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I have a new piece up at Power Line this morning, "David Frye, RIP."  You can read it here.

JANUARY 31,  2011

EGYPT UPDATE – AT 10:01 P.M. ET:  As we anticipate the possibility of a million demonstrators in Egypt on Tuesday, journalistic grown-ups are starting to ask some hard questions about just who's demonstrating, who (if anyone) they represent, and and who will wind up on top?

CAUTION!  Mohamed ElBaradei, the "leading" opposition figure, is finally coming under some deserved scrutiny.  This international swell wasn't even living in Egypt when the protests began.  He rushed home from his plush life in Europe to be with "my people" (choke).  He's made a few appearances on the street.

ElBaradei, let us remember, was head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the main body charged with investigating the Iranian nuclear-weapons program.  But ElBaradei spent a good part of his time defending Iran, playing down its threat...and even opposing sanctions on the Tehran regime.  As soon as he left IAEA, documents he'd ordered suppressed were released, showing far greater danger from Iran than this chap had ever acknowledged.  A weak man who could be swallowed up by more radical elements.

CAUTION:  My rule of thumb in politics:  Anytime they tell you that "the people" are doing something, run in the other direction.  The "people" don't usually do anything, unless they are led.  So be careful about over-the-top descriptions of "mass" demonstrations.  Yes, a million Egyptians may be in the streets tomorrow, but 84 million Egyptians won't be in the streets.  We'd better find out what's behind all this if we don't want to wind up with another Iran.

The Jerusalem Post's correspondent in Egypt filed a report on poor Egyptians that is very telling.  The key quote:

The residents of Nazlet e-Samman were almost unanimous in their support for President Hosni Mubarak, a viewpoint nearly impossible to find downtown.

They said the protesters were upper-class Cairenes who don’t understand the importance of the stability that Mubarak brought to their lives.

“If you hate Mubarak, you’re not Egyptian,” said Fariq, an employee at the Khattab Papyrus Factory, a touristy store that sells papyrus reproductions that stood shuttered and empty on Monday.

He accused Mohamed ElBaradei, a popular opposition figure who lives in Vienna and returned to Egypt on Friday, of not understanding the needs of regular Egyptians.

“If you love my country, why are you not here?” Fariq asked. “Why are you not eating my food, sleeping in my bed, wearing my clothes, breathing my air?”

We need more reporting like this.  It's very easy to wave the "democracy" flag.  It was waved in Germany in 1932 also.  And it was waved in Gaza, leading to a Hamas takeover. 

CAUTION:  Increasingly the Muslim Brotherhood is being described as a moderate organization with limited influence in Egypt.  It is in fact a radical organization with a pro-Nazi past, and has given birth to some of the leaders of Al Qaeda.  Even if it does not represent a majority, it can leverage its power through fear and intimidation...and assassination.  Don't believe the "moderate" label.

COMMENT:  The situation is Egypt is one of the most dangerous we've seen in any part of the world in recent years.  Our own country is led by a weak president with strong leftist and Muslim sympathies.  Every caution light should be on.

January 31, 2011       Permalink

OBAMACARE RULLED UNCONSTITUTIONAL – AT 6:01 P.M. ET:  A federal judge in Florida has ruled the Obama health-reform law unconstitutional.  We caution that this is a district judge, whose opinion can now be appealed to a federal appeals court, and all the way up to the Supreme Court.  From WaPo:

A federal judge in Florida struck down the entire new health-care law Monday, ruling that its requirement that Americans obtain health insurance is unconstitutional and cannot be separated from the rest of the statute.

The decision by U.S. District Court judge Roger Vinson in a suit brought by the attorneys general and governors of 26 states - all but one of them Republican - is a more sweeping repudiation of the law than a ruling out of Virginia that also found the insurance mandate invalid.

At a time when House Republicans already have voted to repeal the law, the ruling bolsters GOP arguments in a legal battle widely expected to end in the Supreme Court. Twenty-five court challenges have been filed since the law's adoption last March; with Monday's decision, two rulings so far have upheld it and two have found all or part of it unconstitutional.

COMMENT:  This legal fight is far from over, and Republicans should not sit back, contented.  The ultimate issue won't be whether Obamacare survives the constitutional test, but whether Republicans can up with an acceptable alternative that satisfies the nation's demand for reform of the health-care system.  So far, I have not seen a GOP plan. 

January 31, 2011      Permalink

EGYPT CRISIS DEEPENS – AT 4:56 P.M. ET:  The Army announces it will  not fire on protesters, forcing the government to offer negotiations.  From The New York Times:

CAIRO — The political forces aligned against President Hosni Mubarak appeared to strengthen sharply Monday when the Army said for the first time that it would not fire on the protesters who have convulsed Egypt for a week demanding his resignation. The announcement was shortly followed by the government’s first offer to talk to the protest leaders.

Egypt’s new vice president said on state television that he had been authorized to open a dialogue with the opposition for constitutional and political reforms. The vice president, Omar Suleiman, did not offer any further details.

It was not immediately clear who Mr. Suleiman was addressing his offer to, or whether the opposition would accept. Throughout the protests, the overriding demand of the protesters has been Mr. Mubarak’s resignation.

But the announcement came after Mr. Mubarak appeared to lose a major leverage of power: The Egyptian Army announced that it would not fire on protesters, even as tens of thousands of people gathered in central Liberation Square for a seventh day to demand his resignation.

The extraordinary announcement — delivered on state TV with no elaboration by the Army’s official spokesman — declared that “freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody.” Yet, coming from a government dominated by former military officers, including Mr. Mubarak, it raised as many questions as it answered.

As we reported earlier, opposition leaders have called for a million Egyptians to gather in the streets tomorrow to protest.  If the offer of dialogue is turned down, as it likely will be, it's hard to see how Mubarak can survive politically.

At the same time, some Israeli political leaders and observers are expressing increasing dismay at the speed with which America is abandoning the Mubarak government, a firm American ally.  The Israelis see this as a repeat of the mistakes that Carter made in dumping the Shah of Iran in the 1970s, a step that led to the extremist government in place in Tehran today. 

Sometimes we forget, in the firm and stable United States, that democracy and justice are two different concepts, and democracy and wisdom are emphatically too different concepts.  In the Middle East they like to use the phrase, "one man, one vote, one time," to describe how democracy has sometimes worked in that region. 

We are in very dangerous waters.  The administration must do a balancing act.  It is not in a good position, and the man at the top is known for weakness.

January 31, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 11:20 A.M. ET:

From a New York Times piece on health concerns over a new electric meter in the San Francisco area: 

"Hypervigilance on health questions has long been typical of Bay Area residents; some local schools ban cupcakes or other sugared treats for classroom birthday celebrations in favor of more nutritious treats like crunchy seaweed snacks, for example."

The day this country replaces cupcakes with "crunchy seaweed snacks" will be the end of American civilization as we know it.  They'll have to pry my stiff, cold hands from around those cupcakes, and I hope you real Americans out there feel the same.

January 31, 2011      Permalink

A WARNING FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE – AT 9:49 A.M. ET:  We have warned here before that the cost of fuel is a major sleeper issue for 2012.  I'm currently paying $3.50 at the pump for regular.  The Egyptian crisis, with its possible effect on oil shipments through the Suez Canal, can drive prices even higher, as we approach the 2012 elections.   Consider this story from New Hampshire, the first primary state: 

This winter has brought a perfect storm -- a tough economy, very cold weather and high fuel prices, according to Louise Bergeron, energy director for Southern New Hampshire Services.

In fact, with home heating oil prices 20 percent higher than a year ago, some needy families have already exhausted benefits, according to the state Office of Energy and Planning.

"I'm getting a lot of calls from elderly people who are very concerned because they have already expended their full fuel assistance benefit, and we're still in January and it's still very, very cold," Bergeron said.

As of Jan. 21, there were 7,170 households across the state that had used up their $1,125 maximum fuel assistance benefit. An elderly couple Bergeron spoke to last Thursday told her they were forced to set the thermostat at 55 at 7 o'clock in the evening, even though one of them is very sick.

"I cautioned her not to do that," she said, "that we would find a way to help if and when they needed another delivery, because I was concerned for the person who was very ill.

"You know, that shouldn't happen in our world," she said. "We don't want our grandmothers to freeze."

Jim Potti, a driver for Buxton Oil, unhooks the hose from the fuel pipe after making a delivery in Fremont recently.

"The single biggest factor is the price of the crude that the refiners have to buy," said Joe Broyles, a state energy program manager.

COMMENT:  If home heating oil soars in price, and gas at the pump takes the same route, it could have a devastating effect on an Obama campaign...especially as this administration is waging a war against offshore drilling and pretty much everything else that oil companies do.

One of the things that drove Carter from office was energy inflation.  It can happen again.  And this time, the Obaman antagonism toward oil drilling and oil as an energy source can be documented and publicized.

Watch this issue closely.

January 31, 2011      Permalink

BARONE ON 2012 PROSPECTS – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  Our eyes are on Egypt, but let's not forget that the calendar moves us relentlessly toward the 2012 elections, in which we'll elect a president, the entire House, and a third of the Senate.  Michael Barone examines the numbers, and likes the GOP prospects.  From RealClearPolitics:   

In the 2012 cycle, 23 Democrats come up for re-election and only 10 Republicans. You can get a good idea of their political incentives by looking at the 2010 popular vote for the House in their states. Since the mid-1990s, when partisan percentages in presidential and House elections converged, the popular vote for the House has been a pretty good gauge of partisan balance.

Of the 10 Republican senators up for re-election, only two represent states where Democrats won the House vote -- Olympia Snowe of Maine and Scott Brown of Massachusetts. They're both well ahead in local polls.

For the 23 Democrats up for re-election, the picture is different. Eight represent states where the House vote was 53 percent to 65 percent Democratic and where Barack Obama got more than 60 percent in 2008. Count them all as safe.

But 12 represent states where Republicans got a majority of the House vote in 2010. These include big states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Virginia, and states like Montana and Nebraska, where Republican House candidates topped 60 percent. Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin round out the list.

In another three states -- New Mexico, Washington, Minnesota -- Republicans won between 46 percent and 48 percent of the House popular vote. These were solid Obama states in 2008. They don't look like solid Democratic states now.

And...

Finally, what about the portents for the 2012 presidential race? Well, start off with the fact that Democrats won the House popular vote in only two of the 17 states that do not have Senate elections next cycle. The other 15 went Republican.

Overall, Democrats carried the popular vote for the House in 15 states with 182 electoral votes in 2012; add three more for the District of Columbia. Democrats were within 5 percent of Republicans in House elections in five more states with 52 electoral votes.

That gets Democrats up to 237 electoral votes, 33 votes shy of the 270-vote majority and 128 short of the 365 electoral votes Obama won in 2008.

Opinion can change, as it did in 2009 and 2010. But these are not favorable numbers for Obama or his party.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  But so much depends on unanticipated events, like the president's handling of the current Mideast crisis.  And much will depend on GOP performance in Congress.  If Republicans just become the party of "no," they will make no great impression.

And of course, and most important, Republican presidential prospects will depend on the candidate.  So far, there is no clear winner, and no one who, as of yet, can take on Obama's campaign power.  So, nothing is in the bag.

January 31, 2011       Permalink

HE SPEAKS – AT 8:47 A.M. ET:  Speaking of the devil, and he is, Jimmah Carter is now commenting on events in Egypt.  As usual, he is profound and far beyond our understanding (choke).  Reader Joseph J. Gallick alerts us to this:

PLAINS, Ga. -- Former President Jimmy Carter called the week-long political unrest and rioting in Egypt an “earth-shaking event” and said his guess is that the country’s president, Hosni Mubarak, “will have to leave.”

Leave it to Carter to inform us.

Carter’s remarks came at Maranatha Baptist Church, where he regularly teaches a Sunday School class to visitors from across the country and globe.

“This is the most profound situation in the Middle East since I left office,” Carter said Sunday to the nearly 300 people packed into the small sanctuary about a half mile from downtown Plains.

Left?  Most of us recall that he was fired.

Carter spent the first 15 minutes of his 50-minute class talking about Egypt.

Carter was president from 1977-81 and brokered the historic peace agreement between Israel and Egypt in 1978. He brought Egyptian President Anwar al-Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin together for an agreement that still stands today.

No he didn't.  It was Sadat who initiated the contacts.  No Sadat, no brokering.

As the Egyptian unrest has escalated, Carter said he has been watching closely on his computer the coverage on Al Jazeera, an international news network headquartered in Qatar.

Huh?  That's what he watches?  No wonder Carter always sounds so well informed.  Well, I wouldn't imagine he'd watch Fox News.

COMMENT:  Carter is the last man I'd check on this situation.  His botching of Iran during his one term in office haunts us to this day.  He shares with Barack Obama two characteristics:  Carter was a weak president, and did not seem to understand the mechanics of actually doing things.  On the other hand, Obama comes nowhere near Carter on the "obnoxious" meter, a relief to all of us.

January 31, 2011     Permalink

EGYPT, DAY 7 – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  Demonstrations continue in Egyptian cities.  One CNN reporter says that support for the protesters is increasing rather than waning, although we have no objective evidence of that.

It is the 8th day – tomorrow – that may be decisive.  There are calls from opposition leaders for a million-person turnout.  (It's already being called, by some American journalists, the "million-man march.")

There is still no definitive word on which political force is benefiting most from the remarkable disruptions in Egypt.  The military, the country's most powerful institution, and highly revered, is playing it very cautiously.  It is in the streets, but not firing on protesters.

The position of the United States, as enunciated by Secretary Clinton, appears to be this:  On the one hand, we want to be seen as endorsing democratic reforms.  On the other, we are fearful that if we abandon Mubarak too quickly, we will see a repeat of the Iran scenario of the 1970s – when Jimmah ("Ahm the best ex-president evah") Carter cut off the Shah, an old American ally, to embrace the Iranian revolution, a revolution that made matters much worse for the Iranian people and for us.  We also are conscious of charges that Americans, in a crisis, abandons its friends. 

Daniel Kurtzer, the American diplomat who has been ambassador to both Egypt and Israel, appeared on CNN this morning to point out something that needs emphasizing:  While there are thousands of people marching in Egyptian streets, there are 85 million people in Egypt, and much of the Egyptian population has historically chosen stability over reform.  We really have no way of knowing what the majority in Egypt really believes right now.

Indeed, reports in the Israeli press say that the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is urging other nations to go easy on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who clings to power, noting the importance of a stable Egypt. 

Mubarak shows no signs of stepping down.  He has introduced new cabinet ministers to the Egyptian people on television, and is being photographed directing security operations. 

Bottom line:  Many pictures, a torrent of words, little clarity.  If the opposition can truly put a million people in the streets tomorrow, everything may change.

January 31, 2011     Permalink

JANUARY 30,  2011

AND NOW IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 11:27 P.M. ET:  Every now and then, it's important to remind ourselves why the stability of the Muslim world is so important to the United States.  That world includes Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen, all of which are seeing serious on-the-street challenges to their political leadership. Even more critical may be Pakistan.  From the Washington Post:

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal now totals more than 100 deployed weapons, a doubling of its stockpile over the past several years in one of the world's most unstable regions, according to estimates by nongovernment analysts.

The Pakistanis have significantly accelerated production of uranium and plutonium for bombs and developed new weapons to deliver them. After years of approximate weapons parity, experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

An escalation of the arms race in South Asia poses a dilemmafor the Obama administration, which has worked to improve its economic, political and defense ties with India while seeking to deepen its relationship with Pakistan as a crucial component of its Afghanistan war strategy.

In politically fragile Pakistan, the administration is caught between fears of proliferation or possible terrorist attempts to seize nuclear materials and Pakistani suspicions that the United States aims to control or limit its weapons program and favors India.

Those suspicions were on public display last week at the opening session of U.N. disarmament talks in Geneva, where Pakistani Ambassador Zamir Akram accused the United States and other major powers of "double standards and discrimination" for pushing a global treaty banning all future production of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium.

COMMENT:  The fear is that Pakistan could fall under the control of Islamists.  The instability we're seeing in the Mideast this week can influence Pakistan, where discontent runs high. 

We're in a mess.  We have a weak, vacillating president, a sick economy, a nation deeply in debt, and an ineffective foreign policy based on theories from college faculty lounges.  Jimmah Carter is smiling.  Ronald Reagan is not.

January 30, 2011       Permalink

THIS IS COMPLETELY ASININE – AT 10:44 A.M. ET:  No matter how you feel about the "don't ask, don't tell" issue in the American military, the Pentagon is working to do away with the practice, now that Congress has outlawed it.  And yet, that is apparently not enough for America's wackiest appeals court:

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A federal appeals court has denied the government’s request to suspend a lawsuit challenging the military’s ban on openly gay service members.

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco issued an order Friday requiring the Department of Justice to file papers by Feb. 25 arguing why the court should overturn a southern California trial judge who declared the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy unconstitutional.

Government lawyers asked the 9th Circuit earlier this month to set aside the case because the Pentagon is moving quickly to satisfy the steps Congress outlined last month when it voted to allow the ban’s repeal.

The appeals court did not explain in its order why it rejected the request.

This is judicial overreach, and, naturally, the court doing the overreaching is in San Francisco, home of Nancy Pelosi. 

Traditionally, courts have been reluctant to involve themselves in matters concerning the governance of the U.S. military.  But the ninth circuit is the most liberal circuit, and has the warm, fuzzy feel of West Coast liberalism.  It seems determined to mess things up as badly as possible, even as the Pentagon proceeds responsibly.

January 30, 2011      Permalink

VINDICATION? – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  Are events in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and Jordan vindicating the vision of George W. Bush?  It certainly appears that this is possible, as noted by former Bush official Elliott Abrams in today's Washington Post:

For decades the Arab states have seemed exceptions to the laws of politics and human nature. While liberty expanded in many parts of the globe, these nations were left behind, their "freedom deficit" signaling the political underdevelopment that accompanied many other economic and social maladies. In November 2003, President George W. Bush laid out this question:

"Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even to have a choice in the matter?"

The massive and violent demonstrations underway in Egypt, the smaller ones in Jordan and Yemen, and the recent revolt in Tunisia that inspired those events, have affirmed that the answer is no and are exploding, once and for all, the myth of Arab exceptionalism. Arab nations, too, yearn to throw off the secret police, to read a newspaper that the Ministry of Information has not censored and to vote in free elections. The Arab world may not be swept with a broad wave of revolts now, but neither will it soon forget this moment.

COMMENT:  For his democratic vision, George Bush was called a fascist, a Zionist tool, an imperialist, and a warmonger.  By contrast, Barack Obama, who never lifted a finger to advance democracy, was welcomed as a breath of fresh air.

The comparison is troubling, not because Bush's vision was so obviously superior to Obama's, but because the advance of democracy is held in such low regard by the elites, the universities, and the media, even in democratic countries.  I suspect that this is because of the corrosive influence of the left, which is exposed once again as indifferent to democracy, or even hostile to it.

January 30, 2011       Permalink

EGYPT, DAY SIX – AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  The demonstrations continue in Egypt.  For the first time, the Egyptian Air Force sent fighters over Cairo, apparently as a warning to demonstrators, although it's hard to see any circumstances under which Egyptian pilots would attack their own people. 

At the same time, the State Department is now advising Americans to leave Egypt:

CAIRO -- The U.S. Embassy in Egypt on Sunday recommended that Americans leave the country as soon as possible, while other nations urged their nationals to avoid traveling to Cairo as days of protests descended into chaos, with looters roaming the streets and travelers stranded in the airport.

The Sunday morning travel warning came as uncertainty mounted over how the demonstrations that have roiled the Arab world's most populous nation will play out. Those questions, coupled with the growing lawlessness, have panicked Egyptians and foreigners alike, with thousands flocking to the airport frantically trying to secure a dwindling number of available seats. Others hopped on private jets and made their escape.

The lawlessness referred to includes mass looting.  In addition, there were several prison breaks last night, apparently engineered to free Islamic extremists.  That is not good news for us.

Egypt has closed down the broadcast facilities of Al Jazeera, charging the Arab broadcaster with incitement.

It is still not at all clear who is benefiting, or will benefit, from the mass demonstrations.  Washington is plainly apprehensive that this could all head south, with nutbag elements, plentiful in the Arab world, taking control of the most important Arab country.

At the same time, Hosni Mubarak clings to power.  Sometimes, dictators ride out these storms.  So far, Mubarak shows no signs of stepping down, but that could change in an instant if a rock with a message comes through his bedroom window.

January 30, 2011     Permalink