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OCTOBER 7,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:44 P.M. ET:

OBAMA NOT GALLOPING – President Obama's standing in the Gallup Poll is grim at best.  The poll of 1,500 adults (so they say) shows 38% approval, 53% disapproval.  By contrast, Rasmussen has 42% of likely voters at least somewhat approving, with 57% somewhat disapproving.  These two polls are showing some of the worst numbers ever for Obama.  But remember, when Obama is matched head-to-head with named Republican opponents, he actually does quite well.  The unpopularity of the Republican Party nationally is dragging down its candidates.

RUMBLINGS IN EUROPE – Fitch Ratings has now downgraded the financial standing of both Spain and Italy, two countries in serious financial trouble, and Europe's fourth- and third-largest economies.  Greece is already sinking.  Americans have not yet focused on the impact that European defaults can have on the international financial system, and ultimately on the United States itself.  Indeed, financial markets around the world watch the European situation closely, and so should we.

MORE SMEARS ON PERRY – As we wrote earlier today, many of the attacks on Rick Perry have been grossly unfair, twisting his words or his record.  One thing he hasn't been accused of, until today, is being anti-Latino.  In fact, some Republicans think he's entirely too liberal on illegal immigration.  But along comes Texas Democratic leader Boyd Richie today to accuse Governor Perry of, yes, being anti-Latino.  We have no idea what will come next, but we hear that Perry has said some very bigoted things about space aliens. ( Pass it on.)  At the same time, Perry's response to the assaults against him has been entirely too weak, betraying his reputation as a hard-nosed fighter.  Let's see that nose, Rick. 

OH THANK YOU, DEAR LEADER – Once-famous filmmaker Michael Moore is riding to the rescue of the "Occupy Wall Street" crowd.  He announces before the world that he will donate some of the proceeds from his new book, "Here Comes Trouble" to the cause.  Now, given Moore's current status, the total proceeds from the book may come to $8.95, and "some" isn't all.  So maybe five bucks will help.  Oh, Moore also says he wants to help bring wi-fi to the demonstrators.  Nothing like devoting yourself to major social needs.

October 7, 2011     Permalink

THE SPIN IS IN – AT 8:57 A.M. ET:   New jobs figures are out, they appear good at first look, and some in the mainstream media are already spinning this as proof that we're recovering.  But the devil, as always, is in the details, and the devil lives.  From Bloomberg:

Employers added more payrolls than forecast in September, job gains were revised up in the prior two months and hours and earnings increased, helping ease concerns the U.S. labor market is deteriorating.

Payrolls climbed by 103,000 workers after a revised 57,000 increase the prior month that was more than originally estimated, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise of 60,000. The gain reflected the return to work of 45,000 telecommunications employees. The jobless rate held at 9.1 percent.

Whoops.  Little problem there.  Those 45,000 returnees really shouldn't be counted because they don't really represent job growth.  And the jobless rate wasn't dented at all.

Faster job growth is a sign employers remain confident the U.S. will avoid a renewed slump, even as unemployment is forecast to remain above 8 percent through 2013. The risk that the world’s largest economy may fall back into a recession has prompted the Federal Reserve and President Barack Obama to announce further measures to sustain the expansion.

Maddening journalism.  The fact is that, even if you take these numbers at face value, they don't come close to reversing our economic decline.  This country must produce 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep pace with the growing population.  So I see no reason for cheering.  But we're approaching an election, and some members of the media will cheer the news that a local diner hired an extra part-time waitress. 

In the real world, there is this, from London's Telegraph:

The world is facing the worst financial crisis since at least the 1930s “if not ever”, the Governor of the Bank of England said last night.

Sir Mervyn King was speaking after the decision by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to put £75billion of newly created money into the economy in a desperate effort to stave off a new credit crisis and a UK recession.

Economists said the Bank’s decision to resume its quantitative easing [QE], or asset purchase programme, showed it was increasingly fearful for the economy, and predicted more such moves ahead.

Sir Mervyn said the Bank had been driven by growing signs of a global economic disaster.

“This is the most serious financial crisis we’ve seen, at least since the 1930s, if not ever. We’re having to deal with very unusual circumstances, but to act calmly to this and to do the right thing.”

COMMENT:  Pretty blunt talk, reflecting the possibility of a series of European national defaults.  The Chinese have an old curse:  "May you live in interesting times."  And we do.

October 7, 2011       Permalink

MORE BACK TO THE SIXTIES – AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  Amazing, isn't it?  Our politics are really rewinding to the 1960s as liberals fight a rear-guard action.  Note our first two stories this morning.

Now President Obama adds his voice, endorsing the protest movement that is growing in America's cities, even though some of the protests are directed against his own inaction.  From Fox:

Three weeks into a growing protest movement targeting Wall Street and the nation’s financial services sector, President Obama expressed empathy Thursday for the demonstrators, even going so far as to elevate them as a force in the 2012 election cycle.

“I think part of people’s frustrations, part of my frustration, was a lot of [lending] practices that should not have been allowed weren’t necessarily against the law, but they had a huge destructive impact,” the president said at a midday news conference Thursday.

No doubt about that.  But a lot of those practices began with two Democratic institutions, Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.  No mention of that.

The protestors, he added, “are giving voice to a more broad-based frustration about how our financial system works…and that's going to express itself politically in 2012 and beyond.”

The remarks represented Obama’s first public comment on the “Occupy Wall Street” movement, which is now in its third week, and has led to more than 700 arrests in New York and elsewhere.

Yup.  Watch what happens outside the Republican convention next year.  You may well see a repeat of the chaos that surrounded the Democratic convention in Chicago in 1968.  History doesn't repeat itself, but the psychology and tactics of history repeat themselves.  The Democrats, a regressive party, are determined to go back in time.

But Rep. Peter King , R-N.Y., who sits on the House Financial Services Committee, blasted President Obama for siding with the protesters.

“What they're doing is disgraceful,” King said in an interview with Fox News. “They should be denounced; they're breaking the law; they're serving no real purpose at all….And for the president or anyone else to give them any credence or credibility is also irresponsible.”

Asked by the liberal website Slate.com if he sees the Occupy Wall Street protests as helpful in moving the president's jobs bill through Congress, White House Chief of Staff William Daley -- a former executive at J.P. Morgan Chase, one of Wall Street’s most prominent investment houses -- proved more circumspect than his boss.

"I don't know," Daley said.

Daley's father was Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago, who had to contend with the organized mayhem at the Democratic convention of 1968.  Thus Bill Daley might be a little more reluctant than his boss to praise out-of-control demonstrators.

Soon the Dems will try to resurrect Walter Cronkite.  Why not go the whole distance?

October 7, 2011     Permalink

AND NOW PERRY – AT 7:52 A.M. ET:  Like many others, I've been disappointed in Rick Perry's efforts in his run for the Republican presidential nomination.  At the same time, I think he's been treated with gross unfairness by the establishment media and some of his opponents.  Like Scott Brown, he's been the subject of a 1960s-style smear...that he's a closet racist.

The Washington Post ran a poorly sourced story claiming that a large rock (actually a boulder) outside a hunting ground that the Perry family leased had a racially offensive word written on it.  Perry has explained that his family, upon taking the lease, immediately had the word painted over.  Not good enough say those who've made their careers out of practicing their modern-day McCarthyism, planting ugly labels on any member of the opposition. 

Now Perry has replied to the smear on camera:

Call Al Sharpton and Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.

Rick Perry went on camera yesterday to address the Washington Post story about an offensive rock on land leased by Perry's father for hunting.

“I think there were very much, some strong inconsistencies and just misinformation in that story,” Perry told Fox News Channel reporter Juliet Huddy in an interview this morning. “I know for a fact that in 1984, that rock was painted over. It was painted over very soon, my family did that.”

The interview was aired on Bill O'Reilly's show last night.

When asked about the Washington Post story that cited several sources who said they had seen the carving on the rock, Perry responded,“We painted over that rock and it stayed that way. I have no idea where or why people would say that they had seen that rock, because that’s just not the fact.”

Al Sharpton demanded earlier this week to stop "hiding behind a spokesman" and address the issue personally. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. sponsored a House resolution on the floor yesterday calling for Perry to publicly apologize.

COMMENT:  Oh,  you can be sure Jesse Jackson Jr., one of the more ethically challenged members of Congress, introduced his resolution.  What else does he have to do?  What else has he ever done?

Rick Perry may be many things, but he's no racist.  He appointed the first African-American chief justice of his state's highest court. 

But we are getting a taste of the 2012 campaign.  And it will be very, very ugly.

October 7, 2011        Permalink

REAL WOMEN – AT 7:19 A.M. ET:  It is simply remarkable to watch liberals who can't get their heads out of the 1960s.  They call themselves "progressive," but in fact they're reactionary, tired, unimaginative, and sometimes plain dishonest.

Thus we see the hypocritical reaction of self-described "women's" groups – read that leftist groups – to an understandable wisecrack by Republican Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts.  Brown, on a radio show, was responding to a snotty comment by ultra-lib Harvard Law School Professor Elizabeth Warren, who will probably be Brown's Democratic opponent in next year's Senate election.  When describing her own college experience, Warren said, "I kept my clothes on."  It was a reference to the fact that Brown, who had to work his way through college, and who had a tumultuous family life, once did an unrevealing "centerfold" for a magazine, a fact well known.  When told of the remark, Brown replied, "Thank God."

Well now!  You can just hear the uproar from groups that have remained incredibly silent on the real oppression of women in Muslim countries, and right here in America, where honor killings of women have occurred.  Mustn't criticize other "cultural expressions."  Get this, from the head of an organization that used to be important:

“This is the kind of sexist misogynistic attack that we have very sadly come to expect from politicians whenever there is a strong woman who is capable and really dedicated to the betterment of all the people,” Terry O’Neill, president of National Organization for Women, told POLITICO.

“And I really think that the biggest apology he owes is not to Elizabeth Warren — she is strong, trust me, she can take it — he owes an apology to the women of Massachusetts,” she said.

Brown’s comment, O’Neill added, is reason for Brown to “reconsider whether he should be a United States senator,” and “he should seriously consider dropping out of the race,” she said.

Yeah, let's emphasize the really important things in politics.

Fortunately, two female senators – real, gutsy women – have come immediately to Brown's defense:

Two prominent female Republican senators defended Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) on Thursday after the Massachusetts freshman came under intense fire for cracking a joke about his leading opponent Elizabeth Warren.

But Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) defended Brown and his comments in statements to POLITICO.

“I know Scott Brown’s story, and I know that he had many obstacles to overcome in his youth,” Ayotte said. “It’s inappropriate to make light of his personal circumstances, or to disparage or belittle him for the decisions he made to improve his life. Scott is one of the best guys to work with in the Senate, and I am proud to call him my colleague.”

Collins similarly turned the spotlight on Warren, saying Brown was “merely responding” to comments first made by the Harvard professor, in which she “made light of the difficult choices in his life...”

If anyone deserves an apology here it is Scott Brown.  The so-called "women's" groups are using the same, tired tactics of the past.  Say something they don't like and you're either a "racist," a "misogynist," or an overall threat to society.  You're seeing it today in attempts to label the Tea Party as "racist."  Brown's campaign has fired back:

Jim Barnett, Brown’s campaign manager, told POLITICO earlier on Thursday: “It’s elitist of Professor Warren to look down at the decisions Scott Brown made to put himself through college and rise above the circumstances of his life. Scott has fought and scraped for everything he’s got."

I think Warren's attack will backfire.  In attacking Brown these elitist groups are attacking women who've made difficult choices at stressful times in their lives, choices they'd prefer to forget. 

This country is in trouble, and it isn't in trouble because of Scott Brown's wisecrack.  It's in trouble because of the policies of the very administration these groups helped put in office.

Comment, Professsor Warren?

October 7, 2011       Permalink

OCTOBER 6,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:46 P.M. ET:

MITT APPOINTS – Mitt Romney clearly wants to project an image of inevitability, and so he's behaving like a general-election candidate.  That may well be a good strategy.  Today he appointed a star-studded list of heavyweights to be foreign- and national-security advisers.  The list, found here, reflects a generally conservative view of the world, Reaganesque we might say.  The most imaginative name:  Nile Gardiner, Director of the Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom and a former researcher for Thatcher.  Romney is clearly signaling that he will restore the special relationship that Obama has worked hard to weaken.

VULGAR – We don't expect much taste from MSNBC, home of TV's whining liberals, but the basement was probably reached in a signoff by Martin Bashir, a new MSNBC host, who exploited the death of Steve Jobs to take a stab at Sarah Palin, who'd just announced that she would not be running for president.  Said this alleged journalist:  “Although the death of Steve Jobs coincided with Sarah Palin’s announcement, it has been a helpful accident of fate,” adding “because it allows us to realize and commemorate the greatness of one’s individual’s contribution, and the utter futility of the other.”  Real class, Marty, real class.  We're sure the pseudo-intellectuals at MSNBC have sent their congratulations.

ADVICE FROM JIMMY – Jimmy Carter, to whom Obama is increasingly compared, is in Oslo this week, and is using his visit to Norway, which has one of the goofiest governments in Europe, to lecture President Obama, saying that Obama must live up to his Nobel Peace Prize.  Maybe the way Arafat did.  Carter is a vile man and constant self-promoter.  There is a tradition that advice is given to the president privately, especially advice tendered by former presidents.  We're certainly not fans of Obama here, but his office deserves more respect from a former holder of that office, even though the former holder diminished it considerably.  Public lectures to the president by Jimmy ("I'm the best former president ever") Carter are way out of line.  But Carter considers himself too good for our traditions.

NEW MEDICAL CONDITION! – A new medical condition known as "text neck" has been discovered.  It comes from being hunched over a mobile phone or tablet.  It can result in headaches and pain.  And, of course, there are treatments available, in exchange for mucho dollars.  Yeah, I know text neck.  I've known it since I took my first exam in junior high.  Strange, they didn't have a name for it then.  The cure was getting through the exam quickly and straightening up, even looking at things like a pretty girl at the next desk.  And to think, I discovered this and they didn't give me the Nobel Prize.  I'll sue.

October 6, 2011       Permalink 

A WARNING FROM LEON – AT 8:36 P.M. ET:  Leon Panetta, who'd been a pretty conventional liberal Democrat, has turned out to be one of President Obama's better appointments, first as director of Central Intelligence, and now as secretary of defense.  Panetta has turned out to be a national defense Democrat, and he is warning, firmly and loudly, about extreme defense cuts.  From The Politico:

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta arrived at the Pentagon as a man who matched the times, a shrewd insider Democrats viewed as possessing the will and the weight to tame the sprawling defense budget.

But in only a few short months, Panetta has emerged instead as Washington’s sharpest critic of further cuts — an unexpected Mr. Doomsday of the supercommittee deficit drama.

He has angered Democrats by urging Congress to whack Social Security and Medicare before touching defense again. He drew scorn from liberal and conservative analysts alike for predicting a 1-point hike in the unemployment rate if the supercommittee deadlocks and the Pentagon loses $600 billion in funding. And he has delighted Republicans with his constant, cataclysmic warnings about the perils of trimming even one more dollar from the defense budget.

Good for Leon! 

But reasonable cuts can, of course, be made.  The Department of Defense does not always plan well, and, if we really care about defense, we should subject the Pentagon to tough, but honest scrutiny.  Will Stroock, an Urgent Agenda reader and contributor, is an expert in these matters.  A distinguished military historian and fine military novelist, he's written a thoughtful essay for us on the very subject of defense cuts, showing what a knowledgeable approach can do.  He says:

I am not advocating deep cuts in American defense spending, but I do say that modest savings can be found by eliminating infrastructure that is no longer needed. For example, we could close Ellsworth AFB in South Dakota and Whiteman AFB in Missouri. These are Cold War relics. It makes absolutely no sense to have strategic bombers, slated to strike targets on the other side of the world, stationed in the center of North America. They should be stationed in Hawaii and Guam. More savings could be found by bringing the last of our ground combat troops, four brigades and a Stryker regiment, home from Europe. There is already a massive American presence in Central Asia and Iraq, bringing these troops home from Europe does not affect our deterrent in that part of the world. These brigades could be deployed to Guam, Hawaii and Alaska, or at least the West Coast, to keep an eye on China.

Remember a few things about military cuts. When you trim, say 5 billion from the defense budget, you save 5 billion this year, and the next year, and the year after that…. Also, and more importantly from a political standpoint, the public will embrace cuts in defense spending. As the GOP proposes entitlement reform, we better have an answer to liberal charges that we are slashing services to our "most vulnerable" but leaving defense intact.

Will Stroock's full essay will be available at our weekend edition of "The Angel's Corner," and I urge you to read it.  And, by the way, check out Will's new novel, "To Defend the Earth."  Great story, and you'll learn much.  It's at Amazon, here.  It's always great to read an author who actually knows what he's writing about.

October 6, 2011       Permalink

RIGHT UP THERE WITH THE WINNERS – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  Andrew Malcolm has one of the best, and best written, political blogs on the web.  He has just moved from the Los Angeles Times to Investors.com, one of our favorite sites.  Check him out here if you haven't already done so.

Andrew reports on another famous polling victory for the man who came down in 2008 to save us from all evil:

In the accelerating chronicles of the Democrat's decline, Barack Obama has just achieved a new level of disapproval among American voters:

On the 990th day of his presidency, 52% of his countrymen disapprove of the Chicagoan, according to Gallup's latest three-day rolling average.

That means Americans now think as little of their own president as they do of Vladimir Putin, the former Russian spymaster and authoritarian tough guy who's expected to become president again over there.

That's gotta sting.

Putin's the unsmiling fellow who's seen abroad as reining in Russia's democratic movement, limiting independent media and allowing a certain cult of macho man personality to develop around his outdoor adventures and frequently shirtless torso.

Yeah, and we've seen Obama shirtless on the beach, he doesn't seem too high on democracy around the world, and our media has limited its own independence in his service.  Hey, wait.  What country are we talking about?

Rasmussen Reports surveyed 1,000 Americans last week and found 52% had an unfavorable view of the once-and-likely-future president of the Russian Federation. That includes 23% who have a Very Unfavorable view.

COMMENT:  I'd love to see one of Obama's old hard-left friends burst into the Oval Office and announce, "Barack, joyous day.  You're as popular as Comrade Putin." 

A moment in history. 

October 6, 2011        Permalink

STILL MISERABLE – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  The weekly unemployment report has just been issued, and it isn't pleasant.   Despite the fact that new unemployment claims are slightly lower than expected, that's like saying the Titanic is sinking a bit more slowly than the engineers had thought.  From The Wall Street Journal:

New claims for unemployment benefits rose only a bit last week following the steep drop in the previous period, but moved back over the key 400,000 level.

Initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000 the week ended Oct. 1, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims filed in the previous week had dropped by 33,000, the sharpest decline in more than four months.

The data were better than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast claims would bounce back up by 19,000.

Still, the level of claims remains too high to signal a real improvement in the labor market. Economists generally think the economy is adding more jobs than it is shedding once the figure falls below 400,000. It's been below that mark only for nine weeks this year -- only to bounce back up above it.

The four-week moving average of new claims, a more reliable indicator of the labor market's recent performance because it smoothes out the volatile weekly figures, fell by 4,000 last week to 414,000.

COMMENT:   The election is barely more than a year away.  If this economy doesn't turn around, it could sink Obama...unless the Republicans do their usual loser thing.  Indeed, if the economy remains this bad, and Obama wins despite it, it would be one of the stunning political miracles of modern American politics.  Don't you sometimes wish that Reagan had been cloned?

October 6, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:18 A.M. ET: 

From Bloomberg:  Billionaire investor George Soros lost a challenge to his 2002 insider trading conviction, with the European Court of Human Rights saying French market regulations were clear enough to hold him responsible.  France didn’t violate Soros’s rights in punishing him criminally for trading on inside information about Societe Generale SA in spite of the market regulator’s conclusion that its rules were unclear, the Strasbourg, France-based court said. 

Hmm.  When is the last time you read that George Soros, financial darling of the left, was criminally convicted?  Why, isn't he just a wonderful philanthropist?  At heart a man of the people?  Uh, not quite.  He has a strange and controversial past, and stranger political views.  But he backs causes that are popular with the media elite, so what do minor court convictions mean, right?

TRUE CULTURAL CHANGE – AT 7:51 A.M. ET:  "Cultural change" is a cliché.  But when it actually happens, it can happen rapidly, and be stunning.  The coming of rock 'n roll in the 50s, the collapse of golden-age Hollywood in the 60s, "live-together-before-marriage" phenomenon that has become commonplace.  Those were cultural changes.

We are seeing one now.  Have you ever witnessed the outpouring on the death of a corporate executive that we're seeing with Steve Jobs?  There truly is the belief that he changed the world.  It may be part myth, part truth, but the belief is there.  And there is true emotion in the reaction.  It is reported that in China, people went to the few Apple Stores there and wept.  In our country, even the White House issued a statement marking Jobs's passing.

Outside of the deaths of presidents, I've not seen such a spontaneous reaction in years.  Not even major entertainers have gotten this kind of press.  Indeed, the last time I truly saw something like this was the reaction to the death of Babe Ruth. 

It was part of Jobs's genius that he gave us a personal relationship with machines.  The same might be said of some auto executives, but no one man ever defined cars the way Jobs defined computers. 

The death of Steve Jobs is the first major passing of a key figure of the digital age.   The reaction shows just how much that age has changed us.

October 6, 2011       Permalink

POST-CHRISTIE, POST-PALIN – AT 7:32 A.M. ET:  It appears the Republican field is set, unless a truly dark horse suddenly announces a run.  Yes, Rudy Giuliani is still undecided, and in fact polls reasonably well, but his Hamlet routine is wearing thin, and his exploits on 9/11 a distant memory.  We detect no great "wanting" of Rudy.

So who benefits?

With Christie out, Romney won a string of endorsements yesterday, but mostly from political insiders, not major names.  There is a consensus growing that he will eventually be the Republican nominee.  He has fended off a challenge from Rick Perry, whose impressive fundraising in the last quarter is not matched by public support.  Romney may face a surprise competitor in Herman Cain, who's become remarkably popular in the Republican Party, but Cain has not been fully vetted, and doesn't really have a presidential campaign organization.

Romney, though, has a huge deficit, one that he'll carry with him even if he is the nominee:  He attracts plenty of "like," but little love.  In 2008 there was the "Obama girl" singing the praises of The One in a popular song.  I doubt if we'll see "the Romney girl."  The Romney accountant maybe, but not the Romney girl.

So, can Romney defeat Obama?  He is not the "scary" candidate the Democrats hoped for, and, just as he doesn't elicit much love, he doesn't draw much hate either.  He is in fact the only Republican candidate who leads Obama in several polls, but only by several points.  I would say, based on what I've seen, that he has an uphill battle for these reasons:

1) He's run for president for years, and still hasn't built a head of steam.  People know him, and we hear one hand clapping.

2) Despite his weakness, Obama still has passionate core supporters, if only for ethnic reasons.  And his support is in areas where political machines know how to get people to the polls.

3) Much of the media will work for Obama, as it did in 2008.

4) There will be a reluctance, and it will be plainly stated, to turn out the nation's first black president.  Watch how this issue is played.

5) If street demonstrations against "Wall Street" grow, and we expect them to, many voters may fear defeating Obama, believing violence against a conservative president is much more likely than against Obama. 

Obviously, conditions can change.  Right now, Romney faces a greater struggle than would a GOP candidate who electrifies his party.

October 6, 2011     Permalink