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SEPTEMBER 29,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:09 P.M. ET:

OBAMA IN POLL DUMPS – President Obama's approval rating is back in the 30s, according to Gallup.  A rolling poll taken over three days has the president at 39% approve, 51% disapprove.  We should point out, though, that the president's weak approval rating doesn't necessarily translate into good news for Republicans.  The president still beats almost every named Republican candidate in post poll matchups.  The Republicans are still looking for the specific individual who can defeat the president, however unpopular he may be, next November.

PALIN DELAYS AGAIN – Yawn.  Sarah Palin now says she won't be announcing her decision on whether to run for president in the next few days, as many had expected.  She said during the summer that a decision should be made by the end of September, which is tomorrow.  Now that's been pushed back.  Very frankly, I'm not so sure many people care at this point.  I've always liked Sarah, but she's declined continuously in Republican and national polls, and her "decision process" has become a big bore.  If you have to delay that much, how serious are you about the job?  We're talking about the American presidency, not an episode of Celebrity Apprentice.  If Palin hadn't resigned as governor of Alaska, she'd be in a far stronger position today, a serious officeholder rather than a personality.

MAJOR CULTURAL NEWS – A northern California (natch) teacher has banned "bless you," said after someone sneezes, from his classroom, saying it's disruptive and an outdated practice.  He's even tried to lower students' grades if they say it.  Parents have complained and the teacher says he won't actually lower grades, but will find another way to punish students who say "bless you."  The fact that this goofball remains a teacher tells us something about educational practice in some areas these days.   

CRONY CAPITALISM – The recently fired CEO of Hewlett-Packard is walking away with a golden parachute of $13-million, even though the market value of the company plunged by $40-billion in 11 months.  At a time of economic stress for tens of millions of Americans, this is bound to create outrage, and to be seen as another example of "crony capitalism," deals made at a certain level of American business that require excessive payments to executives, even failed executives, while those below can barely make ends meet.   This is the kind of behavior that creates enormous, understandable anger, and erodes support for the free enterprise system.  Crony capitalism is a curse that can eventually lead to backlash and severe regulation. 

September 29, 2011     Permalink

OH, SUCH GREAT NEWS – AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  The reality is that very few revolutions go well.  Libya's is in doubt.  What else is new in the Mideast?  From the Jerusalem Post:

TRIPOLI, Libya -- The corridors of Tripoli’s five-star hotels are filled with suave rebel leaders in smart suits giving interview to the foreign media and meeting with foreign dignitaries. But at the checkpoints around the country and at the mopping up operations against the last Gaddafi strongholds, it’s Islamists who are in command.

During the six-month civil war, Islamists were on the frontlines in the eastern Libyan town of Benghazi and in the western mountains, leading inexperienced youth in bloody battles that resulted, with the help of NATO, to oust Gaddafi. Along the way, they have earned the respect among their fellow rebels for their passion, discipline and courage.

Yeah, those Nazi divisions were pretty good also.

Now, as the National Transitional Council (NTC) begins the work of forming a government, the Islamists are looking to play just as big a role – if not bigger – in post-Gaddafi Libya. The NTC began three days of talks on Sunday in the capital of Tripoli about the shape of a cabinet that will include a premier, a vice premier and 22 ministers.

Just what we need in the Mideast – guys who probably think Iran is the livin' end.

A battle is raging between officials from the NTC, backed by their tribal and militia allies, and Islamist leaders, who are determined not to let what they regard as their revolution be hijacked by Western-backed groups. The outsized presence of the Islamists in the field gives them a strong hand in the negotiations.

Looks like Obama has done it again.

Gaddafi was known for his iron fist policy towards Islamists, outlawing their organizations and executing many of their followers. At the start of the revolution, the Libyan dictator warned that if he were ousted, Libya risked becoming a base for operatives of al-Qaida to launch attacks on Europe from the Mediterranean shores.

Western officials ignored his warnings, but since his fall from power they have raised the alarm of possible anarchy that could lead to the country fall under control of Islamist groups, mainly al-Qaida. In the neighboring countries of Egypt and Tunisia, both of whose leaders were ousted this year, Islamist groups proved to be the most organized and ready to take over.

COMMENT:   Didn't Obama promise us change we could believe in?  Do you believe in what's happening in Libya?  No, I didn't think so.

September 29, 2011       Permalink

OBAMACARE HEADING FOR THE O.K. CORRAL – AT 9:19 A.M. ET:  It looks like we may find out if Obamacare lives or dies – at least legally – right in the middle of the presidential campaign.  It is heading for the Supreme Court.  From WaPo:

The Obama administration moved aggressively Wednesday for Supreme Court review of the 2010 health-care act, making it likely a constitutional ruling on the president’s signature and most controversial domestic achievement will come in the thick of the presidential campaign.

The administration said it was confident the act would be upheld as a valid exercise of federal power, just as Social Security and the Civil Rights Act were. If the court agrees to hear the case in the term that begins Monday, it would almost certainly render its decision by the end of deliberations in June.

The administration called upon the justices to review the decision of a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in Atlanta, which is the only appeals court to say Congress exceeded its power in passing the law. The law requires almost every American to have health insurance.

“Throughout history, there have been similar challenges to other landmark legislation such as the Social Security Act, the Civil Rights Act, and the Voting Rights Act, and all of those challenges failed,” the Justice Department said in a statement. “We believe the challenges to the Affordable Care Act — like the one in the 11th Circuit — will also ultimately fail and that the Supreme Court will uphold the law.”

That's absolutely appalling, and sheer demagoguery.  Comparing Obamacare to the Voting Rights Act is an attempt to scare people into thinking the opponents of Obamacare are trying to roll back civil rights.  "Scare" is the name of the game for the Democrats in 2012. 

The law, enacted when Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress, has roiled national politics and prompted calls for repeal from the Republican presidential candidates running to replace Obama.

The political consequences of whether it is better or worse for Obama’s reelection chances to have the case decided before the election have been debated with little consensus. But the administration put aside options that could have created a delay, and its petition Wednesday ensures a quicker decision by the court.

COMMENT:  The White House must be awfully confident of the outcome in the high court.  I'm not so sure.  The key decided, if the Court takes the case this term, will be Anthony Kennedy.  The four conservatives – Scalia, Alito, Thomas, and Chief Justice Roberts, will almost certainly oppose Obamacare.  The four liberals – Ginsberg, Satomayor, Kagan and Breyer, will almost certainly uphold it.  Anthony Kennedy is the swing vote.

I don't think that, even if the Court upholds the program, it will become any more popular.  Indeed, there are already indications that Obamacare will cost more than it will save, and will not really improve the health-care system.

I hope the Court rules against, in part because that would require Congress to start over, at least with part of the legislation, with more Republicans present than there were when the original law was passed.

September 29, 2011       Permalink

NOW RUDY? – AT 9:02 A.M. ET:  I'm a big fan of Rudy Giuliani, one of the best mayors New York City ever had.  (Problem is, no mayor of New York ever rose higher.)  I'm not such a fan of Rudy's presidential aspirations.  He handled his 2008 campaign horribly, and now we're told he's seriously considering jumping in again, with an eye on New Hampshire. 

CONCORD, N.H. — Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid.

One of the mayor's closest political advisers, Jake Menges, hosted private meetings with a host of key Republicans in the state, including Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, likely gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith, Congressman Charlie Bass and GOP activist Stephen Talarico, owner of Manchester Harley-Davidson.

"Jake said to me, 'Just keep your powder dry for another few weeks,'" Talarico told The Associated Press.

Giuliani has visited the first-in-the-nation primary state four times already this year and advisers have maintained regular contact with potential staffers in the event he decides to seek the presidency. During his last trip in July, Giuliani said he wasn't convinced any of the candidates were strong enough to defeat President Barack Obama. Until he is, he said he wouldn't rule out a run of his own.

"These are a lot of qualified people," he said at the time. "Do they have a good chance of winning? I don't know the answer to that."

Giuliani was hesitant to pursue any political activity near the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but seems to sense an opportunity given the continued dissatisfaction among Republican voters with the current slate of candidates.

COMMENT:  I just can't see this working.  Rudy's glory days ended ten years ago.  He hasn't, in the years since, done anything or suggested anything, that he can point to as a qualification.  He didn't fare well in the 2008 primaries, even in Florida, which has huge numbers of transplanted New Yorkers.  Had he run for governor of New York in the last ten years, and won, he'd be in a very different position today.  It is true that neither Nixon nor Reagan held office when they were elected to the presidency, but Nixon had been vice president, and a presidential nominee, and Reagan had been governor of our largest state.

As much as I admire him, I don't see Rudy making much of a difference.  Time has marched on.

September 29, 2011        Permalink

HERE WE GO AGAIN – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  Would you believe that, two days after Chris Christie made it clear (in my view) that he isn't running for president, it's reported that he's seriously reconsidering.  This comes from the New York Post, part of News Corporation, which also owns Fox News.   Fox, which has been reporting that Christie definitely won't run, is considered close to Christie.  I don't know about the Post.  So we report this simply as a news story:

After months of hedging, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is giving serious thought to jumping into the ring for a GOP presidential run -- and could make his decision next week, The Post has learned.

The announcement may come as soon as Monday, said sources familiar with Christie’s thinking.

The renewed consideration about a White House run came after prodding this week from some Republicans he idolizes, including former First Lady Nancy Reagan, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and former President George W. Bush, sources said.

“It’s more than just flattering,” a source close to Christie said, adding they helped convince Christie that he not only could win, but that he has what it takes to be president.

Only the pugnacious, popular Christie could pull off such a complete 180 from his blustering denial of interest less than a year ago.

“Short of suicide, I don’t really know what I’d have to do to convince you people that I’m not running. I’m not running!” Christie thundered on Nov. 4, 2010.

Christie pals said the pol’s “mind-blowing” experience at the Reagan library in California Tuesday changed his thinking.

“We need you. Your country needs you to run for president,” one woman pleaded after Christie’s moving speech there.

Yet when the governor first arrived at the Reagan library, he was still telling his inner circle he was a definite “no” for a presidential run -- and planned to make that clear in his appearance.

Something changed that night, sources said.

COMMENT:  Well, that's a good story.  Now we'll wait to see if anything happens.  One of the things they teach you in screenwriting class is to avoid "quick conversions," where characters suddenly change overnight.  Of course, an election campaign isn't a movie.

Or is it?

September 29, 2011     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 28,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:21 P.M. ET:

TERROR PLOT FOILED – A 26-year-old Massachusetts man has been arrested and charged with planning to attack the Capitol and the Pentagon with model planes loaded with explosives.  Rezwan Ferdaus is accused of plotting the attacks because he considered the United States to be an enemy of Allah.  He also allegedly supplied mobile phones to FBI agents he thought were recruiters for Al Qaeda.

IRAN IN LIBYA – London's Telegraph reports that Iran has stolen advanced weaponry from Libya during the chaos surrounding this year's Libyan revolt.  Included in the haul are dozens of sophisticated, shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles.  Intelligence officials fear the missiles will be given to terrorist groups and used against civilian airliners.  Of particular concern is the belief that the weapons were stolen by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, who have the training to use these missiles or teach others to use them.

TEA IN WASHINGTON? – A new survey shows surprising support for the Tea Party in the Washington, D.C. area, home of big government.  The Tea Party has the support of one in five area residents and nearly half the Republicans.  Support is strongest in Virginia, where 23% of respondents said they support the Tea Party, compared with 19% in heavily Democratic Maryland and 10% in fanatically Democratic Washington, D.C.  The president may be shocked to learn he has Tea Party supporters living within blocks of him. 

PERRY PUNCHED – Rick Perry, who has stumbled in debates after briefly leading the Republican field, is being hit from all sides within his own party.  The most serious blow – Herman Cain, who is showing increasing strength in polls, said bluntly that he could not support Perry for president because of what Cain considers Perry's lax stand on border security.  Border security and immigration policy are emerging as serious problems for Perry, who takes moderate stands on both, in a party that is increasingly conservative.

September 28, 2011       Permalink

FOX POLL STUNNER – AT 9:05 P.M. ET:  According to the latest Fox News poll, just out, there is movement in the Republican race:

Three September debates have shaken-up the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Herman Cain has jumped into the top tier. Rick Perry’s stumbled. Mitt Romney's holding steady.

And Michele Bachmann is hitting bottom. That’s according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday.
The new poll found Cain’s support has nearly tripled among GOP primary voters to 17 percent.

That’s up from 6 percent before this month’s debates, and puts him in what is essentially a three-way tie with Perry and Romney.

Cain has benefited not only from his debate performances, but also significant media attention after winning the Florida Republican Party’s straw poll on Saturday.

Perry now garners 19 percent, a drop of 10 percentage points from a month ago. That puts Romney back in the top spot with the support of 23 percent. Last month Romney was at 22 percent.

Newt Gingrich recovered some ground and now stands at 11 percent. Ron Paul receives the backing of 6 percent now compared to 8 percent before the September debates.

Bachmann registers 3 percent support, down from 8 percent in late August and a high of 15 percent in July.

COMMENT:  Of course, Cain can be dismissed as the flavor of the week.  However, his rise is due to people actually getting to know him through the debates, where he's made a strong impression.  Perry's rise to the top, as soon as he announced, was due more to image.  But his image has suffered in the debates.

It's pretty clear that Bachmann is fading away, the victim of Perry's drawing her supporters and her own tendency to sound strident at times.

Perry's drop, if it is confirmed by other polls, is more than significant.  It could be next to fatal.  Dial the political 911. 

But, alas, this is one poll.  No need to write obits or crown winners just yet.  There are many more polls to come.

September 28, 2011      Permalink

THIS IS A HOOT – MUST READ – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  I hate to see friends fight, don't you?  And so it's with a sense of heartbreak that I report a serious feud between two warm allies – Al Qaeda and the government of Iran.  You know, as Rodney King said, "Can't we all just get along?"  From the Jerusalem Post: 

Following repeated claims by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the 9/11 attacks were part of a United States government conspiracy, al-Qaida (or rather al-Qaida-affiliated propagandists) has sent the Iranian president a poorly-edited Jihadi equivalent of a cease and desist letter.

In the most recent edition of the al-Qaida affiliated English-language magazine, Inspire, dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, a prominent "opinion piece" derides Ahmadinejad for perpetuating conspiracy theories about the attacks.

The author, writing under the name Abu Suhail, accuses the Islamic Republic of harboring a festering jealousy over its own inability to damage the United States as al-Qaida did ten years ago.

"For them, al-Qaida was a competitor for the hearts and minds of the disenfranchised Muslims around the world," Abu Suhail continued condescendingly, "al-Qaida, an organization under fire, with no state, succeeded in what Iran couldn’t."

Therefore, the Iranians feel compelled to "to discredit 9/11, and what better way to do so? Conspiracy theories."

And...

Although it was not clear whether the piece was published in response to any particular statement by the Iranian president, Ahmadinejad last accused the United States of being behind or at least complicit in the 9/11 attacks while speaking at the UN General Assembly last week.

He also claimed to have been threatened by the United States for proposing an investigation into the "hidden elements involved in [the] September 11 incident." One such element, he said, was "the safe space provided for the invading aircraft to attack the twin World Trade towers."

COMMENT:  You know, it's just like Hollywood.  Greed.  Competition.  Grabbing credit.  Hey, I know these guys.  Any one of them could be William Morris agents.

I propose that they settle this dispute by setting up the Islamist Academy for Big-bang Arts and Sciences, and give a coveted award to the best terrorists each year.  You know, a little statue.  They could call it The Mullah – given for Best Terrorist, Best Terrorist in a Supporting Role, Best Terror Operation, Best Original Jihadist Script, Best Jihadist Script Stolen from Someone Else.   They could also give the Osama bin Laden lifetime achievement award, and the Barack Obama He Can't Be This Naive award.

They wouldn't have envelopes.  They'd just blow open a safe to get the names of the winners.

I'd watch that show, wouldn't you?  Just to see Joan Rivers review the suicide belts on the red carpet....

September 28, 2011       Permalink

TAKE THAT, EUROPE! – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  There is whining, anger and emotional distress in Europe these days over some biting criticism directed across the pond by President Obama, who lectured Europe earlier this week on its debt crisis, charging that the Euros are moving much too slowly.

The Europeans, having loved Obama to death in the past, are shocked, shocked, that he would express any criticism.  Their agony is evident, and so is their bad taste in replying.  From Spiegel online:

US President Obama has given the Europeans a harsh lecture on the dangers of their ongoing debt crisis. Offended by the unsolicited advice, Europeans have suggested the US get its own house in order first. Obama's remarks were "arrogant" and "absurd," German commentators say on Wednesday.

Yeah, right.  Arrogance and absurdity are unknown in the German tradition.  Look, I'm no fan of Obama's, as all readers know, but I'm frankly glad he made his remarks.  Now maybe the spoiled, adolescent-level European elites know what it's like to be hectored, as President Bush was hectored repeatedly by the condescending snobs whom we've been defending for generations.

Europeans are well aware of the seriousness of their ongoing debt crisis. But they don't, it seems, like to receive lectures from other countries -- especially the United States, which is struggling to deal with its own mountain of debt.

On Tuesday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble curtly rejected recent American criticism of Europe's approach to solving its debt crisis. "I don't think Europe's problems are America's only problems," said Schäuble, who has become increasingly sharp-tongued as the euro crisis deepens. "It's always easier to give other people advice."

Yeah, it sure is, Herr Finance Minister.  So maybe Europeans in the future will be a little less critical of the United States.  You still depend on our success, big guy.

Schäuble was referring to strongly worded comments made by US President Barack Obama and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in recent days. At an event in California on Monday, Obama warned Europeans that their inaction was "scaring the world." The Europeans, he said, "have not fully healed from the crisis back in 2007 and never fully dealt with all the challenges that their banking system faced. It's now being compounded by what's happening in Greece." He continued: "They're going through a financial crisis that is scaring the world, and they're trying to take responsible actions, but those actions haven't been quite as quick as they need to be."

COMMENTS:  Are you as bored by the politics of Western Europe as I am?  This is the modern gang that can't shoot straight, that considers itself quite superior to we American peasants, and gets little right other than running some really neat museums and eateries.  Thousands of American men are buried in Europe because of European blunders.  I wish they'd remember that, if only occasionally.

September 28, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  By the great Dorothy Rabinowitz of The Wall Street Journal, one of the best investigative reporters and analysts in the country, on the remarkable rise of Herman Cain in the GOP sweepstakes in the last week.  Cain, a successful African-American business executive, won the Florida straw poll over the weekend:

An early response to the Florida poll results came from a friend, historian Alan C. Kors, who observed in mock puzzlement: "So, the 'Tea Party racists' in a Republican straw poll chose the self-made black Herman Cain -- mathematician and successful businessman -- son of a cleaning woman and a janitor, as their choice of nominee for the presidency of the United States. Well! What a bigoted group, what a caste society!"

It's an observation whose point wouldn't be lost on Herman Cain.

COMMENT:  One of the key devices the Obamans will use in the upcoming election campaign will be to paint the opposition as sinister, racist, homophobic, bigoted – you know the whole list and can probably recite it by heart.  It is, of course, a lie, but that lie resonates in some communities and advances the careers of some real mediocrities. 

Cain seems to be gaining in the polls.  He may just be the flavor of the week.  On the other hand, his debate performances have improved, he's being noticed, and...you never know.  If not at the top of the ticket, he could be an attractive vice presidential candidate, a man from a challenging background who made it, based on his own abilities and hard work.  True, he never lived in Indonesia, hung out with radicals in Chicago, and doesn't have an exotic name like Barack.  But he'll do just fine.

September 28, 2011      Permalink

WAIT, WAIT, I HEARD IT MYSELF – AT 8:25 A.M. ET:  Something really weird is happening in American politics this morning.

I heard Chris Christie's speech at the Reagan Library last night live.  There was a Q&A afterward.  He was asked whether he would run for president.  He clearly referred the questioner to a Politico post that quoted all his past comments to the effect that he would not, and said, also clearly, that they told the story.

That story is that he's not going to run.

The commentators at Fox News all agreed that he'd said it, and there was no doubt.  But this morning The New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Hill are saying "not so fast."  They're claiming he left the door open.  But, hey, I heard it.  He left no door open.  From The Hill:

Following a week of ever-escalating speculation that upstaged those in the Republican presidential field, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) nimbly sidestepped directly answering whether he would run for president in 2012 – instead referring to prior statements where he has previously denied any intention to run.

“I’m not going to bore you with it now, those are the answers,” Christie said.

Now, I could be wrong.  Maybe I didn't learn the same English that the august reporters of The Hill, the Post and the Times did.  But when Christie says, "Those are the answers," I don't see an open door or an unlocked door.  Neither did the Fox commentators.

We'll see.  Maybe Christie will be visited by the ghost of election days past and suddenly announce that he's heard the call.  If he does, fine.  But I think the parsing of his remarks at the Reagan Library is a bit silly.

September 28, 2011     Permalink