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DECEMBER 21,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:17 P.M.

THE GRIEF, THE PAIN – Jimmy ("I'm the best ex-president ever") Carter has sent his condolences to North Korea over the death of Dear Leader Kim Jong Il.  He wished "every success" to the young son expected to take over for his departed father.  Carter also said he looked forward to another visit to North Korea.  I do hope he goes, and I hope he stays.  There's work to be done in North Korea – homes to be built and peanuts to be grown.  I'm sure Jimmy could find a great deal to occupy his time.

IOWA LATEST – Scott Rasmussen reports the latest from his polling in Iowa:  Romney is on top with 25%, Ron Paul has 20%, and Newt Gingrich has 17%.  The two Ricks, Perry and Santorum, both have 10%, and Michele Bachmann 6%.  But political experts in Iowa say the race is in turmoil, and that literally anyone can win because the caucus system tends to favor not the most wanted candidate, but the best organized.  So Republicans are bracing for a possible Ron Paul victory, which might send the Iowa caucuses into the dustbin of history.

NOW THAT'S A LUXURY CAR – A new study shows that each Chevy Volt sold thus far may have cost taxpayers as much as $250,000 in state and federal incentives.  There are all kinds of programs and gimmicks that were set up to advance the production and sale of the Volt, particularly because it represents "new" technology.  The problem, of course, is that there are very few on the road.  I have seen precisely one Volt since its introduction, and the driver had an unhappy expression on his face.  The car is sold at luxury prices, but people who can write that kind of check will opt for a Lexus, a Mercedes, or, if they want a Chevy, they'll add a bit more and go for a Corvette, and feel young.  "Hey, I've got a Volt," just doesn't do it.

THIS IS NOT THE SPIRIT OF CHRISTMAS – Thousands of drunken Santas terrorized lower Manhattan earlier this month for something called SantaCon, openly flouting drinking laws.  Neighborhood residents are complaining that the New York Police Department devoted too many resources to the Occupy Wall Street movement and not enough to the marauding Santas, who have become an annual nuisance.  Look, I'm not kidding about this story.  It's here.  The website of SantaCon says,  "Santa does not accept corporate sponsorship or speak to the press."  I wonder why.

December 21, 2011       Permalink

POLLING IN A CRITICAL STATE – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  Virginia is a critical swing state.  Once reliably conservative, it went for Obama in 2008, the first time since 1964 it had gone for a Democrat.  A new poll shows Newt Gingrich leading for the Republican nomination against Romney in Virginia, but faltering in the general election.  From The Politico:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged ahead of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in Virginia, a new survey shows.

Gingrich has a 30 percent to 25 percent lead over Romney, but both are well above the rest of the pack, none of whom holds more than 9 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. In October, Gingrich was sitting at just 7 percent, compared to Romney’s 21 percent.

In a head-to-head matchup, Gingrich widens his lead against Romney, 47 percent to 39 percent.
However, Romney matches up more favorably against President Barack Obama, beating the incumbent 44 percent to 42 percent. Obama would beat Gingrich 46-41 percent, the poll shows.

“Speaker Newt Gingrich jumps into the lead among Virginia Republicans, but Gov. Mitt Romney’s calling card is still that he seems to have a better chance of actually winning the White House if nominated,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

A majority of Virginia voters disapprove of the President’s job performance, with 51 percent indicating disapproval and 42 percent indicating approval.

Meanwhile, the Virginia Senate race - featuring two former governors - remains incredibly tight, with Republican George Allen at 44 percent and Democrat Tim Kaine at 42 percent.

COMMENT:  Republicans must now fight for Virginia.  It can be won, with the right presidential candidate. 

Indeed, recent polling all over the country seems to suggest that Republican voters are looking very closely at the "electability" question, and are growing impatient with purely ideological arguments.  That may well account for Newt's sudden dive and Romney's firming up of his base.  When some polls started showing that Ron Paul could win the Iowa caucuses, even the Republican governor of that state, Terry Branstad, urged the nation to ignore the results if Paul won, an extraordinary statement for a governor.  But a commendable one.

December 21, 2011       Permalink

THE IMPORTANCE OF A PIPELINE – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  While President Obama delays a decision on the vital Keystone oil pipeline from Canada, which could be instrumental in diminishing our dependence on Mideast oil, others have understood a pipeline's value.  This story has somehow been overlooked by most of the media.  From AP:

(AP) DOHA, Qatar — The oil minister of the United Arab Emirates says a new crude oil pipeline that will bypass the strategically sensitive Strait of Hormuz is almost finished.

Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli made the comments on Monday. He spoke to reporters on the sidelines of an oil industry meeting in the Qatari capital Doha.

He declined to say when the pipeline would open, though his comments suggest it could become operational soon.

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline project aims to ship crude from the UAE's main oil producing region to the port of Fujairah on the country's Gulf of Oman coast.

That would allow some of the OPEC member's oil to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, access to which is shared by Iran and Oman.

COMMENT:  One of the great concerns expressed about a military attack on Iran's nuclear program is that Tehran could then retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a good chunk of the world's oil passes.  That would have an immediate, and severe impact on oil supplies and oil prices, and therefore on the world's economy.

The pipeline eases that concern, although doesn't eliminate it.  The pipeline itself could be attacked by Iran.  But the presence of a pipeline does complicate Iran's strategy, and gives us a bit of an advantage. 

December 21, 2011      Permalink

THE BLUNDERING GOP? – AT 8:47 A.M. ET:  Has the Republican House leadership enlisted in the Obama reelection campaign?  To some observers, including some very conservative observers, that appears to be the case. 

Yesterday, the House refused even to vote on the Senate plan to extend the cut in Social Security taxes for two months, while a permanent plan is readied.  This means that, unless the Senate is brought back from Christmas recess for some last-minute agreement, the cut will expire on New Year's Day.  And that means Americans will immediately see a smaller paycheck.

Even the reliably conservative Wall Street Journal is dismayed by this strategy: 

GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell famously said a year ago that his main task in the 112th Congress was to make sure that President Obama would not be re-elected. Given how he and House Speaker John Boehner have handled the payroll tax debate, we wonder if they might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.

The GOP leaders have somehow managed the remarkable feat of being blamed for opposing a one-year extension of a tax holiday that they are surely going to pass. This is no easy double play.

Republicans have also achieved the small miracle of letting Mr. Obama position himself as an election-year tax cutter, although he's spent most of his Presidency promoting tax increases and he would hit the economy with one of the largest tax increases ever in 2013. This should be impossible.

House Republicans yesterday voted down the Senate's two-month extension of the two-percentage-point payroll tax holiday to 4.2% from 6.2%. They say the short extension makes no economic sense, but then neither does a one-year extension. No employer is going to hire a worker based on such a small and temporary decrease in employment costs, as this year's tax holiday has demonstrated. The entire exercise is political, but Republicans have thoroughly botched the politics.

And finally...

At this stage, Republicans would do best to cut their losses and find a way to extend the payroll holiday quickly. Then go home and return in January with a united House-Senate strategy that forces Democrats to make specific policy choices that highlight the differences between the parties on spending, taxes and regulation. Wisconsin freshman Senator Ron Johnson has been floating a useful agenda for such a strategy. The alternative is more chaotic retreat and the return of all-Democratic rule.

COMMENT:  A good political strategy is always important, and thoroughly honorable.  If you can't play big-league politics, you don't belong in the big leagues. 

We have long commented here on the Republican propensity to lose elections.  Read the entire WSJ piece.  The GOP blundering in Congress can bring down the party's presidential nominee.  In 1948 Harry Truman ran against the "Republican do-nothing Congress."  Obama, while lacking Truman's fighting spirit, can do the same, and squeeze out a victory in what should be a Republican year:

The great nightmare:  that the GOP can not only lose the presidential election, but lose control of the House as well.  Every poll shows revulsion toward Congress.  Does the House Republican leadership understand that revulsion turns into votes? 

December 21, 2011       Permalink 

NEW TOUGHNESS ON IRAN? – AT 8:34 A.M. ET:  One day after Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned that Iran was within a year of building an atomic bomb, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff sternly warned Iran not to underestimate our resolve.

Is this a change of policy, or campaign rhetoric designed to make a weak, vacillating president look tough and centrist?  From CNN:

KABUL, Afghanistan (CNN) -- As Gen. Martin Dempsey toured around the globe over the last eight days, one issue was prominent -- Iran's nuclear intentions.

Dempsey, in an exclusive interview with CNN, warned that Iran is playing a dangerous game that could ensnare the Middle East, the United States and others into conflict and a renewed nuclear arms race. From Iraq to Afghanistan, Kuwait to Saudi Arabia, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff heard about growing concerns about Iran's ambitions.

"My biggest worry is they will miscalculate our resolve," Dempsey said in an interview conducted during a stop in Afghanistan. "Any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict, and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world."

And...

Behind the scenes Dempsey is quietly leading the ongoing military planning for an attack against Iran's nuclear weapons in the event the president gives the order to do so.

"We are examining a range of options," Dempsey said, echoing the "all options on the table" line used by administration officials.

Dempsey, the highest-ranking officer in the U.S. military, said the military options are achievable.

COMMENT:  Previously, any warning to Iran was usually followed by a ridiculous public lecture about the danger of a military attack on Iran's nuclear program, a lecture that would effectively negate any sign of firmness by the administraiton.  This time, at least thus far, we haven't gotten that lecture.

Again, we don't know whether this is a change, or just campaign rhetoric ordered by the White House.  Stand by.  The year 2012 looks to be critical for the Iran nuclear issue.

December 21, 2011     Permalink

DECEMBER 20,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:51 P.M. ET:

A WARNING FROM THE NORTH – There is no more pro-American leader in the world than Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada.  But even Harper is getting fed up with the antics of the Obama administration.    He revealed that he had warned Washington that he was serious about selling oil to Asian markets, especially China, after President Obama put the Keystone Canada-to-US pipeline on hold.  The pipeline is critical to Canada, which is a major oil exporter.  Its oil could help relieve American dependence on Middle Eastern oil, but rigid environmentalists are trying to stop the pipeline, even though the states it will pass through have no objection.

THE LATEST BLUNDER – In a stunning decision that defies all logic, the administration will be reducing the National Guard presence on the Mexican border by 75%.  This comes at a time of increasing concern that terror groups could smuggle weapons of mass destruction, in parts, across that border.  The administration argues that aerial surveillance will fill in the gap, but we have often learned, painfully, that boots are the ground are still the best way to secure an area.  We hope this becomes a campaign issue, if in fact Republicans show some interest in running a winning campaign.

SYRIAN ARMY IN CRISIS – Some 5,000 Syrians have died in the government crackdown on dissent in recent months.  But the force that carries out most of the crackdown is itself coming apart.  Sources inside Syria claim that some 10,000 soldiers have defected, and that as many as half the conscripts in the last three call-ups have not reported for duty.  Western intelligence officers say that, while the top officers are still loyal to the Assad regime in Damascus, lower-ranked officers are deserting in large numbers, and sometimes whole units desert.  Still, the regime shows no signs of yielding power.

OBAMA WON'T BE AT HAVEL FUNERAL – The funeral of former Czech Republic President Vaclev Havel, considered a giant in the democracy movement that swept away the Soviet Union, is turning into a major international event, with many heads of state planning to attend.  One head of state won't be there – ours.  President Obama is sending Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her husband, the former president.  There is no word on whether Vice President Biden will attend, or has even heard about it.  I don't think Obama's absence is an intentional snub, but Obama should go, in recognition of Havel's contribution to the post-Soviet world.

December 20, 2011       Permalink

PICTURE OF THE DAY – AT 8:29 P.M. ET:  Forwarded to us by our Iranian democracy activist friend, Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi.  This is from a spirited website called badrachel.blogspot.com, and shows Syrian freedom fighters.  It speaks for itself:

Yeah, we've been thinking the same thing.

December 20, 2011      Permalink

SHE'S BAAACK! – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  Sarah Palin ruled herself out as a presidential candidate for 2012.  But did she?  Sarah is dropping hints again, and when Sarah drops hints, the political class listens.  From Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Tea Party champion Sarah Palin, who has already ruled out a 2012 presidential run, on Monday attempted to dangle her name anew as a possible Republican candidate, although it's probably too late.

In an interview to air on Fox Business Network's "Follow the Money" program, the 2008 Republican nominee for vice president was asked whether she would still consider a run for the White House.

"It's not too late for folks to jump in," Palin said. "Who knows what will happen in the future."

Palin, the former Alaskan governor, ended months of speculation when she said in October that she would not seek to unseat President Barack Obama.

COMMENT:  I disagree with the reporter.  I don't think it's too late.  And you never know what Sarah may do.  If she sees deadlock, she could jump in.  There'd be some initial enthusiasm, but, despite my affection for her, I don't think it would last long.  The memories of Sarah's failure to grow as a political figure, and of her catastrophic resignation as governor of Alaska, are too fresh.

She has done nothing to improve her standing.  If she were still Governor Palin, she'd be seen differently.  But today she's seen as a TV personality. 

Could that change?  Well, she could try giving a series of serious speeches on specific policy subjects.  She could try holding a press conference and demonstrate that she knows the issues thoroughly.   There might be some attention paid.  She does have wonderful values, speaks from the heart, and I think she's a genuine patriot.  I've always liked her.  But she'd have to overcome her errors in a very short period of time.

It would be great theater if Sarah jumped back in.  I'm not sure it would be more than that, but I can't deny the ratings value.

December 20, 2011       Permalink 

AND NOW MR. PAUL – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Each Republican presidential candidate seems to get his or her 15 minutes of fame before being shot down.  Now it's Ron Paul's turn. 

Some polls predict that Paul, who has a superb ground organization in Iowa, will win the Iowa caucuses two weeks from today.  As one observer noted, if he does win, it will say more about the Iowa caucuses and their irrelevance than it will about Mr. Paul.

And it is reported that, if Paul does win in Iowa, the Republican establishment will destroy him as quickly as possible.  Most people who know Paul's strange history, and his goofball views on foreign policy, particularly his sympathy for Iran, have no use for the man, and for good reason.

One major issue is a series of newsletters that went out some years ago under Paul's name, even though he claims he didn't write the offending material, which was blatantly racist in tone.  Even if he didn't, the stuff had his name on it, and in the adult world that makes him responsible.  The conservative Weekly Standard has published excerpts, which are appalling:

Though particular articles rarely carried a byline, the vast majority were written in the first person, while the title of the newsletter, in its various iterations, always featured Paul’s name: Ron Paul’s Freedom Report, the Ron Paul Political Report, the Ron Paul Survival Report, and the Ron Paul Investment Letter. What I found was unpleasant.

“Order was only restored in L.A. when it came time for the blacks to pick up their welfare checks,” read a typical article from the June 1992 “Special Issue on Racial Terrorism,” a supplement to the Ron Paul Political Report. Racial apocalypse was the most persistent theme of the newsletters; a 1990 issue warned of “The Coming Race War,” and an article the following year about disturbances in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of Washington, D.C., was entitled “Animals Take Over the D.C. Zoo.” Paul alleged that Martin Luther King Jr., “the world-class philanderer who beat up his paramours,” had also “seduced underage girls and boys.” The man who would later proclaim King a “hero” attacked Ronald Reagan for signing legislation creating the federal holiday in his name, complaining, “We can thank him for our annual Hate Whitey Day.”

No conspiracy theory was too outlandish for Paul’s endorsement. One newsletter reported on the heretofore unknown phenomenon of “Needlin’,” in which “gangs of black girls between the ages of 12 and 14” roamed the streets of New York and injected white women with possibly HIV-infected syringes. Another newsletter warned that “the AIDS patient” should not be allowed to eat in restaurants because “AIDS can be transmitted by saliva,” a strange claim for a physician to make.

Paul gave credence to the theory, later shown to have been the product of a Soviet disinformation effort, that AIDS had been created in a U.S. government laboratory at Fort Detrick, Maryland. Three months before far-right extremists killed 168 Americans in Oklahoma City, Paul’s newsletter praised the “1,500 local militias now training to defend liberty” as “one of the most encouraging developments in America.” And he offered specific advice to antigovernment militia members, such as, “Keep the group size down,” “Keep quiet and you’re harder to find,” “Leave no clues,” “Avoid the phone as much as possible,” and “Don’t fire unless fired upon, but if they mean to have a war, let it begin here.”

COMMENT:  As we noted, Paul has since "disavowed" those comments.  But disavowal is a joke.  It usually occurs when someone gets caught.  Does anyone doubt that those are Paul's views, when they went out constantly in newsletters bearing his name at the top, over a period of years?

And Paul's foreign-policy views still bring gasps.  He says Iran has a perfect right to an atomic bomb, and he has largely blamed the United States for 9/11.   He has said he'd consider Dennis Kucinich for his cabinet.  In fact, Paul's foreign-policy views echo those of the fringe left. 

But Paul can say some interesting and rebellious things on domestic affairs, which probably accounts for some of his sudden surge in Iowa.  Democrats would love to see him nominated by the Republican Party because he would be defeated by a huge margin. 

He will not be nominated.  If that ever happened, the GOP would split, the Paul-bots would inherit an empty shell, and a new party, based on the party of Ronald Reagan, would be formed.

We hope the Republicans of Iowa are wise enough not to embarrass themselves.

December 20, 2011       Permalink

EGYPT IN TURMOIL – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  Egypt is a mess.  The country is into its fifth day of rioting.  The term "Arab spring" seems to be fading.  On the one hand, the people are going to the polls and electing Islamic extremists by the busload.  On the other hand, the military is asserting itself.  This is not a recipe for a garden party:

(Reuters) - Egyptian police and soldiers firing guns and teargas fought to clear protesters from Cairo's Tahrir Square Tuesday, the fifth day of clashes that have killed 13 people and drawn a stinging rebuke from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Clinton condemned as "particularly shocking" incidents such as one in which two Egyptian soldiers were filmed dragging a woman protester on the ground by her shirt, exposing her underwear, then clubbing and kicking her.

"Women are being beaten and humiliated in the same streets where they risked their lives for the revolution only a few short months ago," America's top diplomat said in a speech at Washington's Georgetown University Monday.

The United States, which saw Egypt as a staunch ally in the era of deposed leader Hosni Mubarak, gives Cairo $1.3 billion a year in military aid.

Clinton said women had been mostly shut out of decision-making by Egypt's ruling military and by big political parties.

"Women protesters have been rounded up and subjected to horrific abuse. Journalists have been sexually assaulted. And now, women are being attacked, stripped, and beaten in the streets," she added.

COMMENT:  We are relieved to learn that Hillary has noticed.  But she seems only to notice abuses by the army and the police.  When some female journalists were horribly treated by crowds of anti-government demonstrators some months ago, our State Department was curiously tolerant. 

No one is making any firm predictions about Egypt.  Clearly, the army is not inclined to let the Islamists take over without providing some countervailing power. 

Our government cheered on the "democratization" of Egypt, ignoring warnings that the truly liberal forces that began the "Facebook revolution" in the spring were being shunted aside in favor of the Islamic bloc.  The people of Egypt, having been suppressed for an eternity, are going to the polls and voting for the only truly organized forces in the country...again the Islamists.

Most revolutions fail.  This one is on its way down.

December 20, 2011       Permalink 

NOT REASSURING – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, perhaps trying to clarify his recent public statements on the dangers of using military force against Iran, is now speaking more grimly about the Iranian bomb, and insisting that we'll never allow it.  Hollow words?  From CBS News:

(CBS News) The U.S. Secretary of Defense said Monday night that Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. In an interview, Leon Panetta, said despite the efforts to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, the Iranians have reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year or potentially less.

It's rare that American officials get that specific about time frames.  Panetta was interviewed by Scott Pelley:

Panetta: If they proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it.

Pelley: Including military steps?

Panetta: There are no options off the table

Pelley: A nuclear weapon in Iran is...

Panetta: Unacceptable.

COMMENT:  Do we take Panetta seriously?  I don't know.  But if he is serious, I wish he'd stop making speeches about the horrible consequences of military action against Iran.   All that does is erode the impact of his warnings about an Iranian bomb.

Panetta's time frame is interesting.  It encompasses the American presidential campaign.  I stress that this is speculation, but American military action to prevent an Iranian bomb, launched sometime late in the campaign, might well guarantee Obama's re-election.  Americans rally 'round the president in times of crisis, and Obama, with one swoop, would do away with the widespread belief that he's a weak, indecisive president.  A Republican candidate would have to support military action if it occurred.  It's part of the game.

Would Obama launch a military strike for political gain?  I really don't think he'd do so unless there was a pressing military need.  But, once that need were established, and it wouldn't be difficult to do so, I wouldn't be shocked if political calculations entered into his decision.  He is obsessed with re-election.

December 20,  2011     Permalink