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AT THE LATEST ANGEL'S CORNER – THE NAMING OF THE FIRST RECIPIENT OF URGENT AGENDA'S HOPELESS CLOWN AWARD, EVEN HIGHER THAN OUR POMPOUS FOOL AWARD. 

JULY 28,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:55 P.M. ET:

HOUSE VOTE DELAYED – The House vote on the Boehner debt plan, expected for this evening, has been delayed.  It's pretty clear that the House GOP is divided, with some Tea Partiers refusing to vote for the plan.  Right now Boehner doesn't have the votes to pass it, which is certainly humiliating.  If this persists, the split in the party can become bitter, essentially squandering last November's victory at the polls.

POLL CONFIRMS OBAMA SLIPPAGE AMONG INDIES – A Pew Research poll, which earlier in the year reported that President Obama had an 11-point lead over a generic Republican among registered voters, now reports that lead down to one point.  The change is driven by a sharp drop in support for the president among independents.  Just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May.

JACKSON JOINS THE RACE CARD PLAYERS – Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois is the latest black leader to claim that President Obama is being treated differently than past presidents on the debt issue.  Representative Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas made the same change on the floor of the House last week.  I suspect these are previews of coming attractions.  The race card will be played in the 2012 election, first to bring out the minority vote, and, second, to make white voters feel guilty about turning out of office the nation's first black president.  If the playing of the card only affects three or four percent of the vote, that is enough, quite often, to swing a presidential election.

STYLISH ACCIDENT – As we struggle to pay our bills, others struggle to drive with reasonable care.  In Monte Carlo, according to London's Daily Mail, the driver of a Bentley caused a five-car pileup, colliding with a Mercedes, a Ferrari, a Porsche, and an Aston Martin.  Even if she switches to GEICO, I don't think she'll be saving much money on her next premium payment.  But we know she's in good hands.

July 28, 2011     Permalink

MOST WONDERFUL NEWS – AT 5:24 P.M. ET:  Our very gracious former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced that she has not forgotten her subjects:

"What we're trying to do is save the world from the Republican budget. We're trying to save life on this planet as we know it today."

I am just so relieved.  Aren't you?  Here, I'd thought we little people were forgotten in Washington, but our Nancy comes along to assure us that the entire world will be saved.  Imagine that!

And so will life on our planet. 

I will go to bed more easily tonight knowing Nancy is on watch.  Please send her a list of things you want saved.  Start with hamburgers, ice cream, and Hayek's "Road to Serfdom."  Watch her race for the Zoloft.

July 28, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN:  FORT HOOD UPDATE – AT 5:17 P.M. ET:    We are updating our earlier snippet about an arrest of an Army soldier.  Disturbing details are emerging.  From Fox:

An Army private has been arrested in connection with an alleged plot to attack Fort Hood that authorities suggest was close to being carried out. The arrest, first reported by Fox News, comes nearly two years after a deadly shooting rampage at the base.

Pvt. Naser Jason Abdo, an AWOL soldier from Fort Campbell in Kentucky, was arrested by the Killeen Police Department near Fort Hood and remains in custody at the Killeen jail.

Abdo, 21, was found with weapons, explosives and jihadist materials at the time of his arrest, a senior Army source confirms to Fox News. He was arrested at around 2 p.m. Wednesday after someone called authorities to report a suspicious individual.

Eric Vasys, a spokesman with the FBI's San Antonio Office, said authorities found firearms and bomb making components inside Abdo's motel room. Sources also say Abdo was attempting to make a purchase at Guns Galore in Killeen, the same ammunition store where Maj. Nidal Hasan purchased weapons that were allegedly used to gun down 13 people and wound 30 others at the base on Nov. 5, 2009.

Sources said Abdo had enough materials to make two bombs, including 18 pounds of sugar and six pounds of smokeless gunpowder -- a possible trigger for an explosive. A pressure cooker was also found. Another counterterrorism source said the bomb making materials and methodology came "straight out of Inspire (a terrorist magazine) and an Al Qaeda explosives course manual."

COMMENT:  But remember, we must understand his culture and not rush to judgment.  He may have had legitimate grievances.  Who are we to judge? 

Get your seasickness pills.

July 28, 2011        Permalink

THE DEBT-LIMIT DEBATE – AT 11:03 A.M. ET:  The House is scheduled to vote today on the Boehner plan.  While far from perfect, the plan is the only practical proposal currently on the table that our side might be able to support.  The vote is expected to be close.

Even if passed, the plan has little chance of getting through the Democratic-controlled Senate.  But by passing it, the House would give life to an actual plan, not a theory, and negotiations might result. 

House Speaker John Boehner and his Republican deputies are in a fight to the buzzer to round up enough support to pass his deficit-reduction bill, as the House begins arguably the most harrowing series of votes in his tenure -- with the nation's borrowing power, the economy and everybody's interest rates in the balance.
As Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said over the weekend, the administration did not expect Congress to come this close to the Aug. 2 deadline. That's the date when the country will no longer be able to pay all its bills without a debt-ceiling increase, according to Treasury, risking the possibility of default.

While some conservatives balk at the Boehner plan as not going far enough in spending cuts, others point out that it has one significant advantage over other ideas being floated – it maintains American military power.  From NRO:

As House Republicans debate whether to support the Boehner debt-limit package, one key issue is getting overlooked in the debate: Unlike the alternatives presented by Democrats and bipartisan commissions, the Boehner plan avoids significant defense cuts, making it the best option for conservatives concerned about U.S. national security.

For decades, Republicans have been viewed by voters as the party of national security. Voters have come to trust the Grand Old Party to keep Americans safe and maintain America’s defenses. In the 1980s, President Reagan bucked political pressure to cut defense, instead conducting a defense buildup that led to victory in the Cold War and pulled America out of what he called Carter’s “world of make-believe.” Pres. George H. W. Bush helped orchestrate the emergence of a Europe whole and free, and ousted Iraqi forces from Kuwait.

In contrast, significant cuts to the defense and intelligence budgets by President Clinton in the name of deficit reduction left the United States unprepared for the challenges posed by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. As Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently said at his confirmation hearing, the Clinton approach “might not have been the best way to achieve those savings.”

COMMENT:  Panetta has emerged as a pretty solid guy in the tradition of the old Democratic Party, which cared about national defense.  By contrast, as the article later points out, some Republicans, lured by the desire for deficit reduction, seem prepared to abandon traditional Republican support for a strong military, in favor of short-term budget gains. 

We had four military drawdowns in the 20th century, and lived to regret each one.  Do we learn from history, or just forget it?

July 28, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET – AT 10:35 A.M. ET:

From Fox:   At least one U.S. military serviceman has been arrested after raising concerns over another possible attack on Fort Hood, Fox News has learned exclusively.  Pvt. Nasser Jason Abdo, an AWOL soldier from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, was arrested by the Killeen Police Department near Fort Hood and remains in custody there. Authorities, however, will not say if Abdo is the one who raised security concerns.  Abdo was allegedly found with explosives and jihadist materials at the time of his arrest, a senior Army source confirms to Fox News. He was arrested Wednesday afternoon after someone called authorities to report a suspicious individual.

We'll follow this.  I'd love to see how the mainstream media handles the story, or if it even reports it. 

ACTION IN ATLANTA – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:  The Atlanta school system has been the focus of unwanted attention recently, amidst revelations that widespread cheating led to the false impression that students were making more progress than they actually were. 

ATLANTA (AP) — Atlanta Public Schools employees implicated in a widespread cheating scandal are getting notices that they've been put on paid administrative leave.

The notices sent out to teachers and others are among the steps the district must take as it begins to sort through each employee's case.

Superintendent Erroll Davis, who has been adamant that none of the employees will work in front of the district's students again, says he plans to start termination proceedings as quickly as he can.

A state report released earlier this month implicated educators in 44 schools for cheating on state tests. District officials say 41 of the educators suspected of cheating have already quit or retired.

And I'm sure those retirement benefits are generous.  A newly released study reports that the older students get, the more likely they are to believe cheating is acceptable:

Kids start to think cheating is OK as they get older, according to new data from surveys given to Fairfax County students in the sixth, eighth and 12th grades.

They're also less likely to be honest with their parents, and more likely to steal and ignore rules "that get in my way."

And...

In grade six, 97 percent of students responded "No" to the statement "I think sometimes it is OK to cheat at school." By the eighth grade, only 82 percent said no to cheating, and just 61 percent of high school seniors said the same.

"I wouldn't say it's expected -- we certainly want this as close to 100 percent as we can, especially for honesty and responsibility," said school board member Sandra Evans, who represents the Mason District and serves on the steering committee of the Northern Virginia Healthy Kids Coalition. "We need to find out why is that happening, before we can figure out what exactly we need to do."

COMMENT:  We're told that cheating is a national epidemic.  I'm afraid that isn't new.  We have had cheating scandals of one kind or another, going back as far as I can remember.  Even West Point, which enforces a strict honor code, had a major cheating scandal in 1949, and had to release 90 cadets. 

Perhaps the major difference between then and now is in attitude.  Today, a disturbing number of people accept cheating, and we also hear the comment, "Everybody does it."  It's apparently considered normal in some circles.  We might reflect on the kind of society we're building for the children, and what we have taught them.  I'm afraid that here we must indict the sixties generation, some of whose leading lights told us that ethics are relative, that values are oppressive, and that "if it feels good, do it." 

But they're not the only ones.  Harry Truman became famous as a senator by investigating corruption in the defense industry during World War II.  The Truman Committee launched him as a national figure.  But at least then the nation understood that what some contractors was doing was wrong. 

We've slipped.

July 28, 2011        Permalink

OUR EYE OFF THE BALL - AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  We regularly remind readers that we're taking our eye off the foreign-policy ball in focusing exclusively on economic issues.  But enemies and potential enemies won't take their eye off us.

What's happening in the Mideast is extraordinary, and tragic.  It will have implications for us for years to come, and yet the story is off the front page.  Consider:

BEIRUT (AP) — A global campaigning organization said Thursday that one person disappears in Syria every hour and that almost 3,000 people have gone missing since the start of the uprising against President Bashar Assad more than four months ago.

The online activist group Avaaz.org said its investigation has identified 2,918 Syrians who were arrested or abducted by force by security troops and whose whereabouts are now unknown.

The group published the results of its probe in a statement, which was e-mailed to The Associated Press. It also kicked off a campaign called "Save Syria's Disappeared" on its website Thursday.

"Hour by hour, peaceful protesters are plucked from crowds by Syria's infamously brutal security forces, never to be seen again," said Ricken Patel, executive director at Avaaz.

The group called on the international community to step up demands for the release of the disappeared and for a transition to democracy in Syria.

Syrian activists say more than 1,600 people — most of them unarmed protesters — have been killed by security forces since the revolt against Assad's rule erupted in mid-March.

COMMENT:  Syria is one of the most important of Arab countries.  The protests against the government are growing, especially on Fridays, after prayers.  Syria holds the key to what happens in Lebanon.  It is Iran's greatest ally in the Arab world.  It threatens Israel.  Yet America seems substantially diverted.

We'd better get our eye back on the ball.  We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

July 28, 2011       Permalink

A SLIGHT RAY OF LIGHT – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  Rarely do we get any good economic news, and this bulletin has to be viewed cautiously, but at least one number is heading in the right direction...at least for a week.  From Bloomberg:

Applications for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since April, a sign the weakness in the labor market is abating.

Jobless claims fell by 24,000 to 398,000 in the week ended July 23, fewer than forecast, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 415,000. There were no special factors associated with the decrease other than the usual volatility that occurs each year in July, a Labor Department spokesman said.

Many economists believe that the number must fall below 400,000 for any real jobs progress to be possible.  It did this week, but I wouldn't break out the champagne.  We'd have to see a trend over a period of weeks, or months.

A reduction in firings is a necessary step toward the point when employers are more willing to add workers. The lack of hiring means the unemployment rate will probably keep hovering near 9 percent, restraining consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.

COMMENT:  The administration will probably gloat a bit about this slight improvement, but with the strong possibility that the credit rating of the U.S. will be downgraded, the Obamans might try to be careful about making claims. Downgrading would produce substantial uncertainty in the economy, to add to the uncertainty already there, and uncertainty means further job losses.

July 28, 2011     Permalink

JULY 27,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

SARAH WATCHERS, PLEASE NOTE –  Sarah Palin has accepted an invitation to keynote a Tea Party rally in Iowa on September 3rd, just at the start of the political season.  Some Sarah observers see this as another hint that she'll soon enter the presidential contest.  She must make a decision by the end of September to get her operation going well enough to be competitive in upcoming primaries.

PERRY RISING – A new Gallup Poll reports that Governor Rick Perry of Texas would start his presidential campaign in second place, behind only Mitt Romney, who's been running for president since Theodore Roosevelt's day.  I would expect that Perry would find himself as leader of the pack in short order, as he outdistances Romney by many laps as a campaigner.  Palin was third in the survey, and Giuliani and Bachmann tied for fourth.

BOEHNER ALSO RISING – The speaker, along with Majority Leader Eric Cantor, are starting to get high marks over the way they're whipping their House majority in line behind Boehner's debt proposal.  There had been a brief rebellion by the Tea Party stalwarts, but that seems to be fading in the face of calls by Boehner and others for a practical approach to the debt crisis.  Boehner, whose proposal is not perfect, is correct.  He's following the Reagan mantra that it's better to have 80% of something than 100% of nothing.  If the House passes the Boehner plan, the Dem Senate will be in the position of attempting to vote down the only coherent plan out there.

DEVIL HOT DOGS! – A billboard near the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is warning race goers of the health dangers of demon hot dogs.  There is apparently not much evidence to back up the claim, but we're glad to know the munchies police are on the job.  I suspect, but cannot prove, that the billboard is being sponsored by the Take-All-The-Fun-Out-Of-Life Coalition, a group of people who wear sensible shoes.

July 27, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:36 P.M. ET:

OSLO, Norway (AP) -- Five days after an attacker incensed by Norway's culture of tolerance horrified the world, Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday issued a quiet call of defiance to his countrymen: Make Norway even more open and accepting.  "The Norwegian response to violence is more democracy, more openness and greater political participation," Stoltenberg insisted at a news conference.  His promise in the face of twin attacks that killed 76 people signaled a contrast to the U.S. response after the 9/11 attacks, when Washington gave more leeway to perform wiretaps and to search records.

The fawning dolt who wrote the story, and the equally doltish prime minister, might become familiar with the American notion that the first responsibility of government is the protection of its citizens.  Children died last week in Norway because no security was provided for them.  And we learned today that the sole helicopter available to the police wasn't used...because the crew was on vacation.  Maybe the prime minister is proud of his country's performance.  Perhaps he should express this pride to the grieving parents.  What a disgrace.

EVEN WORSE FOR OBAMA – AT 10:57 A.M. ET:  National Journal, in examining the president's political position, acknowledges that Mr. Obama's national numbers are not good, but asserts that his standing in battleground states that he must win is even worse, leading to thoughts – although it is very early in the campaign – of a Dem debacle: 

...while the national polls are useful in gauging the president’s popularity, the more instructive numbers are those from the battlegrounds.

Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.

Take Ohio, a perennial battleground in which Obama has campaigned more than in any other state (outside of the D.C. metropolitan region). Fifty percent of Ohio voters now disapprove of his job performance, compared with 46 percent who approve, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted from July 12-18.

Among Buckeye State independents, only 40 percent believe that Obama should be reelected, and 42 percent approve of his job performance. Against Romney, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent—well below the 50 percent comfort zone for an incumbent.

The news gets worse from there. In Michigan, a reliably Democratic state that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote, an EPIC-MRA poll conducted July 9-11 finds him trailing Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent. Only 39 percent of respondents grade his job performance as “excellent” or good,” with 60 percent saying it is “fair” or “poor.” The state has an unemployment rate well above the national average, and the president’s approval has suffered as a result.

COMMENT:  Other states, like Iowa and Pennsylvania, offer similar grimness.  As the article argues, if Obama can't turn around traditional Democratic states like Michigan, how can he expect to win more closely divided states like Virginia? 

But the piece also has a warning for the GOP, that the nomination of a very polarizing figure for president can turn the race around, and possibly but Barack Obama back in the White House.

Of course, if the economy starts to boom, these early polls will be forgotten history.  However, that appears to be unlikely.  Next year's election could redefine the direction of the country.  And then Obama can become secretary-general of the UN, and announce himself a citizen of the world.   Or has he done that already?

July 27, 2011        Permalink

OBAMA DOWN AMONG MILLENNIALS – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  That's a term you'll hear more and more – the millennials, those voters under 30.  That group has been part of Obama's political base, but, as Michael Barone points out, it is slipping away, something that can have a devastating effect on the president's reelection prospects: 

...white Millennials have been moving away from the Democrats. The Democratic edge in party identification among white Millennials dropped from 7 points in 2008 to 3 points in 2009 to a 1-point Republican edge in 2010 and an 11-point Republican lead in 2011.

There have been shifts of similar magnitude among whites who are low-income, who have no more than a high school education, and who live in the Midwest.

It's not hard to come up with plausible reasons for these changes.  Obama campaigned as the champion of "hope and change" in 2008 and assured crowds of young people that "we are the change we are seeking."

But the change they have seen is anything but hopeful. Youth unemployment rates have been at historic highs. Young people have seen their college degrees produce little in the way of job offers.

They are choosing more often to keep living with their parents. From the Obama Democrats they have gotten only a promise that "children" up to age 26 can stay on mommy and daddy's health insurance plans.

In the wake of the 2008 election, I argued that there was a tension between the way Millennials lived their lives -- creating their own iPod playlists, designing their own Facebook pages -- and the one-size-fits-all, industrial-era welfare-state policies of the Obama Democrats.

Instead of allowing Millennials space in which they can choose their own futures, the Obama Democrats' policies have produced a low-growth economy in which their alternatives are limited and they are forced to make do with what they can scrounge.

COMMENT:   All right, Republicans, this is a group willing to be convinced.  What have you got?  What are you offering?  Obama is losing the millennials, but can get them back.  Remember that he is a superb campaigner.  Republicans historically have been slow to engage anyone who wasn't already a Republican.  You know, dearies, we really don't like these pushy people who aren't in the club.  But Republicans have opportunities that are golden.  I think there are some potential presidential nominees who have the spark that can ignite the millennials...if the party gives them the chance.

July 27, 2011      Permalink

WHILE WE SLEEP – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  We have warned repeatedly here that, while trying to solve our economic woes, we're taking our eye off the foreign-policy ball, especially in regard to Iran.  But the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is clearly worried, and sounding alarms.  From Reuters:

General Martin Dempsey says Tehran's nuclear activities and its attacks against US soldiers in Iraq show "miscalculation of US resolve."

US President Barack Obama's pick to become the top US military officer warned Iran not to underestimate US resolve in responding to attacks on US forces in Iraq by Iranian-backed militia and Tehran's continued nuclear activity .

General Martin Dempsey did not outline potential US responses in a Senate hearing on his nomination to become chairman of the US military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, a post he is expected to assume in October.

But his remarks underscored growing US concern in the wake of the killing of 14 US service members in hostile incidents in June, the highest monthly toll in Iraq in three years.

Asked what his message to Iran would be, Dempsey said: "It would be a gross miscalculation to believe that we will simply allow that to occur without taking serious consideration or reacting to it."

Dempsey appeared to signal his fear that Tehran might go too far, both in its actions in Iraq and with its nuclear program, which the West believes is aimed at making nuclear weapons. Tehran says the program is for peaceful purposes.

In his written response to questions from the Armed Services Committee, Dempsey wrote: "With its nuclear activities and its surrogate activities in southern Iraq, there is a high potential that Iran will make a serious miscalculation of US resolve."

COMMENT:  If you were Iran, looking at the U.S. today, how much resolve would you see?  It took Obama days finally to get to a microphone to denounce the Iranian crackdown on democracy demonstrators in its own streets in 2009.  Iran is rarely mentioned by the administration today.

But Dempsey is right.  Ultimately, if pushed, any American president, including this one, would have to take action.  And yes, there is enormous danger of a miscalculation in Tehran that could lead to a regional conflagration.  The Japanese miscalculated at Pearl Harbor; Al Qaeda miscalculated on 9-11. 

But the president himself must send stronger signals that our economic woes will not lead to a loss of American resolve internationally.  Those signals have not been sent.  On the contrary, Democratic budget proposals contain alarming cuts in defense spending just at a time when foreign threats are increasing, not decreasing. 

July 27, 2011       Permalink

THE KEY WORD IS "DOWNGRADE" – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  That's the word we're hearing more and more, even more than "default."  Even if the geniuses in Washington avoid a national default in the coming debt negotiations, America could still face a "downgrade."  It sends a chill up the spine of D.C. politicians, especially in the White House, because it's 1) a national humiliation, and 2) easily understood.  From The Politico:

It’s not the default that strikes the most fear in the White House and Congress these days. It’s the downgrade.

Even Republican leaders say the country can’t go into default, and they’ll do everything possible to raise the debt limit by Aug. 2.

But what really haunts the administration is the very real prospect, stoked two weeks ago by Standard & Poor’s, that Barack Obama could go down in history as the president who presided over his country’s loss of its gold-plated, triple-A bond rating.

Obama could win and lose at the same time, striking a deal to avoid default but failing to pass muster on the substance of that deal with credit agencies, which could go ahead and downgrade the rating anyway.

Financial analysts say such a move would hit Americans with more than $100 billion a year in higher borrowing costs, but it’s not just that. It would be a psychic blow to a nation that already looks over its shoulder at rising economic powers like China and wonders, what’s gone wrong? And it would give the president’s Republican rivals a ready-made line of attack that he’s dragging the country in the wrong direction.

It’s what drives his Treasury Department into cajoling and pleading with the bond ratings agencies to be patient, like a harried coach working the refs from the sidelines.

It’s a factor influencing Obama’s rejection of a short-term deal: The administration believes the ratings agencies won’t like it.

COMMENT:  From what we've seen in sweeping the internet and news outlets, more and more commentators believe we will be downgraded.  As the story notes, this could produce real psychological damage.  This country has the self-image as a kind of financial Gibraltar, with the highest ratings.

If we do get downgraded, one sad byproduct will probably be the perception in minority communities that race is involved, that the nation's first black president is being slapped down by the old white boy's financial network.  This would be a tragic development, but I'm afraid it will happen.

July 27, 2011     Permalink