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DECEMBER 26,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:07 P.M.

OBAMA STRONG IN NEW GALLUP POLL – Confirming the trend of the last 10 days, President Obama has risen again in the Gallup Poll.  His approval now stands at 47%, disapproval at 45%.  This is the first time since summer that the president's approval outstripped disapproval in the Gallup survey.  It's clear that the president gained from his confrontation with congressional Republicans over the payroll tax cut extension.  As most political observers noted at the time, the GOP fell right into a Democratic trap and came off as the bad guy.  It has happened before.  The Republican Party goes out of its way to lose elections, and is putting in some good practice.

COMPANY FOR OBAMA – The president has company on his Hawaiian vacation.  Nancy Pelosi has arrived, and slipped into a lavish hotel suite that charges $10,000 a night.  Now, remember about two weeks ago, when Mitt Romney bet another candidate $10,000 over the truth of some statement?  Romney was widely criticized by the media for being "out of touch" with ordinary Americans.  We eagerly await the media's reaction to Nancy's hotel tab.  Perhaps we'll be told she reduced the cost with her AARP card and frequent flyer miles. 

A HIGH-PRIORITY PROJECT – Two scientists at Arizona State have proposed a study of hundreds of thousands of moon pictures to determine if there's any evidence that the moon was ever visited by space aliens.  They'll be looking for artifacts, trash, maybe space Thermos bottles.  The project hopes to enlist thousands of amateur enthusiasts, who'll use photos posted on the internet for the search.  I think they should recruit university speech and diversity police, who are widely experienced in spending days looking for nothing.

FAMILY MATTERS – The president has nominated one Kevin McNulty for a federal judgeship in New Jersey, but a little problem has emerged.  It turns out that said nominee is the brother-in-law of Chuck Schumer, the powerful Democratic senator from New York.  Now everyone is saying that they didn't know.  I mean, who would know Chuck's family?  No matter what the merits of the nominee, this smacks of blatant nepotism, and we wonder if the GOP has the political skill to exploit the issue.  If not, and if the nominee can read and write and state his home address, he's probably in.

December 26,  2011     Permalink 

OBAMA STRUGGLES IN KEY ELECTORAL STATES – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  A well-written Washington Times analysis indicates that the election will be decided in about a dozen states, and that President Obama faces a tough climb in those very states:

The 2012 presidential race will be decided in a dozen swing states, and President Obama faces a hard road to victory in many of them.

“It appears this election will be much more like Bush-Gore” in 2000, said Democratic strategist Steve McMahon, co-founder of Alexandria-based Purple Strategies. “The president ain’t gonna win by 95 electoral votes.”

Political strategists in both parties say the number of reliably Democratic states should give Mr. Obama at least 196 electoral votes, and the solidly Republican states should give the GOP nominee 191. With 270 electoral votes needed to win, the campaign will be fought in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — a total of 151 electoral votes up for grabs.

The president would need states totaling an additional 74 electoral votes, but the news in swing states isn’t good for him against the GOP front-runners. A Gallup/USA Today poll in mid-December showed Mr. Obama trailing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points in the 12 battleground states, and he trailed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 3 percentage points in those states. Nationwide, Mr. Obama leads Mr. Gingrich by 6 points and Mr. Romney by 1 point in the poll.

And...

The Gallup/USA Today poll also found that Democrats are declining as a percentage of all voters in the key swing states. The number of self-identified Democrats in the battleground states fell from 35 percent to 30 percent since 2008, while the number of Republicans rose 5 percentage points and independents increased by 7 percentage points. In 2008, when Mr. Obama won the swing states by 8 percentage points, Democrats held the advantage over Republicans in party identification by 11 points. The survey found that the Democrats’ advantage in party ID now has fallen to 2 percentage points.

COMMENT:  The whole piece is worth reading.  Republicans have such an opportunity...if they can execute a good campaign.  This is going to be major political combat, an election in which every voter is valuable.  It will not be dull.

December 26, 2011       Permalink

FASCINATING IN INDIA – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  India is the world's most populous democracy.   When it first became independent from Britain, the country was openly hostile to the United States, seeing us as a British ally.

I remember the tirades against America by Indian officials and diplomats in the 1950s and beyond.  But in recent years, as the post just below notes, America and India have grown closer, although India often continues to disappoint us with votes in the UN that follow the "third world" line. 

While India is a developing country, and its exports of top engineers and scientists have made an impact here in the U.S., it is also a country still mired in poverty.  Now a protest movement is speaking truth to power in India and stating the unthinkable – that the source of the poverty is corruption, and that this corruption is led by the Gandhi family.  Are we seeing the start of an "Indian spring"?  I hope so, because the deification of the Gandhi clan has been one of the great mistakes in post-independence India. 

(Reuters) - The Gandhi dynasty that has ruled India for most of the 64 years since independence has kept the world's largest democracy in poverty, leaders of a protest movement said on Monday as they prepared renewed rallies to target the government on corruption.

A three-day fast led by 74-year-old activist Anna Hazare and a plan for thousands of people to picket the home of Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi on New Years Eve will be a test of strength for the anti-corruption movement that forced a government U-turn in the summer.

"India was not destined to be a poor country, India was destined to be a developed country but corruption has kept it poor," said Kiran Bedi, a member of Hazare's inner circle.

"Who has exercised corruption? The party in power, and the party in power for the majority of the years has been the Congress party and in the Congress party, the Gandhi family."

India's fast-growing economy is Asia's third largest but many of the country's 1.2 billion people suffer from inadequate nutrition and have no electricity.

Hazare plans to begin his hunger strike in Mumbai on Tuesday. Almost 100,000 people have signed up online to express support for a the three-day "fill the jails" protest picketing politicians homes and courting arrest.

A fast led by Hazare in August brought tens of thousands of people onto the streets. After initially arresting him and dismissing him as an anarchist, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government caved in to his demands to quickly pass a tougher version of anti-graft legislation first proposed decades ago.

The protests also triggering an ongoing debate about the nature of India's democracy.

Those are important developments.  India is one of the most important countries in the world, well worth our time and effort.  What happens in India can have a substantial impact on our foreign policy in Asia.

For too many decades the Indian people have gone along with the Gandhis.  And the Gandhi aura has been helped mightily by the simplistic worship of the Gandhi name in other countries, especially in the West.  The original Gandhi big shot, Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi (Mahatma Gandhi) is revered by the pseudos for his "non-violent" resistance to British rule.  What a crock.  The only reason non-violence worked for Gandhi is that he was fighting a modern, civilized nation, Great Britain.  Had he been fighting the Nazis or the Soviets, he would have been gone within 24 hours.  Gandhi was basically an eccentric with little idea of how to form a free, prosperous state.  His clan has stayed too long.

This can grow into a major international story if the protest movement expands.

December 26, 2011       Permalink

AND NOW FOR THE REAL WORLD – AT 8:05 A.M. ET:  There's now a major attempt to portray Obama as a great foreign-policy president.  After all, he got bin Laden, didn't he?

Well, not quite.  It was the Navy SEALS who got bin Laden.  Obama gave the order, and deserves credit for that.

But when you look around, our foreign policy is really not in great shape.  Increasingly, Obama is being ignored, even ridiculed.  This is a president who came to office berating or snubbing our allies, while appeasing our enemies.  We have paid a price for that left-wing childishness. 

Michael Barone points out that the only areas in which Obama has succeeded internationally have been those in which he followed policies initiated by President Bush, or, in a few cases, by Bill Clinton.  Barone: 

Where Obama has done better is in regions where he has followed the trajectory of Bush's (and in some cases Bill Clinton's) policies.

In Africa, he has continued Bush's widely successful campaign to eradicate AIDS. But there are signs that in some African countries Bush is more popular than the president whose father was a citizen of Kenya.

In Asia, once you get east of the horrifying conundrum of Pakistan, Obama has built alliances, formal and informal, with the major countries ringing China. Foreign policy analyst Walter Russell Mead hails the recent and first trilateral talks between the U.S., Japan and India as "history made."

Obama has built on our rapprochement with India, started gingerly by Clinton and continued with gusto by Bush. Suddenly China finds itself surrounded by nations, including South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and, maybe, Burma, resisting its expansionist thrusts. Japan is buying F-35s, and Australia has agreed to host U.S. troops.

You didn't hear Obama (or his opponents) talk much about Asia in 2008. But it has the world's largest populations and fastest economic growth -- while Old Europe struggles to avoid the collapse of the euro.

Obama's policy there, which continued past initiatives, is a serious achievement. But not one he forecast in his 2008 campaign.

COMMENT:  That is correct.  The question is what will happen if Obama wins a second term, when he will be free of the political constraints of a re-election effort. 

I'm not optimistic on that score.  I think that, at base, he's still a leftist and may try to push through a leftist foreign policy, with the support of his base.  American security is too important to be left to a second-term Barack Obama.

December 26, 2011       Permalink

REFLECTION – AT 7:41 A.M. ET:  This is the week between Christmas and New Year's.  Unless something surprising happens, especially overseas, it's unlikely to be a major news week.  Newsmakers will not be announcing great initiatives this week.

We are a week and a day away from the Iowa caucuses.  Everything changes next week, when the news business will go from zero to eighty in about four seconds.  Once voting begins, the presidential campaign takes on an entirely different dimension.  The press is always drawn more to the game, with real numbers put on the board, than to the issues.

What I am reading across the internet right now is this:  1) The Iowa caucus results may well depend on weather.  If the weather is mild, which is what's predicted, Mitt Romney has a shot at winning.  If the weather is bitter, the scales tip toward Ron Paul, whose fanatical Paulbots will come out to vote, even if they have to trek through two feet of snow.  2)  Newt Gingrich, having soared in the polls, is in decline, in part because he's not been able to counter the onslaught against him.  There is little talk now of Gingrich being the nominee.  3) Ron Paul is having his 15 minutes, but no one seriously believes that he has a serious shot at the GOP nomination.  His foreign-policy views, which are to the left of the Democratic Party, and his past association with newsletters bearing openly racist opinions, will properly kill his chances.  4)  There is still major discontent among Republicans with the Republican field.  There is no great "wanting" of any of the candidates.  It's more a matter of settling on someone.

This is the kind of political moment that calls for someone to come in and "save" the party, as Dwight Eisenhower did in 1952.  This site has often urged the party to skip a generation and go to its young bench, but that just isn't happening.

In retrospect, the shrewdest political move in the last year probably belonged to Barack Obama, who had the political foresight to name General David Petraeus head of the CIA, effectively taking him out of politics.  A Petraeus candidacy may very well have captivated the Republicans, sending a highly regarded non-politician into battle against Obama. 

We are about to enter one of the most important election years in our recent history.  The idea of four more years of Obama sends shudders through many on our side.  But that's what we'll have unless the Republican Party gets its act together, focuses on an effective presidential candidate, and develops a congressional agenda that is far more than simply opposing the president.

December 26,  2011    Permalink

DECEMBER 25,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:35 P.M. ET:

ROMNEY ROMPS IN N.H. – The Iowa caucuses are a week from Tuesday.  Then, one week later comes the renowned (for some reason) New Hampshire primary.  A new University of New Hampshire poll shows that Mitt Romney has beaten back the challenges from Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, and now commands 39% of the vote, compared with 17% each for Gingrich and Paul. 

IRANIAN MILITARY WARMS TO IRAQ – In a move that surely will dishearten Americans, the chief of Iran's armed forces says that his country is ready to expand its security and military relationship with Iraq.  This comes only a week after President Obama pulled all American troops out of Iraq, leaving the country completely vulnerable.  If Iran now develops substantial influence in Iraq, which is quite possible, Obama's absolute withdrawal will be seen by many as a colossal failure, and a betrayal of American sacrifice.  But to others it will simply prove that the Iraqi situation is hopeless.  We lose either way, but "lose" is not an obscene word in this administration's vocabulary.

WE WONDER WHY – The New York Times reports much handwringing in Hollywood over a lackluster year, with results lower than 2010.  All kinds of reasons are given.  Competition from the internet, less disposable income, too many movies of one type, etc., etc.  I have another idea:  Maybe Hollywood should do something radical, like putting out more good movies with good stories that appeal across generations, and maybe the industry should charge less for tickets.  Isn't that what they did during something called "the golden age of Hollywood"?  But what did they know?

December 25, 2011       Permalink

COMEDOWN – AT 11:42 A.M. ET:  Typical.  This embarrassing story was dumped on Christmas eve, to get the minimum attention possible.  From Bloomberg:   

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign returned campaign contributions from Jon S. Corzine, former chairman and chief executive officer of MF Global Holdings Ltd., according to a Democratic official.

Obama for America and the Democratic National Committee refunded the money from the former New Jersey governor out of an abundance of caution, said the official, who requested anonymity. Republicans have criticized the president for keeping contributions from the head of a firm that collapsed and filed for bankruptcy.

Corzine, 64, and his wife, Sharon Elghanayan, each contributed $30,800 to the Democratic National Committee and $5,000 to Obama’s campaign, the maximum amounts that individuals are allowed to give, said the official. Corzine, who testified before a congressional panel about MF Global’s bankruptcy and $1.2 billion in missing customer funds, has been one of Obama’s top fundraisers this election cycle. In April, Corzine hosted a fundraiser for Obama at his Manhattan home.

Corzine was one of 41 donors who bundled more than $500,000 this year for Obama’s re-election effort, according to documents released by the campaign Oct. 14. So-called bundlers arrange for contributions from other people and funnel the money to campaigns.

COMMENT:  Probably a smart move, especially as Corzine might well wind up with serious charges against him.  But the story sure does puncture the image of the Democrats being "the party of the people."  Yeah, some very rich people who feel our pain.

But look, Obama is returning $70,000.   That's a little drop in his hugely funded campaign.  Don't worry for him.

December 25, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:03 A.M. ET:  From a well-written review of a new book on Russia expert George Kennan by former Washington Post foreign correspondent Susan B. Glasser:

Indeed, the tradition of getting Russia wrong has a distinguished Washington lineage, and one that I witnessed while covering the rise of Putin for The Washington Post in the early 2000s. In those years, Putin was reconsolidating power in the Kremlin, taking over independent media, jailing or banishing potential political opponents, shutting down elections for governor and putting into place a new security-state apparatus from such remnants of the Soviet police state as had survived the 1990s. Yet back in Washington, there were those who persisted in believing for years that Putin was not exactly as he seemed. Remember when George W. Bush looked into his “soul” in 2001? He wasn’t the only one. We encountered many, both at senior levels in the U.S. government and among the Westerners in Moscow, who were so eager to do business with a resurgent Kremlin that they were willing to rewrite the facts. The White House today faces a similar challenge as President Obama, who made a point of a “reset” in relations after the frosty U.S.-Russia standoff of the late Bush years, now leaves it to his secretary of state to lecture Putin on democracy. Will the administration read the Kremlin right this time?

COMMENT:  Ah, what a great question.  There is a line going around the Washington journalistic establishment – I heard it expressed vividly on a talk show this past week – that President Obama's greatest accomplishments have been in foreign policy.  I find that ludicrous.  And one reason for my disbelief is the botching of our "reset" of relations with Moscow.  We did all the resetting, they did all the obstructing.

Right now the Russians are trying to block any new, serious sanctions on Iran or Syria, which feature two of the worst regimes in the world.  And the Russians have succeeded in our modifying missile defense for Eastern Europe, while we got nothing in return.

Russia is building its strength again.  And, despite mass demonstrations against him in the streets of Moscow, Putin will probably regain the Russian presidency and make Russia even more anti-American than it is today.  Yet, too many Americans are averting their eyes.  And the president, now on one more Hawaiian vacation, is the chief averter. 

A price will be paid.

December 25, 2011        Permalink

TERROR IN NIGERIA – AT 10:45 A.M. ET:  Last night we commented on the condition of Christians in Muslim countries.  Today we have a terrible example, via AP:

LAGOS, Nigeria — An explosion ripped through a Catholic church during Christmas Mass near Nigeria’s capital Sunday, killing at least 25 people there, officials said. A radical Muslim sect claimed the attack and another bombing near a church in the restive city of Jos, as explosions also struck the nation’s northeast.

The Christmas Day attacks show the growing national ambition of the sect known as Boko Haram, which is responsible for at least 495 killings this year alone, according to an Associated Press count. The assaults come a year after a series of Christmas Eve bombings in Jos claimed by the militants left at least 32 dead and 74 wounded.

The first explosion on Sunday struck St. Theresa Catholic Church in Madalla, a town in Niger state close to the capital, Abuja, authorities said. Rescue workers recovered at least 25 bodies from the church and officials continued to tally those wounded in various hospitals, said Slaku Luguard, a coordinator with Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency.

COMMENT:  You'd think that events like this would evoke an uproar in Western, predominantly Christian nations, especially the United States.  But multiculturalism and political correctness have stilled too many voices, and some organizations, like the National Council of Churches, are still stuck in their leftist politics.

Islamism is growing rapidly in Africa.  Expect more attacks, a disturbing prospect to contemplate on Christmas day.

December 25,  2011     Permalink