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MARCH 26,  2011

THE COST OF HIGH TAXES – AT 10:32 P.M. ET:  Many politicians, especially on the state level, refuse to confront the cost of high taxes.  But the cost is very real, and can destroy whole communities.

New York, for example, where Urgent Agenda is written, is a high-tax state.  And a high cost-of-living as well.  In recent years New York has become the highest out-migration state in the nation.  More people leave New York each year than leave any other state.  The people who leave are usually the most productive.  Nothing is being done about this.

Now Illinois, which just imposed new taxes to balance its reckless budget, is learning the cost of high taxes:

SPRINGFIELD -- The chairman and CEO of Peoria-based Caterpillar Inc. is raising the specter of moving the heavy equipment maker out of Illinois.

In a letter sent March 21 to Gov. Pat Quinn, Caterpillar chief executive officer Doug Oberhelman said officials in at least four other states have approached the company about relocating since Illinois raised its income tax in January.

"I want to stay here. But as the leader of this business, I have to do what's right for Caterpillar when making decisions about where to invest," Oberhelman wrote in the letter obtained Friday by the Lee Enterprises Springfield bureau. "The direction that this state is headed in is not favorable to business and I'd like to work with you to change that."

Oberhelman said he's being actively courted to move.

"I have been called, 'cornered' in meetings and 'wined and dined' -- the heat is on," Oberhelman wrote. "Before, I never really considered living anywhere else and certainly never considered the possibility of Caterpillar relocating. But I have to admit, the policymakers in Springfield seem to make it harder by the day."

COMMENT:  The problem is, the policymakers in Springfield don't care.  They already have their speeches written should Cat decide to leave.  The words will be familiar:  turncoats, greedy capitalists, anti-labor, inhuman.  Just recall the language used by protesters in Wisconsin who didn't like the governor's attempts to bring public-service unions down to Earth.

I believe that the next ten years may well see some of the largest population shifts this country has witnessed since the post-World-War II years.  It isn't only companies that will move, it will be individuals, looking for well-run states that are friendly to initiative.  Our state of New York isn't one of them, and we are losing.  Illinois, where I went to college, is another business-unfriendly state, and it is losing as well.

March 26, 2011      Permalink

JAPAN STILL STRUGGLES – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  There clearly has been some radiation damage from the Japanese nuclear plant crippled in the recent earthquake.  But, day by day, technicians are making progress.  The damage overall from the quake and tsunami, human and economic, is still being assessed.  The effects will be felt for years.  From The New York Times:

TOKYO — The work of digging out and rebuilding continued in Japan on Saturday, more than two weeks after a devastating earthquake and tsunami, as a government spokesman said he could not predict when the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex would be brought under control.

Workers on Saturday resumed repair efforts Saturday, restoring lighting to the central control room of the No. 2 unit, Tokyo Electric Power said. It was another step toward restarting the cooling system that shut down after the disaster. That leaves only the No. 4 unit without lighting.

They also began pumping in fresh water to the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 units, after days of spraying the reactors with corrosive salt water. The United States military was aiding the effort, sending barges with 500,000 gallons of fresh water from the Yokosuka naval base. Those were expected to arrive later Saturday.

And...

The government has said the cost of reconstruction could reach $300 billion or more, which would make it the most destructive natural disaster ever. And that leaves unanswered what will be the ultimate cost of the reactor cleanup.

In Tokyo, where some goods remain in short supply, the mood remains subdued more than two weeks after the quake, dampened by the knowledge of the struggle at the power plant more than 100 miles north of the city and concern for the tens of thousands of quake and tsunami survivors who are only now starting to think of rebuilding their lives.

Yet, there is no looting, no rioting, and there are no "international funds" that mysteriously disappear.  There is, very legitimately, anger over apparent corruption involving safety reviews at the crippled plant. 

Japan will rebuild, but the economic damage from the quake could easily affect our own economy here.  We'll know more about that as the months progress.

March 26, 2011      Permalink 

POSSIBLE GOOD NEWS FROM LIBYA – AT 11:04 A.M. ET:  We say "possible" because there are real concerns about who some of the rebels are, and what they believe in.  But this may be, at least for now, some positive news:

Ajdabiya, Libya (CNN) -- Aided by coalition airstrikes, Libyan opposition forces claimed victory Saturday over Moammar Gadhafi's forces in wresting control of a strategically located eastern city while a battle in the west raged as loyalist tanks resumed the shelling of Misrata.

Loyalist forces retreated Saturday after days of fierce fighting in Ajdabiya, where the opposition reveled in its key victory in the city considered a gateway to Libya's vast oil fields and a stopping point on route to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.

Ajdabiya is now "100 percent" in opposition hands, said Shame Eldin Abu Almulla, spokesman for Libya's opposition interim council.

"As far as the military forces of Gadhafi, many of them have surrendered, others are retreating back and are being pursued towards Brega as of this minute," he said.

The Ajdabiya victory is viewed as a significant move forward for the Libyan opposition, which intends to take the fight all the way to the capital. It also served as evidence of the impact of coalition airstrikes.

But then there are the troubling reports of Al Qaeda elements among the rebels.  Our human intelligence is abysmal in Libya, but members of Congress will have some hard questions this week about who we're actually backing.

We learn that President Obama has condescended to make an address to the American people early in the week about our Libyan involvement.  We thank our gracious president for taking time out from hoops to speak to us, and we will hang on his every wonderful word.

March 26, 2011      Permalink

MIDEAST EXPLOSIONS – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  There is almost an exhaustion about reporting on the Mideast.  So much is happening in so many places.  Oh, by the way, did any of the Middle East "experts" you see on TV predict this?  I wonder why not.

This morning we read about further violence in Syria, one of the key Arab countries, and far more important in the Arab equation that Libya.  From Fox:

Security troops stormed a protest sit-in near the capital Damascus, arresting about 200 people in the midnight raid, activists said Saturday, the latest violence in the unrelenting crackdown on protests that have spread to this Mideast country.

The activists said up to 4,000 people were demonstrating in the town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus when, around midnight Friday, electricity was cut and the protesters came under attack. The activists spoke on condition of anonymity fearing reprisals.

They said troops attacked the protesters with sticks and clubs, injuring several, but those reports could not be independently confirmed. An eyewitness who drove to Douma Saturday said there were no traces of a fight in the area and shops were open.

As calm returned to Syrian cities Saturday, a human rights activist said authorities released 70 political prisoners. The release was an apparent effort to appease the protesters and contain the fallout from a deadly crackdown on demonstrations that have gripped Syria for a week. Groups of detainees have been released earlier in the week as well.

COMMENT:  Please note that Saudi Arabia, another key country, contained its protests.  The Syrian regime is known for its harshness, and I'd expect that it will do anything necessary to put down the revolt.  And, the way things are in international politics, the "realists" will be back in Damascus negotiating with the Syrians two weeks later, as if nothing had happened. 

Recall that Bush 41 sent super-realist adviser Brent Scowcroft to Beijing only months after the Tiananmen Square riots, and it was business as usual.  Didn't get us very far.  It's been my experience that the "realists" are often the most unrealistic people in town.

March 26, 2011      Permalink 

PERSONNEL NEWS – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:  It appears that Katie Couric will have her anchor raised by June and will be departing the Evening News chair at CBS.  From Howard Kurtz at the Daily Beast:

The CBS Evening News anchor is very likely to leave in June, and Scott Pelley is a top contender to replace her—but CBS is looking both within and outside the network, Howard Kurtz reports.

The search is on for Katie Couric’s successor.

The new CBS News chairman, Jeff Fager, is looking at candidates both within and outside the network, insiders say.

COMMENT:  Look, she didn't cut it.  And, frankly, her obvious liberal bias drove viewers away, as it has driven viewers away from other outlets as well.

We do hope that CBS News uses this opportunity to ask about itself, what it wants to be, what it aspires to be.  We also hope that there are some serious questions asked about the ridiculous, inflated salaries being paid to some "stars," and pseudo-stars.  Couric's salary is usually estimated to be in the $14-million to $15-million range each year.  What if they'd paid her a miserable $5-million?  Do you know how many reporters CBS could have hired with the savings? 

Some say that network news shows are dinosaurs, given the 24-hour news cycle serviced by CNN and Fox.  To a degree, that's true.  But only to a degree.  There's always room for good journalism and enterprising reporters.  Couric's departure is an opportunity for CBS to restore some of the luster, starting with a good, hard look at bias and what it has done to the news profession.  We wish them well.

March 26, 2011     Permalink

MARCH 25,  2011

THE DARK AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL – AT 11:09 P.M. ET:  We reported earlier about a rise in power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, not exactly a cheerful development.  We're also hearing stories, from CNN in particular, of brutality by the current governing power in Egypt that seems reminiscent of practices that the "revolution" was supposed to crush.   As one journalist said, old practices die hard.

And now a disturbing report from Libya, on Al Qaeda influence in the rebel camp.  Remember, the rebels, who are fighting the regime, are supposed to be the good guys.  Of course, as Bill Clinton might put it, that depends on what "good" is.  From London's Telegraph:

Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, the Libyan rebel leader, has said jihadists who fought against allied troops in Iraq are on the front lines of the battle against Muammar Gaddafi's regime.

In an interview with the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore, Mr al-Hasidi admitted that he had recruited "around 25" men from the Derna area in eastern Libya to fight against coalition troops in Iraq. Some of them, he said, are "today are on the front lines in Adjabiya".

Mr al-Hasidi insisted his fighters "are patriots and good Muslims, not terrorists," but added that the "members of al-Qaeda are also good Muslims and are fighting against the invader".

His revelations came even as Idriss Deby Itno, Chad's president, said al-Qaeda had managed to pillage military arsenals in the Libyan rebel zone and acquired arms, "including surface-to-air missiles, which were then smuggled into their sanctuaries".

Mr al-Hasidi admitted he had earlier fought against "the foreign invasion" in Afghanistan, before being "captured in 2002 in Peshwar, in Pakistan". He was later handed over to the US, and then held in Libya before being released in 2008.

US and British government sources said Mr al-Hasidi was a member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, or LIFG, which killed dozens of Libyan troops in guerrilla attacks around Derna and Benghazi in 1995 and 1996.

COMMENT:  I don't think I'd want this guy at a family wedding.  You know, they bring guns and shoot in the air.

And once again we're reminded that we don't know exactly who the rebels are.  We don't want to repeat the mistake that we made in the late seventies, helping to force the Shah of Iran out, and not understanding the people who came in to replace him. 

It's the Mideast.  Nothing is as it seems.  And we have very few legitimate experts here to sort it out.  Please notice the obscene silence of "Mideast Studies" departments of American universities during this "Arab spring."  One smug "scholar" said of these departments after the 9/11 attacks, "We don't do terrorism."  They apparently don't do revolution or democracy either.  But anti-Americanism?  Just wind them up and watch them go.

March 25, 2011      Permalink

LATE TRAVEL NEWS – AT 10:55 P.M. ET:  Aren't you moved by Jimmy Carter's vacation choices?  The man has such exotic, unusual taste.  Just earlier this week he announced he was going to North Korea.  (We hear the Disney theme park is spectacular.)  Now he's announced another trip, which will make us envious:

(Reuters) - Former President Jimmy Carter and wife Rosalynn will visit Cuba next week to meet with President Raul Castro and discuss ways to improve U.S.-Cuba relations, a Carter spokeswoman said on Friday.

The visit, made at the invitation of the Cuban government, raised the possibility that Carter would get involved in the case of U.S. aid contractor Alan Gross, recently sentenced to 15 years in prison for providing illegal Internet access to Cuban groups.

The case has strained U.S.-Cuba relations after a brief warming under President Barack Obama.

Yes, we all noticed the warming.  Didn't you sense the warming from the Castro Brothers?

Carter, 86, was to arrive in Havana on Monday for a three-day trip "to learn about new economic policies and the upcoming (Communist) Party congress and to discuss ways to improve U.S.-Cuba relations," said a statement from Carter spokeswoman Deanna Congileo.

The upcoming Party congress?  Is that what Carter is interested in?  What does he expect from said congress, something new?  Maybe a new way to jail dissidents.  That must be it.

I guess that, like chicken soup, the trip can't hurt.  Carter is roundly ignored in Washington, which is all to the better.  But occasionally he might take a trip to, say, Australia, to thank the Aussies for all the friendship and help they've given us over the years.  He does know about Australia, doesn't he?  If you go west from Georgia...  Oh, never mind.

March 25,  2011     Permalink

PATH TO THE NOMINATION – AT 10:43 A.M. ET:  Think of it this way:  We're nine months away from an election year.  Judging by the downhill slide of Obama, the movie, it will be one of the most important election years in our recent history.  What he have now is Carter lite.  Or Carter diluted.  Or non-fat, or something. 

But the Republicans struggle to come up with a candidate who can beat the Obama political machine, with its precinct captains from mainstream journalism.  It will not be easy.  The Republican bench, as currently constituted, does not exactly drip with charisma.

Take Mitt Romney...please.  (Okay, that's an old Henny Youngman line.  I apologize for my sins.)  He's a fine man, I'm sure.  But he still reminds me too much of the guy in the Brooks Brothers light jacket ads.   Here, from The Politico, is his apparent strategy to get the GOP nomination:

Much will depend on the still-unsettled primary calendar and the eventual field of candidates. But the former Massachusetts governor’s aim, according to multiple aides and advisers, is to exceed expectations his team is working feverishly to lower in Iowa, to come back strong with a win in New Hampshire, to survive South Carolina in part by picking up an off-setting victory in Nevada and then to settle in for what many described as “a slog” that they’ll emerge from thanks to superior money and organization.

Boy, can you sense the excitement?  What a vision! 

At this stage, I just don't think Romney has the electricity to beat Obama.  I could be wrong, and I'd want to be wrong if he gets the nomination.  But if Republicans were politically smart – there's a first time for everything – they'd start looking toward their young bench.  We can't afford four more years of Obama.

March 25, 2011      Permalink

THE AMATEUR AT WORK – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  President Obama's amateurism in foreign policy has now been so firmly established, and underlined by his handling of Libya, that little more proof is needed.  One sign of that amateurism is Obama's refusal to speak directly to the American people about what he is doing, and why he is doing it.  This administration is completely out of touch with the requirements of the American presidency.  The Politico, always a friend to Obama, reports:

President Barack Obama is resisting pressure to deliver an Oval Office speech explaining his policy on Libya — in part, because he doesn’t want to equate what he regards as a smaller, time-limited mission with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Administration officials haven’t ruled out a big speech, but Obama is reluctant to make a major address on Libya until the United States hands over most command and combat duties to its allies.

Such a prissy, so-called "intellectual" approach.  And so completely contemptuous of the American people.

Whatever happens, Obama is intent on putting the U.S. in the back seat. As part of an effort to downplay the scope of U.S. involvement, administration officials have flatly refused to call the enforcement of the Libyan no-fly, no-drive zone — which has included the launch of more than hundred cruise missiles and dozens of U.S. aircraft sorties — a “war.”

It is “a time-limited, scope-limited military action,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said Thursday.

Still, the lack of a clearly articulated endgame — or even a rationale for quickly committing U.S. naval and air assets in a third Muslim nation — is making House and Senate members in both parties increasingly uneasy.

When Democrats say they're uneasy about Obama, you know there's a problem.

Charles Krauthammer, the brilliant columnist, and Harvard-trained psychiatrist, analyzes Obama and writes him off in a devastating Washington Post column:

President Obama is proud of how he put together the Libyan operation. A model of international cooperation. All the necessary paperwork. Arab League backing. A Security Council resolution. (Everything but a resolution from the Congress of the United States, a minor inconvenience for a citizen of the world.) It’s war as designed by an Ivy League professor.

And...

Never modest about himself, Obama is supremely modest about his country. America should be merely “one of the partners among many,” he said Monday. No primus inter pares for him. Even the Clinton administration spoke of America as the indispensable nation. And it remains so. Yet at a time when the world is hungry for America to lead — no one has anything near our capabilities, experience and resources — America is led by a man determined that it should not.

A man who dithers over parchment. Who starts a war from which he wants out right away. Good God. If you go to take Vienna, take Vienna. If you’re not prepared to do so, better then to stay home and do nothing.

COMMENT:  And yet, Obama still has his protectors in the media, determined to cover up their absysmal lack of questions about this man during the 2008 campaign.  They're not going to allow themselves to be proved wrong.  Stand by for a remaking of Obama's image in time for 2012.

March 25, 2011      Permalink

AND NOW SYRIA – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Syria, the Arab country that is most linked to Iran, is also erupting.  If it should become destabilized, the story would be much larger than Libya.  Syria is one of the most militant, and important of Arab countries. 

(CNN) -- Tensions boiled in a volatile Syrian community Thursday as thousands turned up for the funerals of people killed in unrest. Meanwhile, Syria's government blamed the instability on outsiders and announced plans to study popular demands, including the lifting of the country's decades-old emergency law.

Syria is the latest in a string of Arabic-speaking nations beset with discontent over economic and human rights issues. Syrian discontent centers on Daraa, a southern city in the impoverished country's agricultural region, where violence has been escalating between security forces and anti-government protesters since late last week.
Wissam Tarif, executive director of the human rights organization Insan, said at least 34 people have been killed in Daraa in the past two days. Other activists believe many more have been killed.

Tarif said as many as 20,000 people followed the funeral procession for those who died in the violence, including a conscripted soldier who was reportedly shot and wounded because he refused to fire on demonstrators.

COMMENT:  What is remarkable about all these revolutions and mini-revolutions in the Arab world is how surprised and shocked many journalists are.  For years the mainstream media, and its enablers in the universities, have been telling us that the only important issue in the Mideast was the "plight of the Palestinians."  Strange, but they haven't been mentioned recently.  You don't think we've been misled, do you?  Yes I do. 

But there is no guarantee that any of these revolts will result in better societies or governments.  Lebanon, which was also in revolt not long ago, is now completely dominated by Hezbollah.  And we saw what happened to Hungary and Czechoslovakia, in Eastern Europe, when they tried to break free of the Soviet Union.  It took the USSR's collapse to free them.

We are going to have an interesting year, and it leads right into the 2012 American elections.

March 25, 2011      Permalink

JUST WHAT WE FEARED – AT 8:23 A.M. ET:  Remember Egypt?  There was a revolution there some weeks back, and we were assured by the fashion plates of the Western press that a new, secular Egypt would emerge.  Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times practically anointed the democracy demonstrators as the greatest humans ever to have lived.  It reminded me of the "journalists" during the Vietnam war who assured us that the North Vietnamese really weren't Communists, but nationalists.  A slight error.

Now some of our worst concerns about the "new" Egypt may be realized, at least in part.  We will, of course, be called "bigots" and "Islamophobes" for pointing this out, but it does come, to its credit, from that fashionably liberal New York Times:

CAIRO — In post-revolutionary Egypt, where hope and confusion collide in the daily struggle to build a new nation, religion has emerged as a powerful political force, following an uprising that was based on secular ideals. The Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group once banned by the state, is at the forefront, transformed into a tacit partner with the military government that many fear will thwart fundamental changes.

I think they call this hijacking a revolution.

It is also clear that the young, educated secular activists who initially propelled the nonideological revolution are no longer the driving political force — at least not at the moment.

As the best organized and most extensive opposition movement in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood was expected to have an edge in the contest for influence. But what surprises many is its link to a military that vilified it.

“There is evidence the Brotherhood struck some kind of a deal with the military early on,” said Elijah Zarwan, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. “It makes sense if you are the military — you want stability and people off the street. The Brotherhood is one address where you can go to get 100,000 people off the street.”

And...

...in these early stages, there is growing evidence of the Brotherhood’s rise and the overpowering force of Islam.

When the new prime minister, Essam Sharaf, addressed the crowd in Tahrir Square this month, Mohamed el-Beltagi, a prominent Brotherhood member, stood by his side. A Brotherhood member was also appointed to the committee that drafted amendments to the Constitution.

A recent referendum, approved overwhelmingly by the Egyptian voters, speeds up the election process.  Observers see this as strongly favoring the Brotherhood, the best organized group in Egypt.  A longer process would have allowed more time for more secular forces to organize.

I fear that we will have in Egypt what we've seen so often in the Arab world – one person, one vote, one time.  The early signs are not good, and we may wind up wishing for the return of Hosni Mubarak. 

March 25, 2011     Permalink