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Scene above: Constitution Island, where Revolutionary War forts still exist, as photographed from Trophy Point, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York Please note that you can leave a comment on any of our posts at our Facebook page. Subscribers can also comment at length at our Angel's Corner Forum
As readers know, there's a Republican debate tonight from Michigan. It's starting now, 8 p.m. ET. We won't be live blogging, but we will watch, at least on and off. Frankly, these debates have become tedious and almost useless. There are far too many candidates on the stage. By this time in the campaign the field should have been dramatically reduced, allowing a real debate among, say, three or so people. But we'll have to take what we can get, even if there are candidates up there still stuck at 2%.
NOVEMBER 9, 2011 SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:58 P.M. ET: WILL DEBATE GAFFE SINK PERRY? – The Republican debate from Michigan tonight was routine and uneventful, but highlighted by a gaffe from Rick Perry. Perry, who'd promised he'd abolish three Cabinet departments could not name all three when asked. Perry rushed to reporters after the debate to concede he'd messed up. The clip of the gaffe is now all over the internet and is here. Perry just comes off as unprepared, once again. I really don't think he's ready for prime time, at least not prime time debates. This performance tonight will do him no good, and he needs a lot of good to get back in the race. MAJOR SHOCKING NEWS – Eddie Murphy, who used to be a famous comedian, has withdrawn as host of the next Academy Award ceremonies in solidarity with his producer, Brett Ratner, who had to withdraw the day before because of an anti-gay slur and some bizarre behavior on a TV program. Do you care? Does anyone care? The Oscar broadcast, years ago, had a certain veneer of class, and now it reached down to grab a has-been comedian at a time when fewer and fewer people are going to movies. In ten years I expect to see the Oscar telecast, if there is one, on some minor cable channel. Movie stars today are smaller than life, and an industry that used to be run by major showmen is today run by talent agencies, which in turn are populated by graduates of our "best" colleges who've never been on a movie set and couldn't recognize the script of "Casablanca." What a comedown. PENN STATE SCANDAL – Legendary football coach Joe Paterno and the president of Penn State, Graham Spanier, have been forced out in the light of allegations that they did too little to stop the sexual abuse of young boys by Jerry Sandusky, the former football defensive coordinator. The two men clearly should have done more, and their departures are appropriate, even though it is sad to see Paterno's legendary coaching career end this way. At the same time, the double standard in universities persists, as it does elsewhere in our society. Please remember that there was not a single reprimand for members of the Duke University faculty who publicly called for what amounted to the legal lynching of three lacrosse players charged with rape, despite a lack of any real evidence that they'd committed any crime. The three were eventually exonerated. I guess it depends on which side of the politically correct fence you're on. ISRAELI STRIKE? – Britain's Daily Mail is reporting that British intelligence chiefs expect an Israeli military strike on Iran, possibly as soon as Christmas or early next year. The British Defence Ministry is already making plans should Britain decide to back any such attack. The United States is ostensibly opposed to Israeli action, but it would be very difficult for President Obama to be seen as interfering with an Israeli attack, especially since, as we reported here, a number of Arab nations are apparently in favor of it, including Saudi Arabia. I have doubts about the Daily Mail story, but there's no doubt the Iranian nuclear program, now accused by the UN of fostering atomic-bomb development, is very much on the international front burner. November 9, 2011 Permalink
IRAN WEEK II – THE LITTLE BOMB – AT 8:42 A.M. ET: This adds to our earlier post on the UN report concerning Iran's nuclear program. From Bloomberg:
COMMENT: Shrinking a warhead has many uses other than mating the warhead to a missile. The smaller the device, the more transportable it is. The lighter the device, the more transportable it is with fewer people. Our concern here centers on two possibilities: 1) the sailing of a nuclear device, in a small crate, into an American harbor, where it would be set off by a "martyr" (suicide) crew; 2) the smuggling of a small nuclear device across our southern border, from which it could easily be transported into an American city. The work could be done by a terrorist group under Iranian control, and possibly based in Venezuela. The future gets more and more precarious. There are no guarantees that anything serious will be done to stop the Iranians. November 9, 2011 Permalink
CAIN, THE SEQUEL, AVAILABLE NOW! – AT 7:48 A.M. ET: Herman Cain struck back at a press conference yesterday, denying all the charges against him, while, as we noted, no particular facts. We'll now see how badly he's been damaged in the polls, and we'll also see where this is going. The latest breathless developments:
Now, in fairness, we should point out that, because these women have something of a history, does not make them liars or the charges untrue. This story is going to go on. There may be corroborating evidence somewhere, either way. Ms. Kraushaar has now apparently waived privacy rights involving the complaint she filed against Cain at the National Restaurant Association, which means she can release original documents. Each day brings new delights. What is fascinating, though, is that the charges against Cain pale by comparison to those against Bill Clinton. He's still going. November 9, 2011 Permalink IRAN WEEK – AT 7:21 A.M. ET: The International Atomic Energy Agency, now under honest management after years under the corrupt leadership of Mohamed ElBaradei, has now issued its report on the Iranian nuclear program. It is devastating.
The report reflects common sense. Iran is moving a good part of its program into hardened underground bunkers, something one needn't do if the facilities are designed to provide power for hair dryers and iPod chargers. But, as could be expected, the report was greeted by a big yawn by much of the mainstream media. Some media types were eager to wonder out loud whether the intelligence was "flawed," reminding us of the intelligence failure regarding WMD in Iraq. After all, one must give crazed enemies the benefit of the doubt. You know, that little man with the mustache in Berlin, he really doesn't mean it. And how could an Iranian bomb compete in importance with Michael Jackson's doctor or Herman Cain's accusers? The key element now is what to do about the report. Already there are those who are trying to shift attention away from the Iranian bomb and toward attempts to prevent any dramatic action, like a military strike, to stop it. There is no chance for increased UN sanctions. China and Russia, two nations that regularly thumb their noses at Obama's "outreach," have made it clear they'd veto increased action in the Security Council. What remains is action by individual nations, but there is a huge problem. The only effective sanctions left would have to be directed at Iran's energy sector, and that would mean higher oil prices here right before an election. Not a good prospect. Besides, sanctions have not had much of an effect on the nuclear program. That leaves the possibility of a military strike. France has already stated its opposition. Obama sent Defense Secretary Panetta to Israel recently to pressure the Israelis not to do it. Tehran must be smiling. But the threat is dire, with the possibility of one of the world's most irrational regimes in possession of nuclear weapons, which could even be shared with terrorist groups. The deciding factor may be something rather stunning...that Arab nations are quietly lining up behind the idea of a military strike.
Saudi support, in particular, is said to be strong. I would not be shocked at an Israeli strike, done with the tacit approval, and assistance, of some Arab nations, and with quiet help from the U.S. and possibly Britain. It is murky, but the threat is now widely understood. As we noted, a military strike before the 2012 election, if it is understood to have Obama's quiet support, could help him seal the deal with the voters. That may sound cynical, but that's the way the world works. November 9, 2011 Permalink
VIRGINIA UPDATE – AT 7:09 A.M. ET: We reported last night that, as of that moment, it appeared the Republicans would fall just short of taking control of the Virginia state Senate. What a difference a night's sleep makes. It now appears, although it is not certain, that there's been a change. Republicans, as of the latest count, have a good chance of tying the Senate. With the presiding officer a tie-breaking Republican, Republicans will have a tiny working majority, if the vote holds. (The GOP candidate in the deciding race is ahead by only 86 votes.) However, committees will be tied, making it difficult for Republicans to bring favored bills to the floor. For Dems, the results could have been much worse, with some pundits predicting a major Republican takeover. Why is this important? Because the GOP governor, Bob McDonnell, is becoming a national figure, with at least a chance of being on the Republican presidential ticket in the second spot next year. Or, he could be a major contender in 2016 if the Republicans lose to Obama in 2012. State victories count toward a governor's political appeal. Meanwhile, the Republicans increased their control of the state's House of Delegates, and now have the largest majority they've ever had in the lower house. All good for McDonnell. Virginia is a swing state. It will still be tough for the Republicans next year because northern Virginia, with its vast number of federal employees, has become a major Democratic enclave. But, bit by bit, McDonnell is building the Republican base and running a solid state administration. So stand by for the final outcome in the state Senate. November 9, 2011 Permalink
NOVEMBER 8, 2011 SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:46 P.M. ET: OHIO RESULTS I – This is election day in various parts of the country. Eyes are on Ohio, Mississippi, and Virginia. In Ohio, Republican Governor John Kasich was rebuffed by voters, who overturned a new law denying collective bargaining privileges to state workers. It is widely believed that Kasich botched the campaign on behalf of the law, whereas organized labor, bringing in firepower from all over the country, did well. Is this a GOP setback? I really don't think so. For many Americans, especially in a strong union state, collective bargaining has become a basic right, and people are reluctant to take it away. I think that was what is involved here. OHIO RESULTS II – On the other hand, Ohioans strongly affirmed a state measure to opt out of Obamacare's individual mandate, handing President Obama a defeat in a key swing state. Obamacare is proving so unpopular that it's amazing the Dems don't take the message and revise the law before the election. But the party's base won't allow it as it advances their dream of government control of health care. The Ohio vote may well turn out to be a decisive moment in an attempt by moderates and conservatives to shred the federal legislation. MISSISSIPPI RESULTS – A proposal for a pro-life "personhood amendment" appears to be going down to defeat in one of the most pro-life states of the union. However, this isn't exactly a famous victory for the other side. Governor Haley Barbour, himself a pro-life governor, said tonight that the wording of the measure was highly flawed (and, I would add, very extreme), and that many, many pro-life citizens voted against it because of its rigid, extreme language. This is a classic example of movement people going too far, even alienating their own supporters. The measure originated, not in Mississippi, but in Colorado. I would imagine the Mississippi legislature will now take up pro-life legislation that will be more thoughtful and reflective. VIRGINIA RESULTS – Results are not yet definitive in the attempt by Virginia's Republicans to win control of the state Senate, but it appears that attempt will fall short. Republicans are just shy of a majority. Early returns show that's the way the final result will go. Obviously, a victory would be very helpful to Governor Bob McDonnell, who's been prominently mentioned as a possible vice presidential choice, in large measure because he, theoretically, could bring Virginia back to the Republican column in a presidential race. November 8, 2011 Permalink
CAIN FIGHTS BACK – AT 10:29 P.M. ET: I was able to watch the entire Herman Cain press conference today, in which Cain hotly denied all of the accusations against him. Actually, the highlight of the affair was the opening statement by Cain's lawyer, Lin Wood, who gave an eloquent and reasoned presentation about false accusations, the justice system and the concept of fairness. Then Cain came on. Look, he was passionate, and defended himself with vigor. However, he didn't add anything new, and presented nothing that would lead an impartial viewer to say, "He's nailed it." He simply denied. It was an emotional performance, but free of great substance. Cain, though, was helped today by revelations that the accuser who came forward yesterday, fronted by Gloria Allred, has a troubled financial past, and has made charges like this before. She didn't help herself by being all over the tube, obviously trying to start a new career. And Gloria Allred is a well-known Democratic activist and contributor. At the same time, the first accuser, who spoke through her lawyer last week, saying she wanted to remain anonymous, came forward and identified herself. She's an employee of the Treasury Department. In other words, she works in the Obama administration. She said she would speak publicly, but preferred to hold a joint press conference with all the other accusers. I wonder why. I have no idea whether Herman Cain did the things he's accused of doing. He clearly botched the handling of these accusations in the first days, and has made wild, unsubstantiated charges about people he says instigated the charges. But the accusers have not been able to prove their statements. What we need here, and will probably not get, is some first-class investigative journalism. This story isn't over, so stand by. November 8, 2011 Permalink IRAN WEEK (CONT'D) – AT 8:58 A.M. ET: We're calling it Iran Week, as we said yesterday, because this week will mark release of a UN report, an honest one for a change, that will detail Iran's militarily oriented nuclear program. The issue: What will be done about it? Benny Avni, one of the best reporters on this issue, theorizes that President Obama may well decide on a military option, despite his reputation, and that politics may enter into his decision. From the New York Post:
And...
COMMENT: Read the whole piece. I'm somewhat skeptical, for Obama is also beholden to a hard left that would oppose any military action, and there is potential damage to the world economy in an attack on Iran. Sad to say, there are even Republicans, especially in the House, who might be reluctant to sign on because some of their supporters have business interests in Iran. But this president, on national security matters, has sometimes (by no means always) acted decisively, especially when he could claim credit, as he did after the bin Laden operation. And there is the reality that an Iranian nuclear bomb would constitute a humiliating defeat for Obama and could seriously compromise American security. I would imagine that, if Obama approved an attack, the actual action would be carried out by Israel, with tacit American support, and possibly the support of several other nations. Don't be shocked if the Saudis give a wink and a nod. They despise the Iranian mullahs. Stand by for more. November 8, 2011 Permalink OH DEAR, OH DEAR, OH DEAR – AT 8:41 A.M. ET: The plot, as they say, thickens. Herman Cain will hold a press conference today to tell his side of the story vis-a-vis his latest accuser. But the Chicago Sun-Times – the accuser is from Chicago – is running an absolutely intriguing story that can, if accurate, make it much easier for Cain. Consider:
COMMENT: Utterly intriguing. Let's hear what Herman has to say. Even conservatives are demanding that he answer this latest charge thoughtfully and completely. If the eyewitness report of the encounter is correct, he may have some powerful arrows in his quiver. But we'll wait and see. November 8, 2011 Permalink CRITICAL VOTE IN OHIO – AT 8:10 A.M. ET: As Americans pay attention to Michael Jackson's doctor and Herman Cain's hands, a critical vote is taking place today in Ohio, and our side may well lose, with substantial implications for the 2012 election. Ohio is a bellwether state, a swing state. From Business Week:
COMMENT: Kasich has a low approval rating. Support for retaining the law stands at only 32% in the polls. The hangup seems to be that most people favor collective bargaining as a right, and yet surveys also show that some parts of the law, requiring greater contributions by government employees to health care, for example, are popular. Unions have poured vast sums into this fight, while the other side kind of slept, which is what Republicans often do. I am certainly not anti-union, being a member of a union myself. The problem is that public-service unions present a unique challenge. The people of the state are management, and governors can be put in power by the very public-service unions with which they then must negotiate. There is an inherent conflict of interest. Today's vote will undoubtedly be seen as a victory for the Democrats, and it will be. It is important for national Republicans to analyze everything that's been done in Ohio, and how a Republican governor lost public support. Part of the problem, of course, is that Republicans are seen as anti- the little guy. Unless that perception is changed, we may have a very depressing election day in 2012. November 8, 2011 Permalink
ANOTHER FORM OF TERROR – AT 7:41 A.M. ET: We report this because it demonstrates what happens when law enforcement breaks down in a liberal city. The city is New York. This would not have happened if Rudy Giuliani was still mayor. From the New York Post:
COMMENT: For the record, it is extremely difficult to exercise the right to bear arms in New York City. If Ms. Tzortzatos tried, and had to display or even fire a weapon, she'd be the one in trouble, not the perp. And you may be sure that various "civil right" and "civil liberties" groups are monitoring people like Ms. Tzortzatos, not the lawbreakers. And you may also be sure that "feminist" groups are more interested in bringing down Herman Cain and Sarah Palin than in protecting a struggling woman trying to build a business. There is a right to peaceably assemble, under our Constitution. There is no right to "occupy" turf, especially private turf. These "occupy" demonstrations have turned into a disgraceful farce, but mayors are afraid to act, fearing they may alientate one constituency or another, or that the police might scratch somebody and give CNN a field day. It has been reported that owners of the park the occupiers use as their private bedroom have been threatned if they try to close down the demonstrations. Welcome to the 1960s. The mayor of New York, Mike Bloomberg, is having a very bad third term, and it is his own fault. But there is, sadly, no Rudy waiting in the wings, just as there is no Ronnie waiting for a presidential election. November 8, 2011 Permalink
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