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NOVEMBER 25,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:32 P.M. ET: 

THE GLORY OF ECONOMIC REPORTING – Wasn't Charlie Dickens the British chap who wrote, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times"?  Yeah, he said that in a book that got turned into a movie.  Big box office in the thirties.  Dickens could have been a modern business reporter.  Fox News is reporting one of the best Black Fridays on record.  Other news outlets are reporting flat sales, or a little worse than last year.  And U.S. stocks had their worst Thanksgiving week drop since 1932.  Choose whatever news you like.

TOM WICKER – Tom Wicker has died.  He was a vestige of the old, and better New York Times, and became its Washington bureau chief.  His greatest reporting moment came in his calm, fact-based coverage of the assassination of John F. Kennedy.  When I was at The Times I edited a Magazine story by Wicker on J. Edgar Hoover.  What struck me was Wicker's fairness and his insistence that everything he said be fact-based.  Today, some journalists would call that old-fashioned.  Wicker could have some funny ways.  He pronounced "ghettoes" as "jet toes," but he was a solid rock who has left a good journalistic name.

CHILLING – Egypt, the most important Arab country, is about to vote, but the country is wracked with tension, with 41 people killed this week alone in political violence.  And on Friday, the Muslim Brotherhood held a vitriolic rally in a mosque, filled with death threats against Israel, Jews, nonbelievers, and, ultimately, Americans.  Remember, Israel is the Little Satan, but we're the Big Satan.  At the same time, Morocco held an election today, with the main Islamic party expected to make strong gains.  We may regret the Arab Spring, and moderate Arabs may regret it more.  President Obama played golf today.

OPENING? – Republicans believe the failure of the Supercommittee to come up with an agreed-on series of budget cuts and revenue enhancements opens the door for them to play the GOP's strongest hand, national security.  The committee's failure triggers a series of automatic budget cuts, most severely at the Pentagon.  Republicans plan to move to exempt the Defense Department from catastrophic cuts, contrasting their toughness with what they perceive is Obama's weakness.  At the same time, the Obamans, who can't run on an economic record, are boasting of their guy's toughness in foreign policy, certainly not an argument Obama raised in 2008.  The Dem base must be fainting.

November 25, 2011        Permalink 

BOOLA, BOOLA – AT 7:37 A.M. ET:  As we contemplate things for which to be thankful, some trends in higher education shouldn't be among them.   This isn't a major story, but I just had to pass it on to you.  From Fox:

A doctoral candidate in Yale University's American Studies Program is teaching a course in "nightlife culture" that includes DJ lecturers, a field trip to New York nightlife hot spots Le Bain and the Boom Boom Room and a discussion titled "Looks, Doors and Guest Lists: Getting Past the Velvet Rope."

"I worry about whether people will think this is serious," Madison Moore said. "But it's not just about getting drunk. It's about the history of it, the Harlem cabarets, understanding race, gender, sex, Prohibition and the law."
Ivy League schools seem to be taking party studies seriously -- nightlife kingpins Noah Tepperberg and Jason Strauss spoke recently at Harvard Business School. But some parents might have mixed feelings about the Yale syllabus, which includes headings like "Studio 54 and Limelight: The Birth of the Mega Club."

Yeah.  At fifty grand a year, some parents might worry.

Moore's "Dance Music and Nightlife Culture in New York City" seminar at the 310-year-old institution of higher learning also features texts by Village Voice writer Michael Musto (whose recent piece, "Why I Hate Nightlife," is a tortured love letter to the scene) and Anthony Haden-Guest, who won top prize in Spy magazine's 1988 Ironman Nightlife Decathlon.

Speakers include Madame Wong's and Red Egg pop-up club mastermind Simonez Wolf, Santos Party House's Andrew W.K. and Vibe magazine co-founder Scott Poulson-Bryant.

COMMENT:  This will produce our future leaders.  Get the white flags ready.

November 25, 2011       Permalink

THE GINGRICH FACTOR – AT 7:23 A.M. ET:  Now that Newt Gingrich is a top-tier, high-polling GOP candidate,  he's getting intense scrutiny in comments, columns, and news reports across the media.

Several themes emerge:  What Republicans like about Gingrich is his intellectual vitality and vast knowledge.  Many of them dream of him debating Barack Obama, a great voice attached to an empty suit.  Gingrich is a man of ideas.

On the other hand, many who've known him openly doubt his ability to perform the functions of a president.  According to a new piece in The Hill, that includes former colleagues:

Newt Gingrich has failed to land any lawmaker endorsements since he’s risen to the top of the polls, a sign that those who worked with the former Speaker in Congress aren’t warming to him.

In contrast, Mitt Romney, another frontrunner for the nomination, has announced several congressional endorsements in recent days, including Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) and Rep. Charlie Bass (R-N.H.).

Gingrich had a controversial reign over the lower chamber — he worked with then-President Clinton on welfare reform; but worked against Clinton on the budget, which included two government shutdowns. He ultimately resigned his congressional seat in November of 1998, after the GOP lost five House seats and he faced a leadership challenge.
“His tenure as speaker was turbulent, to put it mildly,” said Jack Pitney, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who grew acquainted with Gingrich in the 1980s. “You're not going to get a huge number of endorsements from people who actually served under him. Their memories are very mixed.”

COMMENT:  I suspect that this is more of a problem within the party than with the electorate.  Most voters don't particularly care what members of Congress think of a colleague, as long as the colleague hasn't done anything lewd or blatantly illegal.

But within the party Gingrich is going to face stiff opposition.  As the piece says, he isn't winning "Miss Congeniality."  Frankly, I think Romney will pull it out, but, if it really gets close, look for Gingrich's friction with other Republicans to become a major factor. 

November 25, 2011       Permalink

BLACK FRIDAY – AT 7:01 A.M. ET:  And the shopping rush is on.  But there is an issue, a legitimate one, that is maddening to many retailers.  From The Washington Times:

It’s a scenario all too familiar to retailers: A customer walks in, asks to see a product, discusses it at length with the sales staff, and then pulls out his cellphone.

Jason Brewer, vice president of communications and advocacy for the Retail Industry Leaders Association, explains what happens next: “He uses his smartphone to take a picture of the bar code on the back of the item, and then, right in front of the sales person, he checks prices and orders the item online.”

Why? Because most online outlets don’t charge sales tax, unlike traditional bricks-and-mortar stores. Buying online, especially when it comes to jewelry, cameras, computers and other high-end electronics, can save consumers a hefty chunk of change. But the costs to traditional retailers, not to mention state and local governments, are mounting.

“Not only does the retailer lose the sale, but the sales staff just lost 30 minutes telling the customer about the product,” Mr. Brewer said.

It’s infuriating to store owners, but after years of griping about the lack of fairness, this may well be the last holiday shopping season when bricks-and-mortar stores operate under a sales-tax handicap. A bipartisan consensus appears to be forming in Congress in favor of legislation that would close the tax loophole.

Such bills have come and gone for years, but the political winds took a turn this year, thanks largely to the efforts of lawmakers in California. The state waged a high-stakes duel with Amazon.com and won after the online giant agreed in September for the first time to comply with a state sales tax instead of fighting it in the courts or at the polls.

COMMENT:  Look, as a taxpayer, and someone who purchases online, I can't be thrilled about this.  But I do concede that there's a certain fairness involved.  I'd love to hear from readers and how you feel. 

Here in New York, online sellers located in the state must charge sales tax to state residents.  Because my major vendor is in New York, I pay the tax anyway, and so don't benefit from any breaks.  Should the system be unified, with one law covering the entire country?  You tell me.

November 25, 2011        Permalink

NOVEMBER 24,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:15 P.M. ET: 

ANOTHER WAY TO SAY THANKS – For the second time this week, a former Soviet satellite has dedicated a statue to Ronald Reagan.  Georgia's pro-Western president, Mikhail Saakashvili, unveiled the monument in the capital city of Tbilisi.   Earlier this week, Lech Walesa unveiled a statue of Reagan in Warsaw.  At least the East Europeans understand Reagan's vision and his contribution.  The American media might understand some day as well.

MORE IMAGINATION – Some parts of the "occupy" movement are encouraging fellow travelers to "occupy" large retail establishments tomorrow to disrupt them and reduce their profits.  Hey, that will do a great deal of good for their employees.  The idea, apparently, is to hurt companies that are publicly traded.  The economic philosophers of the "occupy" legions stress that they are not hitting small, local businesses, only the big guys.  Of course, many small, local businesses exist, especially in malls, because of the crowds generated by major retailers.  Let's keep that a secret.

CAUGHT? – Iran claims it has arrested 12 CIA agents.  The claim comes days after similar claims by Iran's client, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.  Anyone who's ever worked in intelligence knows never to discount claims like this.  They can easily be true.  We have operations in these countries, and sometimes a whole ring is taken down.  Washington has not commented on the reports.  The nationality of the alleged spies was not given, but it's probably safe to assume that, if they exists, they were "native assets," that is, native Iranians recruited by us. 

ROMNEY SOLID IN NEW HAMPSHIRE – A recent poll showing Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney close to tied in New Hampshire, but it now appears to have been an outlier.  A new survey shows Romney well ahead, with 42% of the vote of Republicans and independents likely to vote in the upcoming New Hampshire Primary.  Gingrich is a distant second with 15%.  Ron Paul who, like taxes, we will always have with us, is third with a steady, but not increasing, 12%.  Rick Perry and Herman Cain, who appear to have had their allotted 15 minutes of fame, are way back. 

November 24, 2011       Permalink

FRANCE LEADS, U.S. FOLLOWS – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  It is remarkable to see how France has jumped into the lead in Mideast affairs.  Didn't we once have some influence there?  Oh, yeah, then came the 2008 election.

Now France is imposing the toughest sanctions thus far on Iran:

France will stop importing Iranian oil at a national level as part of a proposal it made to its allies to consider ending purchases from the world's fifth largest producer, the foreign ministry said on Thursday.

Asked by Reuters whether the French government would force French oil major Total to stop its crude shipping business with Iran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said in a written answer, posted on the ministry's website:

"The interruption of Iranian oil purchases is among the measures proposed by France to its partners. We will apply this at a national level."

Good for France, which is also taking the lead in putting real heat on the thugs running Syria:

(Reuters) - France will seek Arab support on Thursday for a humanitarian corridor in Syria, the first time a major power has swung behind international intervention in the eight-month uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.

Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, who first floated the proposal for a humanitarian intervention on Wednesday, gave more details of the plan and said he would propose it to a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers gathering in Cairo to discuss Syria.

After months in which the international community has seemed determined to avoid any direct entanglement in one of the core countries of the Middle East, the diplomatic consensus seems to be changing.

COMMENT:  I'm not exactly sure what the U.S. policy toward Syria is.  Maybe, if the president can take some time between fundraisers, he can explain it to us.  Syria is Iran's major Arab ally, and thus far Mr. Obama, despite some meaningless tough talk, has gone pretty easy on Tehran and Damascus.  Hmm.  I wonder why.

Things are moving in that part of the world.  And, sad to say, they seem to be moving without us.

November 24, 2011        Permalink

OBAMA SLIPPING AMONG WORKING STIFFS – AT 10:43 A.M. ET:  The Democratic Party, once the home of the working man, seems to be losing his support.  Well, at least the current incumbent is.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) - Although President Barack Obama's overall approval rating remains steady, his standing among Democrats, and in particular among blue-collar Democrats, appears to have dropped, according to a new national survey.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Wednesday, 44% of Americans say they approve of the job the president's doing in the White House, with 54% saying they disapprove of how Obama is handling his duties. The president's approval rating has hovered in the same mid-40's range since June in CNN surveys.

But the poll indicates that there has been some change when Democrats are asked whether they want to see their party renominate Obama, with 26% of Democrats saying that they would prefer the party to nominate another Democrat for president next year, up from 18% in October.

Nonetheless, a robust 72% of Democrats are still in the president's corner - and in any case, the changes are strictly hypothetical, since there is no indication that Obama will face a serious challenger in any primary next year.

"The biggest change comes among white Democrats with no college education, a group typically considered the core of the party's blue-collar constituency," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Half of all white Democrats with no college education say they don't want President Obama heading their party's ticket next year."

COMMENT:  That is a staggering figure.  Now, true, some of it may, very frankly, be based on racial loyalty, but some of it has to come from the belief that Obama has done very little for working people, or, indeed, for most other Americans. 

Obama did not win blue-collar whites in the 2008 election, and has clearly not won their loyalty in the years since.  They used to be part of the reliable Democratic base. 

November 24, 2011       Permalink

HAPPY THANKSGIVING – AT 10:24 A.M. ET:  Am I permitted to say that?  Will the thought police arrest me? 

Well, I'll take the risk.  And if they get me, I'm assured that the local lockup has an internet connection.

The best way to contemplate Thanksgiving is to study President Lincoln's original proclamation of the day, issued only weeks before he delivered the Gettysburg Address:

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings off fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God.

In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.

Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defense, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle or the ship; the axe has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore.

Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battlefield; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.

No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and one voice by the whole American People.

I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens.

And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed. Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the United States the Eighty-eighth.

COMMENT:  Please note that President Lincoln ended the proclamation by noting not only the calendar year, but the year marking the independence of the United States.  It is a reminder of the concept of independence, and how important it has been to this country.  There is no freedom without independence.

November 24, 2011     Permalink