Please note that you can leave a comment on any of our posts at our Facebook page.  Subscribers can also comment at length at our Angel's Corner Forum

LAST SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE OF 2011 – HELP NEEDED!

We're in our final subscription drive of 2011. 

We're making progress, but we need much more help.

The sales pitch will be brief:  Urgent Agenda depends on subscriptions and donations to keep going.  While we still have an impressive retention rate among our subscribers, we need new subscribers to replace the few who drop out, and to help us build an even larger base of support to take into the future.

Current subscribers and donators can help by adding to their participation.

If you like what you see, and want it to continue, please subscribe or donate by going to the SUBSCRIPTIONS section in the right-hand column of this page.  It's right opposite what you're reading now.  You can subscribe or donate there, using PayPal.  If you don't like PayPal, send us an e-mail at
service@urgentagenda.com and we'll give you a traditional mailing address.

As a subscriber or donator, you'll receive The Angel's Corner, our twice-a-week e-mailed page.  The Angel's Corner contains the Forum, the most popular feature at Urgent Agenda.  Readers get to write, at length if they wish, on any subject they choose.  This goes well beyond the "comments" section of most websites.

So please subscribe or donate.  You'll join a community of exceptionally well informed readers, and help to sustain a website that many have come to depend on each day. 

DECEMBER 6,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:41 P.M. ET:

U.S. MILITARY A TERROR TARGET – Congressional investigators led by Rep. Peter King (R-NY) say that homegrown terrorists see military personnel and bases within the U.S. as prime targets.  King said there is also evidence that extremists have joined the armed services.  He asserts that the Pentagon is deeply worried about them because of what they can do internally – consider the case of Major Hasan, who committed the Fort Hood massacre – and because the military skills they pick up can be used elsewhere.  We will wait ten seconds for Rep. King to be called 1) a racist and 2) Islamophobic. 

OFF HIS MEDS AGAIN – The second-ranking goofball of the United States, Joe Biden, went completely out of control at a conference in Turkey today, comparing the "Arab spring" to the American revolution.  He didn't bother to note that the "spring" has turned to winter, and that radical Islamists have taken control from the idealistic liberal-minded revolutionaries we first saw.  Joe has never been annoyed by details.  Biden is a personable guy who fancies himself a foreign policy expert.  In fact, his actual record on foreign policy was one of the worst in the Senate.  He proved to be wrong on almost everything.

ROMNEY PANIC – It's pretty clear from a great deal of reporting that there is a near-panic in the Romney camp, as functionaries see the Republican nomination slipping away from their guy.  Romney has now moved to reverse things – promising to be more aggressive and to appear on more TV shows than he has in the past.  He is predicting a long, hard-fought campaign.  Polls in early states – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida – show Romney ahead only in New Hampshire.  His moves today are widely seen as a concession that he knows his play-it-safe approach has failed.

CHANNELING TEDDY – There is something ironic in Barack Obama suddenly choosing to invoke the spirit of Theodore Roosevelt in a speech designed to make "fairness" the main thrust of his campaign for reelection, replacing that old "hope 'n change" stuff.  Theodore Roosevelt is John McCain's favorite president.  Once again Obama is trying to present himself as a centrist, even willing to idolize, he says, a Republican president.  The question is whether the Republicans will be sharp enough to expose this tactic to the public, and hammer home the fact that this president is anything but a centrist.  As far as "fairness" is concerned, the president will score some points (legitimately) because there is genuine outrage over the vastly inflated incomes of some Wall Street and corporate types.  But a strong economy is the answer.  These are issues that Gingrich handles well, Romney not so well.  If Newt is the nominee, we look forward eagerly to a Gingrich/Obama debate. 

December 6, 2011       Permalink 

TYPICAL, ISN'T IT? – AT 4:12 P.M. ET:  President Obama wants a Senate bill imposing tough new sanctions on Iran to be softened.   So typical of this administration.  Let's not have anything too effective:

WASHINGTON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The Obama administration is urging U.S. lawmakers to soften proposed sanctions targeting Iran's central bank, Senator Mark Kirk said on Tuesday.

Kirk, a Republican, is the co-author along with Democratic Senator Robert Menendez of a proposal to penalize foreign financial institutions that do business with Iran's central bank, the main conduit for its oil revenues.

The Senate approved the proposal last week 100-0 despite lobbying against it by Obama administration officials, who argued that threatening U.S. allies might not be the best way to get cooperation in action against Iran.

A similar measure is pending in the House of Representatives; both chambers must agree on the same version before it can become law.

Kirk said on Tuesday that the administration had written to some lawmakers' offices and "proposed what they describe as technical fixes" to the Kirk-Menendez amendment.

But Kirk complained: "They are not technical fixes at all. They are meant to undermine the amendment." He and Menendez have written to fellow lawmakers as well, urging them to "stick with" the Senate-passed proposal, Kirk said at an event on Iran's nuclear program, sponsored by the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank.

The United States and its western allies have supported multiple rounds of sanctions on Iran, seeking to persuade it to curtail its nuclear work. Washington suspects Tehran of using its civilian nuclear program to develop weapons, although Iran says its program is solely to produce electricity.

The Kirk-Menendez proposal would dissuade foreign banks from dealing with Iran's central bank by threatening to cut them off from the U.S. financial system. The United States already bars its own banks from dealing with the Iranian central bank.

COMMENT:  If you were the Iranian government, would you shake in your boots at hearing the name "Barack Obama"?  No, more likely you'd smile.

December 6, 2011     Permalink

THIS IS DEMOCRACY? – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  It's slowly sinking in, even into the heads of 1960s types like Hillary Clinton, that the "Arab spring" is turning into a disaster. 

The Islamic victories in Tunisa, Morocco and now, most important, Egypt, don't exactly bring Thomas Jefferson to mind.  We may well have the Arab phenomenon of "one man, one vote, one time."  In Egypt the Islamists will have 60% of the new parliament. 

At first our vastly overrated secretary of state praised the Egyptian election as an expression of democracy.  Apparently, some people have slipped some reality into her briefing notes:

Clinton addressed head-on the fear that the hardliners will crimp human and women’s rights.

“Transitions require fair and inclusive elections, but they also demand the embrace of democratic norms and rules,” she said. “We expect all democratic actors to uphold universal human rights, including women’s rights, to allow free religious practice.”

Nice you noticed, Hil.

And Time, not exactly warm toward Israel, concedes that Israeli predictions of what would happen in Egypt have turned out to be true, if understated: 

The stunning showing by Salafist parties in the first round of Egypt's parliamentary elections surprised Israeli officials as much as the rest of the world. The estimated 40 percent of the vote that went to the Muslim Brotherhood, the party that founded modern political Islam, was about in line with pre-election polls. But the unexpectedly strong showing by the Salafis -- fundamentalist Sunni Muslims who hold that the only true Islam was practiced around the time of the Prophet Mohammad, 1,300 years ago -- could put a group that rejects modernism in a pivotal position in Egypt's new democracy.

“This is even worse than we predicted," a senior Israeli security official was quoted telling the daily Yedioth Ahronoth.

In other words, events are unfolding much as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned they might in the heady first days of the Arab Spring, which Netanyahu said could well turn into an "Iranian winter." The metaphor draws from the history of Iran's 1979 revolution, which began as a popular uprising united in opposition to the despotic Shah, and thanks in part to the organization and motivation of religious activists, produced the radical theocracy that has controlled the country since.

"In February, when millions of Egyptians thronged to the streets in Cairo, commentators and quite a few Israeli members of the opposition said that we're facing a new era of liberalism and progress," Netanyahu told the Knesset last month, before polls even opened in Egypt. "They said I was trying to scare the public and was on the wrong side of history and don't see where things are heading."

But Facebook, the social networking site that let young liberals discreetly organize the first mass public protests, has proved no match for the Koran.

COMMENT:  I'm not one of Netanyahu's biggest fans.  Politically, he's often been ham-handed, but the guy is intensely pro-American and knows what he's talking about.  Contrast please with the gang in Washington, which conducts foreign policy from the precincts of the faculty lounge. 

We dread a second Obama administration, and what it will mean for the foreign policy of the United States.  After all, look at the first term.   Iran and North Korea have grown stronger, Russia grows as a challenge, as does China.  And President Obama is off on a 17-day vacation...again.

December 6, 2011       Permalink

THE CONTEST – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  With primary voting scheduled to start in less than a month, the Republican race is not only unsettled, it appears to be stamped UNSATISFACTORY by many, if not most, GOP voters.

Let's face it.  It's hard to hear a "wanting" for Mitt or a "yearning" for Newt.  Donald Trump is making noises again, as we noted yesterday, but there's no corresponding noise coming from voters.  Have you heard any "draft Don" chants recently?

Trump is hinting that he can get into the race as late as May if he is not pleased with the direction it's taking.  We cannot wait for his political opinions.

This should be a time of joy and enthusiasm in Republican ranks.  We have a farm-team president who was sent to the majors long before he was ready.  He is personally liked, but politically poison.  He can be defeated, just as Carter, to whom Obama is correctly compared, could be defeated in 1980.  But then the Republicans had Reagan. 

This site has long argued that the Republicans should skip a generation and go with the young, dynamic bench.  Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan would make a great ticket.  And it would win.  We learned yesterday that Rubio has just signed to do his memoirs, to be published late in 2012.  Please notice that, Republicans. 

There is an enthusiasm gap in the Republican Party, and it can cost the party an election that is winnable.  What is needed is a fresh face – young, dynamic, tough, articulate.  What is needed is someone who can talk over the heads of a hostile press, directly to the American people.  (Republicans still don't understand what press bias has done to them.)

Yes, of course, we'll support the Republican nominee.  Either Mitt or Newt would improve our national government.  But I'd like to have more than one hand clapping.  This election will not be easy.

December 6, 2011       Permalink 

OBSERVATIONS ON A TRIP – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  Just returned last night from visiting family in Virginia, one of those states that will save us if we really get in trouble.  Well, at least central and southern Virginia will.  Northern Virginia is lost to the D.C. axis.

Some observations:  Regular gasoline in central Virginia is about $3.10 a gallon, a little less in some places if you pay cash.  In White Plains, New York, where this is being written, it's about $3.85.  My friend Silvio Canto Jr. tells me that it's $2.85 in Dallas.

Why the difference?  Taxes, for the most part.  New York has one of the highest tax rates in the country.  It is also the state with the largest out-migration rate.  More people leave New York each year than any other state.   Taxes, absurd real-estate prices, and mediocre services are having their effect.

Some here will shrug at the deep discrepancy in gas prices, but consider this:  Think of a young single mother trying to make it while working as a secretary, a sales clerk, or at some other job.  She drives to work.  She may use a bit more than a tank of gas a week.  Let's say she pays $20 a week more for gas than she would if she lived in Dallas.  That's about $80 a month, or $960 a year.  She may keep her car ten years.  Over that ten years she'll spend $9,600 more for gas than if she'd lived in Dallas.  Her car might be worth $2,500 in trade.  Add that to the extra cost of gas and you get $12,100.  That is most of the cost of a new, small car, like the Hyundai. 

That is the cost, over time, of a one-dollar a gallon difference in the price of gas at the pump.

So when the chattering classes shrug off that one-dollar difference, or even argue that gas should cost more to discourage the peasantry from driving and polluting the environment around Aspen, think of that young, single mother.

Oh, by the way, I found that infrastructure and modernity in central Virginia were ahead of New York, and Virginia is a low-tax state.  That may be why so many "Virginians" these days have New York accents.

December 6,  2011     Permalink

DECEMBER 5,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:17 P.M. ET:

IRAN PREPARING FOR WAR – Britain's Telegraph reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the country's elite force, is actively preparing for armed conflict.  The report comes amidst news stories about mysterious explosions in Iran's military and nuclear complexes.  Iran is said to have begun plans to disperse long-range missiles, high explosives, artillery and guards units to key defensive positions.  In addition, a good part of the nuclear program is being sent underground. 

POSTAL CHANGES – Drastic cuts now being made in the US Postal Service budget will mean substantial changes in service.  For example, first class mail that used to take a day to deliver, will now take two or three days.  Now wait.  In my area, two or three days for a first class envelope would be called an improvement.  Bottom line:  First class mail is losing out to e-mail, and the private transport services, like FedEx or UPS, are often preferred for reliable handling of packages.  Looks like the sturdy old post office is going the way of the Pony Express.  But I think the ritual of "going to get the mail" will still be with us for decades, or longer.

BOOK DEAL FOR MARCO – When you have presidential ambitions, first comes the book deal.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, seen as future presidential timber in the Republican Party, has just signed a deal with Penguin for his memoirs, to be published in the fall of next year.  Hmm, isn't that right at election time?   Is someone thinking that Rubio might be on the ticket?  The deal still must be approved by the Senate Ethics Committee.  Rubio will of course continue to deny that he has national-ticket ambitions.  He'll continue to deny it until he's taking the oath of office.

ALL ARTILLERY TURNED ON GINGRICH – In a sign of changed political fortune, the Democrats are now targeting Newt Gingrich rather than Mitt Romney.  Even Joe Biden took a swipe at Gingrich over the weekend, and Nancy Pelosi revealed that she had private information about Gingrich gleaned from House investigation of his conduct, a comment that drew a sharp response from Gingrich, who warned that the release of non-public information from that probe would violate House rules and would backfire.  One thing about Newt:  He snaps back.  The opposition will be all over him, but he relishes the fight.

December 5, 2011       Permalink

SOME DEMS FEAR NEWT – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  The standard line in Washington is that Dems want to face Gingrich next fall because he'd be easier to defeat than Romney.  Another Goldwater, they say.  But the Washington Post reports that some Democrats are rethinking this view.  There are things about Newt that give them worry.  We feel their pain.

But even as Gingrich’s sudden rise has filled many Obama supporters with cheer and some Republicans with dread, some Democratic strategists worry that the combative Gingrich presents some challenges for the Obama campaign that would not exist if Romney were the GOP candidate.

Where Romney, the former business executive and Massachusetts governor, poses a threat in his ability to win independents and conservative Democrats attracted to his image as an economic Mr. Fix-It, Gingrich could pursue a strategy that combines energizing the conservative base and chipping away Democratic support among Hispanics — an electoral formula that helped George W. Bush win in 2004.

Some Democrats believe that Gingrich, a hero of the conservative movement, would excite the party base more than a former liberal-state governor with a history of centrist views. And voters yearning for authenticity may be more open to the voluble and rumpled former House speaker, who frequently discusses his past mistakes and his recent conversion to Catholicism, than to a former ­equity-fund executive with perfect salt-and-pepper hair.

And...

Perhaps most significantly, Gingrich has an extensive Hispanic outreach organization, which he has been building for years. Unlike anything in the Romney playbook, that network could give Gingrich a head start slicing into Obama’s base in key states in the Mountain West, where Hispanics are a fast-growing swing voting bloc. Polls show Hispanic voters, two-thirds of whom backed Obama in 2008, still favor the president — but GOP strategists believe that winning 40 percent of that vote could disrupt Obama’s electoral college strategy by putting Colorado, Arizona and Nevada in the Republican column.

COMMENT:  There's no way of knowing yet whether this is true, or simply speculation.  Newt is peaking at the right time, but a stumble in the next month or so could also cause him to fail at a critical time.  I frankly have my doubts about his electability, and about his ability to handle the supreme executive office, where administrative leadership is critical.  But he's surely preferable to the president we have now, whose administration reminds us of a train wreck, at HO gauge level.

December 5, 2011       Permalink 

SEND IN THE CLOWNS – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  Hmm.  Have you noticed that Donald Trump is back in the news...a lot?  Trump is moderating an upcoming GOP debate, and has new book out, by coincidence, today.

Is it possible...just possible...that Trump sees himself as the man on the white horse, or in the white stretch limo, who will come in at the last minute to save the GOP from Romney and Gingrich?  We know Trump well here in New York.  His name is on every other building, and his ego hangs over our region.  Frankly, I don't think the voting public would take him all that seriously as a presidential contender.  His image is more real-estate mogul and TV personality.  But Trump takes himself very seriously, and at least he does have some ideas.  I would not be competely shocked if he jumps back in, which would certainly make things even more interesting.  From Newsmax:

Billionaire Donald Trump is relentless. And when it comes to opposing President Barack Obama and his policies, he's even more relentless.

Monday marks the release of Trump's new book, “Time to Get Tough: Making America No. 1 Again.” In an interview with Newsmax.TV, Trump explains what's on the line: an Obama second term in the White House would be “devastating for the United States as we know it,” adding ominously that the country would find it “very hard to ever recover.”

Trump, who is scheduled to moderate a Dec. 27 GOP debate in Iowa sponsored by Newsmax and ION Television, was asked in the interview to identify the top threat facing America.

“Unfortunately we have many threats,” he said. “I think the biggest threat might be bad leadership if you want to know the truth.”

Trump believes that stopping Obama is crucial, but the Republicans must offer real solutions. He outlines them in "Time to Get Tough."

For example, Trump argues that dealing with OPEC's "illegal cartel" and lowering oil prices is key to turning around the U.S. and global economy.

Trump says he would slap a 25 percent tax on all U.S. imports from OPEC nations.

He thinks other foreign powers are pushing the United States around. A prime example is China, which is manipulating and devaluing their currency to give themselves a competitive trade advantage.

No more of this nonsense, Trump writes. He'll hit China with a 25 percent tariff on all their goods imported to the United States.

He also advocates a 20 percent tax on all domestic companies that outsource their jobs overseas.

Read more on Newsmax.com: Trump Warns of Obama Tipping Point That May Destroy America
Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now!

COMMENT:  I expect to see Trump all over the tube.  Will there be a "draft Donald" movement?  I don't know.  Rarely does a draft work.  Stevenson supporters say they actually did draft Adlai Stevenson for the 1952 Democratic nomination, but I don't think Adlai was all that reluctant.  Some liked to believe that Ike was drafted, but he wasn't.  He was a man of considerable self-confidence, and wanted the job. 

There are no Ikes around today.  There are no Ronnies around today.  We take what we can get. 

December 5, 2011      Permalink

A FUNNY THING HAPPENED TO VLADIMIR PUTIN – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  Power-behind-the-throne, and soon-to-be-back-on-the-throne Vladimir Putin has suffered a severe setback in Russia, thanks to Russian voters who actually had a chance to vote, and some of whose votes were counted.  From AP:

MOSCOW – Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's party saw its majority in Russia's parliament weaken sharply, according to preliminary election results released Monday, a humiliating setback for the man who has steadily tightened his grip on the nation for nearly 12 years.

Some opposition politicians and election monitors said even a result of around 50 percent for Putin's United Russia party was inflated because of vote fraud. Their claims were backed by international observers, who pointed to procedural violations and serious indications of ballot stuffing after a campaign slanted in favor of United Russia.

"To me, this election was like a game in which only some players are allowed to compete," Heidi Tagliavini, the head of the international observer mission, said at a news conference.

United Russia is still expected to retain its majority in the lower house and Putin is all but certain to win next March's presidential election, but Sunday's vote badly dented his carefully groomed image. It reflected a strong public frustration with the lack of political competition, ubiquitous official corruption and the gap between rich and poor.

With about 96 percent of precincts counted, United Russia was leading with 49.5 percent of the vote, Central Election Commission chief Vladimir Churov said. He predicted that it will get 238 of the Duma's 450 seats, a sharp drop compared to the previous vote that landed the party a two-thirds majority in the State Duma, allowing it to change the constitution.

COMMENT:  Putin is a former KGB guy.  He is no great defender of democracy.  Under his leadership, both in front of and behind the camera, Russia is emerging once more as a competitor to the United States and a major mischief maker.  The Russians are developing a whole new generation of jet aircraft and other weapons.

The more Putin can be weakened, the better it is for us.  The problem here, though, is that the current occupant of the White House was determined, when he came in, to press the "reset" button with Russia and improve relations.  That goal hasn't changed.  We make concessions to Russia – on missile defense for Europe, for example – and get nothing in return.  But when we have a leftist in the White House, that's the policy we get.  With so much focus on our economy,  though, how many Americans are concentrating on relations with Russia?  I think I know two people.

We've noted before that one of the causes of World War II was the Great Depression, because free nations averted their eyes from foreign threats to nurse their economies.  The economies didn't get any better, but the foreign threats increased, and we paid a terrible price.  History doesn't repeat itself, but the psychology of history repeats itself, and I fear we've seen this movie before.

December 5, 2011      Permalink

CAIN REPORTEDLY FOR GINGRICH – AT 8:08 A.M. ET:  From The Politico:

Fox-5 in Atlanta, the same station that broke the Ginger White allegations, is reporting that Herman Cain is going to endorse Newt Gingrich on Monday. Gingrich's camp put a late add of a press conference at 1:45 p.m. on his schedule.

And Gingrich just added a media availability to his schedule in New York on Monday, suggesting the likelihood the endorsement will be held in Manhattan.

Gingrich was effusive in his praise of Cain while he himself was in New York over the weekend for a town hall event on Staten Island. And polling even before the former Godfather's Pizza CEO dropped out had suggested Gingrich would be the beneficiary of his support.

But it will give Gingrich a potentially immediate boost of a few more points in Iowa, where two polls over the weekend showed him as the clear frontrunner already at this stage of the game.

COMMENT:  As a rule, I think endorsements are overrated, unless they come from a political giant.  Herman Cain may be many things, but a political giant he ain't.  At the same time, an endorsement probably will add a few points for Gingrich in Iowa, and helps him keep the momentum he's been building up.

Most political pundits, though, still wonder when something devastating may drop on the Gingrich campaign.  Remember, every serious rival to Mitt Romney who has risen in the polls has then crashed.  Newt is the last guy standing.  The other "contenders" are way back in the pack. 

Voting in Iowa is January 3rd., less than a month away.

December 5,  2011     Permalink