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JUNE 1,  2011

A PSYCHOLOGICAL CHANGE – AT 11:36 P.M. ET:   I don't think I've seen a day in recent months when the psychological mood across the internet changed as rapidly.   By afternoon there was an avalanche of comment and analysis about the economy. 

Things are not good, and this morning's report on how few jobs we're creating, and the recent and devasting news that we're probably in a double dip recession in housing, are concentrating minds.  By afternoon there was serious talk of a new recession, and even a depression.  Now, as before, it's the economy and the economy.

The effect of this cannot be good for the president.  And if today's buzz is continues, and grows, the psychological impact can be devastating.  Economic downturns depend to some degree on the psychology of the moment - the consumer who will not spend because he fears losing his job, the employer who will not hire because she fears a downturn in business. 

There is, about this administration, a lack of urgency about the economy.  "No drama Obama" sounds at times like "no interest Obama."  The president's poll numbers have recently been up, but, if there is another economic slide, that advance will be stopped and reversed.

The Republican nomination for president next year is worth a great deal.  We have to purchase carefully.

The next U.S. Government jobs report is tomorrow.

June 1, 2011      Permalink

ISN'T THIS A BIT PREMATURE? – AT 11:25 P.M. ET:  I've heard of presidential fever, but this is a case that requires an emergency vaccine.  From The Politico:

Chicago mayor and former Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel isn’t turning his back on a possible run for the White House in 2016.

“I got a job to do here, and that’s all I’m focused on,” he told ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos, who said to Emanuel that a lot of Democrats might be talking about him making a presidential bid in five years, in an interview that aired Wednesday morning.

Oh please.  The man just got into the mayor's chair.

Stephanopoulos asked again — “never think about it?” With a big smile on his face, Emanuel responded: “You know my wife, no,” as both men broke out in laughter.

But Emauel’s answer wasn’t an absolute “no” and might have moved him a little closer to considering a bid than he was a few weeks ago.

When asked by POLITICO just days before he was sworn in as mayor if he’d run for president, his response was a bit different: the extension of his middle finger and a flat-out dismissal: “That’s the dumbest thing in the world.”

Emanuel tried to steer much of the conversation in the interview toward Chicago, but Stephanopoulos was persistent in tapping into the old Emanuel - the behind-the-scenes strategist for President Barack Obama.

COMMENT:  I'ver never thought of the mayoralty of Chicago as a launching pad for anything legitimate.  Of course, Emanuel could always use the slogan, "He knows where the bodies are buried," and, given Chicago politics, it would literally be true. 

Considering that Emanuel is known for using hand gestures that signal significant disapproval, and language that would make the U.S. Navy blush, I don't think the Oval Office is in Rahm's future.  I'm probably wrong.

June 1, 2011         Permalink

GOOD SIGNS – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  The term is "generational change."  Sometimes it's good and sometimes, as in the 1960s, it isn't good at all.  But one sign of good generational change these days is that ROTC is being welcomed back on "elite" campuses, in part because the young generation – the 9-11 generation – appreciates what the military is doing.  From the L.A. Times:

Reporting from Palo Alto -- On an early May morning 43 years ago, fire swept through Stanford University's Navy ROTC building, destroying a structure that had been damaged in another suspicious blaze just two months earlier.

No arrests were ever made in the two arson fires, but they came at a time of angry, sometimes violent demonstrations against the Vietnam War on college campuses nationwide. Those protests often targeted the closest symbol of the U.S. military, the Reserve Officers Training Corps — with more than 200 campus ROTC units reporting vandalism during that war.

Flash forward to a much different time.

On a recent afternoon, Stanford senior Ann Thompson wore her Army ROTC uniform with pride as she helped staff a recruiting table for the military training program at a campus activities fair. She chatted with visitors about the ROTC's scholarships as a few dozen students marched nearby to protest the program's likely expansion at Stanford.

"There definitely are people not supportive of ROTC, but we still have respectful conversations," said Thompson, 22, of Paso Robles. "I can't fathom anyone burning a building down."

Helped by the recession, more active recruiting and a sea change in student perceptions of the military, enrollment in ROTC programs on college campuses is booming.

It's the sea change in the perception of the military that's the critical point here.

Even with ongoing U.S. involvement in conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and now Libya, participation in the program has surged 27% over the last four years — to 56,757 men and women, according to the Defense Department. The military boosted the number of ROTC scholarships to help expand the wartime officer corps, and the recession made the offers attractive to students.

Today's college students, who never faced a military draft and whose childhood memories include the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, are more receptive than their parents' generation to seeing fellow students in uniform.

COMMENT:  Also encouraging is the fact that faculties at "elite" schools seem to be coming around to an acceptance of ROTC.  This may be, in part, because younger faculty members are reportedly less ideological than the sixties contingent that they're replacing. 

Our side occasionally wins a few.

June 1, 2011      Permalink

EMPLOYMENT PICTURE STAYS GRIM – AT 8:57 A.M. ET:  Where is this recovery the administration is talking about?  Have you seen it?  Has it passed by your house?   Do they send trucks out with loudspeakers to announce it?

A new employment report is utterly grim.  It is hard to see how this will turn around in time for the presidential election.  From Bloomberg:

Companies in the U.S. added fewer workers than forecast in May, a sign that job growth is struggling to gain momentum, data from a private report based on payrolls showed today.

Employment increased by 38,000 last month, the smallest increase since September, from a revised 177,000 in April, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. The median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey called for a 175,000 advance for May.

Such gains in employment are insufficient to help the world’s largest economy accelerate after a surge in food and fuel costs earlier this year. Businesses added 207,000 jobs last month after a 268,000 gain in April and the jobless rate dipped to 8.9 percent from 9 percent, economists project a Labor Department report to show in two days.

“It is a warning shot across the bow that job growth is also weakening along with the other high frequency numbers,” Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc. in New York, said in an e-mailed note to clients. “The weakness reflects a general slowdown and turn in sentiment that set in with the sharp rise in energy prices, disruptions from Japan, and to a lesser extent risk aversion stemming from the Greek fiasco.”

COMMENT:  What record does Barack Obama intend to run on?  The economy is a wreck, our foreign policy is an embarrassment.  What, precisely, is his argument for reelection? 

Apparently, he doesn't need one.  A devoted press will help him, and a built-in base that will never abandon him will aid in launching his bid for a second term.  As we've said here, the GOP must respond with a terrific candidate and a coherent program that people will understand and embrace. 

The election is 17 months away.

June 1, 2011       Permalink

BUT ANOTHER "NO" FROM A CHAMP – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  Just as Rick Perry of Texas contemplates the presidency, the dynamic governor of New Jersey says no to Iowa.  From Fox:

Usually, it's political candidates that court Iowans.

On Tuesday, it was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie who was courted as a group of top Iowa Republican campaign contributors tried to persuade him to change his mind and run against President Barack Obama in 2012.

But after trekking all the way to New Jersey, the donors and party loyalists heard the same response fromChristie that countless others have heard: Thanks for asking, but no thanks.

Christie, his wife and top political advisers, met with the group for more than two hours on Tuesday at the governor's mansion in Princeton.

After dining on beef, chicken and, as an homage to the visitors, corn, Iowa energy company executive Bruce Rastetter -- the force behind the meeting -- told Christie that the group thinks the 2012 field so far has not captivated activists they way the tough talking first-term governor has and that it was Christie's duty to reconsider.

COMMENT:  Thus far, no dice.  But I'm intrigued by the fact that Christie met with this delegation and spent more than two hours with them.  He may be sincere in his rejection, but he may also be looking for something like a draft.  That's a risky gambit, because no one has actually ever been drafted for the presidency in modern times.  It's one of those political fantasies. 

I wouldn't count Christie out if support starts to build as he's still saying no.  But new people are getting into the GOP race, and the man who says no may just be bypassed.

June 1, 2011       Permalink

STRAW IN THE WIND – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  There are some signs that Texas Governor Rick Perry may jump into the GOP presidential race.  Clearly, that could be a game changer, since the sheer power of Texas in GOP politics must be respected.  Is this a straw in the wind?  From The Politico:

Gov. Rick Perry will be the replacement speaker for Donald Trump at a Manhattan GOP dinner next month, officials said Tuesday – a move that comes as the Texas governor has left the door open a crack on a 2012 campaign.

“The feeling of excitement that Governor Perry will join us at the dinner and address the attendees is palpable,” said Manhattan County GOP chairman Dan Isaacs in a statement. “Governor Perry is the perfect example that we in New York should be looking to. At a time when New York ranks at or near the bottom among states in every important metric, Texas is leading the way. By focusing on keeping taxes low and fostering a fair legal and regulatory environment, Governor Perry has helped Texas attract business and residents at a time when New York has been hemorrhaging both. As a result, Texas will gain four seats during next year’s congressional reapportionment, when New York will lose two.”

COMMENT:  That's an important quote.  If Rick Perry can be linked with the word "success," especially on economic issues, he gets an immediate leg up. 

Perry has never lost an election.  On the other hand, he's never run outside Texas.  And – I'm doing this from recollection – he has a history of making extreme statements.  I'd like to see a good piece of reporting, from a reliable news outlet, going over his whole history. 

He's the buzz of the moment, joining Sarah Palin in that regard.  The buzz might shift to someone else next week.  One thing we've learned in this election cycle – people expect reasonably quick decisions on whether to run from potential candidates.  In or out.  The Hamlet act grows thin.

June 1, 2011     Permalink

MAY 31,  2011

I WISH YOU'D BEEN THERE – AT 10:19 P.M. ET:  I went to a superb talk tonight given by the distinguished journalist, Richard Miniter, late of The Wall Street Journal and other good sheets.  Miniter has studied international terrorism with a clear eye and a sharp mind, and has written some awfully good books on the subject, including his latest, "Mastermind," about the man who planned the 9-11 attacks, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed (KSM), now a resident of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, with former offices in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

What struck me about Miniter's presentation was its starkness.  No political correctness.  No university feel-good propaganda.  I will only hit a few highlights, but I urge you to read "Mastermind."

1.  It is a myth that if those wonderful folks in the Muslim world get to know us better, they'll all love us.  Miniter meticulously destroys this fantasy, pointing out that KSM lived in the United States and studied here, and it was here that he learned to hate us.  As an extreme Islamist, he could not, for example, understand how a man he saw could change the oil in his car while listening to music.  It's a sin to listen to music.  And this man was making other people listen as well.  And he could not understand how a house could be built with a window in the kitchen, since people walking by might see a woman washing dishes.  It is immodest for a woman to be seen at a window.  It is degeneracy.  And that's the way they think,.

2.  It is a myth that only the ignorant join Al Qaeda.  Miniter pointed out that the percentage of college graduates in Al Qaeda is vastly higher than the percentage of college graduates in the Muslim world generally.

3.  KSM personally beheaded the American journalist, Daniel Pearl, primarily to live down a reputation within Al Qaeda that he had no backbone.

4.  Half of all the information that we have about Al Qaeda came from KSM...but only after he was subjected to enhanced interrogation techniques, including waterboarding.  That information stopped a number of plots, but we haven't gotten much since we ended those techniques during the latter years of the Bush administration.

5. Our new emphasis on killing Al Qaeda members through drone attacks in Pakistan is a terrible mistake, as dead men can't talk.  Al Qaeda is a family, and capturing a leader could result in an information windfall.  Killing him produces nothing.

6.  Eric Holder, our ideological attorney general, is determined to put on trial CIA agents who used enhanced interrogation techniques against Al Qaeda operatives, as a means of purifying the United States.  Some of these agents have already gone into deep debt to defend themselves.  Miniter believes there won't be any prosecutions until after the next election because of public opposition.  But if Obama is reelected, watch out. 

7.  Miniter told several stories about KSM that say something about the character if the man.  KSM received one trial by a military tribunal in Guantanamo.  Some relatives of 9-11 victims were permitted to watch the proceedings from a gallery.  At one point KSM took a sheet of paper, printed the flight numbers of the planes that were crashed on 9-11 on that paper, folded it into a paper airplane, and sailed it toward the 9-11 survivors.

8. KSM studied the techniques used by interrogators, and knew they were only permitted to pour water on his face during waterboarding for 30 seconds.  As the technique was underway, observers saw KSM count out the 30 seconds on his fingers, knowing how soon the ordeal would be over, trying to hold out.

9. KSM is obsessed with showmanship, and would love to have a civilian trial in the U.S., which he'd turn into a platform. 

This was a remarkable lecture, and brought home what we are up against.  It contrasted with the adolescent, childish attitudes floating around American elites, who assure us that the threat is exaggerated, and that Barack can take care of everything.  It isn't exaggerated, and Barack doesn't understand a thing.

May 31, 2011       Permalink

ILLINOIS – AS USUAL – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:  Illinois politics is not a game for children, or for those who crave fairness.  The Republican Party may take a beating in the next Illinois election because of how the oldest political game in town is played.  From The Politico:

The Democratic-controlled Illinois state Legislature is on the verge of passing a radically redrawn congressional map that has the national party basking in the prospect of ousting as many as six GOP House members — likely to be the Democrats’ biggest redistricting gain nationwide.

Final action won’t come until Tuesday, when the session is constitutionally required to end. But already, after a House committee’s party-line vote approving the plan on Sunday night, key players in both parties have stepped forward — without regard for seniority or the preferences of party bosses — to begin staking their claims to the new seats.

COMMENT:  Ah, democracy.  In fairness we should point out that, because of major gains by the GOP in state legislative elections last fall, most states should show increasing Republican strength because of redistricting. 

But the whole redistricting process leaves a sour taste.  It is one of the weaker links in the electoral chain, and there has to be a better way than to see Congressional districts carved up by whoever wins the last election.  But, until something better does come along, I hope our side isn't meek about demanding its share.

May 31, 2011      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:12 A.M. ET: 

A nursery school teacher in Mexico has been hailed a hero after a video showed her calmly instructing her pupils to duck and cover and sing songs as a fierce gun battle raged outside their school.  A certificate presented by the governor of the northern state of Nuevo Leon said teacher Martha Rivera Alanis showed "outstanding civic courage" in her steady performance during the Friday gunfight in the northern industrial hub of Monterrey.

I can just envision the CD:  "Songs to sing while your neighbors are killing each other."  What a sad commentary on what is happening in Mexico.

May 31, 2011      Permalink

WHAT A FARCE – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  Rigidly following the old adage that laziness is the best policy, the mainstream media is reporting Libya with a minimal of digging and a maximum of boredom.  But London's Telegraph deserves a medal for pointing out the farce of the president of South Africa trying to broker a deal with Gaddafi.  This is important:

Three months after the Libyan uprising began, the rebels are too weak to press home the advantage afforded by NATO bombing and Muammar Gaddafi refuses to go. This stalemate continues to cause widespread suffering, though it could end sooner than we expected. The mass defection yesterday of senior military officers, previously loyal to Col Gaddafi, is an encouraging sign that his supporters are feeling the strain. But there is no proof yet that the man himself will give way.

Such an impasse calls for mediation, which arrived in Tripoli yesterday in the person of Jacob Zuma, the South African president. The problem is that he is a partial interlocutor, and the timing of his visit coincides with Nato talk of an endgame. The links between Col Gaddafi and Mr Zuma go back to the 1980s, when the Libyan leader supplied money and arms to the African National Congress (ANC) in its struggle against apartheid. Nelson Mandela repaid the favour by campaigning for the lifting of sanctions imposed on Libya after the Lockerbie bombing. The ANC supported the UN resolution in March authorising a no-fly zone but has since criticised the mission. To the rebels Mr Zuma cannot be an honest broker, and the African Union which he represents is viewed as suspect because of the mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa fighting for Col Gaddafi. The president should have learnt his lesson when his earlier attempt at mediation was rebuffed in April.

COMMENT:  One of the disgraces of the modern press is its coverage of South Africa.  The press championed, properly, the fight against apartheid in that country, but once apartheid ended it pulled the plug on the TV lights and either went home or started a long pattern of press cover-ups of the real South Africa.

Fact is, South Africa is a mess, and its long collusion with a gangster like Gaddafi is part of the mess.  South Africa is a cynical, crime-filled nation, with one of the highest rates of sexual assault in the world.  Many people in the middle class and above must live behind gated walls.

At the same time, South Africa's foreign policy is a public embarrassment.  Several years ago a freedom-tracking organization in New York ranked the world's democracies in terms of the importance of human rights in their foreign policies.  South Africa ranked dead last.  But too many journalists are invested in South Africa as a symbol of resistance to racism to get the story right.  The issue is no longer apartheid.  The issue is what has happened in the years following the demise of apartheid.  Not many people seem interested.

Of course, the real story would reveal Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu, the two best-known "rights" activists in South Africa, as somewhat less enthusastic about human decency than their images would have you believe.  Mandela is an America-hater.  Tutu is a vile anti-Israel activist.  Gaddafi never seemed to bother them.

May 31, 2011       Permalink

MICHELE ENERGY – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  She is apparently ready to battle the smear job that the mainstream media will do on her, just as it did on Sarah Palin.  It's clear Michele Bachmann, congresswoman from Minnesota, is moving toward a presidential race.  From The Politico:

Her formal announcement about whether she’ll run for president isn’t expected for a few weeks, but Rep. Michele Bachmann already has her sights set on President Barack Obama.

Asked Monday night why she’d run for president rather than challenging Democrat Al Franken for his Senate seat, the Minnesota Republican’s answer focused where she’s put much of her energy in recent months: “Because we need a person who is going to stand up to Obamacare,” she said, according to The Washington Post.

“You’ve got to be willing to take on our party, the other party and then explain it to the people,” she told Republicans in New Hampshire. “I know I can make the case to the American people and win them over to our side.”

“Obama has to go and has to be replaced, but not just by anyone,” Bachmann said. “We need someone who is committed to taking that thing out,” she continued, referring to Obama’s health care law, “because it is the crown jewel of socialism, and if it’s allowed to stand we will never get our country back.”

Bachmann said last week that she plans to announce whether she’ll run for the Republican presidential nomination in her childhood hometown of Waterloo, Iowa, in June.

COMMENT:  Sounds like a candidate.  But would she be a good one? 

There are positives and negatives.  On the negative side, she's only a junior congresswoman.  She tends to be rigidly ideological, identifying almost exclusively with the Tea Party movement.  She wins her elections, but by smaller margins than would be expected in her district.  She is not a national figure.  She has a history of making kooky comments that inevitably will be dug up by the same media that sent reporters to Alaska to go through Sarah's trash cans.

On the positive side, she comes prepared.  She does her homework.  She can handle a tough interview, once she puts ideology aside.  She was a respected tax lawyer.  She has the ability to modulate her voice and sound presidential, a serious problem for Sarah.  She has a warm personal story, given her caring for foster children.  She is personally attractive. 

I think it's a tough climb, but I'd like to see her get in.  Even liberal Dan Rather said last week that Bachmann should be taken seriously and could go all the way. 

May 31, 2011       Permalink

BANKERGATE – AT 7:49 A.M. ET:  Is this legit, or has someone learned the meaning of the term "cash settlement"?  From the New York Daily News:

An Egyptian businessman has followed in the footsteps of pervy Frenchman Dominique Strauss-Kahn - sexually abusing a maid in a swanky Manhattan hotel, police said Monday night.

Mahmoud Abdel-Salam Omar, 74, former head of the Bank of Alexandria and now chairman of a leading Middle Eastern salt company, is accused of locking the 44-year-old hotel employee inside his $900-a-night room at The Pierre on E. 61st St. off Fifth Ave.

He had called for room service requesting tissues and answered the door in his pajamas, police sources said. When the maid, whom he had not specifically requested, arrived at his 10th-floor room, he asked her to put the box of tissues on a table, sources said. As she moved toward the table, he locked the door.

"He locked her in the room and had her trapped," a police source said.

And you know what allegedly happened next.

Omar then asked the maid for her phone number, a police source said. After she gave him a made-up number he let go, and she fled the room.

This is apparently what passes for suave in Egypt:  First, you abuse the maid, then you ask for her phone number.

The incident happened about 6 p.m. on Sunday but was not reported to police until Monday morning.

"Experienced NYPD detectives found the complainant to be credible," said Paul Browne, the NYPD's top spokesman.

If our guys say it's credible, it probably is.

The alleged perp should have told them that this is all part of the Arab Spring.

May 31, 2011     Permalink