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AT THE LATEST ANGEL'S CORNER – READERS SOUND OFF ON THE DEBT CRISIS, THE PRESIDENT, AND AN ECONOMIC PLAN FOR AMERICA

JULY 31, 2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:58 P.M. ET:

DEAL REACHED – You all probably know by now that a deal has been reached in Washington, averting a technical default on our debts scheduled to take place on Tuesday.  We actually don't know the details of the deal, although leaders of both parties seem optimistic that it will pass Congress.  It was pretty clear during the day that one element holding up agreement was Speaker Boehner's insistence that any agreement not do damage to national defense.  It appars, based on reporting by Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post, that he may have succeeded in isolating defense from other items in the budget, and giving it some protection.  We won't comment on this until we know the details tomorrow.

REVOLT OF THE GENERALS? – We've had several military "revolts" in American history, none coming close to a coup, of course.  Generals and admirals periodically express their displeasure with the civilian leadership and the decisions that affect national defense.  In the last few days we've heard rumblings that many American military officers believe that the drawdown in Afghanistan is too abrupt, and will endanger the gains made in that country.  At the same time, it's becoming clear from leaks and public statements that top military leaders in Washington are dismayed over the prospect of radical defense cuts, and are warning that this country cannot carry out its obligations if an already worn out and stressed force is cut much more.  Anyone listening?

DISCOURAGEMENT ON LIBYA – Britain's defense secretary, Liam Fox, concedes that Libyan rebel troops will not be able to dislodge bandit President Muamar Gadaffi.  Gadaffi and his forces have withstood four months of bombing, and Gadaffi remains in Tripoli, although his life is restricted by the bombings.  Fox is a solid guy and a keen ally of the United States.  His words should be taken seriously.  He says that the only way for Gadaffi to be overthrown may be the old reliable method, the palace coup.  In other words, NATO is looking for a betrayer, or a group of betrayers, inside Gadaffi's inner circle.  The lack of American leadership in the Libyan campaign has been a source of embarrassment for this country, and of frustration for our allies.

July 31, 2011     Permalink

DEFENDING DEFENSE – AT 10:46 A.M. ET:  We mentioned in our first post the importance of looking carefully at any debt agreement to see what it does to national defense.  Frankly, I'm worried.  So are a group of Republican members of Congress, who are now stepping forward to speak directly to the American people about the importance of maintaining our defenses in an increasingly dangerous world.  From the Weekly Standard: 

House Republicans held a press conference in the Capitol Saturday to denounce what they called dangerous cuts to defense spending in Senator Harry Reid's debt limit bill. Buck McKeon (R, Calif.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, warned that Reid's bill would cut defense by more than $400 billion beyond Boehner's plan over 10 years. "If Senator Reid's plan passes--if we stand idly by while this administration spends down its domestic spending spree with the blood and sweat of our troops--our military will break," McKeon said. "The Army and Marines are stretched dangerously thin, separated from their families, and using hardware that has been chewed up by a decade of fighting.

Rep. Randy Forbes (R, Va.) said that Reid's bill would result in a dangerous reduction in both hardware and military personnel. "If we look at the Marine Corps they've said specifically they cannot meet the needs of the combatant commanders now," Forbes said. "If they have to make these cuts it'll have to come out of personnel, and they'll have to reduce their force structure, and they'll have to have a new strategy for how they defend the United States of America."

The most powerful rebuke of Reid's plan came from Lt. Colonel Allen West (R, Fla.). The Tea Partier and Iraq war veteran said he's not opposed to all defense cuts and even chastised the president for wasting tax dollars on Libya. But he called the Reid bill's cuts "incredible" and "unconscionable."

COMMENT:  One of the great myths is that we spend too much on defense.  We don't.  True, there are probably wasteful programs in the Pentagon, and they should be vigorously pursued.  But our overall defense budget really doesn't even cover some important needs.  We are not replacing ships fast enough.  We are certainly not replacing old warplanes fast enough.  If we cut personnel, we lose the expertise built up over years, and at great cost. 

We had four defense drawdowns in the 20th century, and lived to regret each one of them.  Young Americans paid a terrible price for unpreparedness, or shortages in equipment.

Hostile nations watch our defense spending carefully.  We know the Soviet Union watched President Reagan's defense buildup, and were clearly chastised by it.  The Soviets knew they couldn't keep up.

National defense is life insurance.  Properly managed, it is always worth it.  As President Kennedy once said, when the chief executive calls the Pentagon, someone always answers.

July 31, 2011       Permalink

HORROR IN SYRIA – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:  We keep urging here that, in the midst of our own economic stress, it's important not to take our eyes off the foreign-policy ball.   There is new horror in Syria, one of the most important of Arab countries.  From Fox:

Syrian security forces killed at least 62 people Sunday in an escalation of the crackdown on protests ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, activists and residents said. Most died in raids on the flashpoint city of Hama, where a barrage of shelling and gunfire left bodies scattered in the streets.

Demonstrations calling for President Bashar Assad's ouster are expected to swell during Ramadan, which starts Monday, in Syria. Security forces appeared to be racing against time as they stormed and raided cities and small villages across the country in an attempt to crush a remarkably resilient uprising that began in mid-March.

Having sealed off the main roads into the opposition stronghold of Hama almost a month ago, army troops in tanks pushed into the city from four sides before daybreak Sunday in a coordinated assault. Residents shouted "God is great!" and threw firebombs, stones and sticks at the tanks. The crackle of gunfire and thud of tank shells echoed across the city, and clouds of black smoke drifted over rooftops.

"It's a massacre. They want to break Hama before the month of Ramadan," an eyewitness who identified himself by his first name, Ahmed, told The Associated Press by telephone from Hama, where at least 49 people were killed Sunday.

Hospitals were overwhelmed with casualties and were seeking blood donations, he said.

COMMENT:  Note the deep concern expressed by "human rights activists," especially in the United States.  And note the laxness of our own government in dealing with this nightmare.  We were quick to push pro-American Hosni Mubarak out of the Egyptian presidency, but very slow to put truly serious pressure on the anti-American and pro-Iranian Syrian regime.  Hmm.

July 31, 2011       Permalink

DEBT TALKS UPDATE – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is saying at this hour that the parties are very close to an agreement to avert a debt crisis:

Washington (CNN) -- Democrats and Republicans are "very close" to reaching a $3 trillion deal on the debt limit, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday.

"We had a very good day yesterday," the Kentucky Republican said, adding that the two sides "made dramatic progress."

With the deadline to reach a debt ceiling agreement just two days away, congressional leaders and the White House are mulling parts of a tentative deal that would extend the debt limit through next year.

A Republican source close to the negotiations told CNN the goal is $3 trillion in savings, and that the deal would include a $2.4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling.

Just hours before, two other sources familiar with the negotiations had told CNN late Saturday night that the framework for the emerging deal called for up to $2.8 trillion in total deficit reduction over the next decade.

The plan, parts of which are still being negotiated by the White House and bipartisan congressional leaders, would allow the debt ceiling to be raised by enough to last at least through the end of 2012...

...McConnell added that he is "very very close to being able ... to recommend to my members that this is something that they ought to support."

The deal will not include tax increases, he said.

COMMENT:  Obviously, the Devil, as he always is, is in the details.  I want to know how this presumed deal will impact actual debt reduction over ten years.  I want to know how it will impact defense.  There are some reports, disturbing ones, that defense is to be gutted, but I can't believe Republicans would go along with that.  And, because I'm sane, I want to know how the plan will affect insurance (not entitlement) programs like Social Security and Medicare, which citizens have paid into all their working lives.  Government isn't doing Americans a favor by maintaining and reforming those programs.  Part of every paycheck goes for them.

July 31, 2011     Permalink

JULY 30,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:41 P.M. ET:

COMPROMISE? – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has postponed a scheduled vote on his own debt bill until tomorrow, giving more time to negotiations that presumably are underway among Dems, Republicans, and the White House.  No specifics on those negotiations have leaked out.  Although Republican leaders said earlier in the day that a deal was close, Reid poured water on that assessment this evening.  Default day is Tuesday.

HIM AGAIN? – Real estate magnate, TV personality, and supreme hair comber Donald Trump, says that he may run for president if the economy stays bad.  There appears to be no chance that Trump could get the GOP nomination, meaning he would have to run as an independent.  Thus he would duplicate the ego trip of Ross Perot in 1992, which probably cost George H.W. Bush a second term, and sent Bill Clinton to the White House.  Trump would take votes from the Republicans.  I doubt if many Obama voters would defect to him.  I wish he would stay in the apartment-house business.

INCREDIBLE – Iran will name a new oil minister this week, and that individual is set to become the president of OPEC, which has a rotating presidency.  It's Iran's turn.  The new minister will probably be a general in Iran's  Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is under sanction by U.S., European Union, and U.N. sanctions.  As president of OPEC, he could have substantial influence in world oil markets at a time of stress and uncertainty.  Obama's outreach to Iran has certainly done a lot of good, hasn't it?

SAME OLD MIDEAST STORY – The prestige of Libya's rebel movement has suffered a serious blow as it was acknowledged that Islamic elements within its ranks murdered the rebels' top battlefield commander.  There is now growing concern that extreme Islamic elements are far more powerful in the rebel movement than we'd previously thought.  We must now contemplate that the fall of Gadaffi's government might bring in a regime that is even worse, a prospect that we must already contemplate in Egypt.  One day the Arabs will get something right.  Maybe a lovely new pyramid, painted in bright colors, or a new exotic dance.  Hey, you gotta begin somewhere.

July 30, 2011    Permalink   

CRISIS IN TURKEY – DOES WASHINGTON CARE? – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  Turkey is one of the more critical nations, a bridge between Europe and the Mideast, and the only Muslim country in NATO.  But Turkey is going through internal trauma that can affect both the Western alliance and stability in the Mideast.

In a story that has been overshadowed by the American debt dilemma, Turkey's military leadership has resigned.  It is the military that has maintained Turkey's secular, pro-Western traditions against the pro-Islamic regime that the country has had for a decade.  Turkey's pro-Western stance is weakening considerably, with a government more sympathetic to Iran than to those resisting Iran.  This is not good for us:

(Reuters) - Turkey's top military brass resigned on Friday, in the latest and possibly decisive round of a long battle between the traditional secularist establishment embodied by the army and the Islam-rooted government of Tayyip Erdogan that has dominated Turkey for nearly a decade.

The head of Turkey's military quit on Friday along with the army, navy and airforce chiefs in protest against what he called the unjust detention of 250 military officers held on charges of conspiracy against Prime Minister Erdogan's government.

The unprecedented move by the High Command in NATO's second largest armed forces sent shockwaves through Turkey.

It lays open the deep rift between a military badged with the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Atatruk, founder of the Turkish Republic, and a rival elite represented by Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK), with Islamist roots and a vast following in the conservative heartland of Anatolia.

COMMENT:  The Islamists are winning in Turkey, with profound implications for NATO and for relations with the Muslim world.  Turkey has access to classified information within NATO, and NATO is currently engaged in two Muslim countries, Afghanistan and Libya.  I wonder what's happening to that secret data. 

If Turkey's military falls under Islamic control, the battle for Turkey is over, and NATO's second largest military force will, bottom line, be on the other side.  That is simply an incredible prospect, and can lead NATO into even more paralysis than it already suffers.

July 30, 2011       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:45 A.M. ET:  Today's Rasmussen tracker shows a sharp drop for the president, with the public clearly disenchanted:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21.

Strong Disapproval of the president is now at the highest level since November 9, 2010. Additionally, 50% give the president poor marks for his handling of the economy.

And...

Overall, 44% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-six percent (56%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  Gallup actually picked up this trend first, but Rasmussen's numbers are now falling into line.  The president's approval is in the low forties.  Should it dip into the thirties, that would be real political news.  You'll see stories like, "Obama headed for George Bush country."

At the same time, we give our usual cautions – that polls are snapshots, and subject to major changes, and poor numbers for Obama do not translate into good numbers for Republicans.  Americans are down on just about everyone right now.  Mother Teresa would have a hard time getting elected.

July 30, 2011       Permalink

HAPPY WEEKEND – AT 10:22 A.M. ET:  Live it up.  Have a ball.  Captain Smith says the iceberg really didn't do that much damage, and the Titanic will make it to port on Tuesday. 

Oh, wait.  Wrong disaster.  We really should be focused on America's anticipated default on Tuesday morning.

We have nothing dramatic to report to you.  There's been no real progress on avoiding the Tuesday deadline.  Now, as we understand it here, the roof won't collapse on Tuesday.  Money flows into the federal government all the time, and we can meet immediate obligations.  But the symbolism will be devastating, and will encourage ratings agencies to downgrade our credit rating.

We know only that "talks are underway," and that the Senate anticipates a vote on some kind of plan at 1 a.m. tomorrow.  The boys are staying up late.  The mainstream media, as expected, is framing the situation as being created by Tea Party conservatives, who are holding out for their demands.

We do not see much activity on behalf of Mr. Change We Can Believe In.  This glorified town councilman sits in the White House and waits for the peasants below to come up with ideas.  Our side warned in 2008 that this man, who no doubt is bright and speaks very well, was woefully unprepared for the presidency.  He's been in office two and a half years.  Case closed.

July 30, 2011     Permalink