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SEPTEMBER 2, 2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

WITH 2012 IN MIND – President Obama stunned his environmental appointees by overruling a new EPA plan to improve air quality, and cheering business leaders who had campaigned against it.  Clearly, the president had the election in mind.  He does not wish to expose himself to the charge of costing business additional millions, or billions, at a time when funds should be devoted to hiring people.  There are no reports on Al Gore's reaction, but there was a report of a man fitting Gore's description, standing atop the Grand Canyon with a thermometer, and threatening to jump.

BUT WE CAN'T WAIT – It may be a way of lowering expectations, but administration officials are passing the word that President Obama will not present his entire jobs plan before a joint session of Congress next week.  White House officials say that the overall plan will be rolled out during the fall.  I guess this is like reality television.  Why do I think they really don't have a plan?  Could it possibly be that they haven't had one for two and a half years?  At least the president gives us something to look forward to, characteristic of the showman that he is. 

JOBS REPORT STIRS NEW FEARS – The stunning jobs report just out, indicating that this country created no new jobs last month, is producing the most serious talk of a new recession – a "double dip" recession – in many months.  The country must create at least 150,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth.  We now face the possibility of a real retrenchment that can go on for years.  Should the president's speech fail next week, and expectations aren't all that high, the psychological effect can add to the devastation.  But Republicans must respond with a clear, understandable economic plan of their own.  "No new taxes" is not a plan.  It's a slogan.  Americans are looking seriously for leadership, and I don't really see the GOP providing it...yet.

September 2, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 10:49 A.M. ET:  In one of the best columns I've ever read about Barack Obama, scholar Shelby Steele nails the president and what's wrong with him.  What's wrong with him, in brief, is that he doesn't accept the very premise of the United States of America:

Anti-exceptionalism has clearly shaped his "leading from behind" profile abroad—an offer of self-effacement to offset the presumed American evil of swaggering cowboyism. Once in office his "hope and change" campaign slogan came to look like the "hope" of overcoming American exceptionalism and "change" away from it.

So, in Mr. Obama, America gained a president with ambivalence, if not some antipathy, toward the singular greatness of the nation he had been elected to lead.

But then again, the American people did elect him. Clearly Americans were looking for a new kind of exceptionalism in him (a black president would show America to have achieved near perfect social mobility). But were they also looking for—in Mr. Obama—an assault on America's bedrock exceptionalism of military, economic and cultural pre-eminence?

American exceptionalism is, among other things, the result of a difficult rigor: the use of individual initiative as the engine of development within a society that strives to ensure individual freedom through the rule of law. Over time a society like this will become great. This is how—despite all our flagrant shortcomings and self-betrayals—America evolved into an exceptional nation.

COMMENT:  Wonderfully stated.  And I think that critique defines, not only Obama, but the people around him, and the people in the press and the universities who support him.  They really don't much like their country.  When they speak of "change" they're speaking about things so basic that they go to the core values of this country.

And anyone who tries to question them is called anti-intellectual, a warmonger, a racist, or a McCarthyite.  Welcome to the world of intelligent discussion. 

September 2, 2011       Permalink 

GOP INSIDERS PREFER ROMNEY – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  We're talking about "conventional wisdom" here.  And we should be quick to point out that "conventional wisdom" within the GOP in 1980 said that Reagan could never be elected.  So, take this with a grain of salt, or a more politically correct seasoning.  From The National Journal:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry may be surging in polls of Republican primary voters, but his party's Insiders aren't convinced he'd be the best general election candidate. More than two-thirds of Republican Insiders say Mitt Romney has a better chance than Perry of defeating President Obama in 2012, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Many Republican Insiders acknowledged Perry's appeal to conservatives but questioned his ability to win over independent voters. "Perry can fire up the base, but this election will be won in the middle, not on the fringes," said one. Said another, "Having trouble ID-ing a single independent who'd vote for Perry."

Democratic Insiders echoed that assessment by an even larger majority. "This election is sitting on a platter for Republicans if they do it right," said one. "Romney is probably good enough. Perry will get drilled by independent voters and women." Another quipped, "Rick Perry is all base and no swing."

Insiders in both parties raised questions about Perry's durability under the intense scrutiny of a presidential campaign. "As a conservative Republican, I love Rick Perry," said one Republican Insider, who added "but as a campaign strategist, I know the degree to which a few self-reinforcing oppo-hits can devastate a candidate." A Democratic Insider said plainly, "Perry's mouth will do him in."

COMMENT:  I have to say that I share those concerns.  Perry has a long paper trail, and part of it is made up of quotes that can be devastating to independents, like his claim that Social Security is unconstitutional.  He is one of the easiest candidates to run against, at least on paper, than anyone I've ever seen in the presidential sweepstakes.

On the other hand...Perry is known as a shrewd, effective campaigner, someone who's never lost an election.  Reagan was able to overcome his image as a far-out right-wing guy buy effectively marketing himself.   Of course, Reagan was already a national figure by the time he got the Republican 1980 nomination. 

Can Perry do a Reagan?  There are three debates this month.  I suspect we're going to find out.

September 2, 2011        Permalink

ON THIS DAY – AT 8:59 A.M. ET:  On September 2, 1945, aboard the battleship Missouri in Tokyo Bay, Japan formally surrendered to the Allied powers, thus ending World War II. 

All of us have seen the famous footage of Douglas MacArthur ordering the Japanese emissaries to sign "at the places indicated."

How optimistic we were then.  Victory was complete.  The Depression was over, although we'd go into a recession right after the war as defense production was cut back.  But we had emerged as the superpower, victorious in war, and the only nation that could build and deliver an atomic bomb.  It is now 66 years later.  We are still a great superpower, but struggling.  Years of mismanagement, bloated government, crony capitalism, and the unrelenting haranguing by the political left have made us doubt ourselves and crippled our once-thriving economy.

We even fight our wars with one hand tied behind our back, and with a spirit, not of victory, but of apology.  The left has certainly done a number on this country.

We are in desperate need of new leadership.  We have a chance next year.  The question is whether we, on our side, are up to the fight.  And we must ask whether our institutions are up to that fight.  There was a time when we would say that we could take four years of a bad administration because the damage could be repaired.  I'm not so sure any longer.  A lazy, biased press, combined with an equally lazy, and equally biased, educational system represent a one-two punch that can make real progress impossible.

In 1945 we were a nation that produced things.  We built our ships, planes, tanks, and vehicles.  "Made in the USA" was stamped on almost every product.  Compare please to today.  "Made in China" is probably the phrase we see more often than any other every day. 

Japan and Germany, lying in rubble in 1945, are now modern, vigorous nations.  Some of our allies, like France and Britain, lag behind, Britain having sold off even some of its most famous names, like Rolls-Royce and Jaguar, to foreign buyers. 

In 1945 we had Harry Truman as president, and had just lost FDR.  Whether one likes some of their policies or not, they were both committed to victory, and unashamedly so.  Compare please to Barack Obama.

Victory in 1945 came after three years and nine months of struggle.  We entered World War II with a feeling of desperation, but we prevailed.  And today?  Are you confident?

September 2, 2011       Permalink

BARACK, REVISE YOUR SPEECH – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  The president speaks to the nation next week about jobs and the economy, undoubtedly reflecting the wisdom on these subjects that he absorbed at Martha's Vineyard.   Meanwhile, back at the ranch, things aren't cooking so well.  From Bloomberg:

Employment in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August and the jobless rate held at 9.1 percent as American employers became less confident in the strength of the recovery.

Payrolls were unchanged last month, the weakest reading since September 2010, after an 85,000 gain in July that was less than initially estimated, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise of 65,000. Hourly earnings and hours worked both declined. The August data included a 48,000 drop in information industry jobs, mostly reflecting striking Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) workers.

The first U.S. credit downgrade, political squabbling over the budget and mounting fear of a default in Europe caused the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to plummet 17 percent from July 22 to Aug. 8, prompting companies and consumers to cut back. The lack of hiring is one reason Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the central bank still has tools available to stimulate growth.

COMMENT:  We don't have a parliamentary system in America.  If we did, Obama would surely lose a "no confidence" vote in the House, and would come close in the Senate.  Does anyone have confidence that this administration can turn it around? 

What employers and others see is a lack of urgency, underlined by the president's delay in giving his much-advertised speech until getting in the full value of a Vineyard vacation.  They don't see an engaged or experienced president.

And yet, this man may well be reelected.  If he is, he will be able to do what he wants for four years, since he'd have no political reason to show restraint.  (He'd be ineligible to run again.)   Does that send a chill up your spine?  It should.

September 2, 2011     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 1,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MAPS ARE AVAILABLE – Esteemed Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis, who doesn't make the papers too often, has proudly announced that she has purchased a new car – a Chevrolet Equinox.  And, in a tribute to the American workers she presumably fights for, she expressed her pride that it's made in the USA.  Uh...well...not quite.  Seems the Equinox is actually made in Canada.  And, of course, it was recently revealed that President Obama's new campaign bus was partly made in Canada as well.  Now, we love Canada, one of our closest friends.  But you'd think both the White House and the secretary of labor would do a little checkin' before they do a little buyin'.  Online geography courses are available, for credit.

THREAT FROM CASTROVILLE – A respected Italian newspaper is reporting that Hezbollah, a recognized terrorist organization controlled by Iran, now has bases in Castro's Cuba.  The cells are in contact with other Hezbollah operatives in Latin America, especially in Venezuela.  It is believed they are planning attacks in this hemisphere, and that would have to include attacks in the United States, possibly across our southern border.

WANTED – A California college professor is wanted on suspicion of leading a motorcycle gang and distributing meth to drug dealers.  Steve Kinzey teaches physical education at California State University.  Kinzey's live-in girlfriend and six others were arrested on drug-related charges.  I think it is disgraceful that a teacher of physical education should ride motorcycles when he can be jogging or walking briskly.  What have we come to as a nation? 

PERRY LEADS IN NEW FOX POLL – He leads Romney 26% to 18%.  But there are clouds.  That isn't a particularly big lead, and important chunks of the electorate are starting to view Perry as "too extreme."  He's being "Reaganized" by the press, which attempted to portray Mr. Reagan as an uneducated bomb thrower in 1980.  Reagan fought back, and the image of reasonableness and good humor that he projected defeated the smear artists.  Perry now enters a hazardous period, with three major debates in September, starting with one at the Reagan Library next week.  He must do what Reagan did, or risk being sent to the margins very quickly.  He's a smart guy, and a good campaigner, and I think he can do it...if he wants to.

September 1, 2011       Permalink

MAN OF THE WEST – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  Representative Alan West of Florida is emerging as one of the most spirited conservatives in the new House class.  A retired Army lieutenant colonel, he is a Republican African-American.  As such, he's regarded as something of a suspicious character by much of the Washington press corps.  This year's Clarence Thomas.

West will not be silenced or sidetracked.  He is a favorite of the Tea Party, and now, in response to vicious attacks on that group by several of his African-American colleagues, he's sprung into action, as The Daily Caller reports:

In response to recent comments made by Indiana Democratic Rep. Andre Carson and California Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters that denigrate the tea party movement, Florida Republican Rep. Allen West — a member of both the Congressional Black Caucus and the Tea Party Caucus — sent a letter to CBC Chairman Emanuel Cleaver Wednesday requesting that the body condemn such remarks.

“As Chairman of the CBC, I believe it is incumbent on you to both condemn these types of hate-filled comments, and to disassociate the Congressional Black Caucus from these types of remarks. Otherwise, I will have to seriously reconsider my membership within the organization,” West wrote.

The freshman congressman declared, “It is unconscionable when a fellow CBC Member, Congressman Andre Carson, comes to South Florida and claims that some in the Tea Party would love to see black Americans ‘hanging on a tree.’ It is appalling to hear another CBC colleague, Congresswoman Maxine Waters, say ‘The Tea Party can go straight to hell.’”

West added that Carson’s comments, which caricature the tea party movement as a group of racists, are “baseless” and “desperate.” West reiterated that the movement is focused on fiscal responsibility and American exceptionalism and wrote that the the CBC should be working to end the “balkanisation” of America.

COMMENT:   Here is a guy with political guts.  The CBC would undoubtedly be glad to see him go, as he doesn't toe the liberal-leftist line.  I hope he has the satisfaction of resigning before they kick him out. 

I also hope he has the satisfaction of seeing his star rise.  He could do wonders, convincing African-Americans that their loyalty to the Democratic Party has resulted in almost nothing.  They are the most loyal group within the party.  If that loyalty can be shaken, the Dems would apply as a group for early political retirement.

September 1, 2011        Permalink

DELIGHTFUL AND DELOVELY – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  Many readers ask why I don't write more about the performing arts, where I spent some of my career.  I pledge that I will, then I don't, but I'll pledge again.

That having been said, you must check out the short, fluffy and endearing interview of Doris Day in London's Telegraph.  The interviewer:  Sir Paul McCartney.  Now here are two real legends talking to each other.  The occasion is the release, at age 87, of Doris Day's first album of new material in 17 years.  Doris is one of the top, best-selling recording artists of all time. 

Those of us of a certain age remember Doris Day as the quintessential "girl next door" of American movies of the 1950s.  It had not, however, always been that way.  She shot to fame in 1945 with "Sentimental Journey," a favorite of GIs coming home from World War II.  And she became, with her sultry voice, a terrific torch singer.  But when she went to Hollywood her peachy-cream looks spelled "wholesome" to the casting people, and Doris Day was transformed.  This led Oscar Levant, one of the leading wits of the time, to remark, "I knew Doris Day before she was a virgin."

Her rendition of "Que Sera, Sera," in Alfred Hitchcock's "The Man Who Knew Too Much," became a screen classic, and mothers around the nation started singing it to their children as a goodnight song.

Doris Day's interview with Sir Paul marks her reemergence after many years of guarded privacy.  Sir Paul went to her home in Carmel, California to conduct it.  I'm sure he doesn't give that treatment to too many people.

September 1, 2011       Permalink

GRIMNESS, INC. – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  President Obama speaks to the nation next week about the economy.  He won't have any great numbers to hold up.  The news continues grim.  Now even manufacturing, which had been a bit of a bright spot, is starting to show tarnish.  From Bloomberg:

U.S. manufacturing probably shrank in August for the first time in two years, raising the risk the slowing recovery may lose one of its biggest sources of strength, economists said before a report today.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 48.5 last month from 50.9 in July, according to the median estimate of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50, a level that the gauge last fell below in July 2009.

Slower global growth, volatile financial markets and the debate over government budgets around the world have clouded the outlooks of corporations and consumers. Manufacturers like La-Z- Boy Inc. and Toro Co. (TTC) are gauging the strength of demand as unemployment holds above 9 percent and companies delay expansion plans.

 “Manufacturers have taken a step back and are in kind of a wait-and-see mode right now,” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “Before they rush ahead or proceed with longer-range projects, they want to get a clearer assessment of where they and the rest of the world think the economy is headed.”

The jobless report has just been issued, indicating 409,000 jobless claims last week.  Any number above 400,000 is considered very bad.

The combination of factors do not point to a strong 2012, which President Obama would need to ward off the moving vans.  But, then, the Republicans can mess things up.  They practice all the time.

September 1, 2011       Permalink

CLOSE IN NEW YORK CITY– AT 8:02 A.M. ET:  One of the great political myths is that all New Yorkers are ultra-liberals who pine for George McGovern and even have kind things to say about Lenin.

Not quite true.  New York City is predominantly liberal, but can swing wildly if the situation calls for it.  In fact, New York City hasn't elected a Democratic mayor in 22 years.  Even New Yorkers wised up.

And so I'm not entirely astonished by what's happening in Anthony Weiner's old congressional district.  You remember Weiner, don't you?  He had to resign from Congress recently after suggestive pictures of him appeared on the internet.  He apparently had dreams of being a Playboy centerfold, but couldn't get the gender right.

A special election is about to be held in Weiner's district.  Weiner used to win in a walk.  But this race has become competitive, with the possiblity – just the possibility – of a Republican upset.  The reason?  Barack Obama, who has become unpopular with many New Yorkers.  And they're letting him know it...at the ballot box.   From RealClearPolitics:

“This is not the Upper East Side of Manhattan; this is a conservative, working-class district, and it means something different to be a Democrat,” says Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, who found that 42 percent of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of the president. “If you hold the president up as a straw man, if he represents complete allegiance to the Democratic Party and rejection of current Republican critique, it’s not solid in this district; it’s by no means, right now, a rubber stamp district for the Democrats.”

Noted New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf: “It’s not an Obama Democrat district, it’s a Harry Truman Democrat district, which means people can do almost anything given an opportunity of alternatives.” Recognizing that opportunity, national Republicans have poured money into this race.

COMMENT:  Those are key words:  "A Harry Truman district."  These are Democrats who believe in national defense, didn't think the North Vietnamese were great guys, and know who attacked us on 9-11.  They are somewhat liberal domestically, but are getting tired of schools that don't teach and social programs that don't produce. 

These are the Democrats the Democratic Party abandoned in the late 60s and early 70s.  Indeed, the predominant voices in the party have contempt for them.  Many became Reagan Democrats in 1980.

Can a Republican win?  The Republican candidate, Bob Turner, is, according to a recent poll, within six points of the anointed Dem candidate, David Weprin.  The odds still favor Weprin, but strange things are happening.

The election is September 13th.  Stand by.

September 1, 2011     Permalink