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JUNE 6,  2011

MORE LIKE IRAN? – AT 11:20 P.M. ET:  Egypt is drifting more and more toward becoming a new Iran.  The Muslim Brotherhood, a militant, dangerous organization, has been declared legal, and is now moving toward participation in politics, using some blatantly fraudulent front names:

The Muslim Brotherhood's political party, set up to run in polls, was declared legal in Egypt on Monday, state news agency MENA said, for the first time since the movement was founded eight decades ago.

"The commission on party affairs has given its approval for the formation of the Freedom and Justice Party," it said.

Yeah, right.  Freedom and justice.  The brotherhood was born in fascism, was an ally of Adolf Hitler, and today is a front operation for jihadists.

The Muslim Brotherhood was officially illegal but mostly tolerated during the rule of president Hosni Mubarak, ousted in a popular revolt on February 11. It was set up in 1928 and an official ban imposed in 1954.

As the best-organised political movement in Egypt, the Brotherhood announced on April 30 the formation of a "non-theocratic party" to contest up to half of parliament's seats in a September election.

The Freedom and Justice Party announced last month that it had almost 9,000 founding members.

COMMENT:  It's become pretty clear that the modern visionaries who tried to point Egypt in a new direction at the start of the Arab Spring are going to be keenly disappointed.   Egypt may well become the new Iran, drifting back to medieval times.

June 6, 2011       Permalink

SUPPORT FOR AFGHAN WAR RISES – AT 9:30 P.M. ET:  A new poll shows a dramatic rise in support for our effort in Afghanistan, although the war is still only supported by a minority of Americans.  But the new support can give muscle to outgoing Secretary Gates's belief that we must be careful about withdrawing too quickly or too steeply.  From WaPo:

The number of Americans who say the war in Afghanistan is worth fighting has increased for the first time since President Obama announced at the end of 2009 that he would boost troop levels, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The finding may give Obama slightly more political breathing room as he decides how many troops to withdraw from Afghanistan in July, the deadline he set 18 months ago to begin bringing home the additional U.S. forces.

In the Post-ABC News poll conducted last week, 43 percent of Americans say the war is worth fighting, compared with 31 percent in March. A significant amount of the fresh support came from the independent voters Obama is courting as he campaigns for reelection next year.

But a majority of Americans still say the war, which is in its 10th year, is not worth fighting, despite the killing last month of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces in Pakistan.

The 16-point bump in support that Obama received for his handling of the war immediately after bin Laden’s death has been cut in half, the poll found.

COMMENT:  I suspect that the bin Laden raid contributed mightily to the increase in support for the war effort.  Nothing contributes to morale more than a victory, something President Roosevelt understood in 1942 when he ordered the immortal Doolittle raid on Tokyo.  That raid was fundamentally a morale booster.

The problem here is that Obama has very poor leadership skills.  He doesn't take the American people into his confidence, and he doesn't have the knack of rallying the country to his cause.  We get the feeling that he doesn't believe too strongly in some of the things he's doing.  Presidential leadership, important in all areas, is critically important in war, and we're not getting it.

We need change we can believe in...a new face.

June 6, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET – AT 7:13 P.M. ET – Prince William and Kate are moving into Kensington Palace in London, where William and his royal brother Harry grew up. 

Even in Britain they have problems getting young marrieds out of family housing.

June 6, 2011

SNIPPET – AT 7:05 P.M. ET – Katie Couric has signed to do a talk show with ABC. Our great national wait is over.  All three networks were after her, demonstrating how fresh and up-to-date they are.  They all heard the great wanting of Katie.

It is understood that NBC is still after Walter Cronkite, and refuses to give up.

June 6, 2011

SNIPPET – AT 6:58 P.M. ET – Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner of New York admitted that he did indeed send to a young woman that photo of him in his undies, and admitted that he lied about it.  He also admitted to six other inappropriate relationships with women.  He said he didn't have sex with any of them.  Refuses to resign.

There are rumors that Bill Clinton has offered his personal counseling services.

Recent Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer, also of New York, was forced to resign because he sought comfort in prostitutes. He now has a prime-time show on CNN.  So, look for the Spitzer-Weiner Report soon.  It will feature a centerfold.

June 6, 2011

FINAL WORDS FROM GATES – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Something quite remarkable is going on, but the press seems little interested.  Outgoing Secretary of Defense Bob Gates is making a farewell tour of bases, and giving some stern advice at the same time.  Some of the advice is designed to counter trends he sees as dangerous, even within the administration he serves.  From The Politico:

CAMP EGGERS, Kabul, Afghanistan—As his final act before leaving the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Robert Gates is working to build support for what he is calling a “modest” drawdown in Afghanistan, even though a war-weary Capitol Hill wants more.

Gates, who retires June 30, is hoping that his 12th and final trip to Afghanistan will help steer the Washington debate subtly away from the number of troops that will come home next month — a figure that is almost certain to disappoint the growing number of Washington critics of the war.

Instead, the secretary wants to keep his foot on the gas — and, at the same time, give President Barack Obama political running room — with the “bookend”:  Keep the promise to begin bringing home the 30,000 surge forces in July, then specify a date when they will all be home, and leave everything in between to commanders in the theater.

Gates, a wily Washington operator who took his first White House job 36 years ago, is being careful not to box in Obama — but, instead, to leave the commander-in-chief plenty of “decision space,” as they say in the military. But on an around-the-world farewell tour, Gates is bluntly arguing for patience in appearances and interviews.

COMMENT:  He's worth listening to.  He is also arguing against cuts in defense budgets that are so deep they will imperil us in the future. 

With a weak president, and an impatient Congress, coupled with our financial crisis, there is a tendency toward reckless talk in Washington.  That's bad enough on domestic policy.   On foreign and military policy it can be catastrophic.  I fully understand the frustration with Afghanistan, and with our Afghan and Pakistani "allies."  But it is not the time for arbitrary, emotional decisions.  Like the Cold War, the war against terrorism and its sponsors will take decades.  If we don't decide to endure, we will lose.

June 6, 2011       Permalink 

ON THIS DAY – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Two days ago we reminded readers that June 4th was the anniversary of the liberation of Rome in 1944.   Today, of course, is the anniversary of D-Day, the invasion of France in that same year.

D-Day was the most famous day of World War II, with the possible exception of December 7, 1941, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.  I'll be curious to see how much attention is paid to the D-Day anniversary today.  Do our young people know anything about that day, about what their grandparents achieved?  Do they know how important it was? 

There have been a number of D-Day ceremonies held in France since the end of the war.  But the most memorable was the one addressed by Ronald Reagan on the 40th anniversary of the invasion, in 1984.  As usual, Reagan captured the occasion and showed that great presidential addresses have substance, not just style.  He was speaking to American Rangers, veterans of D-Day.  A few of his words:

The men of Normandy had faith that what they were doing was right, faith that they fought for all humanity, faith that a just God would grant them mercy on this beachhead, or on the next. It was the deep knowledge -- and pray God we have not lost it -- that there is a profound moral difference between the use of force for liberation and the use of force for conquest. You were here to liberate, not to conquer, and so you and those others did not doubt your cause. And you were right not to doubt.

You all knew that some things are worth dying for. One's country is worth dying for, and democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man. All of you loved liberty. All of you were willing to fight tyranny, and you knew the people of your countries were behind you.

The Americans who fought here that morning knew word of the invasion was spreading through the darkness back home. They fought -- or felt in their hearts, though they couldn't know in fact, that in Georgia they were filling the churches at 4:00 am. In Kansas they were kneeling on their porches and praying. And in Philadelphia they were ringing the Liberty Bell.

That's the Reagan touch, which is why he was exactly the right man to make that speech.  And he had some advice:

We in America have learned bitter lessons from two world wars. It is better to be here ready to protect the peace, than to take blind shelter across the sea, rushing to respond only after freedom is lost. We've learned that isolationism never was and never will be an acceptable response to tyrannical governments with an expansionist intent.

COMMENT:  Ronald Reagan was ridiculed as "an amiable dunce," but in fact was a smart, informed and historically sensitive statesman.  He understood the lessons of D-Day, and he knew that they were eternal, not temporary.

I fear that we're forgetting those lessons today.  Even in the Republican Party there is an isolationist temptation.  It must be resisted, but only presidential leadership can give shape to that resistance.  If we fade into isolationism again, or even partial isolationism, we will pay a bitter price, and another president will be delivering another memorial address on a foreign beach.

June 6, 2011       Permalink

RICK IS IN – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  Former Republican Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has just announced his candidacy for president.

Santorum is clearly a second-tier candidate.  I've always liked him and the clarity of his arguments, but his appeal is limited to the ideological right.  He was defeated in 2006 for releection to the Senate by Bob Casey, by a wide margin.

I'm guessing, with no proof, that Santorum's real motive here is to stay in the news and run for the Senate again, but I stress that this is pure speculation.  From Fox:

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum announced Monday that he is entering the race for the Republican presidential nomination, saying he's "in it win it."

"We're ready to announce that we're going to be in this race," Santorum said on a television news show ahead of a rally in Somerset, Pa. He will then fly to Iowa for events on June 7, and to New Hampshire on June 8-9.

Santorum, the former No. 3 Republican in the U.S. Senate, was to rally at the Somerset County Courthouse, a location that his team said is significant because it is near where Santorum's grandfather settled in the U.S. "after leaving fascist Italy to work in the Pennsylvania coal mines until he was 72 years old. He chose to come to America for the freedom our nation offered him."

COMMENT:  Santorum is issue-oriented, and thoroughly familiar with the issues he chooses to emphasize.  He will always make things interesting.  But his narrow appeal fundamentally limits his potential on the national stage.

June 6, 2011       Permalink

NEW WARNING ON IRAN – AT 8:15 A.M. ET:  We've taken the eye off the ball on Iran.  Its nuclear program has faded into the media background, and the Obama administration barely mentions it.  Obama's recent "major" speech on the Mideast hardly brought it up.

That doesn't change the facts on the ground, and the potential extreme danger to us.  From Reuters:

The UN atomic watchdog has received further information regarding activities that "seem to point to the existence" of possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program, the agency's head said on Monday.

"There are indications that certain of these activities may have continued until recently," Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in a speech to the agency's 35-nation governing board.

The phrasing is odd.  I assume that what he means by "continued until recently" is that he doesn't have information after a certain date.

Amano's statement underlined the UN body's concern that the Islamic Republic may be working to develop a nuclear-armed missile. Tehran rejects such suspicions, saying its nuclear program has only civilian aims, mainly generating electricity...

...For several years, the IAEA has been investigating Western intelligence reports indicating Iran had coordinated efforts to process uranium, test explosives at high altitude and revamp a ballistic missile cone so it can take a nuclear warhead.

COMMENT:  Of course Iran has a military nuclear ambition.  There'd be no other reason for the kind of nuclear program it has developed.  And none of the sanctions regimes that have been directed at Iran have worked.  An ideological regime will absorb the sanctions damage and push on with the program.

I've always believed that the danger from Iran isn't necessarily in nuclear-tipped missiles, but in the placement of a nuclear device aboard a ship, and sailing it into an American harbor, then setting it off.  As an alternative, Iran might fire a short-range missile, much easier to develop than an ICBM, from a ship 50 miles off our shore.

The Iranians do not seem to be stoppable at this stage.  I suspect that only regime change – the toppling of the mullahs by a revolution – can alter the Iranian course.

June 6, 2011     Permalink

JUNE 5,  2011

ANOTHER BRILLIANT IDEA – AT 11:46 P.M. ET:  Why didn't I think of this?  I can kick myself.  It's just what we need – higher transportation costs:

BONN, Germany, June 5 (Reuters) - The World Bank will suggest a global levy on jet and shipping fuel in recommendations to G20 governments later this year on raising climate finance, a senior official said on Sunday.

Developed countries have already written off chances of agreement on a new binding deal at a U.N. conference in Durban this year, placing a new focus on piecemeal efforts including fund-raising.

Binding targets under the Kyoto Protocol cap the greenhouse gas emissions of nearly 40 industrialised countries but expire in 2012 and now look unlikely to be extended in time.

The World Bank is focusing on a levy on shipping and jet fuels in a report to G20 finance minister in October, among other efforts to keep climate action on track.

"We are looking at carbon emissions-based sources ... including bunker (shipping) fuels and aviation fuels, that would be internationally coordinated albeit nationally collected," said Andrew Steer, World Bank special envoy for climate change.

COMMENT:  Do these worthies understand the meaning of the term "global depression"?  Or even "global disaster"?  There may well be some climate change, but until we nail down the science, if there is any, one of the worst things we can do is threaten the fragile, weakening, international economy.  Who do you think will be hurt most by this?  Of course, it's the poor and the marginal. 

And someone will make a lot of money on this gimmick.  It always happens.

Terrible idea.

June 5, 2011       Permalink

Y'SEE, THE CALCULATOR RAN OUT OF BATTERIES – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  Stories like this require various medications to keep us calm after reading.  From London's Daily Mail:

The U.S. is providing hundreds of millions of dollars of foreign aid to some of the world's richest countries - while at the same time borrowing billions back, according to report seen by Congress.

The Congressional Research Service released the report last month which shows that in 2010 the U.S. handed out a total of $1.4bn to 16 foreign countries that held at least $10bn in Treasury securities.

Four countries in the world's top 10 richest received foreign aid last year with China receiving $27.2m, India $126.6m, Brazil $25m, and Russia $71.5m.

Mexico also received $316.7m and Egypt $255.7m.

And yet despite the massive outgoings in foreign aid, the receiving countries hold trillions of dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds.

China is the largest holder with $1.1trillion as of March, according to the Treasury Department.
Brazil held $193.5bn, Russia $127.8bn, India $39.8bn, Mexico $28.1bn and Egypt had $15.3bn.

COMMENT:  But who cares, right?  The people who got us into this mess don't consider that the people's money.  They consider it the government's money.  That is their mentality, which is why they do the things they do. 

This requires a Congressional investigation.  It also requires some serious press coverage, with detailed cases examined.  We hope for the former.  I have no hope for the latter.

June 5, 2011       Permalink

SARAH SNAPS BACK – AT 11:11 A.M. ET:  One thing about Sarah Palin, she's learned how to snap back at the media, and we mightily applaud her.

You may have seen, in the last few days, a media tsunami against Sarah, launched by a column in the Washington Post, tut tutting her about a "mistake" she allegedly made in describing the role of Paul Revere in the American revolution.  Smug journalists laughed when Sarah said that Revere had warned the British about events to come.  Why, every American schoolkid knows that she warned the colonists. Didn't he?  Uh...  From The Politico:

After a week on the road visiting national monuments and historical sites, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin repeated her claim Sunday that Revolutionary War hero Paul Revere had warned the British that they weren’t going to take firearms away from Americans.

“I didn’t mess up about Paul Revere,” Palin told “Fox News Sunday” host Chris Wallace when asked about her gaffe made last week while her “One Nation” bus tour stopped in Boston.

Note, please, that The Politico casually repeats the "fact" that she committed a gaffe. 

“He warned the Americans that the British were coming, the British were coming, that we‘ve got to make sure we were protecting ourselves and shoring up all of our ammunitions and firearms so that they couldn’t take it,” Palin said.

“But remember, the British had already been there for seven years in that area, and part of Paul Revere’s ride – and it wasn’t just one ride, he was a courier, he was a messenger – was to warn the British who were already there, that you’re not going to succeed, you’re not going to take American arms, you’re not going to be your own well-armed person’s private militia that we are going to have. He did warn the British.

“In a shout-out, gotcha type of question that was asked of me, I answered candidly and I know my American history,” she added.

COMMENT:  It may be an uncommon take on the Revolution, but Sarah is fundamentally correct, and the press is fundamentally wrong.

But don't expect any corrections.  The media loves to correct minor mistakes.  If it gets someone's middle initial wrong, it rushes to correct it, the better to show integrity, conscience, goodness and godliness.  But if it gets something seriously wrong, like the reporting of the Vietnam War, the media "stands by our story."  It adopts its "narrative" and protects it.  Careers are involved.  Prizes are involved.  The truth is what we make it.

Look, I don't think Sarah Palin is a great expert on American history.  But the double standard by which she's judged is a media scandal.   Barack Obama can make one mistake after another, and the press never calls him out.  He can commit gaffes – like saying that they speak Austrian in Austria, when in fact they speak German.  No one cares.  Why?  Because he's Barack, and he's so smart, and he went to the right schools. 

Our press is far more embarrassing than anything Sarah Palin ever said.

June 5, 2011       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:47 A.M. ET:  He stands pretty well in the polls, far better than many on our side imagine.

While the "bin Laden bounce" may be gone from Mr. Obama's poll ratings, he still retains the gains he's made since the November election, in which his party got trounced.  In fact, Obama is moving into the kind of territory from which successful reelection bids are launched.  Hate to bring you the bad news.

Scott Rasmussen today reports the following:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-five percent (35%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10.

Looks bad for Obama...until we realize that scores of -16 or so were common just months ago.

Overall, 50% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove.

Again, looks like the president is struggling...until we realize that it was routine, just months ago, to have the president losing that matchup by about five points.

The latest Rasmussen survey was taken before the full impact of this last week's economic announcements was felt.  His current second honeymoon may not last.  But it's foolish to deny the obvious, that Mr. Obama has been making steady progress in the polls despite the onslaught from GOP candidates and spokesmen. 

We have work to do.

June 5, 2011     Permalink