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Correction:  One of our "short takes" last night had the U.S. debt passing the "$15-billion" mark.  Of course, it should have been "$15-trillion."  Thanks to reader Carol Dudley for noting the error.

NOVEMBER 17,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:48 P.M. ET:

DOES ANYONE CARE? – Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced today that Chicago will host the 12th annual summit of Nobel Peace laureates next spring.  Aren't we lucky?  We do hope the laureates, like Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, enjoy practicing their peacemaking amidst the gunfire and mayhem in the windy city.  And, of course, Obama can take them to Rev. Wright's church and Bill Ayers's living room.  They will all arrive at O'Hare Airport, just named as the worst airport in the United States.  Look, Chicago didn't get the Olympics, so you have to take what you can get.

SICKENING – For one brief shining moment we had a bit of Camelot at the UN, the prospect of a UN report on Iran's nuclear program that was honest, tough, and revealing.  Not so fast, American reader.  It now turns out a proposed resolution to be presented to the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency will be toned down considerably, to appease Russia and China, which oppose further sanctions on Iran.  It's said that the U.S. wanted a tougher resolution, and probably did, but Obama has so weakened this country's voice that he is being largely ignored.  It does not appear that any new serious sanctions are likely to be applied, and that Iran will proceed to a nuclear bomb.

STRANGE HONOR – Occupy San Diego held a moment of silence for the chap who's just been arrested for shooting at the White House.  Maybe a statue at Berkeley will be next, or a professorship named for this revolutionary hero.  Hey, he can be another Che.  At the same time, the individual involved, who fired a bullet that was stopped by a bulletproof White House window, has been charged with an attempted assassination of the president or a member of his staff.  It turns out that Ramiro Ortega-Hernandez, of Idaho Falls, Idaho, has a long rap sheet and was reported missing by his family in late October. 

ANOTHER ONE – Another athletic coach is embroiled in a child abuse investigation.  Bernie Fine, the assistant basketball coach of Syracuse University has been placed on administrative league following news of a police investigation into a complaint of improper contact with a young male, dating back to the 1980s.  However, there's a twist here.  It turns out this charge surfaced in 2005 and was thoroughly investigated by the police, not the university, which found no evidence to support it.  Several other young men named as possible victims by the complainant denied they were victims at all.  Obviously, there is special sensitivity to this issue because of the Penn State case, and that sensitivity is appropriate.  At the same time, we must be careful.  The false charge is a common feature of cases involving sex and abuse.  We had an epidemic of child-abuse allegations in the 1980s, many fanned by the media, that resulted in innocent people going to prison, their lives destroyed, before they were exonerated.  We must prevent serious, mature concern from degenerating into another edition of the Salem Witch Trials.

November 17, 2011       Permalink  

JOBLESS CLAIMS AT SEVEN-MONTH LOW – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  The devil is, as always, in the details, and the news really isn't very spectacular, but at least the trend is in the right direction.  However, it's a tiny trend.  From Bloomberg: 

Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week, an indication the labor market may be gaining traction.

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 5,000 in the week ended Nov. 12 to 388,000, the lowest level since April, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists forecast 395,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls fell to a three-year low.

As firings diminish, U.S. companies may add to payrolls at a faster pace as demand picks up. Sales that grew more than expected in October set the stage for higher levels of output, which could require more employees.

“Layoffs have eased, which is a great sign,” said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “The other side of the equation, however, is that firms are still very hesitant to hire. You’re getting a very gradual improvement in the labor market.”

COMMENT:  The fact is that 400,000 applications is considered very bad news, and 388,000 isn't much lower.   The fact also is that actual job creation is still lagging badly, and many lost jobs will probably never come back.

However, Obama can use these statistics to reassure on-the-fence voters that things are actually improving.  The media will help him.  If the number of jobless claims suddenly starts to drop steeply, it could mean Obama's reelection simply because of the psychological impact. 

November 17, 2011       Permalink

I'M SHOCKED, SHOCKED, THAT THIS IS GOING ON – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:   You would think that, just for appearances, an organization would wait for both major presidential candidates to be chosen before making an endorsement.  But why wait when a candidate delivered by Heaven is running?  From ABC News:

The powerful Service Employees International Union has announced their endorsement of President Obama in the 2012 general election. The announcement came from SEIU President Mary Kay Henry, in a conference call to reporters.

“We believe in a country that invests in good jobs here at home, where everyone pays their fair share,” Henry said. “Do we want leaders who side with the needs of rich corporations and the 1 percent, where they are prospering at the expense of everyone else? Or do we want leaders who will side with the rest of us, the 99 percent?”

The SEIU had also endorsed Obama for president in 2008, but their endorsement comes much earlier in this election cycle than in the previous one. The last time around the union waited until February 2008 to endorse their chosen candidate. In 2008, Obama was competing with then-Sen. Hillary Clinton for the nomination.

COMMENT:  We have nothing against unions here, good unions that is.  I'm a union member myself.  But unions often presume to speak for members who are actually skeptical of the union's political choices.  Witness the number of union men and women who became Reagan Democrats in 1980. 

Obama has done nothing for the working family.  Really, nothing.  He has put this country more deeply in debt than ever, and his so-called "stimulus" program failed to stimulate or provide many new private-sector jobs.  Yet, the SEIU doesn't seem to have many questions.  It is the automatic endorsement of the liberal candidate.  And it's sad, because the Democrats believe they have unions and African-Americans in their hip pocket, and they do, and they don't deliver much of real value to either group.

November 17, 2011       Permalink

NEW YORK BRACES – AT 7:58 A.M. ET:  New York City is bracing for a day of rage launched by the Occupy Wall Streeters who were evicted from their perpetual campgrounds a few nights ago.  This may go on all day and hit different parts of the city. 

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — Hundreds of protesters who gathered across from Zuccotti Park in lower Manhattan began chanting and marching toward Wall Street.

It’s the first step in the planned “day of action” by Occupy Wall Street protesters.

Today marks the two month anniversary of the Occupy Wall Street demonstration and the group is hoping there will be a huge turnout at big protests they’ve planned throughout the city.

“We’re going to march on Wall Street and shut down the New York Stock Exchange,” said protester Patrick Bruner.

“We do hope to stop people from getting to work,” said demonstrator Austin Guest. “We do hope to stop the Stock Exchange from functioning, but we don’t hope to do it in a crazy, wild-eyed way.”

Police are aware of the plan. They’ve flooded the Wall Street area with officers, who have set up barriers and checkpoints. They are not admitting people into the area without proof that they actually work there.

COMMENT:  I'm not all that concerned about the Wall Street area.  I'm concerned about rogue elements trying to shut down transportation systems, or even block traffic to the point where even fire trucks or ambulances couldn't get through. 

However, these big plans often fizzle, and the great NYPD is on the job.

November 17, 2011       Permalink

NEWT SOARING, BUT NOW ATTRACTS SCRUTINY – AT 7:36 A.M. ET:  A new Fox poll shows Newt Gingrich soaring in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.  However, please note that this is a recurring theme this year.  Someone, like Perry, soars, then collapses.  Then Herman Cain soars, and retreats when he handles a sexual harassment charge poorly.  This is probably more a comment on the lack of enthusiasm for Mitt Romney than anything else. 

Newt Gingrich has catapulted to the front of the race for the 2012 Republican nomination while Herman Cain has lost ground with GOP primary voters. Mitt Romney, once again, is holding steady.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Gingrich’s support doubling in the last three weeks. He stood at 12 percent in late October -- before the Cain harassment allegations and Rick Perry’s “oops” debate. Now the former House speaker is at 23 percent, essentially tied for the lead with Romney, with 22 percent.

Romney has been either the frontrunner or in second place in every Fox poll since July. He’s received the backing of between 20-26 percent of GOP primary voters for the last five months.

Cain garners 15 percent. That’s down from 24 percent last month, and slightly below his late-September standing of 17 percent.

Ron Paul receives the backing of 8 percent, edging out Perry at 7 percent. This is the first time Perry has been in single digits in Fox polling.

COMMENT:  The guns are now trained on Newt, who has more baggage than American Airlines.  There is a messy personal life, a huge account at an upscale New York jeweler, payments from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that he admits to having mischaracterized.

Perry appears cooked.  Not ready for prime time. 

Cain also is a case where the gloom is on the rose.  In addition to poor handling of the harassment charge, he's since blown some comments on foreign policy.  Hard to see how he comes back.  He simply doesn't do his homework.

Can Newt sustain his position?  Frankly, I doubt it, even though he's the most intellectually impressive of the candidates.  You may be sure that The New York Times is already preparing its hit piece, a ritual it goes through whenever a Republican rises in popularity.  The Times got plenty of practice with Sarah Palin. 

I'd imagine Newt will have to start answering a host of charges and insinuations, including those involving his past marital life.  Romney's people will know what to do.

And yet it is stunning that, this far into the race, the supposed frontrunner, Mitt Romney, cannot break out of the low twenties.  That lack of enthusiasm can easily translate into many conservative stay-at-homes on election day, as it translated into many liberal stay-at-homes in 1968, allowing Richard Nixon to defeat Hubert Humphrey.

November 17, 2011     Permalink

NOVEMBER 16,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:46 P.M. ET:

PUT BATTERIES IN THE CALCULATOR – The Treasury Department has raised its estimate of loss to U.S. taxpayers from the auto industry bailout by more than $9-billion because of the southward direction of General Motors stock.  The Treasury now says it projects a loss of $23.6-billion, up from the previous $14.33-billion estimate.  But what's $9-billion among friends, right?  I would not be shocked, given current trends, if the estimate of losses continues to increase.

THE CHILLING ARAB SPRING – Tunisia, once considered one of the most moderate and pro-Western Arab nations seems to be slipping behind the hashish curtain as a result of the betrayal of the Arab spring by Islamist elements, which are starting to control the country.  The probable next prime minister is quoted as saying that he hopes for a Sixth Muslim Caliphate, something that can be roughly translated as "Today Tunisia, tomorrow the world."  These triumphal statements are in sharp contrast to the assurances Islamist groups gave to the Tunisian people that they wouldn't try to impose themselves or Sharia law on Tunisia.  Yeah, right.  Words to be believed.

EXPOSED AT LAST, THE GREAT FREAK-OUT PROBLEM – The Obama administration is starting its quiet, back-door campaign for more gun control.  Proposed new regulations from the Department of the Interior would bar millions of acres of public lands from being used for target practice, a time-honored tradition in many parts of the country.  One reason given by the drafters of the rules is the tragedy, the very heartbreak, of freaking out.  It seems, according to Interior, that people from urban areas "freak out" if they're hiking on public lands and hear gunshots.  Apparently they don't freak out when hearing them in their own neighborhoods.

DEBT PASSES $15-TRILLION – The national debt of the United States passed $15-trillion today.  Make sure not to tell your children, or at least increase their allowance.  Our debt is $600-billion more than the combined economies of China and Japan.  A congressional supercommittee is trying to come up with ways to reduce the debt over a ten-year period, and has a deadline of next week before drastic budget cuts automatically go into effect.  However, even its most optimistic goals will hardly make a dent.  If you have some pennies from those old penny loafers, send them to the Treasury in Washington.  Be sure to put a stamp on the envelope.

November 16, 2011        Permalink

U.S. TO BUILD AUSTRALIA PRESENCE – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  We don't mention Australia enough.  It is one of our most loyal allies, is always there for us, and doesn't whine like the Europeans.   Now the American presence in Australia will be enlarged, and, because we give credit where it's due, we note that President Obama has acted wisely in this case.  From Fox:

CANBERRA, Australia – President Barack Obama insisted Wednesday that the United States does not fear China, even as he announced a new security agreement with Australia that is widely viewed as a response to Beijing's growing aggressiveness.

China responded swiftly, warning that an expanded U.S. military footprint in Australia may not be appropriate and deserved greater scrutiny.

The agreement, announced during a joint news conference with Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, will expand the U.S. military presence in Australia, positioning more U.S. personnel and equipment there, and increasing American access to bases. About 250 U.S. Marines will begin a rotation in northern Australia starting next year, with a full force of 2,500 military personnel staffing up over the next several years.

Obama called the deployment "significant," and said it would build capacity and cooperation between the U.S. and Australia. U.S. officials were careful to emphasize that the pact was not an attempt to create a permanent American military presence in Australia.

"It also allows us to meet the demands of a lot of partners in the region that want to feel that they're getting the training, they're getting the exercises, and that we have the presence that's necessary to maintain the security architecture in the region," Obama said.

COMMENT:  Now let's hope that Obama follows through with a tough, realistic policy toward China, which is building its military forces rapidly...another argument for our not cutting our defense budget.

The Australian commitment is a small step, but it is a step in the right direction.  And Australia, unlike some (most) American allies, always pulls its weight.

November 16, 2011       Permalink

IRAN, TAKE NOTICE – AT 7:45 A.M. ET:  Was this story released to pressure Iran?  We wonder.  From Bloomberg:

The U.S. Air Force has taken delivery of a new 30,000-pound bomb from Boeing Co. (BA) that’s capable of penetrating deeply buried enemy targets.

The huge bunker buster, dubbed the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, is built to fit the B-2 stealth bomber. The Air Force Global Strike Command started receiving the bombs in September, Air Force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jack Miller said in a short statement to Bloomberg News.

The deliveries “will meet requirements for the current operational need,” he said.

Hmm.  And just what is that operational need?

The Air Force in 2009 said Boeing might build as many as 16 of the munitions. Miller yesterday had no details on how many the Air Force plans to buy. Boeing in August received a $32 million contract that included eight of the munitions.

Command head Lieutenant General James Kowalski told the annual Air Force Association conference in September the command “completed integration” of the bunker-buster bomb with the B- 2, “giving the war-fighter increased capability against hardened and deeply buried targets.”

And...

The United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency last week reported Iran was trying to develop an atomic bomb to fit on a missile capable of hitting Israel.

Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons facilities are dispersed over a broad area 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) and multiple countries to the east of Tel Aviv. Some are underground. Iran has repeatedly asserted that its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian goals, such as power generation.

Iran is following the lead of China and Russia in protecting its Natanz and Qom nuclear facilities by moving them underground, the Defense Intelligence Agency director, Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, told a Senate panel in February.

“Buried, hardened facilities and improved air defenses are key elements of Iran’s extensive program to protect its nuclear infrastructure from destruction,” Burgess said.

COMMENT:  I'm glad we're equipping our forces with these weapons...just in case.  It is perfectly apparent that the international will doesn't exist to impose crippling sanctions that might convince Iran to drop its nuclear program.  The military option looms as a real possibility.  We must have the forces in being either to launch a strike, or to convince Iran to find a better way to live among the nations.

November 16, 2011       Permalink

BIG PLANS FOR LITTLE MINDS – AT 7:20 A.M. ET:  The "Occupy Wall Street" group has been cleared from lower Manhattan, having been there two months without advancing a single idea or program.  But James Taranto, in his excellent Best of the Web Today site, reports that the occupiers still have plans for this week:

The Obamavillians, who style themselves "the 99%," plan to retaliate by making the lives of ordinary New Yorkers more difficult. A 2:30 a.m. email from Justin Ruben of MoveOn.org urged recipients to "call 3-1-1 and demand that Mayor Bloomberg respect the protesters' First Amendment rights." The mayor does not answer calls to 311, a nonemergency city information line. The MoveOnsters are urging their supporters to harass people who are just doing their jobs answering the phones for the city.

Leaders of the so-called Occupy Wall Street movement are "vowing to wreak havoc on Thursday by shutting down Wall Street and the subways," the New York Post reports:

"According to their Web site, the day will include 'Mass, Non-violent Direct Action' to 'Shut Down Wall Street' at 7 a.m., 'Occupy the Subways' in all five boroughs at 3 p.m. and 'Take the Square,' referring to Foley Square, at 5 p.m."

Foley Square is best known as the site of the U.S. and New York County courthouses. The plan to target the subways shows the true colors of this so-called movement. It is not merely about class warfare but about sowing chaos and intimidating ordinary people.

COMMENT:  James is correct.  Movements of this character always reveal their selfishness at some point.  I recall that many of the "anti-war" demonstrations that I visited in the late 60s were really social occasions, with pizza served while men were dying. 

There are certainly sincere protesters, and some may have legitimate grievances.  But, on the left in particular, movements tend to be taken over by adolescent brats, with predictable consequences.

We anticipate tomorrow and the "havoc" some of the demonstrators have promised. 

November 16, 2011       Permalink

UNSETTLING – AT 6:58 A.M. ET:  A new CNN poll shows where Obama stands, which is so-so, but several numbers paint a picture that should worry all Americans:

Washington (CNN) - President Barack Obama's overall approval rating remains in the mid-40s, where it has been since July, and he continues to receive much higher marks for foreign policy than for domestic issues, according to a new national survey out one year before he is up for re-election...

...It all adds up to an overall 46% approval rating for the president, with 52% saying they disapprove of how Obama is handling his job in the White House.

And...

The poll indicates that the standard partisan divide over the president remains, with three-quarters of Democrats giving Obama a thumbs up but only 15% of Republicans approving of the job he's doing in office. By a 54%-42% margin, independent voters disapprove of how the president's handling his duties.

This is the unsettling part:

White Americans give Obama a thumbs down by a 61%-36% margin, with non-white Americans give the president a thumbs up by a more than 2-1 margin.

The racial divide is depressing.  Does it automatically mean that whites are rejecting Obama on racial grounds and nonwhites cheering him on the same grounds?  I'm afraid there's probably some of that, but some of the divide may be based on economic factors as well.  But the divide exists, and can lead to racial tension during the election campaign, something we definitely don't need.  One spark in the midst of a tense campaign can set off a city. 

I'm sure these racial statistics will be commented on today, and I'm sure other polls will try to measure racial attitudes as well.  I hope the pundit class tries to keep racial friction under control, but that may be too much to ask, especially when MSNBC makes Al Sharpton a talk-show host.

November 16, 2011     Permalink