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FEBRUARY 10, 2011 A LOSS FOR THE GOOD GUYS – AT 9:37 P.M. ET: Republican Senator John Kyl of Arizona, the second-ranking member of the Senate Republican leadership, announced today that he will not be standing for reelection next year. This is a major loss. Kyl is one of the best Republican leaders, and an attractive and reasonable man. He is especially strong on foreign policy, and I'm concerned that many of the new GOP members of the Senate and House are not. (Rand Paul comes to mind.) Arizona is, generally, a Republican state, and the current conventional wisdom is that Kyl's seat will remain in Republican hands. But Arizona can surprise us. The current secretary of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano, was governor of Arizona, and is a Democrat. I suspect the Democrats will contest the seat vigorously. February 10, 2011 Permalink
EGYPT UPDATE – AT 7:24 P.M. ET: President Obama, who was on a nothing trip to Michigan today, hurried back to Washington and huddled with his national security team. You can be sure that Item One on his agenda was the fact that, once again, we had bad intelligence information. A speech given by Mr. Obama earlier implied that Mubarak would be gone and joining AARP late in the day. It didn't happen, once again making the president look foolish. Oh, by the way, our heroic national intelligence director, James Clapper, who recently didn't know about a critical series of anti-terror arrests in Britain, appeared before a congressional committee today and announced that the Muslim Brotherhood was essentially a secular organization. That begs the question: Why is it called the Muslim Brotherhood? Within a few hours the administration, in a rare rebuke, corrected Clapper's whackiness in a statement issued, obviously under direction, by his own office:
I'm not so sure he's aware at all...of that or pretty much anything else.
In Egypt, public anger over Mubarak's failure to step down remains strong, with commentators looking toward tomorrow. As we've noted, that's the start of the Egyptian weekend, and it's prayer day. Some members of the regime, like the Egyptian ambassador to Washington, are seeking to soften the Mubarak non-resignation by saying that he really doesn't have any power left. The demonstrators aren't buying the line. February 10, 2011 Permalink A FUNNY THING HAPPENED TO HOSNI MUBARAK ON THE WAY TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT OFFICE – AT 4:25 P.M. ET: Apparently inspired by Jennifer Hudson, President Hosni Mubarak told Egypt today that he isn't going. He's staying. Yes, he's transferred some powers to his vice president, but there was no talk of resignation. The sound you hear is journalists and some U.S. government officials wiping the egg off their faces. They had all but assured us that Hosni had his bags packed. There was genuine shock when Mubarak, in a speech that wasn't exactly the Gettysburg Address, announced some procedural steps, but little more. So what happened? I don't know, but I have a theory, which I plainly label as speculation: I believe Mubarak intentionally floated the story to members of his government that he was resigning immediately, knowing these loyal worthies would leak it to the press. He knew that would be big news, and would be blasted all over the world. And then, when he didn't resign, journalists would look ridiculous, and lose credibility. Mubarak wanted to have the last laugh, and he's not in love with reporters. If my theory is correct, he must have a great sense of satisfaction. But the story isn't over. The protesters are plainly livid over Mubarak's refusal to do a Nixon, and step down. They'll be out in force tomorrow, the start of the Egyptian weekend, and prayer day. We make no predictions on what tomorrow in Egypt will look like. February 10, 2011 Permalink
BULLETIN: EGYPT IN TURMOIL – AT 1:34 P.M. – MOTHER OF MERCY, IS THIS THE END OF HOSNI MUBARAK? If you don't recognize that line, ask someone who knows Edward G. Robinson movies. The news networks are now all Egypt, all the time. President Mubarak is about to address Egypt, and there are reports, apparently authoritative, that he will step down immediately. Obviously, big stuff. We've been monitoring both Fox and CNN. Both are providing some good coverage, but CNN is still held back by the influence of Christiane Amanpour. Fox, for example, has presented the Israeli perspective on what's been happening, which is critical to the war-and-peace question that hovers over everything in the Mideast. CNN has no such perspective. Fox is also providing a careful examination of the Muslim Brotherhood, skeptical of attempts to whitewash the group. CNN is mixing more whitewash. Stand by. No one will know exactly what's happening until Mubarak speaks. We're waiting for the fat lady to sing, or at least the slightly chubby president of Egypt. February 10, 2011 Permalink
IS THIS GOOD NEWS? WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IN THE COMING MONTHS – AT 10:16 A.M. ET: From Fox News:
COMMENT: Clearly, if unemployment drops it will place Barack Obama in a far more favorable position for next year's presidential race. However, the drop in unemployment-benefit applications is far from dramatic, and millions of Americans remain underemployed, earning far less than they did before the downturn started. This is one of those "wait and see" situations. The real story will be told toward the end of this year, as we get serious about electing the next president. February 10, 2011 Permalink SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:11 A.M. ET:
Any suppression of the left is a move forward. February 10, 2011 Permalink
LOOKS LIKE DANIELS IS IN – AT 9:20 A.M. ET: Mitch Daniels is a terrific Republican governor of Indiana. Under his leadership, Indiana has become a success story. Contrast please with neighboring Illinois, which, as a state, could never get basic collision insurance. The Great Mentioner has mentioned Daniels as a possible presidential candidate for next year. Based on record alone, that makes sense, and Daniels clearly is interested. From The Politico:
And...
COMMENT: It is reported that Mitch's wife is strongly against his running. And there are other issues: He is barely known to the public outside Indiana, and he is, frankly, often a dull speaker. It could be, of course, that a plain-spoken, quiet man from the Midwest is just what the public wants, but Daniels will still have to show that he can appeal to a nation via television. I saw him speak publicly last year, and that's far from certain. By the way, the name being mentioned more and more is Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida, who is personable, intelligent, and has a fine record. The great drawback, of course, is his name. We don't like dynasties in America, and the Bush name isn't quite up there with Lincoln's. But Jeb Bush would, at least, bring excitement, which is lacking right now. Supposedly, the frontrunner at the moment, if there is one, is Mitt Romney, the very mention of whom cures all insomnia. In fact, in typing his name I just fell asleep over my computer, awakened only by the overwhelming rush of subliminal conscience. But do watch Daniels. He'd be a terrific president, if he can get there. February 10, 2011 Permalink
EGYPT UPDATE – AT 8:53 A.M. ET: After a few calming days, the Egyptian situation has become chaotic and confusing once more. The Mubarak government is holding on, possibly even strengthening its position, as strikes and demonstrations start to spread again. It was widely reported that Saudi Arabia has warned the United States against throwing Mubarak under the bus that's parked outside the White House – an extension bus by now – and has reportedly said that it would make up any foreign aid that the U.S. cuts from Egypt. While the Saudi regime is pretty despicable, stability in Saudi Arabia is critical to the world's oil supply and energy prices. From The New York Times:
COMMENT: We didn't have a clear route for how this will end on the first day of the demonstrations, and we don't have a clear route now. The U.S. has stepped up its public demands for the regime to bend to the will of "the people," whoever the people are, but American influence seems minimal, now that the Saudis have pledged to write the foreign-aid checks if we won't. Also, Mr. Obama doesn't exactly project strength and determination, and there is a price to be paid. February 10, 2011 Permalink CONSERVATIVES GATHER - WATCH YOUR BACK – AT 8:36 A.M. ET: A big conservative to-do starts today, and presidential wannabes are testing the waters. But, behind the scenes, the conservative movement is showing the strain of dissent. From WaPo:
COMMENT: Frankly, it's a bit of a mess, and not very attractive. Sarah Palin isn't attending the conference, and said on radio that she's troubled by the boycotters. There is no mention of foreign policy in the preview, which is baffling. These are movement conservatives, and they have enormous influence, but cannot, by themselves, win a national election. How they maneuver may well determine the Republican presidential fate in 2012. February 10, 2011 Permalink
FEBRUARY 9, 2011 TERROR THREAT AT VERY HIGH LEVEL – AT 7:12 P.M. ET: Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano warned Congress today of an elevated terror threat. In her testimony she used the word "terror" more than 60 times, in contrast to her first appearance as secretary of her department two years ago, when she refused to use the term at all. From ABC News:
COMMENT: Janet might have a chat with the president of the United States, who lives in a white house on Pennsylvania Avenue. She might tell him that endorsing a role for the Muslim Brotherhood in the Egyptian government does not exactly discourage Islamic terrorists, many of whom are inspired by that same organization. Never mind. He won't listen. February 9, 2011 Permalink OH, ANOTHER JERK, AND THIS ONE'S OURS – AT 6:30 P.M. ET: From The New York Times:
COMMENT: Look, it's New York. He'll probably get a talk show and a book contract. But for the rest of us, it's embarrassing. Oh, you know, I just thought of something: I wonder if this story will be covered on Parker/Spitzer at CNN tonight. Eliot Spitzer, the co-host, was governor of New York, and, as you no doubt recall, had to resign in a prostitution scandal. I'd love to see how he covers, or uncovers, this. February 9, 2011 Permalink POLITICAL JOLT – AT 6:16 P.M. ET: Democratic Senator James Webb of Virginia has announced that he will not run for reelection in 2012, leaving the Senate after one term. Webb's announcement further weakens the shrinking bloc of moderate Dems in the Senate. The Webb withdrawal may open the way for a return to the Senate of Republican former Senator (and Governor) George Allen, whom Webb defeated in 2006 after Allen uttered what was hyped by some as a vague racial slur. The incident was wildly exaggerated, but the Washington Post used it against Allen to severe effect. Before his defeat, Allen was considered a possible GOP presidential candidate. Allen, though, faces competition for the Republican nomination from a Tea Party candidate, Jamie Radtke. Reader Bruce Goldman alerted us to that candidate's new website, just announced: And whoever wins the GOP nod won't have a clear run. Former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine, who retains considerable popularity in Virginia, may well run for Webb's seat. However, Kaine is the Democratic national chairman, and is close to President Obama, which may drag him down in the state he once governed. Stay tuned. February 9, 2011 Permalink
ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD DIDN'T HELP – AT 11:25 A.M. ET: This is what happens when a state adopts liberal orthodoxy and believes that throwing money at a problem is all that's needed. From The New York Times:
COMMENT: The New York City school system used to be the envy of cities throughout the nation. It educated generations of immigrant children. Well-prepared teachers, many of them Irish (I had Miss Malone and Miss Mayer, among others) taught students of every background. When you addressed a teacher, you stood up at your desk. If you damaged a book, you paid for it. You went to assembly once a week and sang patriotic songs. We didn't need metal detectors. New York spends a fortune on education, and gets too little for it. Of course, part of the problem is political correctness. Few politicians are brave enough to point out that good schools are built by good families, which in turn are built by good cultures and high standards. Today we're told we must "respect" other cultures, even those that do immense harm to their own children. ("Who are we to judge?" Heard that one?) New York's experience is a warning, but one that probably won't be heeded until there is generational change, and the sixties crowd, now in charge of too much, passes from the scene or goes into retirement in a carbon-free forest. February 9, 2011 Permalink SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:
Given her rendition, the minor leagues are just about right. Not only did she botch a line, she botched the entire melody. It's our national anthem, not a pop tune. February 9, 2011 Permalink OH DEAR, OH DEAR, WHY MUST WE BOTHER WITH ALL THESE NUMBERS? – AT 9:16 A.M. ET: A new Gallup poll has bad news for the president's handling of the federal budget deficit. The results come just before Mr. Obama's new budget is released:
COMMENT: Ah, please note the mention of health-care policy. Unless there's a full-blown foreign crisis, domestic issues will dominate the upcoming presidential election. Republicans have a golden opportunity...if they can get their act together, come up with a new and popular health-care reform plan, and enact some serious spending cuts. We should begin to see Republican tactics at work in the coming weeks, as funding legislation makes its way through Congress. All funding bills must originate, Constitutionally, in the House, where the GOP now has a commanding majority. But there have been signs of fissures in the Republican Party, which will be a test for Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader Cantor. It will also be a test of the maturity of the Tea Party members, who, if they go off in their own direction, can wreck the gains of the November election. February 9, 2011 Permalink
RAHM ROMPS – AT 9:04 A.M. ET: Rahm Emanuel seems headed for a huge victory in the Chicago mayoralty race, without having to go through the inconvenience of a runoff. The Politico reports:
COMMENT: As we've noted before, this is an important race because the mayor of Chicago has substantial state and national political clout. Emanuel was almost thrown off the ballot because of a residency question, and has overcome an ugly racial challenge from "leaders" of Chicago's black community. If he wins, the next stop on the line will be governor. February 9, 2011 Permalink OH REALLY? – AT 8:27 A.M. ET: The Muslim Brotherhood has just issued a statement in Egypt:
COMMENT: If you believe this, I have a used car to sell you. It's a very fine car. Wonderful transmission. Smooth ride, once we get it off the wood blocks. You can't go wrong. Best offer accepted. This looks like the kind of statement issued to deflect attention, and nothing more. One of the senior members of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood said just last week that Egyptians should prepare for war with Israel. For a group like the Muslim Brotherhood to say that it's not seeking power has about as much credibility as Barack Hussein Obama Jr. saying that he idolizes Ronald Reagan. But, of course, the usual suspects in the Western press – Christiane Amanpour and all the little Pours – will seize on this statement to prove that the Brotherhood is just another political party, not to be feared. And don't take that man with the little mustache and the armband seriously. That same Ronald Reagan said it best: "Trust, but verify." I can't even get to the "trust" with this one. February 9, 2011 Permalink
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