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FEBRUARY 11,  2011

OBAMA SPEAKS – AT 3:39 P.M. ET:  President Obama has made his formal statement about the transition in Egypt.

Obama has been largely a bystander, his international influence fairly minimal.  His speech was pretty much what one would have expected – democracy is great, we're witnessing history, we congratulate the Egyptian people, and, oh, let's throw in a quote from Martin Luther King Jr.

There was, sadly, no request that the Egyptian-Israel peace treaty be completely honored.  That is one of the building blocks of American policy in the Mideast, and we are a guarantor of the treaty.  If it breaks down, it will be U.S. troops involved.

Other than that, one can't really complain about Obama's speech, which contained his usual soaring rhetoric.  The problem, though, is this:  When Obama speaks, you just don't feel he means it.  His speeches are constructed, not felt.  Contrast please with Ronald Reagan.  Because Reagan had a real, and substantial, political history, we knew where he stood.  When he spoke, he meant it, and we sensed it.  Today, we felt the hollowness.

Indeed, I wish Obama had spoken in such a soaring manner when Iranians were in the streets, their revolution crushed as Obama stood by, showing little interest.  Many commentators will, no doubt, point out the difference between Obama-Cairo and Obama-Tehran.

Now, in Egypt, the hard part begins.  The outcome, which we hope will be great, is quite uncertain.

February 11, 2011      Permalink

EGYPT, CONTINUING – AT 12:16 P.M. ET:  President Obama has now scheduled a speech about Egypt for early this afternoon.  Can you just sense the anticipation?

All the world is waiting for Obama's wisdom, based on his years as a community organizer and a toddler in Indonesia.  Given the fact that he's botched just about everything about this crisis, we can't wait for the latest round. 

We hope the president doesn't invite the Muslim Brotherhood to join the Egyptian government. 

We note that Hillary Clinton seems to have disappeared.  She always disappears when things get embarrassing.  Expect to see her face on a milk carton at your favorite convenience store.

Meanwhile, wiser heads are cautioning that today's resignation by Hosni Mubarak is only a beginning.  No elections have been held or even scheduled.  Fortunately, the army, a respected, stable force, is in power.  Christiane Amanpour has not been crowned queen, despite the obvious yearning.

Key question:  Will this spread to other Arab countries?  That's very important for our own foreign interests, but don't ask American intelligence officials.  One said yesterday that the Muslim Brotherhood was secular, and another said that he got his news about Mubarak's intentions from TV.  I will sleep soundly tonight only with pills.

February 11, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN:  AT 11:03 A.M. ET:  Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has just announced that Hosni Mubarak has stepped down as president, yielding power to the armed forces. 

There is celebrating in the streets of Cairo, but we wonder whether this will be enough to satisfy the protesters.  The army retains power.

February 11, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN:  AT 10:01 A.M. ET:  It has just been reported that Hosni Mubarak is about to make another statement to the Egyptian people.  Please stand by.  We're monitoring.

Maybe he'll announce that he's abdicating because he cannot be away from the woman he loves.  (Don't take that line seriously.)

Standing by.

February 11, 2011      Permalink 

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:49 A.M. ET:

From The Politico:  Oprah called on President Obama's critics on Friday to “show some level of respect.”...  "I feel that everybody has a learning curve, and I feel that the reason why I was willing to step out for him was because I believed in his integrity and I believed in his heart," the influential TV host said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” in Chicago.

Oh, please.  I'm sure we all recall Oprah asking Americans to "show some level of respect" for President Bush, when he was called a fascist and a warmongering liar.  I guess I must've missed that show.

February 11, 2011      Permalink 

TOURISM NEWS – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  Former U.S. ambassador to Egypt Dan Kurtzer, appearing on CNN, has confirmed that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has fled Cairo and is now in Sharem a-Sheikh (often spelled Sharm el-Sheikh.) 

Kurtzer reports that Mubarak has checked into a hotel, where he often stays.  Sharm is a well-known Egyptian resort, and often the scene of international conferences.  We understand the hotel has fine food, a decent gym, and colossal room service.  The beds are too soft, though. 

Please note that Sharm is southeast of Cairo, near the Red Sea.  It is a very close flying distance to Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.  The Saudis are particularly close to Mubarak, and the Saudi king is a personal friend. 

At the same time, The New York Times is reporting the impression – and we have to be careful about going too far, considering the way we were misled yesterday – but the impression that there is a transfer of power to the army underway.  That is tentative.

February 11, 2011      Permalink

AS THE BRITS SAY, A BIT OF BOTHER – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  One aspect of the debate over Obamacare is the issue of its effect on American jobs.  Apparently, the pitcher is less than half full.  Maybe less than half full.  Maybe almost empty.  From the Daily Caller:

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Doug Elmendorf confirmed Thursday during a House Budget Committee hearing that President Barack Obama’s health care law will reduce the workforce by 800,000 by 2021 because some individuals will no longer have to work just so they can afford health insurance, Politico reported Thursday.

“[I]t’s been argued…that the new health care law will create jobs and increase labor force participation,” said House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. “But if I recall from your analysis, it was quite the opposite. Is that not the case?”

“Yes,” replied Elmendorf.

Elmendorf agreed with Republican California Rep. John Campbell’s claim that the health care law would reduce employment by 800,000.

COMMENT:  But remember, those idle 800,000 can get jobs as demonstrators in Cairo, since the demonstrations will probably still be going on in 2021.  In the Mideast, things happen slowly.

February 11, 2011      Permalink

EGYPT – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:  The crowds are massing in Egypt.  It's Friday, the start of the weekend, and a big prayer day.  In the Arab world, people on Friday gather in mosques to hear the peaceful words of the Prophet, then go out and smash things.  Who are we to judge?

At the same time, Fox and other outlets are reporting that Hosni Mubarak has left Cairo:

As protesters fill Tahrir Square in another day of demonstrations, an Israeli military intelligence official told Fox News that President Mubarak has left Cairo via helicopter, and was headed to his residence in Sharem a-Sheikh, a resort town in Egypt.

This comes a day after the embattled leader told protesters he planned to stay in office until the country’s upcoming elections in September.

Many opponents have made it clear that they want Mubarak and his authoritarian regime to step down immediately.

The statement by the Armed Forces Supreme Council -- its second in two days -- was a blow to many protesters who had called on the military to take action to push out Mubarak after his latest refusal to step down, reported the AP.

But soldiers also took no action to stop demonstrators from massing outside the palace and the headquarters of state television, indicating they were trying to avoid another outbreak of violence.

COMMENT:  It is logical for Mubarak to have left Cairo, where he could easily be trapped by crowds.  We wonder whether his trip to the summer house may be brief – just long enough to pick up the sunglasses and digital camera – and is the first leg of a longer journey to, say, Saudi Arabia. 

We'll be monitoring all day, maybe with a little more caution than yesterday, when we were royally misled by "authoritative" reports that Mubarak was ready to resign.

February 11, 2011     Permalink

FEBRUARY 10,  2011

A LOSS FOR THE GOOD GUYS – AT 9:37 P.M. ET:  Republican Senator John Kyl of Arizona, the second-ranking member of the Senate Republican leadership, announced today that he will not be standing for reelection next year. 

This is a major loss.  Kyl is one of the best Republican leaders, and an attractive and reasonable man.  He is especially strong on foreign policy, and I'm concerned that many of the new GOP members of the Senate and House are not.  (Rand Paul comes to mind.) 

Arizona is, generally, a Republican state, and the current conventional wisdom is that Kyl's seat will remain in Republican hands.  But Arizona can surprise us.  The current secretary of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano, was governor of Arizona, and is a Democrat.  I suspect the Democrats will contest the seat vigorously.

February 10, 2011      Permalink

EGYPT UPDATE – AT 7:24 P.M. ET:  President Obama, who was on a nothing trip to Michigan today, hurried back to Washington and huddled with his national security team.

You can be sure that Item One on his agenda was the fact that, once again, we had bad intelligence information.  A speech given by Mr. Obama earlier implied that Mubarak would be gone and joining AARP late in the day.  It didn't happen, once again making the president look foolish.

Oh, by the way, our heroic national intelligence director, James Clapper, who recently didn't know about a critical series of anti-terror arrests in Britain, appeared before a congressional committee today and announced that the Muslim Brotherhood was essentially a secular organization.  That begs the question:  Why is it called the Muslim Brotherhood?

Within a few hours the administration, in a rare rebuke, corrected Clapper's whackiness in a statement issued, obviously under direction, by his own office:

"To clarify Director Clapper's point, in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood makes efforts to work through a political system that has been, under Mubarak's rule, one that is largely secular in its orientation. He is well aware that the Muslim Brotherhood is not a secular organization," DNI spokesperson Jamie Smith said.

I'm not so sure he's aware at all...of that or pretty much anything else. 

"They're as secular as Billy Graham and the pope are secular," former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said.

In Egypt, public anger over Mubarak's failure to step down remains strong, with commentators looking toward tomorrow.  As we've noted, that's the start of the Egyptian weekend, and it's prayer day.

Some members of the regime, like the Egyptian ambassador to Washington, are seeking to soften the Mubarak non-resignation by saying that he really doesn't have any power left.  The demonstrators aren't buying the line. 

February 10, 2011       Permalink

A FUNNY THING HAPPENED TO HOSNI MUBARAK ON THE WAY TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT OFFICE – AT 4:25 P.M. ET: 

Apparently inspired by Jennifer Hudson, President Hosni Mubarak told Egypt today that he isn't going.  He's staying.  Yes, he's transferred some powers to his vice president, but there was no talk of resignation.

The sound you hear is journalists and some U.S. government officials wiping the egg off their faces.  They had all but assured us that Hosni had his bags packed.  There was genuine shock when Mubarak, in a speech that wasn't exactly the Gettysburg Address, announced some procedural steps, but little more.

So what happened?  I don't know, but I have a theory, which I plainly label as speculation:  I believe Mubarak intentionally floated the story to members of his government that he was resigning immediately, knowing these loyal worthies would leak it to the press.  He knew that would be big news, and would be blasted all over the world.  And then, when he didn't resign, journalists would look ridiculous, and lose credibility.  Mubarak wanted to have the last laugh, and he's not in love with reporters.  If my theory is correct, he must have a great sense of satisfaction.

But the story isn't over.  The protesters are plainly livid over Mubarak's refusal to do a Nixon, and step down.  They'll be out in force tomorrow, the start of the Egyptian weekend, and prayer day.  We make no predictions on what tomorrow in Egypt will look like.

February 10, 2011     Permalink

BULLETIN:  EGYPT IN TURMOIL – AT 1:34 P.M. – MOTHER OF MERCY, IS THIS THE END OF HOSNI MUBARAK?

If you don't recognize that line, ask someone who knows Edward G. Robinson movies.

The news networks are now all Egypt, all the time.   President Mubarak is about to address Egypt, and there are reports, apparently authoritative, that he will step down immediately.  Obviously, big stuff.

We've been monitoring both Fox and CNN.  Both are providing some good coverage, but CNN is still held back by the influence of Christiane Amanpour.  Fox, for example, has presented the Israeli perspective on what's been happening, which is critical to the war-and-peace question that hovers over everything in the Mideast.  CNN has no such perspective.  Fox is also providing a careful examination of the Muslim Brotherhood, skeptical of attempts to whitewash the group.  CNN is mixing more whitewash.

Stand by.  No one will know exactly what's happening until Mubarak speaks.   We're waiting for the fat lady to sing, or at least the slightly chubby president of Egypt.

February 10, 2011     Permalink

IS THIS GOOD NEWS?  WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IN THE COMING MONTHS – AT 10:16 A.M. ET:   From Fox News:

WASHINGTON -- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in nearly three years, boosting hopes that companies will step up hiring this year as the economy strengthens.

Applications sank by a seasonally adjusted 36,000 to 383,000, the lowest point since early July 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Unemployment applications reflect the level of layoffs, but also can indicate whether companies are willing to hire.

Applications are well below their peak of 651,000, reached in March 2009, when the economy was deep in recession. Applications below 425,000 tend to signal modest job growth. But they would need to dip consistently to 375,000 or below to indicate a significant and steady decline in the unemployment rate.
Last week's sharp decline continues a downward trend that took shape late last year. The last time applications fell below 400,000 was near the end of December.

Harsh winter snowstorms along in the Southeast forced some companies to temporarily lay off workers last month. That sent applications surging to 457,000 in the week of Jan. 22. But since then applications have been falling.

The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dipped to 415,500 last week. That's slightly above the two-year low of 411,250, reached in the week ending Jan. 1.

COMMENT:  Clearly, if unemployment drops it will place Barack Obama in a far more favorable position for next year's presidential race.  However, the drop in unemployment-benefit applications is far from dramatic, and millions of Americans remain underemployed, earning far less than they did before the downturn started. 

This is one of those "wait and see" situations.  The real story will be told toward the end of this year, as we get serious about electing the next president.

February 10, 2011      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:11 A.M. ET:

From Britain's Sun:  SCIENTISTS have created a real-life thinking cap which works by zapping electricity through the brain.  The weird-looking headwear has had extraordinary results and experts believe it could help people be more creative.  The device was dreamt up by the University of Sydney's Centre for the Mind in Australia and suppresses the left side of the brain to encourage the more creative right side into action.

Any suppression of the left is a move forward.

February 10, 2011       Permalink

LOOKS LIKE DANIELS IS IN – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  Mitch Daniels is a terrific Republican governor of Indiana.  Under his leadership, Indiana has become a success story.  Contrast please with neighboring Illinois, which, as a state, could never get basic collision insurance.

The Great Mentioner has mentioned Daniels as a possible presidential candidate for next year.  Based on record alone, that makes sense, and Daniels clearly is interested.  From The Politico:

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels boasts that he would turn heads with his fundraising firepower and roster of big- name GOP supporters if he jumps into the 2012 presidential race.

“If I were to decide to do this, we would have an unbelievable letterhead,” Daniels predicted in a POLITICO interview Wednesday, lighting up as the hour-long conversation turned to why he could win.

“I don’t know if we’d raise the most, but for whatever reason there are an awful lot of people standing by who I think know how to do this a lot better than I do,” he said, noting that he’s being pushed to run by an array of business types and political figures.

Daniels suggested three things could keep him from plunging in: his wife’s concerns, the calculation that his party or the country aren’t ready for his tough-love message or the emergence of another capable candidate.

And...

He wouldn’t say it, but those who have spoken to him indicate Daniels doesn’t see anyone in the current GOP field focused on the fiscal issues that motivate him. If such a person doesn’t emerge – and Daniels said he’ll announce his decision “no later” than May and potentially in April — the chances of him running will increase. Daniels recounted that his close friend Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour indicated during a conversation a few weeks ago at the Alfalfa Dinner in Washington that he was seriously considering a presidential run. But Daniels declined to say if the presence of Barbour in the field would dissuade him from mounting his own bid.

COMMENT:  It is reported that Mitch's wife is strongly against his running.  And there are other issues:  He is barely known to the public outside Indiana, and he is, frankly, often a dull speaker. 

It could be, of course, that a plain-spoken, quiet man from the Midwest is just what the public wants, but Daniels will still have to show that he can appeal to a nation via television.  I saw him speak publicly last year, and that's far from certain.

By the way, the name being mentioned more and more is Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida, who is personable, intelligent, and has a fine record.  The great drawback, of course, is his name.  We don't like dynasties in America, and the Bush name isn't quite up there with Lincoln's.  But Jeb Bush would, at least, bring excitement, which is lacking right now.

Supposedly, the frontrunner at the moment, if there is one, is Mitt Romney, the very mention of whom cures all insomnia.  In fact, in typing his name I just fell asleep over my computer, awakened only by the overwhelming rush of subliminal conscience. 

But do watch Daniels.  He'd be a terrific president, if he can get there.

February 10, 2011     Permalink

EGYPT UPDATE – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  After a few calming days, the Egyptian situation has become chaotic and confusing once more.  The Mubarak government is holding on, possibly even strengthening its position, as strikes and demonstrations start to spread again.

It was widely reported that Saudi Arabia has warned the United States against throwing Mubarak under the bus that's parked outside the White House – an extension bus by now – and has reportedly said that it would make up any foreign aid that the U.S. cuts from Egypt.  While the Saudi regime is pretty despicable, stability in Saudi Arabia is critical to the world's oil supply and energy prices.  From The New York Times:

CAIRO — As Egypt’s uprising entered its 17th day on Thursday, bolstered by strikes and protests among professional groups in Cairo and workers across the country, a senior official in President Hosni Mubarak’s embattled government was quoted as saying the army would “intervene to control the country” if it fell into chaos.

Among the latest to join the protests, thousands of chanting lawyers in black robes and physicians in white laboratory coats marched into Tahrir Square — the epicenter of the uprising — to join the clamor for Mr. Mubarak’s ouster.

Engineers and journalists also headed for the square on Thursday as the numbers there began to swell once again into their thousands, with demonstrators mingling among the tents and graffiti-sprayed army tanks that have taken on an air of semi-permanence.

The warning by Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit seemed to add a further ominous tone to earlier comments by the newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman who said the alternatives facing tens of thousands of demonstrators demanding Mr. Mubarak’s ouster were dialogue with the authorities or “a coup.”

COMMENT:  We didn't have a clear route for how this will end on the first day of the demonstrations, and we don't have a clear route now.

The U.S. has stepped up its public demands for the regime to bend to the will of "the people," whoever the people are, but American influence seems minimal, now that the Saudis have pledged to write the foreign-aid checks if we won't.  Also, Mr. Obama doesn't exactly project strength and determination, and there is a price to be paid.

February 10, 2011       Permalink

CONSERVATIVES GATHER - WATCH YOUR BACK – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  A big conservative to-do starts today, and presidential wannabes are testing the waters.  But, behind the scenes, the conservative movement is showing the strain of dissent.  From WaPo:

A wide field of Republican potential presidential hopefuls will descend on Washington on Thursday for the conservative movement's biggest annual party, where they will navigate the tussle for attention between social conservatives and newly empowered tea party activists.

A year out from the Iowa caucuses, the 2011 Conservative Political Action Conference is widely viewed, as it is every four years, as a forum for presidential message-testing.

This year, following the growth of the tea party movement and the huge gains Republicans made last year by focusing almost exclusively on economic issues, would-be candidates almost certainly will try to prove their credentials as fiscal conservatives who are ready to cut government and taxes, reduce the deficit and ease the burden of regulations on free enterprise...

...But possible 2012 contenders will be tested on social issues, too. About half a dozen interest groups dedicated to such issues as banning abortion and same-sex marriage are boycotting CPAC's three days of speeches, panel discussions and sales of conservative-themed tchotchkes because of the participation of GOProud, an organization that supports fiscal conservatism as well as gay rights.

COMMENT:  Frankly, it's a bit of a mess, and not very attractive.  Sarah Palin isn't attending the conference, and said on radio that she's troubled by the boycotters. 

There is no mention of foreign policy in the preview, which is baffling. 

These are movement conservatives, and they have enormous influence, but cannot, by themselves, win a national election.  How they maneuver may well determine the Republican presidential fate in 2012.

February 10, 2011     Permalink