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OCTOBER 1,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:21 P.M. ET:

THE LIES KEEP COMING – We've reported on the worldwide campaign to prevent the execution of a Christian pastor in Iran, Youcef Nadarkhani, who was sentenced to death for refusing to renounce his Christian beliefs.  Now the mullah regime is claiming that the pastor is guilty of rape and extortion, even though no such charges appear in the trial documents.  It appears the government is simply trying to justify an execution that can take place in a matter of days.

OUR HEART BREAKS – Former President Bill Clinton, who, as we've reported here, is getting increasingly bizarre in his public statements, now claims that he hasn't received enough credit for the work he did as president.  Soon he'll ask that he be given a memorial in Washington, alongside Lincoln's.  Clinton has become a major international figure, and has made millions, in the years since leaving the White House.  You'd think that an impeached president would show a bit of humility, but humility has never been his thing.  The "international community," which never seems bothered by little things like an officeholder's personal morality, loves him. 

CUOMO FOR PRESIDENT?  – A lot of political eyes are on Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, son of former Governor Mario Cuomo.  Although a liberal Democrat by background, Cuomo is governing from the center, winning praise from both the center left and the center right – in other words the people who decide elections, not street demonstrations.  In his latest move, Cuomo has rejected a demand that New York's Medicaid program pay for sex change surgery.  A typical liberal would have approved it in a heartbeat.  There is widespread talk that Cuomo has his eye on a 2016 run for the White House, and I wouldn't be surprised.  In liberal New York, he's succeeding as a centrist.

ON ALERT – Washington is putting Americans all over the world on alert for possible retaliation for the killing of Al Qaeda bigwig Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, although terrorism experts say this is fairly standard procedure after a major anti-terror success.  It's been pointed out that there was no large act of retaliation, at least so far, for the killing of Osama bin Laden.  The New York Police Department is on high alert, especially for home-grown terrorists.  al-Awlaki was born in the United States and had a strong following here among those so inclined.

October 1, 2011     Permalink

GRIM ECONOMIC FORECAST – AT 11:28 A.M. ET:  How long have we been told by the Obamans that we're in a recovery?  I haven't noticed said recovery.  Have you?  Now the people who assess risks for banks are weighing in, and they don't paint a pretty picture.  From CNBC: 

Home prices are unlikely to recover before 2020 and mortgage defaults will persist for years, says a survey of bank risk managers out Friday.

The survey conducted by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association for FICO, found that 49 percent of respondents do not expect housing prices to rise back to 2007 levels for another nine years. Only 21 percent of respondents said they would.

The findings, which authors called “a decidedly pessimistic outlook”, are a sharp reversal from cautious optimism the survey respondents expressed late last year and in early 2011.

In addition, 73 percent of surveyed bankers say they expect mortgage defaults to remain elevated for at least another five years. And 46 percent believe mortgage delinquencies will increase over the next six months.

And...

A large number of respondents says they also expect to see an uptick in delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards and student loans.

Small businesses are expected to continue face a challenging credit environment. More than one-third of respondents forecast an increase in delinquencies on small business loans.

Bankers also appear to be pessimistic about recovery in consumer spending, with 64 percent of respondents expecting credit card usage to remain below pre-recession levels for at least five more years.

Half of the respondents expect credit card balances to increase over the next six months, due to higher spending by some households and smaller monthly payments by others.

COMMENT:  Ah, that old Democratic theme song, "Happy Days Are Here Again."  Not playing it too much these days. 

This survey confirms the views of many economic observers who believe that our problems are long term, and not given to quick fixes.  Both parties are going to take hits on the economy.  The better party will be the one with the better plan.

October 1, 2011       Permalink

FUTURE OF AL QAEDA – AT 10:53 A.M. ET:  We've taken out two major Al Qaeda figures, to Ron Paul's great regret, in recent months.  Osama bin Laden sleeps with the fishes.  Anwar al-Awlaki is apparently disassembled somewhere in a Yemeni desert, having been inconvenienced by an American drone.

But where does this leave Al Qaeda.  Experienced terrorism expert Peter Brooke, of the Heritage Foundation, has a good analysis:

First, Awlaki’s death deprives AQAP -- and al Qaeda globally -- of one of the most (if not the most) inspirational figures and talented operational commanders in its ranks, as evidenced by his work in just the last few years.

Some analysts recently came to see him as being as important to al Qaeda as Osama bin Laden himself, and actually thought he might come to lead the terror group after bin Laden bit the dust in May.

Next, al Qaeda has been stripped of one of its most powerful propagandists, who was especially skilled in so-called “digital jihad,” with a troubling ability to reach out to and recruit both English and Arabic speakers over the Internet. (Inspire’s editor was killed in the same drone attack that got Awlaki.)

So, for the moment, it’s likely to be harder, but not impossible, for al Qaeda to target future foot soldiers over the Web, and, hopefully, we’ll see Inspire find its way to the dustbin of history.

Moreover, Awlaki’s termination also lets terrorist and terrorist wannabes know that justice will find you if you start, or continue down, this bloody road, taking the lives of innocent people in your quest for power.

Finally, it’s possible that with Awlaki gone AQAP will stop targeting the West, specifically the United States. It may turn to toppling the Yemeni and Saudi governments, which has always been its top prize.

But all of this is in some ways uncertain. After all, al Qaeda didn’t throw up its hands and surrender after we offed Osama in May. It appointed a new leader in the likes of Ayman al Zawahiri, the Egyptian who had long served as bin Laden’s deputy.

Similarly, it’s likely Awlaki will be replaced in the AQAP lineup by someone who’ll be anxious to prove he’s as skilled and as capable as his predecessor was in carrying out al Qaeda’s odious objectives.

There will also likely be a desire to seek revenge for the killing of Awlaki, perhaps meaning more violence directed at us. The group will certainly want to show prospective recruits and funders that it’s still worthy of the al Qaeda brand name. It still has the resources: AQAP has seized control of territory in Yemen from which it can still plan, train and operate.

And we shouldn’t forget there’s still plenty of al Qaeda out there, including al Qaeda in Iraq, al Shabab (Somalia), al Qaeda in the Maghreb (North Africa) and al Qaeda Central (Pakistan) -- not to mention its allies like the Taliban and Haqqani network in Afghanistan.

Bottom line: We’re better off now that Awlaki is gone, but the threat from al Qaeda and its affiliates isn’t. A sigh of relief -- like that after the taking of bin Laden -- is a reasonable response, but embracing complacency isn’t.

COMMENT:  Well said.  In World War II the United States killed Japan's most gifted naval leader, Isoroku Yamamoto, who'd planned the attack on Pearl Harbor, but Japan fought on bitterly for another two years.  One of Nazi Germany's most accomplished generals, Irwin Rommel, was forced to commit suicide in late 1944, but Germany fought on, inflicting enormous casualties for many months. 

There is an old French saying, wrongly attributed to DeGaulle, that the graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men.  We should always remember that.   We'll meet Al Qaeda again.

October 1, 2011       Permalink

GOP LEADS IN COMPETENCE POLL – AT 10:24 A.M. ET:  While these polls do not necessarily predict winners on election day, they do give us a snapshot of how people are thinking.  Right now they're thinking that the Republicans are just more competent than the Dems.  From The Hill:

More Americans believe that Republicans can do a better job on both the economy and national security, a poll released Friday showed.

Asked which party is best able to keep the United States prosperous, 48 percent chose the GOP while 39 percent chose Democrats. The numbers were similar on protecting the nation from external threats: Forty-nine percent favor Republicans versus 38 percent for Democrats, according to the Gallup poll.

The party that controls the White House historically takes a major hit in the polls, a political rendering of “the grass is always greener.” But the lack of faith in Democrats’ abilities bodes poorly for the party in 2012 as it tries to reelect President Obama, wrest back control of the House and keep the GOP from overtaking the Senate.
Americans surveyed also said they saw the GOP as better able to deal with whatever problem they identified as the most important.

COMMENT:  As the story notes, the party controlling the White House often slips in competence polls, as problems build up.  Also, the Republican Party, as a party, doesn't rank particularly well in polls.  There is a major battle ahead for actual votes on election day.

October 1, 2011     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 30,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 A.M. ET: 

STILL RECONSIDERING? – The AP has joined the list of news organizations reporting, based on anonymous sources, that Chris Christie is "reconsidering" his decision not to join the presidential race.  If he waits much longer, he can join Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani in the National Society of Reconsiderers, now being formed.  Because of filing deadlines in several primary states, Christie only has weeks to decide. 

ROMNEY, CHRISTIE, CHALLENGE OBAMA IN POLLS – A new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney and Chris Christie nipping at Obama's heels.  In a direct matchup among likely voters, it's Romney 44% versus Obama 42%.  And it's Christie 43%, Obama 44%.  But both Rick Perry and now Herman Cain are within single digits of the president.  The poll is one of a number showing Romney having the best chance of defeating Obama, although not by much.

GEORGE EASTMAN MUST BE TURNING OVER – Like many people interested in photography, I grew up on the film "in the yellow box."  Photography meant Kodak.  The first camera for many of us was a Kodak Baby Brownie.  Our memories are on Kodak film, in my case Kodachrome, which many consider the finest slide film ever made.   Now it is reported that Eastman Kodak may declare bankruptcy, and has hired legal advisers, although the company asserts that it is first pursuing other forms of restructuring.  The rapid decline of film photography and the failure of the Rochester, New York, firm to be ahead of the digital curve have led to a precarious economic situation.  A sad time for a company that is more than numbers.  It is a memory.

STYLE AND MONEY –  Some liberal columnists are going berserk over Chris Christie's considerable girth, some declaring it a disqualification.  I find it amusing that liberals are the very people who, for years, have lectured us on judging people by their appearance, on ethnic profiling, on sexist references to women's looks, etc., etc.  It's been my experience that liberals are interested in two things – style and money.  Substance is a distant third.  The liberal commentators are proving it once again.  Why, for goodness sake, Chris Christie doesn't look the part of a president.  How can one accept him?  I recall how libs swooned over Adlai Stevenson in the 1950s because he had some style.  No substance, plenty of style.  Nothing changes.

September 30, 2011       Permalink

WHACKJOBS OF THE WORLD UNITE! – AT 7:44 P.M. ET:  Well, I guess it was inevitable.   The usual suspects are out in force today, denouncing the killing of Al Qaeda terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki, taken out in Yemen by an American drone.

Anwar al-Awlaki was an American citizen who'd gone to Yemen to fight against the United States.  On the left, the ACLU is arguing that he was entitled to due process.  (Does that include an appearance on television's "The People's Court"?)  On the right, Ron Paul, who has the nerve to call himself a Republican, is arguing the same thing.  This demonstrates one of the first laws of political science, that the extreme left and the extreme right always meet.

It is highly unlikely that any federal court would uphold the argument that President Obama would have to seek al-Awlaki's arrest and give him his Miranda rights.  He was an enemy combatant engaged in operations against this country.   I'm not sure Constitutional protections were designed for chaps like this.

But it's interesting to watch the expected crowd, which never seems to fret about victims' rights, have their usual outing.

September 30, 2011       Permalink 

WHAT WE FACE – AT 9:44 A.M. ET:  President Obama came to office with the idea of "engaging" the Muslim world.  That effort has resulted in absolutely nothing.  In fact, the most belligerent of the Muslim countries have actually become more hostile.

The worst, and most dangerous, is Iran.  And what is the character of the regime there?  It has now sentenced to death a Christian pastor who refuses to renounce his Christianity.  The story is now growing around the world.  It is possible the execution may take place within days unless it is stopped:

In 2010, the Iranian regime carried out 546 executions, more than at any other time during the preceding decade, and representing an increase of around 25 per cent on the previous year. Increasingly, execution is becoming Tehran's favored method for dealing with anyone it deems an opponent -- like Pastor Yousef Nadarkhani, an Iranian pastor who has refused to recant his Christian faith.

Pastor Nadarkhani's case is another grim illustration of the volatile situation faced by religious minorities living under Iran's Islamist clerics. Even though the state formally recognizes the existence of Christians, Jews and Zoroastrians, these minorities are under no illusions about their subordinate status...

...Pastor Nadarkhani's embrace of Christianity, is a prime example of "moharebeh," and carries the penalty of death. This is despite the fact that Nadarkhani maintains he has never been a Muslim as an adult. But an Islamic court has determined that he has Islamic ancestry and therefore must recant his faith.

COMMENT:  We will keep you informed of developments.  The Iranian regime has occasionally shown itself to be responsive to international protests, if only to improve its image and to influence simpler minds in the West.  We'd like to hear from President Obama.

September 30, 2011       Permalink 

GROWN-UPS AT WORK – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  Bill Clinton, who's been making a fool of himself on several fronts recently, has expressed the prayer that someday it will be politically impossible in America for anyone to doubt the climate-change religion. 

How brilliant.  How intellectual.  Maybe Bill should give back his Rhodes scholarship.  At a time when more and more first-class scientists are raising doubts about the holy texts taught in the Church of the Global Warming, Clinton wants to shut down discussion.  I'd love to know where his investments are.

Now comes along an utterly fascinating development – a serious scientific challenge to Einstein's general theory of relativity.  And what do we see at work?  Real science.  Not political science.  Not trendy science.  But a true scientific discussion, not led by Al Gore.

The Harvard Crimson has run a fine piece that shows us how scientific claims are handled by the adults:

The results of a recent physics experiment at the European Organization for Nuclear Research may pose the most direct challenge to Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity since its inception, holding the fate of modern physics in the balance.

Last Thursday, the OPERA (Oscillation Project with Emulsion-tRacking Apparatus) experiment revealed the discovery of neutrinos, neutral subatomic particles, measured at speeds faster than the speed of light...

...The discovery conflicts with the premises of Einstein’s theory of relativity, which suggests that no object can move faster than the speed of light in a vacuum.

And...

Irwin I. Shapiro, a Harvard physics professor, points out the careful scrutiny needed when reviewing these results.

“I would have to know a lot more about how the team measured the distance between its two sites, especially the geodetic connections between the surface and the underground sites, before I would even begin to take this claim seriously,” he said.

Indeed, the results have been met with great skepticism in the scientific community, with many physicists pointing out the myriad potential sources of error.

WHAT?  You mean we can question scientists?  You mean we don't have to accept everything they say?  Yeah, we can do that.

Harvard Professor of Physics Emeritus Gerald Holton also suggests that the reason for the small difference might lie with the original accepted value of the speed of light.

“The new experiments compare themselves with the old, internationally accepted value of the speed of light ‘c,’” Holton said. “But it is little known outside the profession that the international agreement of the speed of light was not the result of a specific experiment [but] rather a decision of an international body.”

Yikes!  An international body?  Did you know that?  I didn't.  Does it sound familiar to you, as in "the international consensus on climate change."  We've learned that much of the "settled" science on climate change is actually coming from "international bodies."  Hmm.  Why do I think we're getting somewhere?

In any case, the physics community seems to have reached a consensus that much further testing and experimentation lies ahead before Einstein’s theories will be debunked.

COMMENT:  Yup.  Look at the contrast between this cautious approach, with demands for real confirmation, and the farcical nature of the global warming discussion, with Al Gore suggesting that skeptics are the equivalent of racists, and others comparing skepticism to Holocaust denial.

Maybe even the trendy media will learn something from the Einstein discussion, but I'm not holding my breath.

September 30, 2011       Permalink

AMBUSHED AT PASSION GAP – AT 8:07 A.M. ET:  All elections are won by turnout.   Only those who vote get to decide who wins.  So if you're suffering a passion gap – a lack of enthusiasm on the part of your supporters – you're in trouble.  It's clear from a new Gallup Poll that Obama is passion deprived:   

PRINCETON, NJ -- In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic. This is in sharp contrast to 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2004, when the great majority of Democrats expressed heightened enthusiasm about voting.

Democrats' muted response to voting in 2012 also contrasts with Republicans' eagerness. Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans, 58%, describe themselves as more enthusiastic about voting. That is nearly identical to Republicans' average level of enthusiasm in 2004 (59%) and higher than it was at most points in 2008.

And...

The difference between Democrats' enthusiasm and Republicans' enthusiasm can be summarized by plotting the difference in the two groups' net enthusiasm scores -- that is, the percentage of each group saying they are more enthusiastic minus the percentage less enthusiastic.

Democrats' net enthusiasm (+1) now trails Republicans' net enthusiasm (+28) by 27 percentage points. By contrast, Democrats held the advantage on net enthusiasm throughout 2008 -- on several occasions, by better than 40-point margins. Democrats occasionally trailed Republicans in net enthusiasm in 2004, but never by as much as is seen today. The current balance of enthusiasm among Republicans and Democrats is similar to what Gallup found in the first few months of 2000.

COMMENT:  Obama's problem is that, to get back his full Democratic base, topped off with zeal, would require government programs and expenditures that the GOP House will never pass. 

Obama's hope for victory lies, as presidential victories usually do, in the center, and there his fate depends largely on who the Republicans nominate.  If the GOP goes off the deep end, the center might, although with reluctance, vote to give Obama a second term.   If the GOP has a superb candidate, I think Obama might familiarize himself with moving companies.

September 30, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN:  ANOTHER MAJOR AL QAEDA FIGURE HAS BEEN KILLED – AT 7:44 A.M. ET:  From The Hill:

American-born Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, a leading figure in al Qaeda, was killed in Yemen on Friday morning, according to reports.

American forces, using predator drones, were responsible for his death, NBC News reported.

After the death of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said two of his top goals were to remove Ayman al-Zawahri, the new head of the terrorist organization, and Awlaki.

The Obama administration authorized Awlaki's killing in April 2010. His death is one of the most signficant victories in the war against al Qaeda since bin Laden's.

Awlaki, a New Mexico-born cleric, has been implicated in several attacks on U.S. soil, the reports note, including the shootings at Fort Hood, Texas, in 2009; an attempt later that year to bomb a Detroit-bound airliner; and a 2010 attempt to send parcel bombs on cargo plans bound for the United States.

He left the United States in 2002. His lectures in English on Islamic scripture drew countless followers on the Internet, including Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, the Army psychiatrist charged in the Fort Hood shootings. Faisal Shahzad, who tried to set off a car bomb in Times Square last year, cited Awlaki as an inspiration.

COMMENT:  That is good news, and we don't hesitate to praise the Obama administration for pursuing security policies, based on those initiated by President Bush, that led to this success. 

We might also single out Leon Panetta, who was made head of the CIA when Obama took office, despite doubts about his lack of intelligence experience, and who has served admirably.  He is currently standing up for an adequate defense budget, in the face of mindless budget slashers who only see numbers. 

Of course, the zombie left will probably see this incident as another sign that Obama has abandoned them.  I hope they're right, or, er, left.

September 30, 2011     Permalink