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FEBRUARY 10,  2011

A LOSS FOR THE GOOD GUYS – AT 9:37 P.M. ET:  Republican Senator John Kyl of Arizona, the second-ranking member of the Senate Republican leadership, announced today that he will not be standing for reelection next year. 

This is a major loss.  Kyl is one of the best Republican leaders, and an attractive and reasonable man.  He is especially strong on foreign policy, and I'm concerned that many of the new GOP members of the Senate and House are not.  (Rand Paul comes to mind.) 

Arizona is, generally, a Republican state, and the current conventional wisdom is that Kyl's seat will remain in Republican hands.  But Arizona can surprise us.  The current secretary of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano, was governor of Arizona, and is a Democrat.  I suspect the Democrats will contest the seat vigorously.

February 10, 2011      Permalink

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EGYPT UPDATE – AT 7:24 P.M. ET:  President Obama, who was on a nothing trip to Michigan today, hurried back to Washington and huddled with his national security team.

You can be sure that Item One on his agenda was the fact that, once again, we had bad intelligence information.  A speech given by Mr. Obama earlier implied that Mubarak would be gone and joining AARP late in the day.  It didn't happen, once again making the president look foolish.

Oh, by the way, our heroic national intelligence director, James Clapper, who recently didn't know about a critical series of anti-terror arrests in Britain, appeared before a congressional committee today and announced that the Muslim Brotherhood was essentially a secular organization.  That begs the question:  Why is it called the Muslim Brotherhood?

Within a few hours the administration, in a rare rebuke, corrected Clapper's whackiness in a statement issued, obviously under direction, by his own office:

"To clarify Director Clapper's point, in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood makes efforts to work through a political system that has been, under Mubarak's rule, one that is largely secular in its orientation. He is well aware that the Muslim Brotherhood is not a secular organization," DNI spokesperson Jamie Smith said.

I'm not so sure he's aware at all...of that or pretty much anything else. 

"They're as secular as Billy Graham and the pope are secular," former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said.

In Egypt, public anger over Mubarak's failure to step down remains strong, with commentators looking toward tomorrow.  As we've noted, that's the start of the Egyptian weekend, and it's prayer day.

Some members of the regime, like the Egyptian ambassador to Washington, are seeking to soften the Mubarak non-resignation by saying that he really doesn't have any power left.  The demonstrators aren't buying the line. 

February 10, 2011       Permalink

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A FUNNY THING HAPPENED TO HOSNI MUBARAK ON THE WAY TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT OFFICE – AT 4:25 P.M. ET: 

Apparently inspired by Jennifer Hudson, President Hosni Mubarak told Egypt today that he isn't going.  He's staying.  Yes, he's transferred some powers to his vice president, but there was no talk of resignation.

The sound you hear is journalists and some U.S. government officials wiping the egg off their faces.  They had all but assured us that Hosni had his bags packed.  There was genuine shock when Mubarak, in a speech that wasn't exactly the Gettysburg Address, announced some procedural steps, but little more.

So what happened?  I don't know, but I have a theory, which I plainly label as speculation:  I believe Mubarak intentionally floated the story to members of his government that he was resigning immediately, knowing these loyal worthies would leak it to the press.  He knew that would be big news, and would be blasted all over the world.  And then, when he didn't resign, journalists would look ridiculous, and lose credibility.  Mubarak wanted to have the last laugh, and he's not in love with reporters.  If my theory is correct, he must have a great sense of satisfaction.

But the story isn't over.  The protesters are plainly livid over Mubarak's refusal to do a Nixon, and step down.  They'll be out in force tomorrow, the start of the Egyptian weekend, and prayer day.  We make no predictions on what tomorrow in Egypt will look like.

February 10, 2011     Permalink

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BULLETIN:  EGYPT IN TURMOIL – AT 1:34 P.M. – MOTHER OF MERCY, IS THIS THE END OF HOSNI MUBARAK?

If you don't recognize that line, ask someone who knows Edward G. Robinson movies.

The news networks are now all Egypt, all the time.   President Mubarak is about to address Egypt, and there are reports, apparently authoritative, that he will step down immediately.  Obviously, big stuff.

We've been monitoring both Fox and CNN.  Both are providing some good coverage, but CNN is still held back by the influence of Christiane Amanpour.  Fox, for example, has presented the Israeli perspective on what's been happening, which is critical to the war-and-peace question that hovers over everything in the Mideast.  CNN has no such perspective.  Fox is also providing a careful examination of the Muslim Brotherhood, skeptical of attempts to whitewash the group.  CNN is mixing more whitewash.

Stand by.  No one will know exactly what's happening until Mubarak speaks.   We're waiting for the fat lady to sing, or at least the slightly chubby president of Egypt.

February 10, 2011     Permalink

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IS THIS GOOD NEWS?  WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IN THE COMING MONTHS – AT 10:16 A.M. ET:   From Fox News:

WASHINGTON -- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in nearly three years, boosting hopes that companies will step up hiring this year as the economy strengthens.

Applications sank by a seasonally adjusted 36,000 to 383,000, the lowest point since early July 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Unemployment applications reflect the level of layoffs, but also can indicate whether companies are willing to hire.

Applications are well below their peak of 651,000, reached in March 2009, when the economy was deep in recession. Applications below 425,000 tend to signal modest job growth. But they would need to dip consistently to 375,000 or below to indicate a significant and steady decline in the unemployment rate.
Last week's sharp decline continues a downward trend that took shape late last year. The last time applications fell below 400,000 was near the end of December.

Harsh winter snowstorms along in the Southeast forced some companies to temporarily lay off workers last month. That sent applications surging to 457,000 in the week of Jan. 22. But since then applications have been falling.

The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dipped to 415,500 last week. That's slightly above the two-year low of 411,250, reached in the week ending Jan. 1.

COMMENT:  Clearly, if unemployment drops it will place Barack Obama in a far more favorable position for next year's presidential race.  However, the drop in unemployment-benefit applications is far from dramatic, and millions of Americans remain underemployed, earning far less than they did before the downturn started. 

This is one of those "wait and see" situations.  The real story will be told toward the end of this year, as we get serious about electing the next president.

February 10, 2011      Permalink

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SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:11 A.M. ET:

From Britain's Sun:  SCIENTISTS have created a real-life thinking cap which works by zapping electricity through the brain.  The weird-looking headwear has had extraordinary results and experts believe it could help people be more creative.  The device was dreamt up by the University of Sydney's Centre for the Mind in Australia and suppresses the left side of the brain to encourage the more creative right side into action.

Any suppression of the left is a move forward.

February 10, 2011       Permalink

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LOOKS LIKE DANIELS IS IN – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  Mitch Daniels is a terrific Republican governor of Indiana.  Under his leadership, Indiana has become a success story.  Contrast please with neighboring Illinois, which, as a state, could never get basic collision insurance.

The Great Mentioner has mentioned Daniels as a possible presidential candidate for next year.  Based on record alone, that makes sense, and Daniels clearly is interested.  From The Politico:

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels boasts that he would turn heads with his fundraising firepower and roster of big- name GOP supporters if he jumps into the 2012 presidential race.

“If I were to decide to do this, we would have an unbelievable letterhead,” Daniels predicted in a POLITICO interview Wednesday, lighting up as the hour-long conversation turned to why he could win.

“I don’t know if we’d raise the most, but for whatever reason there are an awful lot of people standing by who I think know how to do this a lot better than I do,” he said, noting that he’s being pushed to run by an array of business types and political figures.

Daniels suggested three things could keep him from plunging in: his wife’s concerns, the calculation that his party or the country aren’t ready for his tough-love message or the emergence of another capable candidate.

And...

He wouldn’t say it, but those who have spoken to him indicate Daniels doesn’t see anyone in the current GOP field focused on the fiscal issues that motivate him. If such a person doesn’t emerge – and Daniels said he’ll announce his decision “no later” than May and potentially in April — the chances of him running will increase. Daniels recounted that his close friend Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour indicated during a conversation a few weeks ago at the Alfalfa Dinner in Washington that he was seriously considering a presidential run. But Daniels declined to say if the presence of Barbour in the field would dissuade him from mounting his own bid.

COMMENT:  It is reported that Mitch's wife is strongly against his running.  And there are other issues:  He is barely known to the public outside Indiana, and he is, frankly, often a dull speaker. 

It could be, of course, that a plain-spoken, quiet man from the Midwest is just what the public wants, but Daniels will still have to show that he can appeal to a nation via television.  I saw him speak publicly last year, and that's far from certain.

By the way, the name being mentioned more and more is Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida, who is personable, intelligent, and has a fine record.  The great drawback, of course, is his name.  We don't like dynasties in America, and the Bush name isn't quite up there with Lincoln's.  But Jeb Bush would, at least, bring excitement, which is lacking right now.

Supposedly, the frontrunner at the moment, if there is one, is Mitt Romney, the very mention of whom cures all insomnia.  In fact, in typing his name I just fell asleep over my computer, awakened only by the overwhelming rush of subliminal conscience. 

But do watch Daniels.  He'd be a terrific president, if he can get there.

February 10, 2011     Permalink

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EGYPT UPDATE – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  After a few calming days, the Egyptian situation has become chaotic and confusing once more.  The Mubarak government is holding on, possibly even strengthening its position, as strikes and demonstrations start to spread again.

It was widely reported that Saudi Arabia has warned the United States against throwing Mubarak under the bus that's parked outside the White House – an extension bus by now – and has reportedly said that it would make up any foreign aid that the U.S. cuts from Egypt.  While the Saudi regime is pretty despicable, stability in Saudi Arabia is critical to the world's oil supply and energy prices.  From The New York Times:

CAIRO — As Egypt’s uprising entered its 17th day on Thursday, bolstered by strikes and protests among professional groups in Cairo and workers across the country, a senior official in President Hosni Mubarak’s embattled government was quoted as saying the army would “intervene to control the country” if it fell into chaos.

Among the latest to join the protests, thousands of chanting lawyers in black robes and physicians in white laboratory coats marched into Tahrir Square — the epicenter of the uprising — to join the clamor for Mr. Mubarak’s ouster.

Engineers and journalists also headed for the square on Thursday as the numbers there began to swell once again into their thousands, with demonstrators mingling among the tents and graffiti-sprayed army tanks that have taken on an air of semi-permanence.

The warning by Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit seemed to add a further ominous tone to earlier comments by the newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman who said the alternatives facing tens of thousands of demonstrators demanding Mr. Mubarak’s ouster were dialogue with the authorities or “a coup.”

COMMENT:  We didn't have a clear route for how this will end on the first day of the demonstrations, and we don't have a clear route now.

The U.S. has stepped up its public demands for the regime to bend to the will of "the people," whoever the people are, but American influence seems minimal, now that the Saudis have pledged to write the foreign-aid checks if we won't.  Also, Mr. Obama doesn't exactly project strength and determination, and there is a price to be paid.

February 10, 2011       Permalink

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CONSERVATIVES GATHER - WATCH YOUR BACK – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  A big conservative to-do starts today, and presidential wannabes are testing the waters.  But, behind the scenes, the conservative movement is showing the strain of dissent.  From WaPo:

A wide field of Republican potential presidential hopefuls will descend on Washington on Thursday for the conservative movement's biggest annual party, where they will navigate the tussle for attention between social conservatives and newly empowered tea party activists.

A year out from the Iowa caucuses, the 2011 Conservative Political Action Conference is widely viewed, as it is every four years, as a forum for presidential message-testing.

This year, following the growth of the tea party movement and the huge gains Republicans made last year by focusing almost exclusively on economic issues, would-be candidates almost certainly will try to prove their credentials as fiscal conservatives who are ready to cut government and taxes, reduce the deficit and ease the burden of regulations on free enterprise...

...But possible 2012 contenders will be tested on social issues, too. About half a dozen interest groups dedicated to such issues as banning abortion and same-sex marriage are boycotting CPAC's three days of speeches, panel discussions and sales of conservative-themed tchotchkes because of the participation of GOProud, an organization that supports fiscal conservatism as well as gay rights.

COMMENT:  Frankly, it's a bit of a mess, and not very attractive.  Sarah Palin isn't attending the conference, and said on radio that she's troubled by the boycotters. 

There is no mention of foreign policy in the preview, which is baffling. 

These are movement conservatives, and they have enormous influence, but cannot, by themselves, win a national election.  How they maneuver may well determine the Republican presidential fate in 2012.

February 10, 2011     Permalink

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FEBRUARY 9,  2011

TERROR THREAT AT VERY HIGH LEVEL – AT 7:12 P.M. ET:  Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano warned Congress today of an elevated terror threat.  In her testimony she used the word "terror" more than 60 times, in contrast to her first appearance as secretary of her department two years ago, when she refused to use the term at all.  From ABC News: 

The threat of terrorism is at "its most heightened state" since the 9/11 attacks nearly a decade ago, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said today.

"The terrorist threat facing our country has evolved significantly in the last ten years -- and continues to evolve -- so that, in some ways, the threat facing us is at its most heightened state since those attacks," she said before the House Homeland Security Committee.

Her comments were a sobering reminder that the potential of another attack is real and growing, most notably from individuals radicalized inside the United States, despite elaborate security measures implemented by the government since 2001.

"One of the most striking elements of today's threat picture is that plots to attack America increasingly involve American residents and citizens," Napolitano said, referring to so-called homegrown terrorists fueled by the Internet and connections with operatives overseas.

More than two dozen Americans have been arrested on terrorism charges in the past two years, according to government statistics.

Fifty individuals involved in 32 high-profile terrorism plots involving al Qaeda-like ideology in the past decade were U.S. citizens at the time of their arrests, according to a study by the New York State Intelligence Center. Most were natural-born.

COMMENT:  Janet might have a chat with the president of the United States, who lives in a white house on Pennsylvania Avenue.  She might tell him that endorsing a role for the Muslim Brotherhood in the Egyptian government does not exactly discourage Islamic terrorists, many of whom are inspired by that same organization. 

Never mind.  He won't listen.

February 9, 2011       Permalink

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OH, ANOTHER JERK, AND THIS ONE'S OURS – AT 6:30 P.M. ET:  From The New York Times:

Representative Chris Lee of New York, caught in the midst of a scandal involving a shirtless photo he reportedly sent to a woman on the Internet, has stepped down, according to a senior Congressional official.

Mr. Lee, a Republican, notified the Republican Speaker of the House of his decision in a letter he sent this afternoon after the scandal erupted.

Mr. Lee’s office released a statement late Wednesday in which the he asks for forgiveness. “I regret the harm that my actions have caused my family, my staff and my constituents,’’ he said. “I deeply and sincerely apologize to them all. I have made profound mistakes and I promise to work as hard as I can to seek their forgiveness.’’

Mr. Lee won his district, located in the western New York region, in 2008, when he ran in place of Thomas Reynolds, who announced his retirement.

COMMENT:  Look, it's New York.  He'll probably get a talk show and a book contract.  But for the rest of us, it's embarrassing.

Oh, you know, I just thought of something:  I wonder if this story will be covered on Parker/Spitzer at CNN tonight.  Eliot Spitzer, the co-host, was governor of New York, and, as you no doubt recall, had to resign in a prostitution scandal.  I'd love to see how he covers, or uncovers, this.

February 9, 2011      Permalink

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POLITICAL JOLT – AT 6:16 P.M. ET:  Democratic Senator James Webb of Virginia has announced that he will not run for reelection in 2012, leaving the Senate after one term.  Webb's announcement further weakens the shrinking bloc of moderate Dems in the Senate.

The Webb withdrawal may open the way for a return to the Senate of Republican former Senator (and Governor) George Allen, whom Webb defeated in 2006 after Allen uttered what was hyped by some as a vague racial slur.  The incident was wildly exaggerated, but the Washington Post used it against Allen to severe effect.  Before his defeat, Allen was considered a possible GOP presidential candidate.

Allen, though, faces competition for the Republican nomination from a Tea Party candidate, Jamie Radtke.  Reader Bruce Goldman alerted us to that candidate's new website, just announced:

http://radtkeforsenate.com/

And whoever wins the GOP nod won't have a clear run.  Former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine, who retains considerable popularity in Virginia, may well run for Webb's seat.  However, Kaine is the Democratic national chairman, and is close to President Obama, which may drag him down in the state he once governed.

Stay tuned. 

February 9, 2011      Permalink

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ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD DIDN'T HELP – AT 11:25 A.M. ET:   This is what happens when a state adopts liberal orthodoxy and believes that throwing money at a problem is all that's needed.  From The New York Times:

New York State education officials released a new set of graduation statistics on Monday that show less than half of students in the state are leaving high school prepared for college and well-paying careers.

The new statistics, part of a push to realign state standards with college performance, show that only 23 percent of students in New York City graduated ready for college or careers in 2009, not counting special-education students. That is well under half the current graduation rate of 64 percent, a number often promoted by Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg as evidence that his education policies are working.

But New York City is still doing better than the state’s other large urban districts. In Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Yonkers, less than 17 percent of students met the proposed standards, including just 5 percent in Rochester.

The Board of Regents, which sets the state’s education policies, met on Monday to begin discussing what to do with this data, and will most likely issue a decision in March. One option is to make schools and districts place an asterisk next to the current graduation rate, or have them report both the current graduation rate and the college ready rate, said Merryl H. Tisch, the chancellor of the Board of Regents.

COMMENT:  The New York City school system used to be the envy of cities throughout the nation.  It educated generations of immigrant children.  Well-prepared teachers, many of them Irish (I had Miss Malone and Miss Mayer, among others) taught students of every background.  When you addressed a teacher, you stood up at your desk.  If you damaged a book, you paid for it.  You went to assembly once a week and sang patriotic songs.  We didn't need metal detectors.

New York spends a fortune on education, and gets too little for it.  Of course, part of the problem is political correctness.  Few politicians are brave enough to point out that good schools are built by good families, which in turn are built by good cultures and high standards.  Today we're told we must "respect" other cultures, even those that do immense harm to their own children.  ("Who are we to judge?"  Heard that one?) 

New York's experience is a warning, but one that probably won't be heeded until there is generational change, and the sixties crowd, now in charge of too much, passes from the scene or goes into retirement in a carbon-free forest.

February 9, 2011       Permalink

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SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:

From the New York Post:  Christina Aguilera has been invited to sing a do-over.  The Brooklyn Cyclones are offering the Staten Island native a chance to perform “The Star-Spangled Banner” before one of the minor league baseball team’s home games this summer.  Aguilera botched one of the lines of the national anthem before Sunday’s Super Bowl in Arlington, Texas.  The Mets’ Class A farm team extended the invitation Tuesday.

Given her rendition, the minor leagues are just about right.  Not only did she botch a line, she botched the entire melody.  It's our national anthem, not a pop tune.

February 9, 2011      Permalink

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OH DEAR, OH DEAR, WHY MUST WE BOTHER WITH ALL THESE NUMBERS? – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  A new Gallup poll has bad news for the president's handling of the federal budget deficit.  The results come just before Mr. Obama's new budget is released:

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama's approval rating for handling the federal budget deficit has gone from bad to worse in recent months, even as his ratings on all other major national issues have generally held steady. Currently, 27% of Americans approve of Obama on the deficit, down from 32% in November, while 68% disapprove.

Overall, Obama is doing much better on international issues than domestic ones. Among eight issues on which Obama was rated in the new poll, Americans give the president the highest approval ratings on foreign affairs and the situations in Egypt and Afghanistan. The deficit, the economy, and taxes rank among his lowest ratings, alongside health-care policy.

COMMENT:  Ah, please note the mention of health-care policy.  Unless there's a full-blown foreign crisis, domestic issues will dominate the upcoming presidential election.  Republicans have a golden opportunity...if they can get their act together, come up with a new and popular health-care reform plan, and enact some serious spending cuts. 

We should begin to see Republican tactics at work in the coming weeks, as funding legislation makes its way through Congress.  All funding bills must originate, Constitutionally, in the House, where the GOP now has a commanding majority.  But there have been signs of fissures in the Republican Party, which will be a test for Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader Cantor.  It will also be a test of the maturity of the Tea Party members, who, if they go off in their own direction, can wreck the gains of the November election. 

February 9, 2011      Permalink

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RAHM ROMPS – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  Rahm Emanuel seems headed for a huge victory in the Chicago mayoralty race, without having to go through the inconvenience of a runoff.  The Politico reports:

Rahm Emanuel is headed toward victory in the race for Chicago mayor, a new poll of the city’s likely voters suggests.

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, 54 percent of voters surveyed by Chicago’s ABC affiliate WLS-TV said they plan to vote for the former White House chief of staff — almost four times the percentage of respondents who said they would support his closest competitor. If he is able to capture more than 50 percent of the vote in the Feb. 22 general election, Emanuel would avoid a runoff and replace Richard M. Daley as mayor.

COMMENT:  As we've noted before, this is an important race because the mayor of Chicago has substantial state and national political clout.  Emanuel was almost thrown off the ballot because of a residency question, and has overcome an ugly racial challenge from "leaders" of Chicago's black community.  If he wins, the next stop on the line will be governor.

February 9, 2011      Permalink

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OH REALLY? – AT 8:27 A.M. ET:  The Muslim Brotherhood has just issued a statement in Egypt:

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- The Muslim Brotherhood said Wednesday it will promote democracy in Egypt but does not intend to field a candidate for president.

"The Muslim Brotherhood are not seeking power," Mohammed Morsi, a member of the group's media office, said at a news conference. "We want to participate, not to dominate. We will not have a presidential candidate, we want to participate and help, we are not seeking power."

The Islamist umbrella group also sought to dispel fears that it would push for an Islamic state in a post-Hosni Mubarak era.

"We reject the religious state," said Mohammed Katatny, former head of the Muslim Brotherhood's parliamentary bloc. "We are not responsible of the speeches and statements of external forces. The regime have been using the Muslim Brotherhood scarecrow to tell the world that the regime is the only one who can safeguard the country, but this is wrong and it is their way to try to ignore the people's demands."

COMMENT:  If you believe this, I have a used car to sell you.  It's a very fine car.  Wonderful transmission.  Smooth ride, once we get it off the wood blocks.  You can't go wrong.  Best offer accepted.

This looks like the kind of statement issued to deflect attention, and nothing more.  One of the senior members of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood said just last week that Egyptians should prepare for war with Israel. 

For a group like the Muslim Brotherhood to say that it's not seeking power has about as much credibility as Barack Hussein Obama Jr. saying that he idolizes Ronald Reagan.  But, of course, the usual suspects in the Western press – Christiane Amanpour and all the little Pours – will seize on this statement to prove that the Brotherhood is just another political party, not to be feared.

And don't take that man with the little mustache and the armband seriously.

That same Ronald Reagan said it best:  "Trust, but verify."  I can't even get to the "trust" with this one.

February 9, 2011     Permalink

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"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
    - Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
      of The New York Times.

 

"Councils of war breed timidity and defeatism."
    - Lt. Gen. Arthur MacArthur, to his
      son, Douglas.

 

THE ANGEL'S CORNER

Part I of The Angel's Corner was sent late last night.

Part II will be sent late Friday night.

 

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  "The left needs two things to survive. It needs mediocrity, and it needs dependence. It nurtures mediocrity in the public schools and the universities. It nurtures dependence through its empire of government programs. A nation that embraces mediocrity and dependence betrays itself, and can only fade away, wondering all the time what might have been."
     - Urgent Agenda

 

 

 

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