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JULY 5,  2011

ANOTHER FINE LEADER FOR EGYPT – AT 11:27 P.M. ET:  It is dismaying to see how many certified jerks the Arab world can produce in a lifetime.  One of Egypt's new "democratic" leaders sounds pretty much like the old crowd, complete with the pro-Nazi spin.  From the Washington Times:

BUDAPEST — A leader of Egypt’s top secular party says the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were “made in the USA,” the Holocaust is “a lie” and Anne Frank’s memoir is “a fake” — comments sure to roil the post-revolution political debate in the Arab world’s most populous country.

Ahmed Ezz El-Arab, a vice chairman of Egypt's Wafd Party, made the remarks in an exclusive interview with The Washington Times last week while in the Hungarian capital attending the Conference on Democracy and Human Rights.

He denied that the Nazis killed 6 million Jews during World War II.

And...

In the interview, Mr. Ezz El-Arab also said that Osama bin Laden was not behind the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

“He could not have the know-how or the ability to do it,” he said, even though he called the dead al Qaeda leader “an American agent.”

“If he had the ability, one plane only landing on the Knesset would give more effect,” Mr. Ezz El-Arab said.

Asked who was responsible for the attacks, Mr. Ezz El-Arab identified the CIA, Israel’s Mossad intelligence service, and the “military-industrial complex.”

And...

Mr. Ezz El-Arab spoke of “the intelligent American elite that is ruling” and said it had responded to the “disaster” of President George W. Bush by electing Barack Obama president: “Obama is a nice face that has been brought up, the black rabbit taken out of the American hat when it was needed.”

COMMENT:  The future of Egypt is certainly in good hands, isn't it?  Of course, we can't wait for the U.S. State Department to announce that it is "engaging" with this character.

Ah the Arab spring.  Tra-la, tra-la. 

July 5, 2011      Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 11:05 P.M. ET:   A number of polls now show President Obama's approval rating in the high forties, give or take a few points.  But Stu Rothenberg, one of the most astute political analysts around, has written a very persuasive piece arguing that the president may be in worse shape than the numbers indicate.  From Roll Call:

In March of 2006, Bush's job approval fell to 33 percent in Pew polling, and immediately before the 2008 elections, in late October, his job approval stood at 20 percent, while a stunning 70 percent disapproved. In December 2008, as he was about to leave office, Bush's job ratings stood at 24 percent approval and 68 percent disapproval.

In comparison with those numbers, Obama looks wildly popular.

But Obama continues to earn much higher marks, in part, because his base, including liberal Democrats and African-Americans, has been standing by him, which has tended to prevent his overall job approval numbers from falling as much as they otherwise might.

For example, while Obama's job approval in the Pew survey stood at 46 percent among all adults, it was 87 percent among African-Americans and 81 percent among liberal Democrats.

In comparison, the president's job approval stood at 77 percent among all Democrats, at just 42 percent among independents and at a weak 39 percent among white independents.

And...

Of course, all of the president's numbers could change between now and November 2012, but for now, they constitute a considerable problem for him, since independents are a key swing constituency and Obama's strong showing among swing voters was one of the most important reasons why he did so well overall and in key states such as Ohio and Florida.

COMMENT:  Independents will decide the next election.  That is why the choice of a Republican candidate is so critical.  He or she must, of course, articulate conservative values, but must also have the unique ability to appeal to independents.  No appeal to the "I" vote, no victory.  And I'm not interested in second place or "moral" victories.  The future of our country may depend on the next election.

July 5, 2011       Permalink

THE CRUMBLING CASE – AT 10:07 A.M. ET:  The Dominique Strauss-Kahn case continues to make waves.  After all, a American district attorney charged a potential president of France with sexual assault and threw him in jail, only to find out later that the accuser had, to put it mildly, as credibility problem.  Now it appears the case will be dropped altogether:

Pop the champagne, DSK.

Prosecutors will agree to drop the charges against Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- either on his next court date in two weeks or even sooner, according to a top investigator in the case who called the eventual dismissal "a certainty."

"We all know this case is not sustainable," the source told The Post exclusively yesterday.

"Her credibility is so bad now, we know we cannot sustain a case with her," the source said, referring to the Guinean hotel maid who accused Strauss-Kahn of trying to rape her in his plush Midtown hotel suite -- shocking charges that got the international banker bounced as head of the IMF and also derailed, at least for now, his bid to become president of France.

And...

"She is not to be believed in anything that comes out of her mouth -- which is a shame, because now we may never know what happened in that hotel room," said the source, who is at the center of the investigation and would speak only on the condition of anonymity.

"Did [Strauss-Kahn] use force? Was there actually a crime? I don't think we'll ever know."

Meanwhile, defense sources described a different scenario, in which DSK admittedly engaged with the maid in a consensual, sex-for-money exchange in his Sofitel suite, with no force involved -- and she turned against him only when he stiffed her.

COMMENT:  There is no doubt that Strauss-Kahn is a sleaze.  His reputation preceded him.  That doesn't, however, make him a criminal.  There was a rush to judgment here, frighteningly similar to rushes in other, similar cases, like the Duke University lacrosse case. 

We simply have to do better.  This has been an international incident, costing a man, however slippery he may be, his job and probably his future.  We should begin reform by eliminating the "perp walk," the practice of parading the accused in front of TV cameras.   The presumption of innocence is lost.  It's demeaning to our justice system.

And as we must insist on justice for a legitimate accuser, we must be on guard against the false charge.   The tradition of our justice system is that we'd rather see a hundred guilty people go free than see one innocent person imprisoned. 

I'm certainly no bleeding heart, as readers know, but there have been too many disturbing cases like this.  I once interviewed a man for The Tonight Show who'd spent 25 years in prison for a crime he didn't commit.  He was eventually pardoned.  But who gives him back the 25 years? 

July 5, 2011       Permalink

ANOTHER OBAMA RETRENCHMENT FOR THE WORLD'S GREATEST POWER – AT 9:10 A.M. ET:  You have a perfect right, even a responsibility, to be enraged at what Obama is doing to the space program, perhaps the single most important symbol of American engineering prowess.  From WaPo:

When astronaut Garrett Reisman returned from an 11-day space shuttle mission last May, he knew he was headed to the back of the line. If he wanted to return to orbit, he would have to wait at least five years for a second tour aboard the international space station, which he had called home for 95 days in 2008.

And even if he were offered a chance to return to space, Reisman would have to fly aboard a cramped Russian capsule, not an American space shuttle. After NASA’s Atlantis rolls to a stop later this month, the Soyuz will be the only ride to space — and slots are limited.

Imagine, a Russian capsule will be the only ride into space...for the first time in almost half a century.  Obama certainly has changed things, hasn't he?

For the foreseeable future, NASA plans to send just four to six astronauts — American and international — to the space station each year, paying Russia up to $56 million per seat.

Instead of waiting, Reisman joined a steady flow of astronauts drifting away from NASA like so many untethered spacewalkers.

The agency’s vaunted astronaut corps, trained to withstand high acceleration, dangerous spacewalks, isolation and countless technical hiccups, now confronts a challenge with no handy checklist: the unknown.

“A lot of astronauts have to make a decision. Do they want to wait five, six, seven years?” said Thomas D. Jones, a Baltimore native who flew four shuttle missions before leaving NASA in 2001.

At that time, the agency employed 150 astronauts, the largest space-going workforce in its history. By October 2009, that number had fallen to 92. Now it stands at 61, with two retirements imminent — including that of Mark Kelly, the commander of a recent shuttle mission and the husband of Gabrielle Giffords, the wounded Arizona congresswoman — and “a few more departures” likely later this year, said Peggy Whitson, chief astronaut at Johnson Space Center in Houston.

COMMENT:  I know, I know.  Some space exploration can be done more cheaply by machines rather than astronauts.  But the symbolism of the astronaut cannot be matched, not can the sheer thrill of men and women in space speaking to Earth, and expecially to their countrymen.

Great nations require great symbols.  "Showing the flag" is a time-honored way in which a nation displays its abilities and its strength.   It enrages me to think that the only flag that will be shown in space for a long time will be the flag of a corrupt, struggling Russia, a nation no one ever described as the last great hope of mankind.

July 5, 2011       Permalink

NOW WE'RE TALKIN' – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Conservative columnist Cal Thomas is the latest to suggest that the GOP skip a generation and pick Marco Rubio as its candidate next year.  Rubio is adamantly refusing, but they all say that:

At first he didn't want to do any national media, preferring to focus on Florida issues. He didn't make his maiden speech on the Senate floor until June 14, five months after being sworn-in.

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) so gifted at age 40, combines passion for his conservative ideas with a humility that could easily spill over into arrogance, if he didn't have a strong sense of self. On the morning of our first meeting, I arrive early. He arrives before his staff and goes around turning on lights with no sense that such action is below his pay grade. In a town full of hubris and self-absorption, Rubio appears not to have yet caught the disease. Perhaps he will turn out to be the Hispanic version of Jimmy Stewart's movie character, "Mr. Smith."

I'll take that.

That doesn't mean Rubio can't attack President Obama, but when he does, it is the president's policies he goes after, not the man.

Of the president's harsh verbal assault on Republicans during his news conference last Wednesday, Rubio says, "I was taken aback by some of the rhetoric the president used, which I think is more appropriate for some left-wing strong man than for the president of the United States."

And...

What does he think of the Republican presidential field so far? "I think it's underrated. ... I think we're going to have a good nominee. ... The question for the American people in November 2012 is: are we going to extend Barack Obama's contract for another four years? If the election were today, you would say every meaningful measure of life in America is worse than in January 2009."

Rubio is aware this sounds Reaganesque as in, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

What about the vice presidency? Does he see himself as a possible running mate? "I don't think I'll be asked. I doubt very seriously you are going to see me on that ticket."

Maybe not, but if Rubio's stock continues to rise, he might not have to think about being asked in 2012. In four or eight more years, he might well be the Republican presidential nominee asking someone to run with him.

COMMENT:  Rubio has that rare gift, the ability to command an audience, keep its attention, and make it want to follow his lead. 

True, his national experience is thin thus far, but his overall experience, including a stint as speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, is more extensive than was Obama's when Obama ran for president.  Of course, Obama was always running for president.

I can't see how Rubio can jump in, given the firm denials of current interest...unless a boomlet can be started for him somewhere outside his Senate office.  And, of course, a speaking tour by Rubio himself could help, as it is that rapport with voters that is his most powerful selling point, that and a clear conservative platform that is thoughtful, without a bit of nuttiness.  Rubio also has the rhetorical ability to take on the press, a clear necessity for a Republican candidate next year.

July 5, 2011       Permalink

COULD THIS BE REAL? – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  Ordinarily, I'd dismiss political speculation like this, but it comes from one of the best, old-time shoe-leather political reporters around, Fred Dicker of the New York Post:

A Prominent Republican is joining a prominent Democrat in predicting that Gov. Cuomo will become President Obama's running mate for vice president next year.

Former New York GOP boss William Powers, credited with playing a key role in electing Rudy Giuliani mayor and George Pataki governor, was effusive in his praise of Cuomo's successes in the just-ended legislative session, and in his prediction of the freshman governor's political future.

"Andrew had a fabulous session. It was fabulous. A property-tax cap, ethics reform and, for Democrats, gay marriage," said Powers.

"I don't think there's any doubt Obama is going to pick him as his running mate. The president is in trouble and [Vice President Joseph] Biden doesn't bring anything to his ticket.

"The president will call him up later this year and say, 'Andrew, you have to do this for the good of the country.' What's Andrew going to say, 'No?' "

Yes, Cuomo did have a solid opening year as governor.  First of all, he has a pulse, which, for a New York governor, is an unusual characteristic.  He got things done, and most of them flashed "moderate" rather than liberal.

Cuomo, who saw a flurry of predictions last week in the wake of the gay-marriage victory that he'll run for president in 2016, has repeatedly refused to discuss the possibility of higher office.

He wouldn't comment either on Powers' prediction, but a source familiar with his thinking half-jokingly said this when asked what action Cuomo would take if Obama called to offer him the nation's No. 2 position: "He won't answer."

Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown earlier this year also predicted that Obama would pick Cuomo to replace Biden, who he claimed would be named by the president to replace Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"He's a big name, a big-state governor, and a Democrat who is taking on the issue of public-employee salaries and pensions. Plus, he looks good," Brown said of Cuomo.

Clinton has announced she'll leave after one presidential term.  Replacing her with Biden makes sense because Biden has what the inside-the-Beltway crowd calls "extenstive" foreign-policy experience.  Trouble is, he's been wrong most of the time.  If we had listened to Biden, we'd still be fighting the Cold War, and probably losing.

I'm skeptical of the story.  Biden may bring nothing to the Democratic ticket, but I'm not really sure what Cuomo brings.  He's governor of a state that's already in the bag for Obama.  Also, dropping Biden may look like Obama, once again, throwing a friend under the bus.  It's getting crowded under there.

Finally, Cuomo is a shrewd political operator, and much more hard-knuckled than his philosophical father, Mario, a three-term governor.  He knows something about appearances, and abandoning the state to run for national office barely two years into his term just doesn't look very good.  Too ambitious.  Too eager.

But I'm willing to be convinced.

July 5, 2011     Permalink

JULY 4,  2011

SYRIA BURNS – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  It is amazing how little attention is being given to the ongoing revolt in Syria, one of the most important Arab countries, and Iran's closest ally in the Mideast.  But this is turning into a major tragedy, with substantial implications for the future of the region.  From Reuters:

AMMAN - Syrian troops stormed houses in the city of Hama on Monday as thousands of residents took to the streets shouting "God is greater" in defiance of a government crackdown on recent large protests, residents said.

"At least 30 buses carrying soldiers and security police entered Hama this morning. They are firing randomly in residential neighborhoods," one of the residents, a workshop owner who gave his name as Ahmad, said by telephone...

...Tanks deployed in Hama on Sunday but later pulled back, residents said, two days after the city witnessed the largest protest against the 11-year rule of Syrian President Bashar Assad since an uprising demanding political freedoms and Assad's removal began nearly four months ago.

COMMENT:  Assad's father also sent military forces into Hama in 1982 to crush an uprising.  That action killed thousands, possibly as many as 30,000. 

Usually, Arabs choose Friday as their day of protest.  The fact that protests are spreading to other days of the week, and are being met by gunfire, is an ominous sign for the future.  Thus far, the Syrian regime is only getting some tut-tutting and minor sanctions from the West.  President Obama seems completely disengaged.  His administration says that the president of Syria is losing his legitimacy, and the president of Syria simply ignores us.  Change we can't believe in.

July 4, 2011       Permalink

TODAY MARKS AMERICA'S INDEPENDENCE FROM GREAT BRITAIN, BUT ALSO MARKS BRITAIN'S TRIBUTE TO AN AMERICAN PRESIDENT – AT 10:20 A.M. ET:  The British have graciously picked today to unveil a statue of Ronald Reagan in London.  From The Telegraph:

Ronald Reagan assumes his lapidary place in Grosvenor Square today, alongside Franklin D Roosevelt and Dwight D Eisenhower...

...We in this country have particular reason to be grateful to the Gipper. When General Galtieri attacked the Falkland Islands, he did everything he could to support us short of formally entering into hostilities with Argentina. The United States offered Britain immediate logistical and intelligence support...

...What distinguishes Reagan, though, is not simply his Anglophilia. Every president from Theodore Roosevelt to George W Bush has been, in practical terms, pro-British: Barack Obama is the exception. No, what sets him apart is the magnitude of his achievement. At home, he reversed the disastrous decline of conservatism and began the work of constraining government. Abroad, as the inscription on his statue puts it, he won the Cold War without firing a shot.

COMMENT:  Several commentators have pointed out that Reagan endured endless ridicule during his political career.  One Washington hand called him "an amiable dunce," others dismissed him as a washed-up movie actor. 

But Reagan was a well-read, informed, and thoughtful international politician who had a clear idea of where he wanted to take the United States, and took us there. 

Great men and women are usually known for one great accomplishment, even if some of their efforts end in failure.  Lincoln guided the nation through the Civil War.  Roosevelt did the same in World War II.  Washington created the American presidency.  I believe Reagan will be known primarily as the man whose policies led to a peaceful end to the Cold War and the establishment of freedom in Eastern Europe.   In this he had the help of Margaret Thatcher and Pope John Paul II. 

And great men and women are usually known for a phrase, a line they spoke or wrote that defined who they were.  When Ronald Reagan said, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall," we knew exactly who he was. 

July 4, 2011       Permalink

AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE – AT 10:05 A.M. ET:  This is a very nice July 4th story – the last draftee in the American military is about to retire.  From AP:

FORT BELVOIR, Va. - He didn’t join the Army willingly, but as Command Sergeant Major Jeff Mellinger prepares to retire, he is grateful he found his calling.

Mellinger, 58, was drafted to fight in the Vietnam War, and the Army believes he is the last draftee to retire, after 39 years. Most did their two years and left. But Mellinger had found home.

“I think I’m pretty good at it, but I like it,’’ he said. “That’s the bottom line. I love being a soldier and I love being around soldiers.’’

When the draft notice arrived in the mail in 1972 at his home in Eugene, Ore., tens of thousands of troops had been killed and antiwar protests were rampant. The return address on the letter was the White House. Just 19, he was impressed that President Richard Nixon would write to him. “I opened it up and it said, ‘Greetings from the president of the United States.’ I said, ‘Wow, how’s he know me?’ ’’ Mellinger said, laughing.

Once the path was set, he said, he didn’t consider trying to find a way out.

He earned a spot in the Army Rangers, and would go on to do more than 3,700 parachute jumps. He was made a command sergeant major in 1992.

COMMENT:  I've always had mixed feelings about the end of the draft, which came about by presidential order in 1973.  On the one hand, a volunteer military tends to be more efficient, with higher morale and motivation.  On the other hand, not having a draft means fewer Americans have contact with, and an understanding of, the military.  The military has become a class apart.

When I grew up, and I'm sure this applies to many readers as well, you could walk down any block in America and find a number of veterans, or active-duty members of the armed forces.  Today, most Americans don't know any soldiers, and it's rare that we meet one.  Too bad.  Not good for the country.

July 4, 2011     Permalink