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Scene above:  Constitution Island, where Revolutionary War forts still exist, as photographed from Trophy Point, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York
 

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FEBRUARY 2,  2011

SOME JUDICIAL COMMON SENSE – AT 7:32 P.M. ET:  This is an absolutely remarkable story, and proves that conservative complaints about the San Francisco-style Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, are absolutely accurate.  Why, even the U.S. Supreme Court seems to think so.  From Fox:

The Supreme Court may be sending a message to one of the country's most liberal appeals courts, unanimously overturning five consecutive cases out of the 9th Circuit in less than a week.

As the nation's biggest circuit, representing most of the western United States, it should come as no surprise that the 9th Circuit has more cases heard before the Supreme Court than any other jurisdiction -- in turn resulting in more reversals. But the latest string of rulings is unusual even for the 9th, which often is at odds with conservatives on the Supreme Court. The fact that the rulings were unanimous can be seen as a signal from on high that the circuit needs to get in line.

"That's an indication this court is way out of the mainstream," said Kent Scheidegger, legal director for the California-based Criminal Justice Legal Foundation. "They're getting impatient with them. They just keep coming back with this stuff."

The Supreme Court, in its rulings, signaled that the circuit must hew more closely to precedent and, in some cases, give more weight to state court rulings. Scheidegger said the high court used some "severe" language to get that message across.

In a Jan. 19 reversal, Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote that the 9th Circuit committed a "clear error" by overturning the murder conviction in the case of a Sacramento man. The Supreme Court accused the circuit of having "failed to accord the required deference" to the state court's decision -- in other words, the 9th Circuit horned in on the state's business when it shouldn't have.

COMMENT:  Read the story and some of the cases involved.  We can take at least limited comfort in the fact that even the liberal justices on the Supreme Court are rebelling against the Che Guevara wing of their profession.  Maybe the Republic will survive.

February 2, 2011       Permalink

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THINK YOU UNDERSTAND MIDDLE EAST POLITICS? – AT 7:11 P.M. ET:  There are big doings on the West Bank, controlled by the Palestinian Authority.  The Jerusalem Post reports

Dozens of supporters rallied in support of the Egyptian president; Fatah-controlled media call ElBaradei a "CIA agent."

Dozens of Fatah supporters demonstrated in Ramallah on Wednesday in support of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

The demonstration is the first of its kind in the West Bank since the beginning of the uprising in Egypt.

The demonstration coincided with the attack that was launched by Mubarak's supporters against anti-government protesters in Cairo.

Sources in Ramallah said that the demonstration was initiated by the PA leadership, which has banned anti-Mubarak protests in the West Bank.

The demonstrators shouted slogans condemning Egyptian opposition figure Mohammed ElBaradei as a “CIA agent” and warned against foreign intervention in Egypt’s internal affairs.

Fatah-controlled media outlets on Wednesday launched a scathing attack on ElBaradei, dubbing him a “war criminal” and holding him responsible for the Iraq war.

COMMENT:  So let me try to get this.  The Palestinian Authority, which is refusing any further negotiations with Israel, is generating demonstrations on behalf of Hosni Mubarak, considered one of Israel's closest allies in the Arab world, and a man on his way out.

It accuses the brainless Mohammed ElBaradei of being a CIA agent, when in fact he's anti-American, and says he was responsible for the Iraq War, which he opposed.

Readers, that is the Middle East.  And we have in the White House a man who thought that by waving his magic wand, he could change the region overnight. 

This is going to be a strange year.  Don't you think?

February 2, 2011       Permalink

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EGYPT UPDATE – AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  Violence is escalating in Cairo.  The situation looks very different from what it has looked like in recent days.  Pro-Mubarak forces, some possibly government or police employees in civilian clothes, are coming out in increasing numbers.

One group of pro-Mubarak demonstrators roared in on camelback.

Former ambassador to the UN John Bolton just said on Fox that he believes the military will soon intervene.  Bolton also expressed dismay that the anti-government demonstrators in the streets didn't take "yes" for an answer, didn't agree to Mubarak's plan to decline to run in the September election, allowing a peaceful and organized transition. 

Conditions are changing by the hour.   One key factor, not reported in much detail by the press, is how much residual support Mubarak has.  There are many Egyptians, especially in the lower classes, who respect Mubarak for the stability he's brought to the country.  They may well resent anti-government demonstrators from the middle classes.

The Egyptian foreign ministry has just sternly rejected American and European demands that Mubarak start the transition immediately.  The firmness of the statement indicates that the Mubarak regime feels it has the power to keep itself in power through September.  And that may indicate a belief that the army is not going to let the country descend into chaos.

Watch what the army does.

February 2, 2011      Permalink

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GORE SPEAKS!! – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  It must be tough being Al Gore these days.  Tipper has left the residence, and the global-warming crusade has run into thousands of snow plows and a lot of shivering peasants. 

But don't underestimate Gore.  He knows, he knows.  He's spoken to "scientists."  From on high he issues the following wisdom: 

"As it turns out, the scientific community has been addressing this particular question for some time now and they say that increased heavy snowfalls are completely consistent with what they have been predicting as a consequence of man-made global warming:

"In fact, scientists have been warning for at least two decades that global warming could make snowstorms more severe. Snow has two simple ingredients: cold and moisture. Warmer air collects moisture like a sponge until it hits a patch of cold air. When temperatures dip below freezing, a lot of moisture creates a lot of snow..."

Just a sec, just a sec.  Meteorologist and global-warming skeptic Anthony Watts has something to say about that:

Apparently, Mr. Gore has never noted that climate scientists once thought snowfall would disappear. But wait, there’s more.

According to Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

Also, apparently Mr. Gore is unable to track the global monthly temperature. If he had, he would note that there is no “global warming” this month.

Oh.  As Gilda Radner used to say, "Never mind."

And NASA-affiliated meteorologist Roy Spencer elaborates on the question of this winter's severe storm pattern:

...I would more likely chalk it up to something we used to call “WEATHER”.

Let me give you a few factoids:

1) No serious climate researcher — including the ones I disagree with — believes global warming can cause colder weather. Unless they have become delusional as a result of some sort of mental illness. One of the hallmarks of global warming theory is LESS extratropical cyclone activity — not more.

2) If some small region of the Earth is experiencing unusually persistent storminess, you can bet some other region is experiencing unusually quiet weather. You see, in the winter we get these things called ’storm tracks’….

3) Evidence for point #2 is that we now have many years of global satellite measurements of precipitation which shows that the annual amount of precipitation that falls on the Earth stays remarkably constant from year to year. The AREAS where it occurs just happen to move around a whole lot. Again, we used to call that “weather."

4) Global average temperature anomalies (departures from seasonal norms) have been falling precipitously for about 12 months now. Gee, maybe these snowstorms are from global cooling! Someone should look into that! (I know…cold and snow from global cooling sounds crazy….I’m just sayin’….)

COMMENT:  Are you getting the feeling that we've been had by "climate change" proponents?  Remember that much of the "research" in this area is generated by the UN, which has its own political agenda.  And we haven't even begun to explore the amount of money being made.

For those of you in the path of today's Midwest storm:  Enjoy the warming.

February 2, 2011       Permalink

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SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:

Let us not forget.  From The Politico:   Rep. Gabrielle Giffords had a “huge day” Tuesday with “lots of progress,” her husband said, through it’s not yet clear whether that progress means she spoke or hit another major milestone.  The Arizona Democrat’s husband, NASA astronaut Mark Kelly, wrote on Twitter late Tuesday, “Today was a huge day for GG. Lots of progress!”

Good.  She's a terrific lady, and he's a terrific guy.  The best of America.

February 2, 2011       Permalink

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"THE OTHER SIDE" COMES OUT IN CAIRO – AT 8:11 A.M. ET:   Is there a "silent majority" or even "silent minority" in Egypt that actually likes Mubarak?  We don't know, and we won't speculate, but pro-Mubarak forces are on the streets today.  And the military, the strongest and most respected force in Egypt, is now asking that the street protests end.  That is important.  From The New York Times:

CAIRO —Thousands of demonstrators for and against President Hosni Mubarak faced off in Cairo’s Tahrir Square and violent clashes broke out on Wednesday, despite a call from Egypt’s powerful military urging the president’s opponents to “restore normal life.”...

...The square has been the epicenter of anti-government protests since soon after the clamor for Mr. Mubarak’s ouster began over a week ago. But on Wednesday, Mr. Mubarak’s supporters arrived in larger numbers, seeking to confront his foes who, hours before, had been chanting: “We are not going to go; we are not going to go.”

In counterpoint, demonstrators supporting Mr. Mubarak chorused on Wednesday: “He’s not going to go; he’s not going to go.”

Rocks flew between the two groups and many protesters were led away with bleeding head wounds. Plumes of smoke, apparently from tear gas, rose as the rival crowds surged back and forth.

And...

Earlier, on state television, a military spokesman had asked the government’s foes: “Can we walk safely down the street? Can we go back to work regularly? Can we go out into the streets with our children to schools and universities? Can we open our stores, factories and clubs?”

“You are the ones able to restore normal life,” he said.

“Your message was received and we know your demands,” the spokesman said. “We are with you and for you.”

And get this...

While the military has said it will not use force against peaceful protesters, the signs on Wednesday suggested that any gap between it and Mr. Mubarak was narrowing.

The Army is clearly not going to be happy about yielding power to a mob.  This story in Egypt is far from over. 

President Obama, moving quickly against an ally, has already thrown Mubarak under the bus, where he joins a host of other FFO's, former friends of Obama.  Was it a wise step?  Impossible to know, but our chief isn't renowned for great wisdom, or loyalty.

Day by day, this story gets more and more interesting.

February 2, 2011      Permalink 

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WHOOPS, ANOTHER ONE DOWN – AT 8:02 A.M. ET:  Now the top man in Yemen, apparently realizing that bad stuff can happen to him, announces he's joining the proletariat:

(CNN) -- Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh will not seek re-election once his current term ends in 2013, he said Wednesday, after more than three decades in office.

And he won't install his son to replace him, he said, as unprecedented protests sweep the region.
"No extension, no inheritance," he told parliament.

Kids of dictators just aren't having a very good week.  Thrones are suddenly available.  Maybe a bicycle would be a nice gift.

Saleh had called an emergency parliamentary meeting, ahead of a "day of rage" protests scheduled for the following day.

Yemen's planned demonstrations come amid rallies that have shaken the Middle East to its core, forcing Tunisia's president from office last month and prompting Egypt's Hosni Mubarak to say Tuesday he would not run for re-election this year.

King Abdullah of Jordan, meanwhile, sacked his government and appointed a new prime minister Tuesday in the face of protests there.

The protests -- which have also caught on to various extents in Algeria and Sudan -- have proved to be "a real watershed event for the Arab world," said Blake Hounshell, managing editor of Foreign Policy magazine. "It's really unprecedented."

COMMENT:   So, we have Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen, where heads have been rolling, so to speak. 

But remember, it's the Arab world, a part of the globe with an endless capacity to screw things up.  This may not all end well, or even democratically.  The question is how you mold a population kept uninformed for decades, and fed conspiracy theories, into a functioning electorate. 

And we think we have problems in Chicago.

February 2, 2011     Permalink

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FEBRUARY 1,  2011

ANOTHER WARNING ABOUT ISLAMIC EXTREMISM, THIS ONE NUCLEAR – AT 8:13 P.M. ET:  We received one warning about the Iranian nuclear program yesterday from the British defense minister.  Now we get a warning about Al Qaeda and nuclear weapons, from London's Telegraph:

Al-Qaida is on the verge of producing radioactive weapons after sourcing nuclear material and recruiting rogue scientists to build "dirty" bombs, according to leaked diplomatic documents.

A leading atomic regulator has privately warned that the world stands on the brink of a "nuclear 9/11".

Security briefings suggest that jihadi groups are also close to producing "workable and efficient" biological and chemical weapons that could kill thousands if unleashed in attacks on the West.

Thousands of classified American cables obtained by the WikiLeaks website and passed to The Daily Telegraph detail the international struggle to stop the spread of weapons-grade nuclear, chemical and biological material around the globe.

And...

...al-Qaida documents found in Afghanistan in 2007 revealed that "greater advances" had been made in bioterrorism than was previously realized. An Indian national security adviser told American security personnel in June 2008 that terrorists had made a "manifest attempt to get fissile material" and "have the technical competence to manufacture an explosive device beyond a mere dirty bomb".

COMMENT:  Why do we have to be warned about Iran by the British defense minister, who himself is fighting a valiant fight against his own government, which would like to cut defense spending to the bone?  Why do we have to learn about Al Qaeda's nuclear progress from a British newspaper?

There is no real sense of urgency in the Obama administration, or among its supporters.  We are sleeping again, as we slept in 1939.

February 1, 2011      Permalink

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BULLETIN:  MUBARAK WON'T RUN AGAIN – AT 4:25 P.M. ET:

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Bowing to a week of protests in the streets of Cairo, Hosni Mubarak announced Tuesday that he will wrap up nearly 30 years as Egypt's president in September and hand over power "in a constitutional way."

"I have spent enough time serving Egypt," Mubarak told his people in a televised address Tuesday night, adding, "My first responsibility now is to restore the security of the homeland, to achieve a peaceful transition of power in an environment that will protect Egypt and Egyptians and which will allow for the responsibility to be given to whoever the people elect in the forthcoming elections."

Mubarak's current term ends in September, and he said he had already decided not to run again. Protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square, where thousands have gathered for days to call for his ouster, erupted in cheers with the announcement -- but several of them have said they will continue to demand Mubarak's immediate resignation.

"This is not enough," Mahmoud Safi, a lawyer taking part in the Cairo demonstrations, told CNN after reports of Mubarak's impending announcement emerged. "We have one request. We want him to leave our country now, immediately, not tomorrow."

COMMENT:  News reports from a variety of sources say that Mubarak was pushed by the United States to vacate the presidency. 

We don't yet know whether Mubarak's decision, which keeps him in power until September, will be accepted by the protesters, or whether the sentiments expressed by the lawyer in our quote above will prevail.

We are in a very dangerous period.  John Bolton, our former (and great) UN ambassador, said it best today when he warned about accepting a free election as the final test of democracy.  Democracy, he said, is a way of life, not just an election. 

Some commentators are noting the contrast between Barack Obama's indifferent treatment of democracy demonstrators in Iran, an enemy of the United States, and his turning on Mubarak, a friend. 

We're watching this closely.

February 1, 2011      Permalink

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SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:

From the Washington Times:  According to survey data from the Pew Global Attitudes Project released in June 2010, the United States had a 30 percent approval rating in Egypt in 2006, which at the time was higher than U.S. approval in Spain. This dropped to 22 percent by the end of the Bush years. The burst of enthusiasm that attended Mr. Obama’s outreach effort boosted favorability slightly to 27 percent, but in 2010 disappointment set in and approval dropped 10 points to 17 percent, tying Egypt with Turkey and Pakistan for the most negative view of the United States of any country in the world.

So much for the magic hand of Barack Obama.  Bush looks better and better every day.

February 1, 2011       Permalink

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WARNING ON IRAN – AT 9:19 A.M. ET:  We focus on Egypt, and now Jordan, but let us not forget the Iranian threat, that lurks in the background.  Britain's defense minister, the superb Liam Fox, who thinks more like an American than Americans do, has issued a sharp warning, which brings us back to reality.  From London's Telegraph:

LONDON— Iran may be capable of developing a nuclear weapon by next year, Britain's defense secretary told lawmakers on Monday.

Liam Fox told the House of Commons he disagreed with Israel's newly retired spy chief, Meir Dagan, who said this month that Iran would not be able to build a nuclear bomb before 2015.

Fox said the West should be wary of optimism over Iran's nuclear program and make decisions on the basis of the most pessimistic assessment of its capability.

His remarks follow the failure of the US, Britain, France and Germany, Russia and China in talks earlier this month to persuade Iran to open its atomic program to more scrutiny.

Teheran claims its nuclear program is limited to developing civilian power. The US and allies insist Iran is working on the covert development of nuclear weapons.

"We know from previous experience, not least from what happened in North Korea, that the international community can be caught out, assuming that things are more rosy than they are," Fox told lawmakers. "We should therefore be entirely clear. It is entirely possible that Iran may be on the 2012 end of that spectrum."

Fox said that the West should act "in accordance with that warning."

COMMENT:  By the way, Liam Fox is a doctor of medicine, and applies strict, rational reasoning to his work.  He is first class, and very pro-American.

He gives us wisdom, which I prefer to "hope and change."

February 1, 2011       Permalink

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WATCH OUT FOR THIS GENT – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  The figure being most talked about as leading a coalition of protesters into a new era for Egypt is Mohamed ElBaradei.  You may remember him in his starring role as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Some of our best journalists are taking a look at ElBaradei today, and what they see they don't like.  Claudia Rossett, long one of our leading foreign-affairs journalists, sums it up at Pajamas Media:

As head of the IAEA, ElBaradei often looked like a shill for Iran — repeatedly glossing over obvious signs of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, obfuscating the realities, and delaying action. In the Jerusalem Post, Caroline Glick gives a good rundown of how, in the U.S. effort to corral Iran’s nuclear program, ElBaradei was not part of the answer, but part of the problem. Glick also describes ElBaradei’s cozy relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood — progenitor of al-Qaeda and Hamas — quoting him as giving a recent interview to Der Spiegel in which he claimed the Muslim Brotherhood has “not committed any acts of violence in five decades.”

In 2009, as I reported at the time here on Pajamas Media, ElBaradei most inappropriately used his platform as erstwhile “neutral” head of the IAEA to bully the BBC for dropping plans to broadcast a fund-raiser for terrorist-controlled Gaza. As for his 2005 Nobel prize, bestowed despite a tenure that spanned Pakistan’s breakout nuclear test, North Korea’s nuclear buildup to its 2006 first nuclear test, and Iran’s lively pursuit of the bomb, this was one of those Norwegian choices that had nothing to do with peace, and plenty to do with political machinations. Coming in 2005, at the height of the Oil-for-Food scandal, ElBaradei’s Nobel looked more like a sop to shore up a UN sinking in its own sleaze than an award that should inspire respect.

Egypt desperately needs honest, genuinely democratic leaders to emerge from the current inferno. ElBaradei may look smooth and convenient, with his UN past, his Nobel, and his longtime skills at self-promotion. But please, not ElBaradei.

COMMENT:  The sad fact is, though, that ElBaradei is just the kind of man who could win international "respect" in the parlors of Europe and Georgetown. 

In addition to the information presented by Claudia, please note that ElBaradei had a hostile relationship with the Bush administration, which tried to prevent him from being reappointed head of the IAEA.  He is not seen as a friend of the United States.  We wonder whether that bothers Obama, who seems totally lost in the current crisis.

February 1, 2011       Permalink

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EGYPT TODAY – AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  As predicted, the streets of Cairo are jammed with protesters today, although it is questionable whether predictions of a million citizens will materialize.

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Protesters packed Cairo's Tahrir Square at mid-day Tuesday, standing shoulder-to-shoulder as large groups still streamed into area for the planned "march of millions."

Soldiers stood guard and helicopters hovered overhead as demonstrators gathered to demand President Hosni Mubarak's resignation.

Egypt's government posted troops at key locations and cut internet service as activists pledged to hold major demonstrations in Cairo, Alexandria and other cities Tuesday -- a week after rallies began calling for an end to Mubarak's nearly 30-year rule.

In Cairo, protesters set up their own checkpoints to keep weapons out of Tahrir -- or Liberation -- Square.
Inside the square, the atmosphere was peaceful.

At the same time, American journalists and policy wonks are divided in how to proceed.  The children, including Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times – a living example of the fact that a Rhodes Scholarship doesn't make one wise – are all gung-ho for the demonstrators, unconcerned about what they actually stand for.  Hey, this is democracy.  It's a big crowd.  The masses are in the streets, like in our college textbooks.  Let's sing.

But some of the adults are starting to ask questions.  What do these people really want?  Will they tear up the Egypt-Israel peace treaty and plunge the region into war?  What were they taught in school?

Journalists who know history understand that "democratic" movements, without accompanying standards of justice and tolerance, can lead to catastrophe.  In that connection, a survey of Egyptian public opinion is more than disturbing.  From Byron York at the Washington Examiner

Last year the Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project conducted a survey of opinion in several Muslim countries. The subject was the proper role of Islam in politics and society. One of the countries surveyed was Egypt, and among other discoveries, the Pew researchers found that 84 percent of Egyptians favor the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim religion.

In another survey, Pew found that 90 percent of Egyptians say they believe in freedom of religion. Pew also found that a majority of Egyptians think democracy, with protections of free speech and assembly, is "preferable to any other kind of government."

How can those attitudes fit together in a democratic post-Mubarak Egypt? It's no wonder so many people can't figure out what is next.

The Pew survey found wide streams of opinion in Egypt that seem at the very least inhospitable to democracy. When asked which side they would take in a struggle between "groups who want to modernize the country [and] Islamic fundamentalists," 59 percent of Egyptians picked the fundamentalists, while 27 percent picked the modernizers. In a country in which the army will likely play a deciding role in selecting the next political leadership, just 32 percent believe in civilian control of the military. And a majority, 54 percent, support making segregation of men and women in the workplace the law throughout Egypt.

COMMENT:  That should give us pause.  The election of Hamas in the tiny Gaza Strip has created a regional mess.  Imagine if a group like Hamas gained power in Egypt, the most influential Arab country. 

We hope the grown-up journalists continue to give us background.  This is not a simple good vs. bad issue.  Egypt is a complex mechanism, in many respects a failed society whose greatness lies only in memory.  Can Egypt be brought into the modern world as a responsible, democratic state?  That is the question.  It is being ignored by too many in the exciting, blow-by-blow reporting of street protests.  But that question can involve human lives, some of them those of American soldiers.

February 1, 2011      Permalink 

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JORDANIAN KING DUMPS GOVERNMENT – AT 8:11 A.M. E:  It what is clearly a preemptive strike, King Abdullah of Jordan has dismissed his government and named a new prime minister, apparently in response to demonstrations.  The king reportedly has a TV and sees what's happening in Cairo:

AMMAN, Jordan (AP) — Jordan's Royal Palace says the king has sacked his government in the wake of street protests and has asked an ex-army general to form a new Cabinet.

King Abdullah's move comes after thousands of Jordanians took to the streets — inspired by the regime ouster in Tunisia and the turmoil in Egypt — and called for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai who is blamed for a rise in fuel and food prices and slowed political reforms.

The Royal Palace says Rifai's Cabinet resigned on Tuesday.

Abdullah also nominated Marouf al-Bakhit as his prime minister-designate. No other details were immediately available.

COMMENT:  Question:  Will this be seen by discontented citizens as progress, or a sign of weakness?  Remember that most Jordanian citizens are Palestinians.   They may have other agendas besides the normal gripes of people living in an authoritarian state. 

This story is just developing.

February 1, 2011     Permalink 

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"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
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      of The New York Times.

 

"Councils of war breed timidity and defeatism."
    - Lt. Gen. Arthur MacArthur, to his
      son, Douglas.

 

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E-Mail: katzlit@urgentagenda.com

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© 2011  William Katz 


 

 
 
 
 
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