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AT OUR LATEST ANGEL'S CORNER:  READERS BLOG ABOUT THE DANGER OF RECKLESS DEFENSE CUTS; THE PROBLEM OF REPUBLICAN MODESTY; THE MOUTH OF JANE FONDA; AND THE MOUTH OF BARACK OBAMA; ASSIGNING BLAME IN THE DEBT DEBATE; SKEPTICISM ABOUT POLLING; AND MR. PARKINSON'S LAWS

JULY 22,  2011

BULLETIN – NORWAY – AT 10:53 P.M. ET:  Norwegian police now say more than 80 kids were murdered by the gunman who attacked them at a politically related outing earlier today.  Presumably, this same individual, some time before, set off a huge bomb outside the building housing the prime minister's office.

COMMENT:  This is getting awfully strange.  Why did it take police so many hours to admit to such a huge casualty toll?  Before this announcement we were told that 17 were dead.  That's quite a difference, 80 plus as opposed to 17.

Also, how does one man kill 80 people...and then get captured so easily?  We have eyewitness reports that say the kids scattered as soon as the shooting started.   Was there an accomplice?

We wrote below that the "sole gunman" scenario, which apparently is being pushed by unidentified Norwegian "officials," is awfully convenient for a government that never took terrorism seriously, and was criticized for it by American security experts. 

News reports say the police claim the one man in custody has "right-wing" sympathies.  Let's see, and let's see what they mean by "right wing."

There's a lot of explaining to do.

July 22, 2011       Permalink

NORWAY – SECOND UPDATE – AT 9:16 P.M. ET:  Norwegian authorities are now suggesting that today's terror attacks were the work of one man acting alone – setting off the bomb in Oslo, then traveling to the youth camp and opening fire on kids.  He is described as a 32-year-old Norwegian.

Obviously, this is an initial report.  It could very well turn out to be true, and we are prepared to accept that if the evidence is there.  So far, we haven't seen any evidence.  Who is he?  What does he believe?  Where would he have gotten the expertise to build so large and sophisticated a bomb?  A number of reports say that he traveled to the island where he murdered those kids by ferry, carrying guns, apparently in a package of some kind.  But reports quoting authorities also say that explosives were found on the island.  Was he carrying these, too?  Must have been a big package.

We learned from British sources today that the United States has been intensely frustrated with Norway's casual attitude toward terror, especially true of its current goofball left-wing government.  Just a day before the attacks, Norway's foreign minister advocated opening talks with Al Qaeda in Somalia.  There is no end to the Norwegian government's willingness to talk to anyone, with no result.

With a policy background like that, a finding that the terror attacks were the work of a lone killer is ideal.  No terrorist connection.  No complications with the Muslim world.  No nasty stuff about local fascist groups to drive away tourists.  Already the attacks are being called Norway's "Oklahoma City."  You know, a homegrown nutbag.

But I've always felt that the Oklahoma City investigation was itself a bit too convenient.  Some enterprising reporters found very odd connections, they claimed, between the convicted Oklahoma City bombers and foreign elements.  But the reports were disparaged by Washington. 

We will wait for the Norwegian investigation.  The press over there is the standard, garden-variety left-wing type, so don't hold your breath for any tough questions.  But I hope that some energetic international journalists will shadow the probe and do their own investigating.  I don't go for conspiracy theories, but I will describe myself as skeptical that one man could pull off two sophisticated attacks in the same day, using a well-designed car bomb.  The methods he used – the car bomb, dressing in a policeman's uniform – fit in very well with the methods used by terror groups in a number of Mideast and Asian countries.

Ask questions.

July 22, 2011       Permalink

NORWAY UPDATE – AT 4:20 P.M. ET:  Reports remain sketchy, and some unconfirmed, but it appears the casualty list in Norway will grow dramatically.  There were two incidents – a huge bombing in Oslo, and a lone gunman opening fire at a politically connected youth camp on an island near Oslo.  There are these developments:

Eyewitnesses say they saw at least 20 bodies floating in the water off the island where the shooting attack occurred.  Since the island housed a youth camp, these would almost certainly be young people.

A report broadcast by CNN, but unconfirmed, says that the gunman who opened fire was also seen in the vicinity of the Oslo blast earlier in the day.

Most surprising, CNN is also reporting that the gunman has been captured, and is described as a tall, Nordic-looking man, not Middle Eastern or Asian.  This is unconfirmed, and may or may not be significant.  Norway has been concerned about home-grown terrorism, but the concern apparently centers on Norwegians linked to Islamist organizations.

Stand by.

July 22, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN:  TERROR IN NORWAY – AT 2:03 P.M. ET:  We are closely following the terror attack in Oslo, Norway, today.  A huge bomb went off in or near the building housing the prime minister's office.  The prime minister is safe, but there are many casualties on the street.  Late reports say at least seven have been killed, but we caution about using specific numbers this early in an event.

At the same time, there has been a shooting at a youth camp run by the prime minister's leftist party, on an island near Oslo.  There are casualties, but we don't have details.  Initial police response is that the bomb and shooting are linked.  There is a report that the shooter has been captured, but it is unconfirmed.

It's important for readers to get past the image of Norway as another sweet Scandinavian country.  The Scandinavian nations have different cultures and often dramatically different political styles.  Although a member of NATO, Norway has a problematical political past.  An uncomfortable number of Norwegians sided with the Nazis before and during World War II.  The term "Quisling," meaning traitor, comes from the fact that Nazi-occupied Norway was administered by a Norwegian politician by that name.

The Nobel Peace Prize is given in Oslo, the only Nobel Prize not given in Sweden.  When it was given to Jimmy Carter, members of the prize committee made it clear it was a "kick in the shins," as one put it, to George W. Bush.  While Norway has some troops in Afghanistan, and has participated in the Libya operation, its government is notably aloof to Israel, and anti-Semitism has become a serious problem, especially in its universities.  It is a complex nation.

Recently, an Iraqi cleric in some legal trouble in Norway threatened to kill Norwegians.  An Islamist group has already taken credit for today's attacks, but there is no evidence that the claim is truthful.

Stand by.

July 22, 2011       Permalink

AND A WARNING FROM HISTORY – AT 10:07 A.M. ET:  We have warned here at Urgent Agenda that our understandable preoccupation with the economy is diverting our eyes from foreign policy.  When, for example, did you read the last thoughtful story about Iran and its threat to its region and the world?  We really don't seem to care much any longer.  George McGovern's shortsighted, cynical cry, "Come home America!" is finally taking hold in some precincts...including some conservative precints.  Believe me, conservatives on particular occasions can be just as cynical and depressing as liberals. 

There's a new book out by historian Erik Larson, "In the Garden of Beasts: Love, Terror, and an American Family in Hitler's Berlin."  In the book, Larson traces the experience of the American ambassador to Berlin, William E. Dodd, and his daughter, Martha, as they arrived in the city in 1933, enthusiastic about the revolutionary atmosphere, only later to be repelled by Hitler's bestiality.  In a recent interview, Larson reflected on the feeling, often expressed, that President Franklin D. Roosevelt could have done more to battle Hitler in the early 30s, when Nazi Germany was still weak:

It's very easy, from the perspective of today, with the power of hindsight, to say, Roosevelt should have been more courageous. What would it have cost him, in 1933, to get out there in public and attack Hitler openly in a powerful speech? But, back in '33-'34, the nation was locked in the Depression, and the political opposition to Roosevelt was really pretty intense. The isolationists were really gaining steam - no one wanted another war. Hindsight says, yeah, he could have done something. And who knows, it could have had a powerful effect, because Hitler was very sensitive to public opinion in this period, as was the entire Reich hierarchy. And the best evidence of this is how persistently they sought to end that mock trial [of Hitler organized by the American Jewish Congress in 1934] in New York, and how furious that made them. But we can't really appreciate the depths of fear and personal distress that existed at that time. Roosevelt's priority was to get this country back on track fiscally and economically. Anything that would put that off was to be completely avoided.

COMMENT:  History doesn't repeat itself, but the psychology of history does.  It's what we normally call human nature.  Right now Americans are, once again, worried about their jobs, their children's education, what will become of spouses and other family members if they die.  Foreign threats, brought home to us so vividly on September 11, 2001, are fading in priority.  The attacks occurred 10 years ago.

But those foreign threats are not going to recede simply because many Americans want to ignore them, or put them off.  Dwight D. Eisenhower, in his farewell address to the nation, the famous "industrial-military complex" speech, did indeed warn of the dangers of that complex, but he did so in the context of asserting the need for it.  And one reason for that need, Eisenhower said, was that new forms of warfare did not give us the luxury of time to mobilize.  (See post on China just below.)  Americans forget that most of our mobilization for World War II occurred during the war, between late 1941 and 1943.  We will not have that luxury next time.

The psychology of history is now repeating itself.   We ask questions about Roosevelt.  But in that different time, Roosevelt was able to lead the nation successfully through a world war because he had the gift of time.  Will the same questions be asked of a contemporary American president?  Will the answers be the same, or tragically different?

July 22, 2011       Permalink

ANOTHER WARNING FROM CHINA – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  While we contemplate major cuts in defense procurement, China is forging ahead.  Let us not forget that we experienced four large military drawdowns in the 20th century, and lived to regret all of them.  From first-rate military reporter Bill Gertz, at the Washington Times:

China's military is developing electromagnetic pulse weapons that Beijing plans to use against U.S. aircraft carriers in any future conflict over Taiwan, according to an intelligence report made public on Thursday.

I guarantee you that most Americans today don't know where Taiwan is, or think it's the name of a new Korean sports car.

Portions of a National Ground Intelligence Center study on the lethal effects of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and high-powered microwave (HPM) weapons revealed that the arms are part of China's so-called "assassin's mace" arsenal - weapons that allow a technologically inferior China to defeat U.S. military forces.

EMP weapons mimic the gamma-ray pulse caused by a nuclear blast that knocks out all electronics, including computers and automobiles, over wide areas. The phenomenon was discovered in 1962 after an aboveground nuclear test in the Pacific disabled electronics in Hawaii...

..."For use against Taiwan, China could detonate at a much lower altitude (30 to 40 kilometers) ... to confine the EMP effects to Taiwan and its immediate vicinity and minimize damage to electronics on the mainland," the report said.

And...

According to the report, China's electronic weapons are part of what are called "trump card" or "assassin's mace" weapons that "are based on new technology that has been developed in high secrecy."

"Trump card would be applicable if the Chinese have developed new low-yield, possibly enhanced, EMP warheads, while assassin's mace would apply if older warheads are employed," the report said.

COMMENT:  As one of our knowledgeable readers wrote at our Angel's Corner, it takes vastly greater time to develop weapons systems in the modern era than in, say, the 1940s.  We are making a terrible mistake if we cut important defense programs to save a little money up front.  We will wind up spending much more in the future to catch up...unless the cuts prove fatal.  We've been close before.

July 22, 2011       Permalink

IS IT WORSE FOR OBAMA? – AT 9:02 A.M. ET:  Is it possible that President Obama is in even worse political shape than his numbers indicate?  Yes, according to a Democratic pollster.  From the Washington Times:

A Democratic polling firm said President Obama's already weak job-approval numbers are "worse than they appear" and he likely would lose the election if it were held today.

For the first time in a year, Mr. Obama does not lead former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Public Policy Polling's monthly national poll on the 2012 presidential race. They are tied at 45 percent, and Mr. Obama is losing among independent voters by a margin of 49 percent to 44 percent.

Worse for Mr. Obama, PPP said, the "vast majority" of undecideds disapprove of the president's performance. The survey of registered voters was conducted July 15-17.

"There's a very good chance Barack Obama would lose if he had to stand for re-election today," said Dean Debnam, president of PPP. "This is his worst poll standing in a long time, and he really needs the economy to start turning around."

In an interview this week with a Kansas City, Mo., TV station, Mr. Obama said the election will be more about his record than the platform of the eventual Republican nominee.

"Americans understand that we didn't get into this problem overnight," Mr. Obama told KMBC-TV, one of three interviews he gave to regional TV outlets at the White House on Wednesday. "If next November they feel like I've ... been working as hard as I can and have been getting some things done to move us in the right direction, then I'll win. If they don't, then I'll lose."

COMMENT:  But Republicans should start wondering why a president who's been such an obvious failure is still in such close contention.  One reason, as we've noted here, is that his core support is fanatical, almost religious.  Obama is, after all, a cultural icon, not just for African-Americans, but for a certain kind of liberal for whom symbolism is more important than results.  The second reason is that the GOP does not yet have an obvious winner in its presidential contender ranks.  A coming televised debate, just before the Iowa straw poll, may start to thin things out and focus attention on a few potential victors. 

July 22, 2011      Permalink

"WE'RE HAVIN' A HEAT WAVE, A TROPICAL HEAT WAVE" – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  We thank Irving Berlin for the words to our headline.  The weather people forecast 100 degrees here in New York today.  Al Gore is in his glory.  Maybe he can stand at subway entrances and hand out free thermometers as well as free DVD's of his film, "An Inconvenient Truth."

But hot weather is a time when memory is called for.  While we await the inevitable assertions that global warming is upon us, please recall that we have hot hotter days and weeks, before "climate change" was all the rage.  I recall walking through Central Park when the temperature sign on a nearby building read 104.  And let us not forget the dust bowl that struck in the Midwest and Southwest in the 1930s, adding to the economic woes of farmers.  And it wasn't many weeks ago when I was trekking through part of Manhattan during a bitter winter cold snap, one of the worst we've seen in years.

The seasons change and this will pass.  Within five months you'll see stories about the rising price of home heating oil, and the heating needs of the elderly. 

So, please stay cool.  Drink plenty of water (although it was probably contaminated by CHENEY (!!!!), and don't draw too many instant conclusions over the state of the Earth.

July 22, 2011     Permalink

JULY 21,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

VULGARITY IN IRAN – Good friends Susan Kohen and Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi alert us to an Iranian tragedy.  A 32-year-old evangelical Christian pastor has been ordered by the regime to renounce his Christian faith or face execution.  This is one of a number of measures the regime has taken to crack down on Christianity within Iran.  And the pastor's lawyer has now been sentenced to prison by the authorities for daring to defend his client.  Note please the deep interest in these outrages by "intellectuals" in the West.  Sure.  They're more interested in whether the prisoners at Guantanamo get enough TV's and hi-fi systems.

SOME PEOPLE STAY TOO LONG – Mayor Mike Bloomberg of New York, a billionaire, has a certain daffiness that's come out more and more, as he pursues his third term as mayor.   One gets the feeling that most New Yorkers feel he's stayed in his chair a bit too long.  It has been announced that hizzoner will donate $50-million to a campaign to eliminate coal-fired power plants.  I'm not kidding you.  That's apparently the best cause Mayor Mike could find for 50 mil.  He might have considered giving $50-million in scholarships to the children of middle-aged workers laid off because of the financial shenanigans of the crony capitalists Bloomberg has known most of his life.  He could have asked them to match his gift.  But I guess we'll all sleep better knowing the mayor is on the coal patrol.

ANOTHER HOLLYWOOD BLUNDER – Yeah, I guess the golden age of Hollywood is truly over.  A new film for the young has just opened:  "Captain America:  The First Avenger."  It's set during World War II, and first reports say it gives a "nuanced" view of Adolf Hitler.  A nuanced view?  Apparently so.  And it's also apparent from the less than hardline denunciation of Hitler that the restraint was due to not wanting to offend the large German market.  Reportedly, Hollywood marketers think there's some nostalgia going on over there.  Next, look for a film depicting vicious American sailors attacking peaceful Japanese tourist planes over Pearl Harbor.  I always knew there was another side to the story.

NORTH CAROLINA WEAK FOR OBAMA – Obama carried the state in 2008.  North Carolina has changed over the years, with a large influx of researchers and suspicious northern types.  But the liberal trend may be ebbing.  Obama's job approval has dropped 14 points since May, with some 52% now expressing disapproval and 44% feeling positive about the president.  North Carolina, however, still has a large African-American population that is loyal to Obama.  Independents are fleeing him, though, with some 60% expressing disapproval. 

July 21, 2011     Permalink

TINY TIM – AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota, and candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, is not having a good week.  From the Daily Caller:

As a result of Tim Pawlenty’s poor performance in its latest national poll, Public Policy Polling will no longer include the former Minnesota governor on the list of candidates it polls in a direct match-up against President Barack Obama at the state level. Pawlenty will still be included in PPP’s Republican primary polls.

PPP is set to release the results of its national poll this week. Teasing those results on Monday, Tom Jensen, PPP’s director, tweeted: “Rick Perry debuts in our national polling at 12%. Will replace Pawlenty in our state level general election polls because T-Paw is now 8th.”

He later clarified to The Daily Caller that Pawlenty was “only being dropped from our general election polling at the state level [from] the people we test against Obama. That’s limited to the top 5 in our national polling. He’ll still be in the Republican primary polling.”

COMMENT:  Pawlenty is a decent, competent guy, but his quiet personality counts against him, and doesn't have much cred with Republican primary voters.   He is being outdistanced by fellow Minnesotan, Michele Bachmann.  When Rick Perry gets into the race, I suspect Pawlenty will pretty much disappear. 

And then there's Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah, and Obama's ambassador to China, who announced his candidacy recently.  Anyone see him around?

July 21, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:

BEIJING (AP) -- At first, it looks like a sleek Apple store. Sales assistants in blue T-shirts with the company's logo chat to customers. Signs advertising the iPad 2 hang from the white walls. Outside, the famous logo sits next to the words "Apple Store."  And that's the clue it's fake.  China, long known for producing counterfeit consumer gadgets, software and brand name clothing, has reached a new piracy milestone -- fake Apple stores.

Milestone?  Are they kidding?  They're nowhere near us.  Fake Apple Store?  We have a fake president.  Take that, China!  When you develop your own version of Barack Obama, give us a call...on an iPhone.

THIS WILL NOT HELP OBAMA'S APPROVAL – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  The new weekly jobless claims figures are out, and they follow a familiar, depressing pattern:

More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting the volatility of applications during the annual auto-plant retooling period.

Applications for jobless benefits increased 10,,000 in the week ended July 16 to 418,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 410,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The data included about 1,750 additional job cuts due to the Minnesota government shutdown, the agency said.

Employers have been reluctant to hire more workers over the past two months on concern the recovery was slowing and growing unease over stalled negotiations to extend the federal debt ceiling and reduce the budget deficit. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said recent data showed “continuing weakness” in the labor market.

Any number above 400,000 is considered grim. 

Job gains have slowed in the past two months, raising concern about the durability of a labor market recovery. Payrolls expanded by 18,000 workers last month, the smallest gain since September, after increasing by 25,000 in May, Labor Department data showed July 8. The jobless rate climbed to 9.2 percent, the highest this year.
Banks and manufacturers are among companies still cutting jobs.

COMMENT:  What will Obama say?  Will he blame it on BUSH (!!)?  CHENEY (!!!!)?  This is the worst economic climate that we've seen in the lifetime of many of us.  There does not appear to be any reason to expect good news in the near future.  And it's perfectly obvious from a variety of news reports that the business community has lost faith in the Obama administration.  We also face a rise, not a decline, in foreign threats.

We've sure had change we can believe in.

July 21, 2011       Permalink

OBAMA'S CONSISTENTLY TROUBLING APPROVAL RATINGS – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  Andrew Malcolm of the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog has a sharp historical analysis of the president's approval ratings:

Great news for President Obama's never-ending, billion-dollar reelection campaign: His job approval rating didn't get any worse last quarter.

Of course, they're still not all that great -- they've averaged below 50% for most of his 912-day-old presidency.  In the quarter between April 20 and July 19, Gallup reports this morning, the Democrat averaged a 46.8% job approval.

It could be worse; Obama's seventh quarter average was only 44.7%.

But he's a long way from what now seems like the halcyon days of 63% approval after his first quarter, back in 2009 when Obama's term was so full of promise, like closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, holding unemployment below 8% and bringing partisan Washington back together.

The good news for the aging Obama, who starts his 51st year early next month, is that both Presidents Reagan and Clinton also averaged below majority approval in their 10th quarters and still went on to a second term.

The bad news is that Jimmy Carter did the same in 1980 and went on to defeat. Also, both Reagan and Clinton showed significant approval improvement between their ninth and tenth quarters.

Obama did not.

COMMENT:  As each month brings us closer to the election, it's clear that the GOP has a magnificent opportunity.  But head-to-head polling still predicts, even at this early date, a close election, and the outcome is far from guaranteed.  The liberals will fight for this president as they have for no other because of his historic symbolism and because the Democratic Party is mired in the thinking of the 1960s, as is Mr. Obama.  But, looking at the Republican field, no one can be considered close to a shoo-in.  These polls cannot be allowed to put us asleep.

July 21, 2011        Permalink

A SHARP WARNING – AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  The tenth anniversary of the 9-11 attacks is less than two months off.  Al Qaeda may choose to mark it in its own stylish way:

US officials fear al-Qaida will attempt a massive September 11 anniversary attack by sabotaging a major utility facility with the use of insiders that the terrorist organization has successfully planted in such facilities, a US intelligence report released on Wednesday states.

ABC quoted the new US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) report as warning that violent extremists have obtained such insider positions and are planning physical and cyber attacks at a major facility, including a chemical or oil refinery.

"Based on the reliable reporting of previous incidents, we have high confidence in our judgment that insiders and their actions pose a significant threat to the infrastructure and information systems of US facilities," the report reads. "Past events and reporting also provide high confidence in our judgment that insider information on sites, infrastructure, networks, and personnel is valuable to our adversaries and may increase the impact of any attack on the utilities infrastructure."

Although the US State Department says no specific threat exists, materials recovered during the operation that killed Osama bin Laden in May suggest that al-Qaida seeks to carry out an attack on or around the tenth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

COMMENT:  Question:  If these insiders at American facilities have been detected, why are they still there?  It's pretty clear from this report that the screening procedures used in hiring people for sensitive facilities needs to be examined and strenghened. 

It's logical that Al Qaeda will want to mark the 10th anniversary of its handiwork.  Every citizen should be asked to be on alert.

July 21, 2011     Permalink