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MARCH 16,  2011

DO ARABS SECRETLY LOVE US? – AT 9:17 P.M. ET:  It's become increasingly clear that the whiner brigades who complained about every foreign-policy action that George W. Bush took were wildly wrong.  We were told that the Arabs hated us for intervening in the Mideast, but the Wall Street Journal powerfully argues that, in fact, they like the pax Americana, and are sending that message:

The Arab League's call this weekend for a no-fly zone over Libya is startling news and has sent diplomats scattering. We'll now see if the "international community" (to use the Obama Administration's favorite phrase) decides anything before Moammar Gadhafi's forces overrun the rebel stronghold in Benghazi. The odds favor Gadhafi.

But the 22-member league's decision also tells us a lot about Arab views of U.S. power. Throughout the Libyan crisis, we've heard from pundits and politicians that the Iraq war tarnished brand America beyond repair, and made U.S. leadership non grata in the Mideast. Both President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have insisted that the U.N., NATO, the Europeans, Arabs, anyone but Washington take the initiative on Libya.

The Arab League is begging them to reconsider this abdication. With the unsurprising exceptions of Iranian client Syria and Libya's neighbor Algeria, the group took the extraordinary step of calling publicly for American intervention in the affairs of an Arab state.

And...

The weekend decision confirmed what we've heard privately from Arab leaders for years about America's continued engagement in the Middle East. The only people who suffer from an "Iraq syndrome" are American liberals and the Western European chattering classes. The pro-Western Gulf or North African allied states have nothing to gain in seeing American influence or military power devalued in their region—either by others, or as is the current fad in Washington, through American self-abnegation.

That's a good dose of common sense.  No, the Arabs may not love us, but they respect our power, in a part of the world where power counts.  And they know how critical that power can be.

Now, they don't see it any longer.

For the proverbial "Arab street," the defeat of the Libyan uprising would be a dispiriting coda to this springtime of democratic revolutions. If he survives, Gadhafi will have taught other dictators that the next time young people demand accountable leadership, turn your guns on them and exploit American diffidence.

Did you ever think you'd see the day when our country behaves like this?  Well, of course we saw it in the late 70s, and we saw it when Congress disgracefully cut off aid to our South Vietnamese allies, basically forcing them into defeat.

Not by coincidence, Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf states on Monday sent military forces into Bahrain to help put down an uprising by the majority Shiites against the Sunni monarchy, which yesterday declared a state of emergency. The Saudis fear that the Bahrain contagion, perhaps fueled by Iran, will spread to them.

But their intervention also reflects a lack of confidence that America will assert itself in the region. Remarkably, the Saudis ignored U.S. advice not to intervene in Bahrain. They don't believe they can count on the U.S. to stop an imperial Iran. When the U.S. fails to lead, every nation recalibrates its interests and begins to look out for itself first.

Not exactly change we can believe in.  And look forward to this weekend, when the president, the first lady, and their two children are photographed seeing the sights in Rio.  Real inspiring to the people who thought Obama was a demigod, sent to save us.

March 16, 2011       Permalink

OBAMA'S PATH TO 2012 – SLIPPERY – AT 9:07 P.M. ET:  A.B. Stoddard, in The Hill, gives a convincing analysis of President Obama's political situation, and finds it shaky, even if the GOP nominates a less-than-ideal candidate.  Good reading:

Clinging to their compliments regarding former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s (R) healthcare law, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman’s (R) fine work as ambassador to China and the prospect that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) will somehow be nominated by the GOP, Team Obama has begun to accept that the audacity of hoping for an anemic Republican field won’t get President Obama reelected in 2012.

As the Republican race begins in earnest, and Obama kicks off his own reelection campaign, it is increasingly clear that the path to an Obama victory is anything but clear. Stubborn joblessness, soaring gas prices, the still-rising cost of healthcare insurance, the apathy of Obama supporters, the erosion of support from white working-class and suburban voters and the considerable sums of secret money conservatives promise to pour into the campaign all pose challenges to his plan to win again. Taken together, they might be insurmountable.

From Stoddard's word processor to you know whose ears, or eyes.  But I still believe in fighting like you're 20 points behind.

The traditional demographics that favor Democrats are also no longer a given — Latinos aren’t likely to see any action on immigration reform before the election, the GOP made history by winning women in the midterm elections and Obama’s approval among young voters entering or navigating a perilous job market has dropped 21 points since he entered office, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll.

Add to that the overall perception that the commander-in-chief isn't much of a commander and doesn't act much like a chief.

COMMENT:  I hope Stoddard is on solid ground, but I hate to see a Republican victory on the backs of suffering Americans.  The GOP, for its own self-respect, must lay out a positive program for America.  It can't be all criticism.  This current session of Congress will tell us a great deal about how effective the new Republican leadership is.

March 16, 2011       Permalink

IS MARCO MAKING HIS MOVE? – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:  We've said here before that the Republican cast of presidential characters for 2012 isn't very exciting.   The GOP, we've said, may have to reach down to the next generation to find a candidate who can wake things up, and we've suggested Marco Rubio, the new senator from Florida.

Now, Rubio may be making his move.  From The Politico:

With a landmark spending debate engulfing Washington, the Florida Republican has, virtually overnight, launched the national profile the conservative movement has been clamoring for.

During his first national interview Monday, Rubio pounced on President Barack Obama — from the friendly confines of Laura Ingraham’s conservative radio show. He blasted a statement to the media, pledging to vote against the Republicans’ short-term spending resolution and calling it a “nickle-and-dime” approach. And he’s vowed to vote against everything that comes through the Senate unless it deals with addressing the $14 trillion debt crisis.

Rubio has even given up an apparent Twitter moratorium, tweeting this week for the first time since his victory last November.

“Politicians in D.C. won’t deal with the debt,” he wrote.

For tea party and other conservative activists, this is the Rubio they’ve been waiting for.

“Marco Rubio has had it, and it hasn’t taken long for Marco Rubio to have had it,” conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh said on his show Tuesday. “Marco Rubio says, ‘What is this continuing resolution crap? I didn’t come in here to fund the government every two to three weeks, and $6 billion here and $6 billion there. What the hell is going on here?’”

“Wish the damn guy, wish the guy would run for president,” Limbaugh added.

COMMENT:  It may happen.  But, if he does, Rubio must not permit himself to be a captive of any faction.  He has broad appeal.  He won his Senate seat in Florida easily.  The first thing the Dems would do would be to try to tag Rubio as an extremist, or a Tea Party lackey.  I think the guy has the smarts to avoid the label.

Marco Rubio is a Cuban-American.  He would be the first Cuban-American to run for president, and he surely would have an appeal to Hispanics.  The Democrats need the Hispanic vote to win a national election.  Rubio could deny it to them.  Besides, he's a campaigner equal to Obama, and that's what is needed.

March 16, 2011       Permalink

ECHOES OF CARTER – AT 10:04 A.M. ET:  More and more, Obama is morphing into Jimmy ("I'm the best ex-president ever") Carter:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Wholesale prices jumped last month by the most in nearly two years due to higher energy costs and the steepest rise in food prices in 36 years. Excluding those volatile categories, inflation was tame.

The Labor Department said Wednesday that the Producer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.6 percent in February -- double the 0.8 percent rise in the previous month. Outside of food and energy costs, the core index ticked up 0.2 percent, less than January's 0.5 percent rise.

Food prices soared 3.9 percent last month, the biggest gain since November 1974. Most of that increase was due to a sharp rise in vegetable costs, which increased nearly 50 percent. That was the most in almost a year. Meat and dairy products also rose.

Energy prices rose 3.3 percent last month, led by a 3.7 percent increase in gasoline costs.

COMMENT:  All we need is for Iran to take some Americans hostage and we'll have a true sequel to the Carter administration. 

Oh wait, there's a difference:  Carter didn't get his Nobel Peace Prize until decades after he left office.  Obama got his while his hand was still raised, taking the inaugural oath.  Can't think of too many other differences.

March 16, 2011       Permalink

TERRIFIC, TERRIFIC – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Ed Lasky of American Thinker refers us to this great piece by Rick Richman at Commentary called "Lessons from Libya for Dictators in Distress":  You must read this:

1. If you want to remain in power, you need to do more than send a man on a camel into crowds. Declare war on your people; hire other people to help out.

2. Do not worry if the U.S. president says you must “step down” and “leave.” It is only his personal opinion.

3. To ensure that the president does not focus unduly on your war, schedule it while he is preoccupied with other matters: a Motown concert, a conference on bullying, his golf game, and finalizing his Final Four picks.

4. Declare that the opposition is not “organic.” The president will not assist a non-organic revolution. If the revolution is organic, do not worry: an organic revolution is by definition one he does not need to assist. Either way, you’re fine.

5. Recognize that your membership on the UN Human Rights Council will be suspended — the president will send his secretary of state there to ensure that. Do not start a war against your people if you are not prepared for this.

6. Do not worry about a “no-fly zone” or some other U.S. military response. The president will consider it only if the world speaks with one voice. The world includes Russia, China, and Turkey.

7. Remember when the president adopted his Afghanistan policy after an extensive “review;” selected his own general to implement it; got the general’s recommendations; and then held endless meetings before finally reluctantly approving them? That was about a war he was already in. He will need many more meetings than that before he considers any new action against you.

8. You may eventually be subject to sanctions, so check to see if they’ve worked yet with Cuba, North Korea, or Iran.

9. Consider restarting your nuclear program, since the conditions that caused you to suspend it are gone. At most, the president will form a committee of several nations to talk to you; he will consider more sanctions if the world speaks as one. You need not worry about his “deadlines.”

10. There is basically only one thing you do need to worry about: do not, under any circumstances, approve any future Jewish housing in Jerusalem. The president will go ballistic if you do.

COMMENT: Very good advice. 

Does anyone take Obama seriously anymore?  The man is making a mockery of the presidency.   He is now the object of jokes.

March 16, 2011       Permalink

JAPAN'S ANGUISH – 8:57 A.M. ET:  Oh, does anyone remember there was an earthquake in Japan?  And a tsunami?  You'd barely know it from some of the hysterical reporting about the nuclear issue.  We certainly don't mean to diminish the importance of this issue, or of possible radiation releases, but the end of the world is not really near. 

We actually don't know much about what's happening to the crippled reactors in Japan except that technicians are working the problem, and that there has been some radiation released.  What counts, of course, is the amount released, the type, and the geographic area affected.  I wish the press would remind readers and viewers that we used to explode hydrogen bombs in the atmosphere, and, while that is clearly undesirable, the world survived, and life expectancy has increased in most places.

The New York Times, in a rational moment, at least gives us this knowledgeable report on the realistic prospects for health damage:

Worsening conditions at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan have raised fears that people will be harmed by radiation. But experts say that in terms of public health, the Japanese have already taken precautions that should prevent the accident from becoming another Chernobyl, even if additional radiation is released.

The great tragedy of Chernobyl was an epidemic of thyroid cancer among people exposed to the radiation as children — more than 6,000 cases so far, with more expected for many years to come. There is no reason for it to be repeated in Japan.

The epidemic in Chernobyl was preventable and would probably not have happened if people had been told to stop drinking locally produced milk, which was by far the most important source of radiation. Cows ate grass contaminated by fallout from the reactors and secreted radioactive iodine in their milk.

This story must be followed hour by hour.  It's being reported like a horse race, which it isn't.  There will be some damage from radiation.  The extent is what we don't know.  We also don't know the implications for American nuclear power.  That debate has barely begun, and you may be certain that political scientists will far outnumber real scientists when it reaches full decibel level.

March 16, 2011      Permalink

BARELY NOTICED – AT 8:43 A.M. ET:  Amidst the continuing nuclear drama in Japan, the desperate plight of Libyan rebels is being forgotten.  Hey, yesterday's news.  No longer trendy.  I mean, my Gawd, we have a chance to put another nail in the coffin of nuclear energy.  Who cares about some ragtag Arabs who've never been to Aspen? 

Yet, the British and the French, having been rebuffed by other nations, including our own, are trying to organize some military assistance to the rebels, as President Obama prepares for a good-food trip to Latin America later this week.

France's foreign minister said on Wednesday that several Arab countries have pledged to take part in possible military action in Libya.

Alain Juppe says France and Britain have sought targeted air strikes on Libya, a move which would require approval from the United Nations Security Council and participation by Arab states.

Juppe wrote on his blog Wednesday that "several Arab countries assured us that they will participate." He didn't elaborate any more than that.

The French foreign ministry said it wasn’t enough for countries to say long-time Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi must step down, they must also help opponents to his dictatorship.

That last comment was directed at Obama, and the collapse of his leadership. 

But, realistically, the chances of the Security Council approving any action are slim, and the rebels can't hold out much longer.  What we are seeing is a policy collapse by the free nations of significant proportions, and, as Fouad Ajami has said, we will pay a painful price down the line. 

But the president of the United States, this pathetic little man, apparently doesn't care.

March 16, 2011     Permalink

MARCH 15,  2011

OBAMA'S EXQUISITE TIMING – AT 8:55 P.M. ET:  Another exciting example of Barack Obama's priorities.  Never let 1) a budget crisis in the U.S. or 2) a nuclear crisis in Japan or 3) rebellions in the Mideast, from ruining a pefectly neat trip to a warm place with good food and terrific dancing.  Travel report from The Politico:

The crisis in Japan, the unresolved budget wars at home and continuing unrest in the Middle East have raised questions about whether President Obama will continue with business as usual on his trip to Latin America this weekend.

At a briefing with reporters on Tuesday, White House press secretary Jay Carney said no plans have changed, global crises notwithstanding.

“Obviously, the trip is on, and the president will be going to Latin America, and he's looking forward to having discussions with leaders in the region about our bilateral relationship,” Carney said.

Carney insisted that Obama is “capable” of maintaining contact with Washington throughout the trip, and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon will be traveling with him as well.

Yeah, just bring that iPhone along.  And if it gets lost, the iPad sends e-mails.

Asked by The Wall Street Journal’s Laura Meckler whether it was “awkward” for Obama to go to Latin America while “the rest of the world is exploding,” Carney, a little piqued, dismissed the question.

“Laura, he's the president of the United States,” he said. “And there are major issues all the time that the president has to contend with, which is one of the reasons why he has such a substantial support framework around him when he travels.”

COMMENT:  It's the appearances, Mr. Carney.  The appearances.  This trip, to vacation wonderlands like Brazil, can be put off.  The president's place right now is Washington, where he can call in any adviser for a face-to-face if needed.

George W. Bush was criticized for staying away from Washington for a day or so after the 9-11 attacks.  This president will go on a foreign trip despite crises breaking out all over and a growing reputation for indiffence of weak leadership.  He's either listening to the wrong people or not taking the advice of the right ones.

Ronald Reagan always understood the importance of symbolism.  This chap doesn't.

March 15, 2011      Permalink

A TALE OF SEVERAL POLLS – AT 8:27 P.M. ET:  We reported earlier that President Obama was registering only 43% approval in the daily Rasmussen poll.  Now along come two other polls showing him much stronger – a CNN poll has the president at 50%, and an ABC/Washington Post poll says 51% approve.

Why the dramatic differences between Rasmussen and the others? 

It's in the methodology.  Both CNN and ABC/Washington post take their surveys among "all adults," whereas Rasmussen polls only "likely voters," a far more significant sample.  Rasmussen explains the difference here:

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.

The method goes far toward determining the result.  Recall that in 1936 Liberty Magazine conducted a telephone poll that predicted that Alf Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt for the presidency.  The reason the poll was so wildly wrong was that Roosevelt's strength came mostly from the economic classes that didn't have telephones.  Thus, the poll was weighted toward likely Republican voters.

I'd go with Rasmussen.  Elections are decided by voters, not by "all adults."

March 15, 2011     Permalink

REMEMBER LIBYA? – AT 10:27 A.M. ET:  With attention focused on Japan, the civil war in Libya continues, and it's apparent that, day by day, Gadaffi is winning:

(CNN) -- Forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi have wrested control of the town of Zuwara from rebels, an opposition spokesman and an eyewitness told CNN Tuesday.

Separately on Tuesday, at least two airstrikes were reported targeting the eastern city of Ajdabiya by pro-Gadhafi military jets, eyewitnesses told CNN. Ajdabiya is one of the cities between pro-government forces and the opposition stronghold in Benghazi. If Ajdabiya is retaken by government forces, it would give pro-Gadhafi forces access to roads leading to the heart of the opposition's base.

Pro-Gadhafi forces with tanks and heavy artillery forcibly entered Zuwara Monday, clashing with rebels for several hours before subduing the town, the sources said.

Troops entered the town around 9 p.m. Monday and began shooting randomly into buildings, the opposition spokesman said, declining to be named for his safety. He is in Zuwara.

COMMENT:  In the meantime, The United States continues "consulting" with its allies.  An Arab League call for a no-fly zone over Libya – an extraordinary move for the Arab League – is being politely rebuffed, at least for now.  While France and Germany are in favor, and Barack Obama is voting "present," Germany, Italy and Turkey are opposed.  There will be further "consultations," perhaps ending in 2014 or so. 

And Saudi troops are now in Bahrain, to protect the local king.  Heartwarming.

March 15, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN:  OBAMA'S POLL NUMBERS DROPPING LIKE A ROCK – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen daily tracker just released shows devastating declines for the president, with dramatic declines since last week alone:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 20% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22. That is the president’s lowest rating since September.

And...

Overall, 43% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove.

Of course, the president has been in the low 40s before in approval, and has sprung back.  He was actually at 41% on September 9th.  But there is a steady building up of feeling about this president, and there may be a dive from which he cannot recover.  I don't think that point has been reached, but it will get closer if Mr. Obama continues to fail to lead, or if we suffer a sharp reversal in the economy.

March 15, 2011      Permalink

OBAMA'S DIVE CONTINUES – AT 9:11 A.M. ET:   Amidst the Libya crisis, the Japanese quake, and America's budget dilemma, there is much buzz in the press and across the internet about President Obama's lack of leadership, and, at times, seeming lack of interest.  Obama's reported comment that it would be easier to be president of China has gotten widespread notice, none of it positive.

Fox News sums up the image problem, which, in our view here, is an accurate reflection of the real problem, Barack Obama:

A conflict approaching civil war in Libya. An end-times tsunami in Japan. A Congress that can't reach a budget.
And ... gender inequality?

The topic of President Obama's weekend radio address has raised some eyebrows, as Obama has met mounting crises with the same restraint and cool that characterized his slow-and-steady campaign for president. To some critics, the tone set by the White House in light of recent upheaval may hurt the president's public image.

Amid chaos around the world and on Capitol Hill, Obama's Saturday radio address was devoted to Women's History Month and a call to pass the Paycheck Fairness Act, a proposal meant to address the income gap between men and women. Then, the president went golfing at Andrews Air Force Base.

"I don't know if they don't realize the disconnect and maybe they don't care ... but it does matter," Dana Perino, former White House press secretary under George W. Bush, told Fox News.

Former Bush adviser Karl Rove said that he doesn't "begrudge" the president for taking time out for recreation, but Libya and the budget in particular demand more involvement on Obama's part.

COMMENT:  The old expression applies:  Timing is everything.  Gender equality is a perfectly reasonable subject for a president, but not this week.  The president's radio address did indeed anger many observers.  It seemed like a throwback to the sixties, and a transparent attempt to shore up his base...at a time of major crisis.

Even Chris Matthews, normally an Obama partisan, who once spoke of feeling a tingle going up his leg (or down, I don't recall which) when Obama spoke, now compares Obama to Carter, and it wasn't meant as a compliment.

Niall Ferguson, the Harvard scholar who's emerged as a sane academic commentator on current affairs, has, somewhat angrily, called on Obama to at least give strong moral support to the Arab revolts. 

And even Democrats, like Senators Dianne Feinstein and Joe Manchin, are expressing frustration with the disappearing act in the White House.

And get this, from The Politico: 

PRESIDENT OBAMA is taping his NCAA picks today, and they’ll be revealed tomorrow on ESPN.

Nothing like a good set of priorities.

Further...stand by for poll numbers from Rasmussen, out shortly.  Advance word is that they're devastating.

March 15, 2011       Permalink

DISASTROUS ECONOMIC IMPACT – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:  With so much attention devoted to the possibility of radiation exposure from damaged nuclear plants in Japan, there's a tendency to ignore the economic impact of the quake and tsunami.  Economic damage can also result in human misery, even starvation in some places.  From NBC News:

Japanese stocks plunged 10.6 percent on Tuesday, posting the worst two-day losing streak since 1987, on reports of rising radiation near Tokyo, suggesting any deterioration at a quake-hit nuclear plant could trigger more panic selling led by hedge funds.

And...

During the trading day Japanese officials tried to calm the market to little avail and took measures to reduce short selling, such as placing limits on broker sales of stocks for arbitrage trading.

Americans are properly concerned about the economic impact here, although, being Americans, are thoughts first go to the human impact on the Japanese people.  But clearly, if our economy is affected, the impact could be worldwide, and there could be political effects as well as we move into 2012.

We should note that many Japanese industries are entirely shut down, unable to get materials, their employees unable to get to work because of gasoline shortages. 

Watch our markets today.

March 15, 2011      Permalink

THE MASS CONFUSION – AT 8:32 A.M. ET:  The fact is, we really know very little about what's going on with the Japanese nuclear plants.  We're told of explosions, radiation leakage, and warnings to civilians, but details are still scarce.

The issue, of course, isn't "radiation" in the air, but what kinds of radiation, and the amount.  Obviously, every precaution must be taken.  But please recall that in the worst nuclear-plant accident in the United States, at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, no one died.  It is a time for hard work and precision, not panic or wild stories. 

From CNN:

Sendai, Japan (CNN) -- A deepening crisis at a damaged nuclear power plant compounded the misery in Japan Tuesday as the death toll rose to 2,734 and the stock market plummeted for a second straight day.

In areas decimated by the strongest quake in the country's history, survivors huddled in cramped shelters with temperatures forecast to drop below freezing by Wednesday. And in cities spared the devastation, the specter of radioactive exposure loomed large in rattled residents' minds.

"I think from a sanity standpoint I'm trying to side with the cool-headed point of view because I don't want to think about the possibly of a full-blown meltdown," said Osaki resident Tyler Martin.

Radiation level readings have decreased at the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Tuesday afternoon.

"The level has come down to the level to cause no harm to human health, according to the report I have received," Edano said.

But for many, calming jittery nerves is becoming increasingly difficult as the situation at the damaged facility looks increasingly dire with each passing day.

COMMENT:  No one wishes to minimize the urgency, or the threat, but the CNN report seems rational.  I've seen some well-qualified nuclear scientists on television, and they really can't provide significant answers at this point.  It will take more time before we get a clear picture.  Some speculation seems driven more by political beliefs than by science, and where have we seen that before?

March 15, 2011     Permalink