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JULY 14,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

NO NAME BEATS OBAMA – This must be humiliating to a man presented to us as a demigod.  A new Gallup poll shows that a generic Republican candidate would defeat President Obama by 47-39%.  Preference had been pretty evenly divided in recent polls.  The gap, 44-34%, is even wider among independents.  Of course, the election is 16 months away, and a named Republican candidate may actually do worse than the generic guy, so polls like this are significant largely as signs of trends, or as entertainment. 

SAN FRAN NAN SPEAKS – Nancy Pelosi says that President Obama is displaying more patience than the Biblical figure, Job, in debt negotiations.  “I want to commend the president – I have never seen – Job is no place compared to this president in terms of patience,” said Pelosi.  Pelosi knew Job personally.  Next week's claims:  Obama is wiser than Solomon and clocks more miles than Moses.

HOW SWEET IT MAY BE – Television news organizations, especially CNN and NBC, have been relishing the revelations that News Corporation, which owns the very hot Fox News, is in trouble because reporters working for one of its tabloids hacked into private telephones to get stories.  This is a scandal involving journalistic ethics.  Yet, strangely, I have yet to hear a single, traditionally required line in any network or cable newscast informing viewers that Fox News is a competitor, and that the network or cable system may have a financial interest in the story if Fox is weakened.  You'd think someone would have noticed, and corrected the lapse.  I guess ethics are for the other guy.

WILL THEY TAKE AWAY OBAMA'S CREDIT CARD? – Moody's said it yesterday, now Standard & Poor's is warning that the country's credit rating may be lowered if it doesn't put its fiscal house in order and make sure its debt obligations are met.  Did you ever think you'd see the United States in this position?  I guess the president won't get any more of those "you're pre-approved" letters from Bank of America.  No way to live.

July 14, 2011       Permalink

AT IT AGAIN – AT 10:37 P.M. ET:  Reader Joseph J. Gallick alerts us to this story reporting that Osama bin Laden, late of Abottabad, Pakistan, was plotting a new attack against America when he was biologically inconvenienced by Navy SEALS.  From The Wall Street Journal:

Osama bin Laden was working to assemble a team of militants to attack the U.S. on the 10th anniversary of the Sept. 11 hijackings, according to communications that Navy SEALs seized from his Pakistani hideout when they killed the al Qaeda leader this spring.

Bin Laden and his operations chief, Attiyah Abd al-Rahman, swapped views about the composition of the attack team, with bin Laden repeatedly rejecting names that Mr. Rahman suggested, according to U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence taken from the bin Laden compound.

The plans were only in the discussion phase, American officials said. They have not seen any signs that the nascent plot ever went beyond the early planning, the officials said.

Still, earlier this month in his first meeting with senior staff at the Central Intelligence Agency, acting Director Michael Morell told his staff that one of their top priorities would be to make sure neither that plan nor any others were carried out.

Plans for an anniversary attack were one of the few specific potential threats to emerge from the trove of documents and other materials taken from bin Laden's residence in Abottabad, Pakistan, in the May 2 raid.

Much of the other threat information in the trove of materials was general in nature and well known, such as al Qaeda's interest in attacking trains.

COMMENT:  This simply demonstrates that the war on terror is a long war, and that we're bound, eventually, to suffer some setbacks in the form of successful operations carried out against us.  There is an attempt by some in Washington to argue that bin Laden's death means we can hasten our withdrawal from Afghanistan.  It means nothing of the kind because Al Qaeda lives on, just as the Japanese military lived on, even after the assassination, by American pilots, of its leading admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto, in 1943.  Al Qaeda is based on an ideology.

I'm sure all American intelligence assets will be on special alert during the September 11th memorial period.

Reader Gallick also alert us to the indictment of one Emerson Winfield Begolly, of New Bethelehem, Pennsylvania, for "allegedly soliciting Islamic extremists to engage in acts of terrorism within the United States and posting bomb-making instruction materials online."  Another nice, cuddly guy.  The FBI press release is here. 

Eternal vigilance, friends.  Eternal vigilance.

July 14, 2011      Permalink

WOULD SOMEONE GIVE OBAMA A MEMO ON THIS? – AT 10:02 A.M. ET:  Exciting and inspiring, this is an example of your government at work.  From the Washington Post:

The Department of Homeland Security plans to spend more than $300 million over the next four years on radiation-detection equipment that has not been fully tested and may not work, according to a budget request and an unreleased report by the Government Accountability Office.

The department’s plan is the latest in a series of efforts involving the troubled Advanced Spectroscopic Portal machine, which was touted by the George W. Bush administration as an advanced way to prevent the importation of radioactive materials that could be used in a nuclear or dirty bomb.

In January, the National Academy of Sciences released a report that found there was no way to know whether the machines, known as ASPs, worked as promised. An academy panel found that in promoting the machines to Congress, the department’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office had presented its findings “in ways that are incorrect and potentially misleading.”

That report followed the department’s decision to abandon plans to use ASPs for primary screening at ports and borders because of such questions.

Now, the nuclear detection office said it intends to buy up to 400 ASPs by 2016, according the office’s budget request, even though the department has not fulfilled internal requirements to conduct an independent review of the results of ASP testing before buying the equipment, according to the new GAO report.

COMMENT:  Hmm, one wonders which lobbyists were involved, which members of Congress, and which campaign contributors.  But of course I'm being cynical.  Not.

I hope the article made you feel safer.  As for me, on my next trip I'm going by horse and buggy.

July 14, 2011      Permalink

AMERICANS THUMBS DOWN ON THE FUTURE – A new survey shows a remarkable level of pessimism among the American people.  It reminds us of American attitudes in the late 70s, during the presidency of that great visionary and spiritual leader, Jimmy Carter (choke). 

(Reuters) - Americans are deeply pessimistic about the future as economic concerns rise and White House talks on raising the U.S. debt limit sputter, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track rose to 63 percent this month, up from 60 percent in June, with stubbornly high unemployment and prolonged gridlock in Washington dashing hopes of a swift economic recovery.

But voters do not appear to be holding President Barack Obama responsible for the problems so far. Obama's approval rating held relatively steady at 49 percent, down 1 percentage point from June. His approval rating among independents -- a group Obama needs to win re-election -- fell to 39 percent from 44 percent.

That 49% overall approval rating, as opposed to Obama's 39% approval among independents, reflects the president's almost fanatically loyal base, whose support for Obama is cultural.

Obama's standing could deteriorate quickly if the economy does not begin to generate jobs and if Washington cannot show it is capable of solving problems, Ipsos pollster Julie Clark said.

COMMENT:  One of Ronald Reagan's greatest accomplishments, not mentioned enough, is that he restored the national morale.  Maintaining faith was also one of FDR's great gifts.  (FDR was actually Reagan's role model.)  Both men were incurable optimists, which may tell us something about the kind of person the GOP must nominate next year.  Americans admire what I like to call the honest optimist – someone who tells them bluntly what conditions actually are, but also tells them that it's always morning in America, that we can do whatever we are challenged to do. 

July 14, 2011       Permalink

JOBS FIGURES STILL GRIM – AT 9:11 A.M. ET:  Despite the AP's attempt to put a positive spin on it in its lead, jobs figures just released are still grim:

WASHINGTON -- Fewer people sought unemployment benefits last week, an encouraging sign the job market may be slowly improving.

Weekly applications dropped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 405,000, the Labor Department said, the lowest level in almost three months.

The government said the total was increased by 11,500 state workers from Minnesota, who have filed applications because of that state's government shutdown.

Even with last week's decline, applications have now topped 400,000 for 14 weeks, evidence that the job market has weakened since earlier this year.

Took four paragraphs to get to that point.  Any number over 400,000 is considered very bad.

The economy added only 18,000 net jobs in June, the second straight month of dismal hiring. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, the highest this year. That's far below the average job gains of 215,000 per month in the February-April period.

COMMENT:  And yet, Obama's approval numbers are still hovering in the mid-forties, not good, but not terrible.  He has a built-in constituency.  The economy will probably determine the results of next year's election, but expect the Dems to run an ugly campaign to whip up the base and take attention away from the Obama record, to the degree that there is one. 

July 14, 2011       Permalink

WRONG WAY TO SAVE – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  The Defense Department should not be immune to funding cuts, where appropriate, but cutting into the bone is foolish and irresponsible.   The Hill reports that the Navy may have to do just that:

The Navy could be forced to slash its annual budget by $10 billion as the Pentagon pares its spending, defense insiders tell The Hill.

White House officials have ordered the Pentagon to begin slashing its budget starting in 2013 to meet President Obama’s goal of $400 billion in national security cuts.

Amazing how efficient the White House is in pushing for defense cuts.

With the service facing a possible cut approaching $12 billion, weapons program cuts are on the table.

“One option under active consideration for most of the year has been to delay construction of the second aircraft carrier in the Ford class from 2013 to 2015,” Thompson said.

House Armed Services Readiness subcommittee Chairman Randy Forbes (R-Va.) said the Navy also is considering removing another aircraft carrier from its long-term shipbuilding plan.

Real smart, at a time when the Chinese navy is being built up and our own fleet is aging.  Many of the ships built during the Reagan buildup of the 1980s will be approaching the end of their useful life sometime in this decade.  Cutting shipbuilding is exactly the wrong way to go.

The carrier moves, if enacted, would “severely impact” defense firms that build the big warships and their many subcontractors and parts suppliers...

Not a brilliant move for the economy either.  Defense procurement, when done wisely, is a great benefit to the economy and to job creation.  It gets American assembly lines going.  Obama was advised, when he came to office, to turn to defense spending as an economic stimulus.  The military needed, and still needs, a great deal of equipment to replace that lost or worn out in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Obama, probably for ideological reasons, ignored the advice.

July 14, 2011     Permalink

JULY 13,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

GOP SINKING IN DEBT TALKS – Apprehension is growing, as noted by A.B. Stoddard and Charles Krauthammer on Fox this evening, that the Republicans are losing control of the public narrative over the debt negotiations.  President Obama apparently stormed out of those talks today, in another adolescent outburst, but there's a feeling that he can shape the public perception to make Republicans look like rigid, selfish ideologists, interested more in politics and protecting their wealthy friends than in the nation.  The worriers are right.  Republicans are losing control, the party is divided, and the press will support Obama no matter what.  Frankly, the GOP's most influential negotiator, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, may lack the skills to control such a high-stakes negotiation.  The best solution may be a series of temporary measures to take us through the 2012 election, after which the parties can negotiate without electoral politics hanging over their heads.

NBC APOLOGIZES – NBC has now formally apologized to members of Congress for recently airing a recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance with the words "under God" taken out.  NBC conceded "a serious error in judgment" by a "small group of people" who have been "reprimanded."  But NBC misunderstands the issue.  The real question in play how a "small group of people" at a major network could make this mistake without realizing it was a mistake.  NBC, and other networks, have problems in the kinds of people they hire.  At one time networks understood the need to show respect for the nation and its basic values.  That understanding has faded with the years. 

OH THE AGONY, OH THE PAIN –  You've probably been reading about the big press scandal in Britain.  Rupert 
Murdoch's News Corporation, which also owns Fox News and the Wall Street Journal here, is being hammered because journalists at its London tabloid, News of the World, apparently hacked into the phones of news sources and ordinary citizens to get scoops.  As soon as the scandal broke, Murdoch closed News of the World, an extraordinary and commendable step.  But critics are unrelenting, and liberals here are now demanding a probe, without any evidence, to see if News Corporation engaged in the unsavory practice here.  No one is defending the hacking, but if you think this anguished uproar is about phone taps, I have a tax increase I'd like to sell you.  It's about Murdoch's conservative politics and the wish of the left to destroy Fox News.  The New York Times, a direct competitor to The Wall Street Journal, and CNN, a direct competitor to Fox News, are particularly delighted by the scandal, featuring it prominently every day.  The New York Times, of course, used classified information to "expose" a critical anti-terror program, and CNN made a deal with Saddam Hussein to go easy on him in exchange for access.  Where was the uproar in either case?

HOW TIMES CHANGE – Topps, the company that makes baseball trading cards, is creating a card for Christian Lopez, the guy who caught Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit, a home run.  I remember, as a kid, how we would buy packs of Topps gum for a nickel, throw away the gum, and keep the trading cards, always hoping we'd get a Brooklyn Dodger in the pack for that nickel.  Now we get...fans?  What comes next, the attendee who survived the most rain-outs?  Hey, I'll trade you a Christian Lopez for two cards with the rain-out guy.  My dream – a card honoring the parking-lot attendant who dented the most fenders.  You never know.  In 2045, that could be the hot one. 

July 13, 2011       Permalink

NEW ATTACKS IN MUMBAI – AT 10:36 P.M. ET:  Some 21 people were killed in terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, today.  In November, 2008, the city was the target of terrorist attacks that killed 166 people.  From the Washington Post:

NEW DELHI — Three blasts ripped through Mumbai during rush hour Wednesday evening, killing at least 21 people and injuring more than 110, Indian officials said. The explosions, which officials described as a terrorist attack, targeted crowded areas of the city, India’s financial capital.

“The blasts occurred at about 6:45 p.m., within minutes of one other. Therefore, we infer that this was a coordinated attack by terrorists,” said P. Chidambaram, India’s home minister, speaking in New Delhi...

...One obvious suspect in the attacks Wednesday is Lashkar-i-Taiba, a violent Islamist group that Pakistan once sponsored as a proxy army against India and that is suspected of being behind the 2008 attacks, said former CIA officer Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Another strong possibility, he said, would be an Indian-based Muslim extremist group, such as the Indian Mujahideen, which has been linked in the past to smaller-scale bombings.

“This one’s fairly hard to place,” Riedel said. “It has elements of sophistication, with multiple targets and coordinated attacks, which could suggest Lashkar, but it doesn’t have the large-scale ambition you saw in the 2008 attacks.”

COMMENT:  The blasts come at a time when American relations with Pakistan are at a low point, and this event won't improve them.  Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers.  The attacks highlight the ability of terrorists to influence world events, even with small assaults.  If the blasts are traced to an Islamic group, as appears likely, they will also show that militant Islam is maintaining its violent pressure on free nations, pressure that will only increase amidst instability in the Arab world and Iran's march toward a nuclear weapon.

At the same time, a new poll shows American prestige declining in the Arab world.  From Nile Gardiner in London's Telegraph:

Today’s eye-opening Zogby poll for the Arab American Institute Foundation should be a wake-up call to the White House on its failing foreign policy. After two and a half years of bashing Israel, appeasing rogue regimes such as Iran and Syria, and promising a new era of relations with the Muslim world, Washington is now less popular in major Arab countries than it was when George W. Bush was in the White House.

Weakness doesn't sell.  We can only contemplate the damage Obama can do if he is given a second term, and can run wild without the need to plan for reelection.

July 13, 2011       Permalink

IRAN GETS EVEN MORE SCARY – AT 9:44 A.M. ET:  We have taken our eyes off the ball and are wrapped up in domestic financial issues, but the Iranians are pushing ahead, just as the Nazis did during our Great Depression.  The result may, for our children, be the same: 

(Reuters) - Iran is preparing to install centrifuges for higher-grade uranium enrichment in an underground bunker, diplomatic sources say, a development that is likely to add to Western worries about Tehran's atomic aims.

Yeah, I'd say so.  When you work in underground bunkers, it usually isn't to produce power to charge iPads.

Preparatory work is under way at the Fordow facility, tucked deep inside a mountain to protect it against any attacks, and machines used to refine uranium could soon be moved to the site near the clerical city of Qom, the sources said.

MacArthur said that all defeats begin with two words:  Too late.  I'm afraid it may be too late to stop Iran's nuclear weapon.  Obama has certainly been effective, hasn't he? 

The Islamic Republic said in June it would shift production of uranium enriched to 20 percent purity to Fordow from its main Natanz plant this year and triple output capacity, in a defiant response to charges that it is trying to make atomic bombs.

Tehran only disclosed the existence of Fordow two years ago after Western intelligence detected it and said it was evidence of covert nuclear activities. The facility has yet to start operating.

"They are preparing (for the centrifuges to be installed) in Fordow," one diplomatic source said.

Refined uranium can be used to fuel nuclear power reactors and also, if enriched to much higher levels, provide material for atomic arms.

COMMENT:  And what will our response be?  Well, among other things, Germany seems to be maintaining, and even increasing, its commercial trade with Iran.  And the Obama administration has hardly reacted at all. 

Iran is aiming to be the dominant power in the region.  At the present rate, it will probably succeed.  Which is one more powerful argument for denying the inept Obama a second catastrophic term.

July 13, 2011      Permalink

BUT BARACK IS ROLLING IN BUCKS – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:   New financial reports show a stunning haul for the president.  From The Politico:

The Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised a combined $86 million between April and June, blowing past the $60 million goal set by both groups at the start of the fundraising quarter.

Obama campaign manager Jim Messina announced the total in a video released before dawn Wednesday, touting the 552,462 donors who contributed and claiming “more grassroots support at this point in the process than any campaign in political history.”

“We did this from the bottom up. We didn’t accept one single dollar from Washington lobbyists or special interest PACs,” Messina said. “We have reason to be proud of what we’ve built so far … Your job, my job, our job is to bring more people into this campaign.”

Of the $86 million raised, Messina said over $47 million went into the coffers of Obama for America and more than $38 million went to the DNC. The average donation was $69.

The $86 million raised for Obama’s reelection easily doubles – and nearly triples – all the major GOP candidates to announce so far, combined.

COMMENT:   Some may wonder why a president who really isn't doing very well can raise so much.  Well, first off, he's the president.  And presidents have built-in fundraising clout.  Second, Barack Obama is a cultural phenomenon.  There are so many Americans who've bought into his "dream" that they can't stand the idea of his being escorted out of the White House by the voters.  He's "our Barack," the symbol of a certain portion of the sixties generation and its cultural allies. 

Republicans must divide their current fundraising efforts among many candidates, and the list may even expand.  I have confidence they will ultimately do well in the fundraising business.  But for now Obama is still the star in the bank-deposit sweepstakes.

July 13, 2011        Permalink 

MICHELE SURGES – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  A new Quinnipiac poll out this morning shows a surge for Michele Bachmann, who clearly is catching on in conservative circles.  From The Politico:

Michele Bachmann's polling surge isn't just for the early primary states: A Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows the Minnesotan is now in second place nationally, taking 14 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney's 25 percent. Bachmann's support has more than doubled since June 8, when she was in sixth place with 6 percent of the vote.

Quinnipiac's results confirm, once again, that there's a big appetite among GOP voters for a more conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. Following Bachmann in the poll are two non-candidates: Sarah Palin, in third place with 12 percent of the vote, and Rick Perry, in fourth place with 10 percent.

Perry's number is, in some ways, just as striking as Bachmann's, given that he hasn't actually entered the presidential race and isn't as universally known.

The rest of the field appears to be spinning its wheels. Here's the rest of the lineup: Herman Cain at 6 percent, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5 percent, Tim Pawlenty and 3 percent, and Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman and Thaddeus McCotter at 1 percent or less.

Especially in light of Bachmann's quick rise, it's getting to be past the point where the back-of-the-back candidates can say it's still too soon for their numbers to be cause for concern.

COMMENT:  Stories circulating say that Rick Perry hasn't yet made up his mind whether to run, and that he is still concerned whether he can build an organization and raise the cash this late in the game.  He has apparently, if sources are to be believed, given himself until Labor Day, start of September, to make a final decision.

July 13, 2011     Permalink

CALIFORNIA DREAMIN' – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  Results are in for the special congressional election in Los Angeles to fill the seat vacated by Democrat Jane Harman.  The Republican guy put up a superb fight in the safe Democratic district.  In the end, his dream wasn't realized, but he cut dramatically into Democratic strength, and Dems cannot be rejoicing this morning.  From AP, via Fox:

LOS ANGELES – Democrat Janice Hahn defeated Republican Craig Huey in a bitter contest for a Southern California House seat Tuesday, preserving the party's hold on the district and surviving an unusually tough race in a Democratic stronghold.

With 100% of precincts reporting, Hahn, a Los Angeles city councilwoman, had 41,585 votes, or about 55 percent, to 34,636, or about 45 percent, for Huey, who owns marketing and advertising companies and largely bankrolled his campaign with nearly $900,000 in personal funds.

With a light turnout and widespread voter anxiety over the economy, Republicans were hoping for an upset that would send a message heading toward the 2012 national elections, in which President Barack Obama will seek a second term.

But Hahn's victory was far from impressive, given an 18-point Democratic registration edge in the 36th Congressional District, which runs from the famous Venice boardwalk through the beach communities south of Los Angeles International Airport.

COMMENT:  Huey cut the traditional Democratic margin almost in half, especially impressive since Hahn is from one of the best-known political families in Los Angeles.  Her brother was mayor.  Maybe something big is happening out there, maybe not.  But Republicans can at least claim a kind of moral victory in L.A. today.  Any GOP good news in L.A. is news indeed. 

July 13, 2011     Permalink