody knows what these released prisoners are going to do next," he said. "Will they take part in the fighting and if they do will they join pre-existing rebel brigades or form a separate fighting force?"

Benotman, now a senior analyst at the Quilliam Foundation in London, said the freed prisoners are Salafists, embracing a puritanical interpretation of Islam that has gained ground in Libya in recent years.

COMMENT:  Once again we see that the aftermath of revolutions can be ugly, and that the glowing promise of revolt is often snuffed out by extremist elements.  Hey, the French did it, didn't they?  It is appropriate to worry about what happens next throughout the Arab world.  We cheer on genuine democrats.  But how many are there in these countries?  The Iranians are active throughout the region, trying to turn the revolts to their advantage.  And the area is one huge stockpile of weapons.

August 27, 2011       Permalink

ABOUT TO SAIL – AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  To answer the question I'm getting from readers, yes, I did finish the ark, in anticipation of Hurricane Irene.

I was ordered by the federal government to build an ark, and was able to finance it under the wonderful cash-for-old-arks program, for which I thank our visionary president.  The ark conforms to EPA standards, was built from scrap wood, rather than sacrifice new trees, and is, of course, powered by sails bought from GoreSail, a company operating from the basement of a Tennessee mansion.

I was ordered to fill the ark with two of each kind of species, with the exception that certain species, because of past exclusion from other arks over the centuries, could be overrepresented as an affirmative gesture of remorse.  My ark is free of society's usual bigotries.  The navigator is a penguin of color.  Of course, should there be a disciplinary infraction, Sharia law will apply if the defendant wishes. 

We will sail before Irene hits.  Our first stop will be Gaza, where we will deliver medical supplies to the guests of the two new luxury hotels that were just built there.  There has been an emergency call for caviar. 

Oh, by the way, our ark features free wi-fi, so we'll be on the air during our voyage.

Should you form a new species over the weekend, and wish to be included, please let us know, but first get approval from the Ark Rights division of the Justice Department. 

Must go.  I see two liberals getting on board, hoping to preserve their species.

August 27, 2011     Permalink

AUGUST 26,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:20 P.M. ET: 

GOOD NIGHT, IRENE – As you all know from the endless TV coverage, we have a bit of bother here in the East regarding a hurricane named Irene.  Now, I've made it plain in this space that I look upon all this with some skepticism, having been through endless episodes of dire weather forecasts followed by one snowflake or a raindrop.  So I will await our fate, armed with batteries and appropriately unhealthy snacks.  We in New York are not expected to be visited until Sunday, and we therefore have some time before the world ends.  If it does, I'll let you know.

DENNIS THE MENACE – We now learn that Dennis Kucinich, whose flakiness is unsurpassed in Congress, was invited to Libya by the Gaddafi folks in order to mediate the conflict.  But, apparently, peaceful Dennis was worried about his security...and so visited Syria instead.  Here's a man who'd turn down a visit to the lion's den in order to make common cause with rattlesnakes.  At last report Dennis hadn't been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, so we aren't sure exactly what he's done.

ARE REPUBLICANS NUTS? – There is a story circulating that Republican leaders in Congress have signed off to a plan that will allow the temporary easing of the payroll tax (the Social Security tax) to expire next year.  These are the same people who fought for an extension of the Bush tax breaks, which do indeed benefit the wealthiest Americans, claiming that not to extend them would amount to a tax increase.  But they now want to let the payroll tax break expire, impacting the middle class and below almost exclusively?  Are they mad?  Do they realize the backlash this would cause?  Or are they falling into some rhetorical trap.  I can just see the Democratic ads.  I hope this idea is a trial balloon, and not something more.  If it's a trial balloon, shoot it down, for it's political suicide, something at which Republicans are expert.

ALIVE? – In 1986 President Reagan ordered an air strike on Gaddafi's compound in Libya in retaliation for the killing of American servicemen in a cafe bombing in Germany.  After the strike the Libyan government announced that Gaddafi's adopted daughter had been killed in the raid.  However, it now turns out that she may well be very much alive and a physician, according to the Irish Times, which says it discovered documents yesterday in Gaddafi's now liberated headquarters in Tripoli that point to the daughter's life as an adult.  At the time, the left and the "third world" had a field day criticizing Reagan over the U.S. raid, pointing to the death of this innocent little girl.  Among the items the newspaper discovered was her passport photo, taken as an adult. 

August 26, 2011       Permalink

OBAMA'S ERODING BASE – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  Until recently, President Obama appeared to have a base that would remain with him, no matter what.  Some of the loyalty was based on ethnic pride, some on fear of the Republicans, some on the belief that their 1960s moment had come.  But now part of the Obama base seems to be chipping away, at least for now.  From The Daily Caller:

A critical bloc of Democratic-aligned voters has lurched away from President Barack Obama’s campaign and won’t come back until Democrats develop a new “narrative,” warns a new survey by a Democratic polling firm.

The bloc of “unmarried women, people of color, and younger voters — comprises a rapidly growing majority of the eligible voting population in this country … [but they] are not hearing an economic narrative that speaks to their problems and concerns or convinces them that their leaders have the ability to solve those problems,” says the Aug. 24 report titled “Creating a New Economic Narrative; Engaging the Rising American Electorate for 2012.”

Other Democratic advocates corroborate the survey’s data. For example, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka said Wednesday that fewer working-class voters will turn out in 2012 unless Obama can persuade them that their votes can change government policy. “Give them the narrative about why it will work,” he said at a press breakfast sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor.

Republicans advocates say they’re winning over women, youth and blue-collar voters partly because Obama’s government-focused economic policies have failed to reduce the unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign’s Project Vote effort says it will work to ”engage key demographic groups, such as African Americans, Women, Youth, Latinos, LGBT, Veterans, Asian Americans and others.”

These voters are especially valuable to the Obama campaign because many have not registered or voted before, giving the campaign a change to increase its tallies amid expected losses among older and white voters.

The cynicism just flows, doesn't it?  Obama was the man who was going to unite America.

The Obama campaign sketched out its strategy for winning these “Project Vote” groups and for getting them to register for the ballot. “Project Vote will communicate with and engage targeted constituencies by reaching them where they are, in their communities and neighborhoods, and having one-on-one grassroots conversations about the issues they care about most – jobs, health care and education,” the statement said.

Do you see a policy statement in there?  I don't.

The decline has already damaged the Democrats. The "Rising American Electorate" voters gave 69 percent of their vote to Obama in 2010, but only 60 percent to Democrats in 2010, said the report.

COMMENT:  In recent days people on our side, from Michael Barone to Jeb Bush, have also cautioned Republicans about the current lack of a clear and coherent set of Republican policies.  That has got to be a priority.  The Dem policies may be a zero, but you probably won't beat a zero with another zero.  What we need is a new type of contract with America that unites the different elements within the Republican Party, and it must be something that is quickly understood by voters, who are looking for practical solutions, not ideology.

August 26, 2011       Permalink

DESPITE PLEDGE, SYRIAN REGIME FIRES ON PROTESTERS – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:  The Damascus regime had promised to stop firing on its own people, but the promise is being ignored.  Protests erupted again in Syria today.  Dictator Assad must be looking, with considerable apprehension, at what's happened to his pal Gaddafi in Libya.  is Assad next?  He's a tougher nut to crack, and, unlike the situation in Libya, Western nations are not talking intervention.  From Reuters: 

(Reuters) - Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad fired at protesters after Friday prayers in the Damascus suburb of Douma, as demonstrations flared anew across Syria in a sixth-month-old uprising against his autocratic rule, activists said.

"Protesters phoned in to say that two people have been killed, but this is an initial report still to be confirmed," an activist in Damascus told Reuters by phone.

Other activists and residents reported protests in cities and towns, many of which have been stormed by tanks, stretching from Deir al-Zor province in the east to Deraa in the south to the northwest province of Idlib.

They said demonstrations also cropped up in large cities such as Hama and Homs along the main highway leading to Turkey, and in districts of the capital Damascus.

"Gaddafi is gone, it is your turn Bashar!" shouted protesters in he town of Hirak northeast of Deraa, buoyed by the apparent overthrow of the Libyan strongman by rebels this week, according to a witness who spoke by phone.

COMMENT:  Syria is a critical Arab country, and Iran's closest ally in the Arab world.  And, I point out cautiously, there were a number of reports that Iraqi WMD were moved to Syria before the Iraq War.  That is unconfirmed, but must be looked at again if the regime in Damascus wobbles.

Assad is a very bad guy, but, again, we don't know exactly who the protesters are, and what they want for the future of their country.  But they don't deserve to be murdered in the streets.

August 26, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:42 A.M. ET: 

From The Politico:   Former New York Gov. George Pataki has decided not to seek the Republican nomination for president, sources confirm.

Oh, I'm just so disappointed.  But I'm glad to see he's still alive.

PATHETIC – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  A new report just out shows just how weak the American economy is.  If this were a patient, a trip to the emergency room would be indicated.   From CNBC:

The U.S. economy grew much slower than previously thought in the second quarter as business inventories and exports were less robust, a government report showed on Friday, although consumer spending was revised up.

Gross domestic product growth rose at annual rate of 1.0 percent the Commerce Department said, a downward revision of its prior estimate of 1.3 percent. It also said after-tax corporate profits rose at the fastest pace in a year.

Dismal growth.  Good corporate profits, but the corporations are afraid to spend their money.  It's the uncertainty factor, and for good reason.

Economists had expected output growth to be revised down to 1.1 percent. In the first quarter, the economy advanced just 0.4 percent. The government's second GDP estimate for the quarter confirmed growth almost stalled in the first six months of this year.

The United States is on a recession watch after a massive sell-off in the stock market knocked down consumer and business sentiment. The plunge in share prices followed Standard & Poor's decision to strip the nation of its top notch AAA credit rating and a spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

While sentiment has deteriorated, data such as industrial production, retail sales and employment suggest the economy could avoid an outright contraction.

COMMENT:  Given this administration's record, they'll probably make things as bad as they can be.  Obama must go, and the thought of a Republican president taking the oath a year from January brings smiles.  But winning the election, as we regularly point out here, is not a done deal.  I think it will be very close, unless one side implodes politically.

August 26, 2011       Permalink

THOSE LIBYAN WEAPONS – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  We were struck by a report that the price for shoulder-to-air missiles on the black market has dropped, probably indicating that those Libyan weapons are already being sold outside the country.  This could create a real tragedy down the line.  From Fox:

It's a polite faceoff of spies vs. diplomats, as the Obama administration debates how aggressively to pursue Libya's vast weapons stores, including tons of caustic mustard agent and thousands of anti-aircraft rockets that experts fear could fall into the hands of terrorists or Libyan loyalists.

The State Department wants to wait for fighting to abate before moving throughout Libya to locate and secure fugitive leader Muammar Qaddafi's massive weapons stores, according to two U.S. officials. It's also stressing working through the nascent Libyan rebel government.

Some U.S. intelligence officials have been pushing to expand the CIA's role in Libya to track down the weaponry faster, unilaterally without the rebels' help if necessary. They fear the rockets in particular may be quickly sold, ending up with al-Qaida or fueling a Libyan insurgency for years to come, the officials say.
Already, the prices of the shoulder-launched missiles called MANPADs have fallen on the regional black market, the officials say, suggesting some of Qaddafi's stores are already being sold.

While many of the aging rockets may not work, the Soviet-era missiles can take down a helicopter or civilian jetliner.

The White House has resisted calls to expand the CIA's covert mission, just as it has ruled out deploying U.S. troops on the ground in Libya, one current and one former U.S. official said. The administration is pushing instead for other NATO partners to step in and take up the hunt.

COMMENT:  This is a pretty critical part of the mission.  I'm not sure I'd want to trust NATO.  Apparently there wasn't much planning, if any, for collecting Libyan stockpiles.  Please notice the lack of media criticism of Obama over that, and contrast with the hail of criticism that President Bush endured over planning for post-war Iraq. 

August 26, 2011     Permalink