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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas last night.  It's here.

APRIL 9,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:53 P.M. ET:

FAILED ROAD TEST – The good news for the greenies:  The number of models of fuel-efficient "hybrid" cars available in the U.S. is growing.  The bad news for the greenies:  More hybrid buyers than not are deciding against hybrids when they buy their next car.  Only 35% of hybrid owners choose a hybrid when they return to the market.  With Prius buyers, the number is under 25%.  Obviously, hybrid technology isn't delivering in ways that buyers thought it would; meanwhile, conventionally powered vehicles have become better and more efficient.

MASSACHUSETTS BATTLE – The Senate contest in Massachusetts between ultra-lib Elizabeth Warren and Republican incumbent Scott Brown is turning into a money fight.  Warren, whose candidacy has become a religious calling for the left, raised $6.9-million last quarter, while Brown collected only half of that.  Brown, however, still has more cash on hand.  Warren should close the overall money gap – reflecting total money in the bank from all fundraising campaigns – by election day.  Polls show a tight race in a very blue state.  It is a must win for Republicans, who hope to take control of the U.S. Senate this year.  That is proving to be a tougher goal than expected. 

RESERVE YOUR TICKETS NOW – I know all of you will be excited by this.  Please write it down.  Hollywood sometimes-star Matt Damon will star in an anti-fracking film that will start shooting later this month.  There is apparently a deep wanting in the American audience for an anti-fracking film.  Why, you hear it everywhere.  People will flock.  We knew it wouldn't take long for Hollywood to make a film denouncing the most promising new technique for extracting petroleum from the ground.  I wonder where they think the power will come to run their studio lights...and their calculators.

SPOOKS IN ANTHROPOLOGY – Growing evidence of foreign spying on U.S. campuses is worrying national-security officials.  The threats are coming from East Asia, including China, and the Middle East.  They often involve requests to obtain classified or proprietary information available in research centers.  Requests from East Asia to "review" papers jumped eightfold in 2012 from the year before.  Requests from the Mideast doubled.  Foreign scholars working in American universities are in an ideal position to scout out new technologies under the guise of academic research.  We should turn the tables by directing these people to anthropology departments, which would be delighted to turn over everything they've got, most of it useless. 

April 9, 2012       Permalink 

NOW THEY TELL US – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  We could almost hear the gloating from the global warmers recently because of the unusually warm winter we had.  Vindication, they seemed to be saying.

But wait.  Things are a bit more complicated.  From AP:

WASHINGTON – Freak chance was mostly to blame for the record warm March weather that gripped two-thirds of the country, with man-made global warming providing only a tiny assist, a quick federal analysis shows.

The sound you hear is Al Gore sobbing. 

For much of March, record temperatures hit as high as 35 degrees above normal and averaged about 18 degrees warmer than usual. The United States broke or tied at least 7,733 daily high temperature records in March, which is far more than the number of records broken in last summer's heat wave or in a blistering July 1995 heat wave, according to federal records.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analyzed the causes and chances of what it nicknamed "meteorological March madness." Meteorologist Martin Hoerling said the main cause was a persistent warm wind sending toasty air north from the Gulf of Mexico. The study is not peer-reviewed and some outside scientists say it is short-sighted.

"Climate change was certainly a factor, but it was certainly a minor factor," Hoerling said.

Yeah, and another minor problem for the global warmers is that Britain experienced one of its coldest winters on record.  I wonder how they explain that one. 

COMMENT:  Do you get the feeling that we know far less about "climate change" than some scientists claim?  We're too warm, Britain is too cold.  I'd put the whole thing on hold for about five years while more data is gathered, and competing teams of scientists work against each other to come up with some proofs. 

April 9, 2012        Permalink

OBAMA NUMBERS UP – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:  You kind of wonder why.  Obama has had no great successes recently, but his numbers are up, according to Gallup.  From The Hill: 

President Obama has sustained recent gains in his job approval rating, logging his highest monthly average in almost a year, according to data released by Gallup on Monday.

In March, the president averaged a 46 percent approval rating, versus 46 percent who said they disapproved. That’s up from 45 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval in February.

Obama’s job approval rating numbers bottomed out following last summer’s contentious debt-ceiling debate and the U.S. debt downgrade, when only 41 percent said they approved of the job the president was doing, compared to 52 percent who said they disapproved.

The president’s rating has been rising steadily since then, likely buoyed by positive economic news and the protracted GOP presidential nomination fight.

More precisely, buoyed the media's interpretation of economic news.  We could have a depression right now and the press would headline, "Look, people are resting more!"

Obama’s daily job approval rating has consistently been in positive territory in recent weeks, and on Friday hit 50 percent for the first time since last June, when it spiked briefly following the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Over the weekend, the president lost a significant chunk of those gains, returning to near-break-even. Gallup’s three-day rolling average has been susceptible to dramatic swings this year, which have typically been ironed out within a few days.

How many paragraphs did it take to get to this sudden downturn?

The president fares best among blacks, Hispanics, women and young voters, demographics that went strongly for Obama during the 2008 general election.

COMMENT:   Obama won't lose much, if any, of the black vote.  But the GOP can make inroads into Hispanic communities with an intelligent discussion on immigration and a demonstration that Republicans and Hispanics share many values.  As far as the "youth" vote is concerned, the very subject nearly always puts me to sleep.  We hear about it at every election.  The youth will go for Obama.  The only question is how many of them will see voting as more important than getting a pizza.  With the kids, it's all about turnout.

April 9, 2012       Permalink

IRAN PREPARES – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  More talks, probably useless, begin with Iran this week to try to bring its nuclear program to a halt, or at least end those elements of it that can be used to build nuclear weapons.  Iran is already sending signals, in anticipation of the talks, but they are mixed.  From The New York Times:

LONDON — In the diplomatic shadowboxing ahead of a planned resumption of nuclear talks between global powers and Iran, a senior official in Tehran was quoted on Monday as hinting at what seemed to be a modest compromise to partially meet some Western concerns about the country’s uranium enrichment program.

But another high-ranking figure, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, was quoted as saying that Iran would not accept preconditions for the discussions.

“Setting conditions before the meeting means drawing conclusions, which is completely meaningless and none of the parties will accept conditions set before the talks,” the Iranian parliamentary news agency quoted the minister as saying, according to Reuters.

Earlier, Fereydoon Abbasi, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, indicated that Iran was prepared to enrich uranium to 20 percent purity “just to meet its own needs” for a research reactor but not beyond that point, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Separately, The Associated Press quoted Mr. Abbasi as saying that Tehran could stop its production of the more refined fuel, once it had stockpiled enough of it, continuing its enrichment at a lower level for the generation of power.

There was no immediate Western response to his remarks. Such offers have been greeted with skepticism in the past, since the West is pressing for Iran to do so much more. The apparent difference in tone between the remarks of Mr. Abbasi and Mr. Salehi seemed to reflect continued debate among the Iranian elite over the handling of the planned negotiations. But it was not immediately clear whether the mixed signals represented a deliberate strategy.

COMMENT:  My fear, and I think it's reflected in many comments by political observers, is that Obama will grasp at any straw to keep the talks going until after he is safely re-elected.  He clearly wants no international crisis to disrupt his campaign, another example of his pretty obvious "me first" style of governing. 

As for Iran, it has thus far not been deterred from its nuclear program, even by stinging sanctions.  The sanctions have hurt Iran's economy, but not its nuclear program.  We have no reason to believe it will be different this time around.  The Iranians, historically, have been excellent negotiators.  They will hold us off, perhaps tantalize us with a minor concession or two, but do exactly what they want to do.

April 9, 2012       Permalink 

THIS CALLS FOR MORE TALKS! – AT 8:18 A.M. ET:  The name "North Korea" is practically synonymous with diplomatic failure.  No mater how many years we negotiate with the North Koreans, no matter how many "plans" they agree to, they always wind up with greater nuclear-weapons and missile capacity.

New evidence suggests the old pattern is repeating itself.  From AP via Fox:

SEOUL, South Korea – Recent satellite images show North Korea is digging a new underground tunnel in what appears to be preparation for a third nuclear test, according to South Korean intelligence officials.

The excavation at North Korea's northeast Punggye-ri site, where nuclear tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009, is in its final stages, according to a report by intelligence officials that was shared Monday with The Associated Press.

Its release comes as North Korea prepares to launch a long-range rocket that Washington and others say is a cover for testing missile technology that could be used to fire on the United States.

Observers fear a repeat of 2009, when international criticism of the North's last long-range rocket launch prompted Pyongyang to walk away from nuclear disarmament negotiations and, weeks later, conduct its second nuclear test. A year later, 50 South Korean were killed in attacks blamed on the North.

"North Korea is covertly preparing for a third nuclear test, which would be another grave provocation," said the report, which cited U.S. commercial satellite photos taken April 1. "North Korea is digging up a new underground tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, in addition to its existing two underground tunnels, and it has been confirmed that the excavation works are in the final stages."

COMMENT:  If the reports are accurate, and no one is currently disputing them, they are another example of the apparent North Korean belief that they can get away with anything, that no one will actually stop them.

South Korea and Japan, two of our closest allies, are directly impacted by North Korean power and technology.  And North Korea is one of the world's greatest proliferators of advanced weapons.  Nuclear and missile technology developed in North Korea can find its way to Iran and other rogues.

It's interesting that North Korea cannot feed its own people, and yet can spend vast resources on nuclear and missile weapons.  This gives the lie to the line, gaining favor again on the ideological left, that we need not fear terror states like Iran or Pakistan because they have "weak" economies.  It is an illusion.  The Soviet Union fought World War II with a third-world economy, and yet made mincemeat of the German armies.

April 9,  2012     Permalink

APRIL 8,  2012 

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:21 P.M. ET:

SYRIAN DEAL CLOSE TO COLLAPSE – WaPo reports that a peace plan for Syria brokered by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is close to collapse, just as it was going to go into effect.  The Syrian government, at the last minute, imposed new conditions on the rebel forces, which the rebels are refusing to accept.  It appears that, unless there's a compromise, the fighting will go on.  It has already taken 9,000 Syrian lives.  Notice the sense of urgency in Washington. 

OHIO GOVERNOR PREDICTS CLOSE RACE IN STATE – Republican Governor John Kasich of Ohio is predicting that the presidential race in his state will be "tight as a tick," and will be decided by independent voters.  We can legitimately wonder whether Kasich is just giving his opinion or making a bid to be put on the Romney ticket to help bring in Ohio.  But, of course, politicians never think like that, do they?

TULSA – The arrest of two white men in the shooting of five African-Americans in the last few days, which resulted in three deaths, has eased racial tensions in Tulsa.  As we reported this morning, the racial arsonists kept quiet for a change.  But there are still questions as to motive, whether these shootings targeted blacks because of race.  Tulsa police are now saying that irrational revenge may have been the motive of one of the two arrested.  That man's father was killed by a black man two years ago.  The press, in contrast to its wild reporting in the Trayvon Martin case, continues to act with restraint.

April 8, 2012       Permalink 

RISKY BUSINESS – AT 11:42 A.M. ET:  The Dems have made some gains with their claim that the GOP is waging a "war on women."  Of course it's absurd, but a certain number of people will believe almost anything that's charged.

I think it's risky business.  Those gains can evaporate when Republicans start fighting back.  Ann Romney, the potential first lady, has multiple sclerosis and has had a form of breast cancer.  The Romneys can speak personally and emotionally about women's health issues.

Still, the Dems are at it.  From The Politico:

Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz said Sunday the Republican Party is focused on “turning back the clock for women.”

The Florida congresswoman told CNN’s Candy Crowley on “State of the Union” that Republican policies toward women show “how callous and insensitive they are.”

“The focus of the Republican Party on turning back the clock for women really is something that's unacceptable and shows how callus and insensitive they are towards women's priorities,” Wasserman Schultz said.

“Because the policies that have come out of the Republican Party saying we should have to have a debate again over contraception and whether we should have access to it and it should be affordable, saying that like Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin, you know, he tried to quietly repeal the Equal Pay Act. Women aren't going to stand for that,” Wasserman Schultz said. “Gov. Walker just signed a bill that repeals the equal pay law that they had in Wisconsin for years. You have Republicans that have engaged themselves for the entire Congress on trying to redefine rape as only being forceful rape, defunding Planned Parenthood and family planning programs.”

COMMENT:  This is way over the top, and eventually voters will realize it.  Mitt Romney is no extremist, and people will realize that as well.

The Democrats dream of returning the country to the divisive sixties.  The "war on women" claim was followed by a "war on blacks" claim.  Soon we'll have Dems running around in tie-dyed jeans and regretting Lyndon Johnson.

However, these charges cannot go unanswered.  Romney must have specific ideas on how women can advance during a Romney administration.  Ann Romney, who is a tremendous asset, and a fine speaker, is Mitt's secret weapon on this issue.

If Romney plays it right, it's the Democrats who'll come out of this looking foolish, immature and extreme.

April 8, 2012       Permalink

NEWT GETTING REAL – AT 11:02 A.M. ET:  I admire Newt Gingrich for the vigor of his intellect, for his superb preparation on the issues, and his debating skill.

Indeed, it would have been wonderful to see Newt debating Obama.  Obama would have needed three teleprompters and earpieces in each ear through which he would be fed lines. 

But, alas, it is not to be.  Many Republicans clearly did not appreciate Newt's style and signaled he'd be a better presidential adviser than president.  It's now apparent that Newt is starting to accept the verdict.  From Fox:

Newt Gingrich acknowledged Sunday that his campaign is "operating on a shoestring," as he signaled he is preparing to transition from candidate to surrogate in anticipation of Mitt Romney winning the nomination.
While not throwing in the towel just yet, the former House speaker spoke frequently in past tense about his presidential bid in an interview on "Fox News Sunday." He said he wants to continue to try and influence the party platform, but said he's already discussed with the Republican National Committee how he can best help the nominee defeat President Obama if it's not him.

Romney, he said, "is far and away the most likely" nominee. Looking back on the race, Gingrich said he has "no regrets" -- he became visibly emotional as he discussed on Easter Sunday how his faith helped him through the campaign.

"I'm glad I did this," Gingrich said of his decision to run, calling it "the right thing for me to do."

COMMENT:  The internal issue now is Rick Santorum.  There is speculation that he will drop out even before the Pennsylvania primary, which is two weeks and two days away, if convinced that he could suffer a humiliating defeat in his home state.  Pennsylvania airwaves are being flooded with Romney ads, and two polls suggest that they are beginning to bite.   Rasmussen reports that Santorum only leads by four points, 42-38.  Public Policy Polling reports that Romney is actually in the lead, 42-37 percent.  Romney is clearly consolidating his support among Republicans, as it becomes obvious that he will be the nominee. 

We think it is likely that Romney will have a clear field by the end of the month, and will be able to devote all of his attention to the general-election campaign, and the choice of a running mate.

April 8, 2012      Permalink

RELIEF IN TULSA – AT 10:39 A.M. ET:  As of last night we worried that the shooting of five black citizens in Tulsa, resulting in three fatalities, was the beginning of another Trayvon Martin case.

However, police have now arrested two suspects, both white, and are moving the case swiftly along.  While the shootings have the appearance of a racially motivated crime, police are not calling it that, insisting that they need further details.  They are conducting interrogations of the accused men this morning.

The Tulsa police, who have a checkered history, acted in a swift, professional manner.  Leaders of the local African-American community behaved intelligently and thoughtfully.  The racial agitators stayed away, probably because they didn't have enough time to make the trip and get themselves on TV.  And the media has not jumped to any conclusions. 

Maybe, in fact, we're learning something.

April 8,  2012     Permalink