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MAY 17,  2011

GETTING IT RIGHT – AT 10:58 P.M. ET:  Every now and then our State Department gets it exactly right, and we're glad to praise Hillary Clinton for getting this exactly right.  What, precisely, did she do to win such praise?  She openly, and I hope with malice aforethought, snubbed an international group that arrogantly calls itself "the elders," and is headed by elder-clown Jimmy Carter.   From Foreign Policy:

Former President Jimmy Carter and former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari were hoping to visit the State Department this week to brief officials on their recent trip to North Korea, but nobody at the State Department was available to meet with them.

Carter and Ahtisaari, both Nobel Peace Prize laureates, had been eager to give their readout of their meetings in North Korea April 26 and 27 to U.S. officials and press their case for a resumption of food aid to the Hermit Kingdom. The two are members of the Elders, a group of senior figures who have been informally engaging with regimes that official governments won't deal with, in the hopes of finding pathways to peace. They traveled to North Korea last month with former Irish President Mary Robinson and former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Bruntland. Other members of the Elders include Kofi Annan, Desmond Tutu, Nelson Mandela, and Aung San Suu Kyi.

But no one at the State Department would meet with them, so the trip to Washington was cancelled.

"The trip was arranged at short notice and due to busy schedules and given everything else going on we were not able to arrange meetings at the right level," a spokesman for the Elders told The Cable. The State Department offered no comment on the situation.

And...

It's no secret at all that the Elders' trip to North Korea was viewed as extremely unhelpful by the governments both in Washington and Seoul. Chris Nelson reported on April 29 that Clinton reacted strongly when asked in a morning meeting if she wanted to meet with Carter. From the Nelson report:

The performance of President Carter and his delegation in N. Korea this week was either shameful or fatuous...or both...and exemplifies why Carter had no...zero...USG support going in, and even less coming out, per an alleged eye witness account of Sec. St. Clinton at the morning meeting the other day:

"Do you want to meet with Carter?" Clinton is looking at papers, and just says "No." Then she pauses, looks up and adds, "HELL no!!!"

COMMENT:    Cheers for Hillary.  Maybe the elders can get their own unreality show on MSNBC. 

May 17, 2011       Permalink

RYAN UPDATE – AT 5:47 P.M. ET:  Updating our 9:01 A.M. post on Paul Ryan, he has now formally decided against running for the Senate in Wisconsin next year.  From Fox:

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan will forgo a Wisconsin Senate bid in 2012 to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, Fox News has confirmed.

In a statement released Tuesday, Ryan says the "most important factor in making this decision was determining where I could make the biggest difference."

Ryan adds that serving as chair of the Budget Committee is best for him and "allows me to have greater impact in averting this debt-fueled crisis if I were to run for the United States Senate."

Had Ryan run, this would have been a referendum on his budget and Medicare package, which is still likely to front and center in the presidential contest with Obama visiting a swing state like Wisconsin around the clock.

Read Ryan's full statement below:

"I am grateful for the tremendous outpouring of encouragement that I have received from my friends and supporters since Senator Kohl announced he would not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate. For my family and me, the most important factor in making this decision was determining where I could make the biggest difference. Our nation is quickly approaching a debt crisis that will do serious damage to Wisconsinites and all Americans if it is not properly addressed. I believe continuing to serve as Chairman of the House Budget Committee allows me to have a greater impact in averting this debt-fueled economic crisis than if I were to run for the United States Senate.

"House Republicans have taken bold steps forward in tackling our fiscal and economic challenges - we have led, where others have not. I want to keep building on this progress and therefore, I will seek to continue serving my employers of Wisconsin's First District as their Representative in the House."

COMMENT:  I disagree with the decision, but I'm not him.

May 17, 2011       Permalink

HOW THINGS WORK – AT 10:44 A.M. ET:  Every now and then we're reminded of how things work in the real political world.  Today's reminder comes from the Daily Caller:

Of the 204 new Obamacare waivers President Barack Obama’s administration approved in April, 38 are for fancy eateries, hip nightclubs and decadent hotels in House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s Northern California district.

That’s in addition to the 27 new waivers for health care or drug companies and the 31 new union waivers Obama’s Department of Health and Human Services approved.

Pelosi’s district secured almost 20 percent of the latest issuance of waivers nationwide, and the companies that won them didn’t have much in common with companies throughout the rest of the country that have received Obamacare waivers.

Other common waiver recipients were labor union chapters, large corporations, financial firms and local governments. But Pelosi’s district’s waivers are the first major examples of luxurious, gourmet restaurants and hotels getting a year-long pass from Obamacare.

For instance, Boboquivari’s restaurant in Pelosi’s district in San Francisco got a waiver from Obamacare. Boboquivari’s advertises $59 porterhouse steaks, $39 filet mignons and $35 crab dinners.

COMMENT:  Where today's liberals play and dine.  What a role reversal we've had in the last four decades of American politics.  At one time the well-heeled were GOP all the way, and it wasn't always pretty.  Today the average Joe often finds that the Republican Party reflects his values, but that the Dems are well represented among the upper crust.

Nancy Pelosi represents a money-talks district, and money talks loudly in politics, especially around election time, when campaigns need it.  She uses her clout the way every other politician uses it.  No hope and change there.  So, out of 435 House districts, hers gets 20% of the Obamacare waivers.  That's fair, isn't it?

May 17, 2011     Permalink

ATTENTION ON THE WIVES – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  There's a great deal of attention around the internet today on political wives.  They are an important factor in politics, the more so when their relationship with their husbands are complicated and possibily controversial.

This is underlined by the disclosure by former Governor Arnold Schwarznegger of California that he fathered a child a decade agao with a member of his household staff, and that this was a major factor in the decision of his wife, Maria Shriver, to leave him.  Arnold has now profusely apologized. 

"After leaving the governor's office I told my wife about this event, which occurred over a decade ago," Schwarzenegger told the Times in a statement that also was sent to The Associated Press early Tuesday. "I understand and deserve the feelings of anger and disappointment among my friends and family. There are no excuses and I take full responsibility for the hurt I have caused. I have apologized to Maria, my children and my family. I am truly sorry.

"I ask that the media respect my wife and children through this extremely difficult time," the statement concluded. "While I deserve your attention and criticism, my family does not."

Arnold is a former governor, and probably out of politics forever.  But two potential presidential candidates also have "complicated" personal lives that can affect their candidacies, as The Politico notes:

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is weighing a run, and his wife, Cheri, divorced in the early 1990s after she left him and their four children, ages 8 to 14. She married another man before divorcing again and remarrying Daniels a few years later.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who announced his candidacy last week, is married to his third wife, Callista, whom he started dating while still married to his second wife.

Cheri Daniels and Callista Gingrich are said to be reluctant to step into the pressure cooker of a presidential campaign — which could force them to discuss the past publicly.

Even at this early stage of the campaign, shaping the narrative of home life is part of the political calculation, said Nicolle Wallace, who served as a senior adviser to John McCain’s presidential campaign and was an aide to President George W. Bush.

COMMENT:  It may be unfair, even trivial, to consider such matters when we're discussing affairs of state, but, bottom line, they matter.  As we keep on stressing here, it isn't enough to be qualified to be president.  You've got to get to be president, and a messy home life can shave off enough points to send you back to the old family home. 

You probably recall the debate, strange at times, over whether the Monica Lewinsky affair was important in considering the administration of Bill Clinton.  Yes, it was important.  We don't have royalty in America, and the president is chief of state, the personal symbol of the government.  The White House is the people's house, not the president's house, and we have a right to expect a certain level of deportment in the chief executive.  This is not decadent Europe. 

We can, perhaps with dread, look forward to many personal revelations as the months pass.  President Roosevelt's affair with Lucy Mercer came out decades after FDR's death.  Today we get the news earlier.  I don't know which is better.

May 17, 2011       Permalink

(Editor's note:  The following post was re-edited following valuable suggestions from readers Bruce Goldman and Don Newell.)

EYES ON RYAN – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:  Political eyes are on Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, a rapidly rising GOP star.  There's now a Senate seat opening in his state for the 2012 election.  Other Republicans, including former Governor Tommy Thompson, are expressing interest, but they're deferring to the very hot  (politically) Mr. Ryan.  But Ryan, disappointingly, may not jump.  From The Politico:

Though they’d greet a Paul Ryan Senate candidacy with open arms, GOP leaders aren’t holding their breath.

Ryan, the House Budget Committee chairman, undoubtedly holds the first right of refusal in the newly open Wisconsin Senate race. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn have already spoken to him about the prospect. His rising stardom would almost guarantee him to be a prolific national fundraiser. And even Democrats who loathe his ideology acknowledge he’d be a substantive, formidable opponent.

While he’s divided the country with a transformative budget blueprint, there’s virtual unanimity in political circles that his entry into the race for the seat being vacated by Sen. Herb Kohl would define the contest and thrust Wisconsin into the spotlight as a nationally watched bellwether.

We noted this a few days ago.  A Ryan candidacy might match him against former liberal Senator Russ Feingold, who was defeated for reelection last November.  It would be a classic match, pitting two highly respected figures with distinct ideologies.

However, Ryan may not move at all.

But operatives from Wisconsin to Washington say they would be surprised if he took the plunge.

“I think a quick decision means he’s less likely to run. He’s only five months into his dream job as Budget Committee chairman. Why throw that away? No need to drag this on; it’s a distraction from his important work,” said Wisconsin Republican consultant Chip Englander.

“The buzz is he is leaning against the Senate race,” said Wisconsin GOP operative Bill McCoshen.

“It is very unlikely he runs,” said a Washington Republican operative. “Good thing for us, he is going to decide very quickly.”

It's pointed out that Ryan is involved in a bitter battle to defend his concept for reshaping Medicare, and is unlikely to walk away from it for a Senate race.  My own feeling is that Ryan is making a misjudgment.  His Medicare reform package, with its emphasis on private health insurers, is highly flawed and politically toxic.  Americans have not responded well to it.  He might want to deemphasize that part of his proposed budget package, which is courageous and well timed.

At the same time, no House committee chairmanship compares to the stature of a seat in the U.S. Senate.  The Senate is seen as a place from which you can go directly to the presidency.  Although many presidents have served in the House, virtually all have done something after their House service to make them notable enough to be viewed as a future president.  Ryan should understand that his current budget proposals will carry greater weight, and attract more attention, if they came from a senator.   That may be unfair, of course.  As longtime reader Don Newell writes in a letter to us today, a proposal should be judged by its own worth.  However, in our media-driven universe, senators just get more attention.

I'm afraid that if Ryan passes on the Senate race, in favor of month-to-month wonkery in the House, he'll eventually be seen as a small-time numbers cruncher rather than a statesman.  Time to grow.

May 17, 2011      Permalink

ALLIANCE THREATENED – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  One of the many things that Barack Obama has mishandled has been our critical alliance with Britain.  Now the chickens, or the bulldogs, are coming home to roost, as London's Telegraph reports:

David Cameron’s push for an early British withdrawal from Afghanistan has caused alarm in the US, raising fears for the Special Relationship.

Senior American military figures have warned Britain that a hasty exit from Afghanistan could strain relations between the two countries.

The Daily Telegraph last week revealed that David Cameron has ordered British commanders to draw up plans to start pulling hundreds of British troops out of Afghanistan within weeks.

The Prime Minister is expected to discuss a co-ordinated Afghan withdrawal in London next week.

The prospect of an imminent British withdrawal is understood to have alarmed American generals, who are trying to resist political pressure for a major reduction in US troop numbers.

Well-placed sources said that US generals have delivered a blunt warning to their British counterparts about the impact of an early UK withdrawal.

COMMENT:  The British withdrawal is disappointing.  We expected better of Cameron, who has shown real gutsiness in the Mideast, far more so than Obama has shown.

However, we must ask this question:  Why should the Brits stick their necks out when Obama himself is promising large American withdrawals?  The Osama bin Laden raid was a one-shot, and its glow is already fading.  What is left is an uncertain, unenthusiastic American policy toward Afghanistan, informed at least in part by Obama's need to show his left-wing base what he has done to "end the war," no matter how poorly it ends.

And Obama's attitude toward Britain has been at best aloof, starting with his gratuitious return to the British of a bust of Winston Churchill that had graced the Oval Office. 

Our enemies study these alliances.  They must be delighted.

May 17, 2011     Permalink

MAY 16,  2011

REPEAT OF 1962? – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:  Having experienced the Cuban Missile Crisis at the CIA, Langley, ion 1962, I have little enthusiasm for a repeat.  But we may get one.  A German newspaper is running a disturbing report:

BERLIN – The Iranian government is moving forward with the construction of rocket launch bases in Venezuela, the German daily Die Welt wrote in its Friday edition.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is Teheran’s most important South American ally.

Iran is building intermediate- range missile launch pads on the Paraguaná Peninsula, and engineers from a construction firm – Khatam al-Anbia – owned by the Revolutionary Guards visited Paraguaná in February. Amir al-Hadschisadeh, the head of the Guard’s Air Force, participated in the visit, according to the report. Die Welt cited information from “Western security insiders.”

The rocket bases are to include measures to prevent air attacks on Venezuela as well as commando and control stations.

The Iranian military involvement in the project extends to bunker, barracks and watch tower construction. Twenty-meter deep rocket silos are planned. The cost of the Venezuelan military project is being paid for with Iranian oil revenue. The Iranians paid in cash for the preliminary phase of the project and, the total cost is expected to amount to “dozens of millions” of dollars, Die Welt wrote.

COMMENT:  The major worry, of course, is that these bases will actually be Iranian, just as the missiles put in Cuba in 1962 were Soviet missiles.

While there does not appear to be any immediate threat to the U.S., a significant threat can develop, especially if the Iranians perfect the technique of putting nuclear warheads on missiles.  We might then have another Cuban Missile Crisis.  And if we make the decision to take out those missiles, we may well kill Iranians, with all that implies.

Not quite as neat a world as Mr. Obama promised.  And, by the way, has anyone in the White House noticed that the administration's "outreach" to Islam has been a complete bust?

May 16,2011       Permalink

RETURN – AT 11:46 P.M. ET:  We apologize for our lateness tonight.  Regular readers know that we were in Virginia, and returned today via exotic Route 95, roadway to the stars.  I tried to do some posting from the car, with my trusty wife driving, but quickly realized that the surface of the New Jersey Turnpike wasn't designed for this kind of work.  You type a letter, then go through 28 bumps before getting to the next one.

We knew we were entering New York because the gasoline prices jumped immediately.  New York is so kind, so welcoming.  I'm convinced that the traffic jams on the other side of the highway was made up of New Yorkers getting out before the state taxes their children as well.

But we are back, and will resume normal office operations immediately. 

May 16, 2011     Permalink

ENTERTAINMENT BULLETIN – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  Direct from the New York Daily News:

The show must go on.

"The Apprentice," a show based on getting a sought-after position with Donald Trump, won't end if the businessman decides to run for President, NBC announced Sunday.

The network's midseason schedule will include the hit show on Sunday nights with or without the Donald, executives said.

"It's such a strong franchise, not to minimize his presence in it because we love him, but I really do think it's all about the casting of that show and the challenges," NBC's chairman of entertainment, Bob Greenblatt, told The Hollywood Reporter.

COMMENT:  I'm just so relieved, aren't you?  And so awed by NBC's passion and commitment.  Why, who said there aren't great showmen around today? 

Now I can nap soundly.

May 16, 2011      Permalink

THE REPUBLICAN DILEMMA – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  What a strange position the Republican Party is in.  It controls most state governments.  It controls the House of Representatives by a substantial margin, and that control is expected to continue with the 2012 election.  It stands a good chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate next year.  And yet, its presidential prospects are cloudy at best.

The GOP was saved by a candidate, Dwight Eisenhower, in 1952.  It was saved by a candidate, Ronald Reagan, in 1980.  Today, when it needs to be saved again, it looks at a presidential field that is decidedly weak.  Passion for Mitt?  For Newt?  For Mitch?

This dilemma requires political leadership at the highest level, the kind of leadership that encourages new people to get into the race, and which makes it clear that only an oustanding candidate will do.  But the GOP has a history of often, not always, choosing the next guy in line.  Recall President Dole.  It also has a history of moving very, very slowly.

Obama is already campaigning.  In fact, he's always campaigning.  I think he campaigns in his sleep.  I think, if he says prayers at night, he mutters, "Now I lay me down to sleep.  But the polls open in eight hours."

There must be a dramatic gesture by the chairman of the party, and the Congressional leadership, to open up the party, just as the Tea Party movement opened up politics for millions of Americans.  Maybe a series of national Republican forums, featuring current and coming stars, would draw attention to new blood.

It is new blood that is needed.  The time for transfusions is long past.  And the time for nutbags like Ron Paul is long past.  There is no Eisenhower.  There is no one in the current crop with the charisma of Reagan.  But there's got to be some young gun out there, maybe Chris Christie, who can get the juices flowing.

May 16, 2011      Permalink

ANOTHER REVENGE ATTACK – BE ON GUARD – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  There has been another revenge attack in Pakistan, retaliation for the killing of Osama bin Laden.  The question is when our turn comes.  From London's Telegraph:

A Saudi Arabian diplomat was shot dead in Karachi on Monday, in the second attack on the country's interests in Pakistan since the death of Osama bin Laden.

The Pakistan Taliban, which is linked to al-Qaeda, immediately claimed responsibility in telephone calls to media organisations.

"Until America stops chasing al-Qaeda and stops drone strikes we will keep carrying out such attacks," said a spokesman, referring to attacks on militants in the north-west of Pakistan.

Police in Karachi said the man – named by the Saudi embassy as Hasan Khatani – worked in the consulate's security department and was driving a vehicle with diplomatic plates when two motorcycle riders unleashed a hail of gunfire at a crossroads in the city's upmarket Defence neighbourhood.

Iqbal Mahmood, Chief of Police in the city, said gunmen fired four bullets and fled on their motorcycle, killing him on the spot.

"They came on a motorbike, they fired four shots. One bullet hit his head and he died on the spot," he told reporters.

COMMENT:  It has been ten years since 9-11, and I think many Americans have been lulled to sleep by the failure of Al Qaeda to attack us successfully again.  But that failure may not continue.  The war on terror is ongoing, and will not end with a signing aboard the battleship Missouri. 

May 16, 2011      Permalink

THERE GOES THE FAMILY FLATWARE  AT 8:20 A.M. ET –  It's come to this.  Now even conservatives are taking inventory and listing things America could sell to get itself out of trouble.  From WaPo:

With the United States poised to slam into its debt limit Monday, conservative economists are eyeballing all that gold in Fort Knox. There’s about 147 million ounces of gold parked in the legendary vault. Gold is selling at nearly $1,500 an ounce. That’s many billions of dollars in bullion.

“It’s just sort of sitting there,” said Ron Utt, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation. “Given the high price it is now, and the tremendous debt problem we now have, by all means, sell at the peak.”

But that’s cockamamie, declares the Obama administration. Mary J. Miller, Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial markets, said the U.S. should sell assets in an orderly, “well-telegraphed” manner, not in a “fire sale” atmosphere with a debt limit deadline accelerating the process.

“It would be bad for the taxpayers. It would be bad for the markets,” Miller said.

Another senior administration official, not authorized to speak for attribution, described the situation more bluntly: “Selling off the gold is just one level of crazy away from selling Mount Rushmore.”

COMMENT:  When they start talking about selling the family jewels, we're in trouble.  As for Mount Rushmore, I can just envision "Lincoln Condominiums, high above South Dakota."  All the residents would be Chinese businessmen.  Or the "Trump Rushmore."  Believe me, it just might happen.

May 16, 2011     Permalink