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JUNE 19,  2011

THE ENDORSEMENT FROM HELL – AT 11:51 P.M. ET:  President Obama has received a major endorsement for his reelection campaign.  I'm not so sure he wants it. 

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev dismissed talk of a deepening rift with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in remarks published Monday, strongly hinting they would not run against each other for president next year.

In a Financial Times interview, he also said he hoped Barack Obama, who has helped improve Russian-U.S. ties, would win a new term as U.S. president next year.

Improve?  Seems to me they're more belligerent than they've been in years.  Maybe they just realize they're getting away with it.

Medvedev, steered into the Kremlin by Putin in 2008 when he was barred from a third straight term, has made veiled criticism of his predecessor and emphasized the need for change, stoking speculation of growing discord ahead of the March 2012 election.

In what many investors saw as a campaign speech Friday, he warned against one-man rule and hinted that the stability Putin boasts of bringing to Russia could lead to stagnation.

COMMENT:  As an endorser, the Russian president ranks right up there with Hugo Chavez and Anthony Weiner.  I don't think you'll see Medvedev's quote on any Obama billboards.

June 19, 2011       Permalink

A WARNING FROM BRITAIN – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  John McCain, see post just below, is warning of isolationism.  One ingredient of isolationism is the hollowing out of national defense.  Just look at what is happening in Britain, which is being run by a presumably conservative government.  From the Daily Mail:

The armed forces have had an unexpected shock as the Army braces itself for a mass exodus of officers and soldiers.

One thousand of the Army’s brightest servicemen have applied for voluntary redundancy.

Army bosses originally asked for 500 servicemen to take voluntary redundancy, but have received more than 900 applications, according to figures obtained by The Daily Telegraph.

This number includes 52 colonels, although only 25 had been expected to offer to leave.

Low morale and the pending defence cuts are cited as the reason why so many soldiers and officers want to leave.

Colonel Bob Stewart, who was commanding officer of the British battalion in Bosnia, said that the balance in Army life has changed.

‘The state of army morale is clearly not good. Exercises and the fun of being in the Army has largely been cut down.’

And...

The defence budget is set to fall by eight per cent over the next four years. The MoD is to cut its civilian personnel by 25,000 by 2015 and Army numbers will be reduced by 7,000 to 95,500.

A report is due to be published next month on how more personnel and equipment programmes could be axed.

COMMENT:  Britain's force is being reduced to the level where it will no longer be effective.  The Royal Navy has become a shadow of what it once was.  Even the RAF is in for substantial cuts.

And where will the "savings" go?  Well, Britain has become a welfare state.  Guess.

We've written here before that there are two Britains – Churchill's Britain and the other one.  I'm afraid the other one is winning.

And it can happen here.  Remember, that as the Japanese were bombing Pearl Harbor, the United States ranked 15th in the armies of the world.  As the World War II generation fades into history, we may well forget that disgrace.

June 19, 2011       Permalink

THE MAVERICK IS RIGHT – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Good for John McCain!  He's speaking out against the isolationist drift within some elements of his own party.  We heard hints of that in the debate Monday night.  From The Politico:

Via Playbook, John McCain raps the Republican presidential field for what he sees as an isolationist strain that's emerging as the candidates shift away from strict hawkishness on foreign policy, and which cropped up at the New Hampshire debate last Monday.

From the pre-taped interview with "This Week:"

McCAIN: “Well, I was more concerned about what the candidates in New Hampshire the other night said. This is isolationism. There's always been an … isolationist strain in the Republican Party — that Pat Buchanan wing of our party. But now it seems to have moved more center stage, so to speak. … If we had not intervened, Gadhafi was at the gates of Benghazi. He said he was going to go house to house to kill everybody. That's a city of 700,000 people. What would be saying now if we had allowed for that to happen?”

AMANPOUR: “Well, you were one of the key supports. And what you're talking is all the Republicans on the stage of that debate on Monday seeming to waver from what's a traditional Republican position on national security.”

McCAIN: “Yes, I wonder what Ronald Reagan would be saying today.”

AMANPOUR: “What would he be saying today? If he heard, for instance, Michele Bachmann or Mitt Romney?”

McCAIN: “He would be saying: That's not the Republican Party of the 20th century, and now the 21st Century. That is not the Republican Party that has been willing to stand up for freedom for people for all over the world, whether it be in Grenada — that Ronald Reagan had a quick operation about — or whether it be in our enduring commitment to countering the Soviet Union.”

McCain is correct.  One can, of course, legitimately differ about particular operations, and some may go very wrong, or take longer than we'd believed.  But isolationism was a catastrophic failure in the 1930s, and will be a failure again.  It simply allows the thugs of this world to build their power unimpeded, and eventually unleash it on us or our allies.  It is especially dangerous when dealing with an ideology-based enemy, such as militant Islam, whose goals never change.

It is active, constant American involvement, sometimes at great cost, that allowed the United States, along with some allies, to win the Cold War without a world war.  And it is the active involvement of the United States since 9-11 that has, in my view, prevented another successful attack on the United States.  Yes, it's frustrating.  Yes, it's risky, and yes, it costs a fortune.  But what would the world be without the United States, and our willingness to carry a heavy load?  Madeleine Albright, whom we usually don't quote here, was correct when she called us "the indispensable nation."

June 19, 2011      Permalink   

NOT LEFT-WING ENOUGH – AT 8:37 A.M. ET:  That is the judgment of the leftist nutbags who are complaining that President Obama, the most left-wing president in American history, isn't far enough out there.  From the Washington Times:

As President Obama shifts increasingly into reelection mode, he is feeling persistent anger and discontent from the left as well as the right.

White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer was heckled and booed Friday at the annual Netroots Nation conference in Minnesota, a gathering of liberal activists from the online political community. When Mr. Pfeiffer reminded the audience that the president championed an equal-pay law, the moderator replied, “Frankly we’re a little sick of hearing about that one.”

It's probably wrong to label this group as "liberal."  The word is overused.  They really are left-wing, much closer to the socialist crowd in Europe. 

While various liberal groups are unhappy that Mr. Obama hasn’t done more for gay rights or withdrawn troops from Afghanistan, the weak economy is at the forefront of the unrest.

COMMENT:  Although the White House may laugh off left-wing criticism, you may be sure that Mr. Obama's political team is taking it seriously.  Remember that Hubert Humphrey, "Mr. Liberal," was defeated by Richard Nixon for the presidency by a razor-thin margin in 1968 largely because part of the Democratic base stayed home, angered by Humphrey's support of the Vietnam War. 

Netroots Nation is far from the mainstream of American politics, but the nuts within Netroots do vote.  If they stay home, it could possibly have a significant effect on the 2012 election.

June 19, 2011     Permalink

JUNE 18,  2011

PERRY WHIPS IT UP – AT 11:47 P.M. ET:  Governor Rick Perry of Texas, who seems to be inching closer to entering the presidential sweepstakes, whipped them up at the decidedly conservative Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans.

Please note that the name is deceptive.  It's just a label.  They hold a straw poll each year after every conference, and the winner this year was Ron Paul, which should give you some idea what planet the conference is on.  Paul is known to haul in busloads of supporters for the poll.  From The New York Times:

NEW ORLEANS — Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, the latest Republican to muse openly about exploring a Republican presidential candidacy, drew booming applause here on Saturday for not only assailing President Obama but also lecturing some members of his own party on the importance of socially conservative principles.

“It saddens me, sometimes, when my fellow Republicans duck and cover in the face of pressure from the left,” Mr. Perry said, urging activists not to separate economic and social priorities. “We need to redouble our efforts to elect more conservative Republicans.”

In an appearance at the Republican Leadership Conference, which served as something of a debut for Mr. Perry’s presidential ambitions, hundreds of delegates chanted, “Run, Rick, run!” He smiled, waved and basked in the enthusiasm but did not say whether he would answer their call to join the party’s unsettled field of presidential candidates.

Mr. Perry, who succeeded George W. Bush as governor and was elected to a third term last year, had long maintained that he had no interest in running for president. But in recent weeks, he has signaled that he is reconsidering and trying to determine if there is still time to piece together a credible candidacy.

COMMENT:  Perry, who started political life as a Democrat, is a terrific campaigner who has never lost an election.  He would run on a record of job creation, in which Texas leads the nation.  On paper he's great.

Perry has two major problems:  First, he may not translate outside Texas.  He tends to sound local rather than national, and his views place him way to the right on the political spectrum.  Winning independents nationally will be the key to the 2012 election, and that may be a tough road for Perry.

Second, Perry's record of job creation will be researched up and down by the Obama brigades.  What kind of jobs were created?  Low paying?  High paying?  What was the cost of creating those job?  Texas has a massive $24-billion budget deficit.  And, in order to keep taxes low, Texas spends less per child on education than almost any other American state.  You can almost hear the Democratic attack lines.

There is much enthusiasm for Perry because of his campaigning ability, and I put a great emphasis on that.  You can't beat Obama with a weak campaigner.  But I want to see a lot more before I have both hands clapping.  Ronald Reagan won because he could appeal nationally.  Can Perry?

June 18, 2011       Permalink

SYRIA CRISIS DEEPENS – AT 11:25 A.M. ET:  The situation in Syria has become horrible, but the only response of the "international community" is condemnation, which isn't cutting it with the Syrian dictator.  From the Jerusalem Post:

The UK on Saturday urged British nationals to leave Syria immediately as violence continued between government forces and anti-regime protesters, the Guardian reported.

The British Foreign Office said UK citizens in Syria should leave by commercial flight while that was still a possibility because the embassy could not likely help if the situation continued to deteriorate. The statement added that evacuation options would be limited going forward.

The British announcement came as Syrian troops and gunmen loyal to President Bashar Assad stormed a town near the Turkish border, burning houses and arresting 70 people, witnesses said, in a wide-ranging military assault to crush a three month uprising.

"They came at 7 a.m. to Bdama. I counted nine tanks, 10 armoured carriers, 20 jeeps and 10 buses. I saw shabbiha (gunmen) setting fire to two houses," said Saria Hammouda, a lawyer from the small town of Bdama.

The town lies 2 km from the Turkish border, in Jisr al-Shughour region, from where thousands of people have fled to Turkey following military assaults to quell dissent against 41 years of Assad family rule

In Lebanon, the Lebanese army clamped down on two sectarian districts of a northern city on Saturday after a rally in support of anti-government protesters in Syria triggered deadly clashes between rival gunmen.

Lebanon is under the thumb of Syria. 

19 Syrians died on Friday when Syrian government forces fired at demonstrators demanding the removal of President Bashar Assad in the biggest protest since unrest against Baathist rule erupted in March, activists said.

European powers, which had initiated a detente with Assad prior to the street protests to try to draw the Syrian leader away from Iran and also stabilize Lebanon, said Damascus should face tougher sanctions for the violence.

Yeah, right.  Just as sanctions have worked against Iran. 

This is getting worse.  Obama seems as detached as usual.  There is a good chance that Assad will survive this, just as his father survived after ordering a wholesale slaughter in the Syrian city of Hama in 1982.  Most of the world is usually interested only in who wins.

Our influence, ever since Obama took office and started appeasing the Arab world, seems less than ever.

June 18, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:01 A.M. ET:   Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour is one of this country's great political resources.  I think he probably knows more about American politics, and how to do American politics, than anyone else.  He is warning, properly, about the demands of some for ideological purity in a Republican candidate for president.  He should be listened to.  From the New Orleans Times-Picayune:

...Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a former national party chairman, delivered a stern warning to Republican Leadership Conference delegates: Don't look for perfection in the potential nominees and don't even think about drafting a third-party candidate when the nomination fight is done.

"Don't get hung up on purity," he said. "In politics, purity is a loser. ... In this business, it is unity that wins elections. ... Barack Obama has worn out three sets of knee pads down his knees praying for the tea party to become a third party, because he can't lose."

Barbour, who has already announced that he isn't running for president, didn't call any of the announced candidates by name. But the warning was clearly a recognized party elder trying to navigate the disparate movements on display at the three-day conference that culminates Saturday with the announcement of a straw poll of more than 2,000 delegates.

COMMENT:  The genius of American politics is that it's practical.  Americans want effective, quick, practical solutions.  They are not very much interested in ideology, and, to their credit, they tend to reject extremes.   Fiorello LaGuardia, the great mayor of New York, once said that there's no Democratic or Republican way to pick up the garbage.

Clearly, we want our candidates to have an identifiable point of view, and one that we favor as voters.  But rigid ideology is something else.  Contrary to myth, Ronald Reagan was a very practical conservative who avoided rigidity.  Barbour quoted Reagan:

He added an axiom he attributed to former President Ronald Reagan, "Remember that a fella who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and ally; he's not a 20-percent traitor."

Very solid.

June 18, 2011        Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:42 A.M. ET:  We prefer using the Rasmussen survey as our poll of choice here because Scott polls likely voters, the most reliable measure of what may happen in an election.  By that measure, President Obama is in serious trouble.

The president enjoyed a brief spurt of popularity after the bin Laden raid, but now is slipping back badly, alarmingly if you're a Democrat, to some of his worst numbers.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 21% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20.

And...

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-five (55%) at least somewhat disapprove.

We haven't seen numbers like that since April 11th. 

This tends to confirm the trend we've seen from other polls.  The Gallup poll showed a generic Republic defeating Mr. Obama right now.  Trouble is, there's no such thing as a generic Republican.  The GOP candidate will have a name, which may either be our fortune or misfortune. 

Clearly, the president's numbers can turn around if the economy starts to gain.  So far, we've seen no sign of that.

June 18, 2011     Permalink