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APRIL 10,  2012 

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:31 P.M. ET:

RICK BOWS OUT – All of you are probably aware by now that Rick Santorum has suspended his presidential campaign.  Newt Gingrich has not, but he was fast becoming an electoral astirisk.  He no longer has the funds to mount a true effort.  Ron Paul will remain, but he always has.  Romney will be the nominee, barring some catastrophe.  Santorum didn't mention Romney in his withdrawal speech, indicating that there's still some healing to do.  But Romney can now devote himself to the general election campaign and the choice of a running mate.

VERY STRANGE – There has been a dramatic turn in the Trayvon Martin case.  Attorneys for the shooter, George Zimmerman, have resigned from the case, citing their inability to contact their client.  They said they hadn't been able to reach him since Sunday, and that he is no longer in Florida.  That's strange.  I could see attorneys standing down if they couldn't reach a client for, say, a week.  But a day and a half?  I'm guessing, with no direct evidence, that there are other factors here.  Meanwhile, Angela Corey, the special prosecutor in the case, says she will release new information within 72 hours.  Some observers say she might announce charges, if any.  The question now:  Where is George Zimmerman?  The Trayvon Martin family says it's concerned he'll never be found.  Let's wait for facts.

MIXING POLITICS AND SPORTS – It's really quite a remarkable spectacle:  The Venezuelan-born manager of the Miami Marlins major-league baseball team, Ozzie Guillen, has been suspended for five games for saying over the weekend that he loved Fidel Castro.  Yeah, he said that.  In Miami.  That's like going to Tel Aviv and singing a love song to Adolf Hitler.  The Marlins have had a difficult relationship with Miami's Cuban-American community, and that community is now in an uproar.  The five-game suspension, and the apologies Guillen has made for his comment, will not be enough.  Guillen will be booed every time he steps out on the field.  My guess:  We'll see a new Marlins manager very soon.  Politics and sports do mix.

SOFT-SPOKEN CHRIS – Kindly, warm, gentle Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey has given a mild, thoughtful analysis of our national condition.  He says we're turning into a "paternalistic entitlement society" that will lead us to national bankruptcy and moral degradation.  He says,  “We’ll have a bunch of people sittin’ on a couch waiting for their next government check.”  Other than that, he's all for us.  I love Chris Christie.  He's a great governor.  He tells it like it is.  I'm not so sure he's the type who would wear well on a national ticket. 

April 10, 2012       Permalink

NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:   North Korea is about to send up a missile as part of what it calls a peaceful satellite launch.  Pretty much everyone else calls it a test of the country's ICBM program. 

Japan has already given orders to shoot down the North Korean missile if it threatens any Japanese home island. 

We don't normally praise statements by the Obama White House, especially on national security, but the White House has issued an unusually intelligent and firm statement on the North Korean action: 

The White House is pushing back against the media for what it sees as oversaturated coverage of this week’s forthcoming North Korean missile test.

“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know this is a propaganda exercise,” National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor told me. “Reporters have to be careful not to get co-opted.”

The way they were co-opted by the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam War.

The long-range missile test, which Pyongyang is touting as a peaceful satellite launch, has given networks, newspapers and wires a rare opportunity to report from within the country. NBC’s Richard Engel, ABC’s Bob Woodruff and CNN’s Stan Grant are among those who have already produced curtain-raising segments on the days ahead. The Associated Press is turning out blow-by-blow coverage, and reporters are tweeting and filing frequently.

But Vietor fears that by flooding the zone in North Korea, U.S. media outlets are providing the country’s leadership with propaganda tools that will only embolden their efforts to enhance its intercontinental ballistic missile capability.

“North Korea is trying to sell this to the world as being about space exploration, when really it’s about testing missile technology,” he told me. “They’re using the press, using this angle of a space mission, to hide their real goal.”

At the same time, he said, “they are tightly tacking the press into tight areas so they only see military hardware. They’re not allowing them to tour the countryside and see the people who are starving.”

COMMENT:  Very well said.  I always fear that elements of the press will develop a soft spot in their hearts for some Stalinist country.   A number of their predecessors had the same problem.  Sadly, journalists with that affliction tend to be well rewarded. 

April 10, 2012       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:22 A.M. ET:

From CBS Detroit:  President Barack Obama is coming to the Motor City for a $1 million pizza party being thrown for him compliments of Denise Ilitch, daughter of Little Caesars’ founders Mike and Marian Ilitch. Ilitch is opening her home April 18 for the fundraiser where movers and shakers are being asked to pony up thousands to add to his re-election coffer while getting a chance to rub shoulders with the most powerful man on the planet...$40,000 buys access to the cocktail reception, formal photo with Obama and dinner. $10,000 buys dinner and a photo.

Man of the people.  Detroit is one of the poorest cities in the United States.  Yuch.

SOME GOOD ADVICE – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  Although we have doubts about the Washington Post poll published today – see the story just below – Romney gets some very solid advice in the Post today from op-ed columnist Michael Gerson, who was Bush 43's chief speechwriter. 

Gerson takes seriously Romney's inability thus far to connect with voters, especially women.  He reminds us of some truths about American politics: 

The GOP’s main problem is not the contraceptive issue; it is the perception that it has become too ideological on many issues. Women and independent voters have seen a party enthusiastically confirming its most damaging stereotypes. The composite Republican candidate — reflecting the party’s ideological mean — has been harsh on immigration, confrontational on social issues, simplistic in condemning government and silent on the struggles of the poor. How many women would find this profile appealing on eHarmony?

This is the hidden curse of the Republican congressional triumph of 2010. Republican activists came to believe that purity is all that is necessary for victory. But a presidential candidate, it turns out, requires a broader ideological attraction than your average tea party House freshman.

And...

A number of eventual presidents, including Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, emerged weakened from their nomination battles. And Romney is not a radical figure. During the heat of the primaries, he was accused of being a closet pragmatist. Now he can finally come out.

And..

Mainly, women and independents want some reassurance that Republicans give a damn about someone other than Republican primary voters. It is not a high bar. But Romney needs to start somewhere — to pick an issue of justice and equity that he cares about deeply. It could be lowering an unemployment rate that is now more than 40 percent among African American teenagers. Or the improvement of high school dropout factories attended by 38 percent of black students and 33 percent of Latino students in America. There are plenty of sound conservative and free-market reforms that can be applied to improving the lives of the vulnerable.

Finally...

One of the best ways to appeal to women — and to humans, for that matter — is to show some humanity.

COMMENT:  Gerson has it right.  With just about everyone on the right now claiming the mantle of Ronald Reagan, we forget how warm Reagan was, and how practical.  He was an idealist, not an ideologist.  He was common-sense, not rigid.  He knew when to make a deal.  As a two-term governor of our largest state, he knew how to be president.  He was a conservative, and he stood for conservative principles.  But they were principles, not hand grenades. 

Reagan built the strongest defense force America has seen since the end of World War II.  But he was also an arms controller. 

I do fear that the Republican Party is making the same mistake the Democratic Party made, starting in the late sixties, roping itself to a rigidly ideological base.  I respect that base, but it cannot win a presidential election alone.  In 2008 Barack Obama convinced Americans, falsely, that he is a moderate.  He isn't a moderate, but he and his handlers understood that Americans are skeptical of rigid ideology. 

Romney can win.  Statistically, he is actually in a better place than Reagan was at this point in 1980.  He must be a conservative because that is the fundamental platform of his party.  But he's now, in the words of the old commercial, got to reach out and touch someone, and demonstrate that conservatism, well practiced, presents a positive vision of the future, not just a scolding lecture.

I am not interested in losing.  Losing is a bore.

April 10, 2012       Permalink

BAD POLL, BUT A WARNING – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  I wish news organizations would try to meet at least an acceptable standard in the polls they sponsor and publish.  I don't see any sign that this wish will come true.

The Washington Post publishes today a poll that is very bad news for Mitt Romney:

With the general-election campaign beginning to take shape, President Obama holds clear advantages over Mitt Romney on personal attributes and a number of key issues, but remains vulnerable to discontent with the pace of the economic recovery, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama has double-digit leads over the likely Republican presidential nominee on who would do a better job of protecting the middle class, addressing women’s issues, handling international affairs and dealing with health care.

On personal traits, the president’s edge is even bigger: He has a better than 2-to-1 advantage as the more friendly and likable of the two, and nearly that margin as “more inspiring.”

Romney faces a huge deficit among female voters, one that more than negates his advantage among men and represents one of the biggest challenges he and his advisers face as they turn toward the November election. Obama’s edge among women gives him a clear lead among all registered voters in a matchup with Romney.

COMMENT:  Pretty grim, and I think it does match the general feelings about Romney versus Obama.  But here is the kicker, again from the Post's story: 

This poll was conducted April 5 to 8 among a random national sample of 1,103 adults. Results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

That is about the worst way to take a poll.  It isn't even a poll of registered voters.  And it certainly isn't a poll of likely voters, which is the best kind of poll.  Elections are decided by votes cast on election day.  They are not decided by "all adults," a good chunk of whom will never meet a voting machine. 

Polls that survey likely voters tend to go "more Republican," so some of the numbers in this new poll should be viewed with skepticism.  Still, Romney has a tough road ahead.  He is up against a formidable political machine that has experience at winning a national election.  And it isn't run by sweet guys.

April 10, 2012       Permalink

IRAN DEFIANT – AT 8:37 A.M. ET:  With international talks on his country's nuclear program only days away, the president of Iran is striking a note of defiance, essentially mocking the sanctions that have been imposed on his country.

(Reuters) - Iran has enough funds to withstand a total embargo on its oil sales for two to three years, Iranian media quoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying days before the resumption of talks with world powers on Tehran's nuclear programme.

The European Union is set to impose a total embargo on Iranian crude oil from July following similar measures imposed by the United States to try to force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment.

"We must say to them that we have that much saved that even if we didn't sell oil for two to three years, the country would manage easily," a report on Tuesday from Fars news agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying during a visit to Hormuzgan province.

The United States and its allies hope the sanctions on Iran's energy and financial sectors will force it to abandon uranium enrichment which they suspect is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its goals are entirely peaceful.

Iran is due to resume talks this week with Western countries plus Russia and China on its nuclear programme.

COMMENT:  And if Iran could hold out two or three years, it would probably have a nuclear weapon by the time the economic pain truly began to hurt.

This could be bluster, but the fact remains that no sanctions have ever worked with Iran in forcing the kind of change we're demanding – the abandonment of any part of its nuclear program leading to a weapon.  And there seems to be a general feeling of pessimism about the talks about to start.

In the last few days we've learned that the USS Enterprise strike group has entered the territory near Iran, joining another American carrier.  (For the Enterprise, this is a last hurrah.  It is our oldest aircraft carrier, and will be retired later this year.)  This marks the first time in many years that the United States has had two carriers in the region.  Clearly, this is meant to send a message to the Iranians.  Obama has also said repeatedly that there is little time left for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff.  What does he mean though?  What would we actually do?  No direct answers have been given.

An Israeli newspaper reports this morning that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promised President Obama that Israel would take no military action against Iran until after the American election.  I suspect, but cannot prove, that the story is true.  To this president, everything is about politics.  But we should be reminded, in this context, of the wisdom expressed by Douglas MacArthur, who reminded us that all military disasters begin with two words:  Too late.

April 10,  2012     Permalink

APRIL 9,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:53 P.M. ET:

FAILED ROAD TEST – The good news for the greenies:  The number of models of fuel-efficient "hybrid" cars available in the U.S. is growing.  The bad news for the greenies:  More hybrid buyers than not are deciding against hybrids when they buy their next car.  Only 35% of hybrid owners choose a hybrid when they return to the market.  With Prius buyers, the number is under 25%.  Obviously, hybrid technology isn't delivering in ways that buyers thought it would; meanwhile, conventionally powered vehicles have become better and more efficient.

MASSACHUSETTS BATTLE – The Senate contest in Massachusetts between ultra-lib Elizabeth Warren and Republican incumbent Scott Brown is turning into a money fight.  Warren, whose candidacy has become a religious calling for the left, raised $6.9-million last quarter, while Brown collected only half of that.  Brown, however, still has more cash on hand.  Warren should close the overall money gap – reflecting total money in the bank from all fundraising campaigns – by election day.  Polls show a tight race in a very blue state.  It is a must win for Republicans, who hope to take control of the U.S. Senate this year.  That is proving to be a tougher goal than expected. 

RESERVE YOUR TICKETS NOW – I know all of you will be excited by this.  Please write it down.  Hollywood sometimes-star Matt Damon will star in an anti-fracking film that will start shooting later this month.  There is apparently a deep wanting in the American audience for an anti-fracking film.  Why, you hear it everywhere.  People will flock.  We knew it wouldn't take long for Hollywood to make a film denouncing the most promising new technique for extracting petroleum from the ground.  I wonder where they think the power will come to run their studio lights...and their calculators.

SPOOKS IN ANTHROPOLOGY – Growing evidence of foreign spying on U.S. campuses is worrying national-security officials.  The threats are coming from East Asia, including China, and the Middle East.  They often involve requests to obtain classified or proprietary information available in research centers.  Requests from East Asia to "review" papers jumped eightfold in 2012 from the year before.  Requests from the Mideast doubled.  Foreign scholars working in American universities are in an ideal position to scout out new technologies under the guise of academic research.  We should turn the tables by directing these people to anthropology departments, which would be delighted to turn over everything they've got, most of it useless. 

April 9, 2012       Permalink 

NOW THEY TELL US – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  We could almost hear the gloating from the global warmers recently because of the unusually warm winter we had.  Vindication, they seemed to be saying.

But wait.  Things are a bit more complicated.  From AP:

WASHINGTON – Freak chance was mostly to blame for the record warm March weather that gripped two-thirds of the country, with man-made global warming providing only a tiny assist, a quick federal analysis shows.

The sound you hear is Al Gore sobbing. 

For much of March, record temperatures hit as high as 35 degrees above normal and averaged about 18 degrees warmer than usual. The United States broke or tied at least 7,733 daily high temperature records in March, which is far more than the number of records broken in last summer's heat wave or in a blistering July 1995 heat wave, according to federal records.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analyzed the causes and chances of what it nicknamed "meteorological March madness." Meteorologist Martin Hoerling said the main cause was a persistent warm wind sending toasty air north from the Gulf of Mexico. The study is not peer-reviewed and some outside scientists say it is short-sighted.

"Climate change was certainly a factor, but it was certainly a minor factor," Hoerling said.

Yeah, and another minor problem for the global warmers is that Britain experienced one of its coldest winters on record.  I wonder how they explain that one. 

COMMENT:  Do you get the feeling that we know far less about "climate change" than some scientists claim?  We're too warm, Britain is too cold.  I'd put the whole thing on hold for about five years while more data is gathered, and competing teams of scientists work against each other to come up with some proofs. 

April 9, 2012        Permalink

OBAMA NUMBERS UP – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:  You kind of wonder why.  Obama has had no great successes recently, but his numbers are up, according to Gallup.  From The Hill: 

President Obama has sustained recent gains in his job approval rating, logging his highest monthly average in almost a year, according to data released by Gallup on Monday.

In March, the president averaged a 46 percent approval rating, versus 46 percent who said they disapproved. That’s up from 45 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval in February.

Obama’s job approval rating numbers bottomed out following last summer’s contentious debt-ceiling debate and the U.S. debt downgrade, when only 41 percent said they approved of the job the president was doing, compared to 52 percent who said they disapproved.

The president’s rating has been rising steadily since then, likely buoyed by positive economic news and the protracted GOP presidential nomination fight.

More precisely, buoyed the media's interpretation of economic news.  We could have a depression right now and the press would headline, "Look, people are resting more!"

Obama’s daily job approval rating has consistently been in positive territory in recent weeks, and on Friday hit 50 percent for the first time since last June, when it spiked briefly following the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Over the weekend, the president lost a significant chunk of those gains, returning to near-break-even. Gallup’s three-day rolling average has been susceptible to dramatic swings this year, which have typically been ironed out within a few days.

How many paragraphs did it take to get to this sudden downturn?

The president fares best among blacks, Hispanics, women and young voters, demographics that went strongly for Obama during the 2008 general election.

COMMENT:   Obama won't lose much, if any, of the black vote.  But the GOP can make inroads into Hispanic communities with an intelligent discussion on immigration and a demonstration that Republicans and Hispanics share many values.  As far as the "youth" vote is concerned, the very subject nearly always puts me to sleep.  We hear about it at every election.  The youth will go for Obama.  The only question is how many of them will see voting as more important than getting a pizza.  With the kids, it's all about turnout.

April 9, 2012       Permalink

IRAN PREPARES – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  More talks, probably useless, begin with Iran this week to try to bring its nuclear program to a halt, or at least end those elements of it that can be used to build nuclear weapons.  Iran is already sending signals, in anticipation of the talks, but they are mixed.  From The New York Times:

LONDON — In the diplomatic shadowboxing ahead of a planned resumption of nuclear talks between global powers and Iran, a senior official in Tehran was quoted on Monday as hinting at what seemed to be a modest compromise to partially meet some Western concerns about the country’s uranium enrichment program.

But another high-ranking figure, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, was quoted as saying that Iran would not accept preconditions for the discussions.

“Setting conditions before the meeting means drawing conclusions, which is completely meaningless and none of the parties will accept conditions set before the talks,” the Iranian parliamentary news agency quoted the minister as saying, according to Reuters.

Earlier, Fereydoon Abbasi, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, indicated that Iran was prepared to enrich uranium to 20 percent purity “just to meet its own needs” for a research reactor but not beyond that point, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Separately, The Associated Press quoted Mr. Abbasi as saying that Tehran could stop its production of the more refined fuel, once it had stockpiled enough of it, continuing its enrichment at a lower level for the generation of power.

There was no immediate Western response to his remarks. Such offers have been greeted with skepticism in the past, since the West is pressing for Iran to do so much more. The apparent difference in tone between the remarks of Mr. Abbasi and Mr. Salehi seemed to reflect continued debate among the Iranian elite over the handling of the planned negotiations. But it was not immediately clear whether the mixed signals represented a deliberate strategy.

COMMENT:  My fear, and I think it's reflected in many comments by political observers, is that Obama will grasp at any straw to keep the talks going until after he is safely re-elected.  He clearly wants no international crisis to disrupt his campaign, another example of his pretty obvious "me first" style of governing. 

As for Iran, it has thus far not been deterred from its nuclear program, even by stinging sanctions.  The sanctions have hurt Iran's economy, but not its nuclear program.  We have no reason to believe it will be different this time around.  The Iranians, historically, have been excellent negotiators.  They will hold us off, perhaps tantalize us with a minor concession or two, but do exactly what they want to do.

April 9, 2012       Permalink 

THIS CALLS FOR MORE TALKS! – AT 8:18 A.M. ET:  The name "North Korea" is practically synonymous with diplomatic failure.  No mater how many years we negotiate with the North Koreans, no matter how many "plans" they agree to, they always wind up with greater nuclear-weapons and missile capacity.

New evidence suggests the old pattern is repeating itself.  From AP via Fox:

SEOUL, South Korea – Recent satellite images show North Korea is digging a new underground tunnel in what appears to be preparation for a third nuclear test, according to South Korean intelligence officials.

The excavation at North Korea's northeast Punggye-ri site, where nuclear tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009, is in its final stages, according to a report by intelligence officials that was shared Monday with The Associated Press.

Its release comes as North Korea prepares to launch a long-range rocket that Washington and others say is a cover for testing missile technology that could be used to fire on the United States.

Observers fear a repeat of 2009, when international criticism of the North's last long-range rocket launch prompted Pyongyang to walk away from nuclear disarmament negotiations and, weeks later, conduct its second nuclear test. A year later, 50 South Korean were killed in attacks blamed on the North.

"North Korea is covertly preparing for a third nuclear test, which would be another grave provocation," said the report, which cited U.S. commercial satellite photos taken April 1. "North Korea is digging up a new underground tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, in addition to its existing two underground tunnels, and it has been confirmed that the excavation works are in the final stages."

COMMENT:  If the reports are accurate, and no one is currently disputing them, they are another example of the apparent North Korean belief that they can get away with anything, that no one will actually stop them.

South Korea and Japan, two of our closest allies, are directly impacted by North Korean power and technology.  And North Korea is one of the world's greatest proliferators of advanced weapons.  Nuclear and missile technology developed in North Korea can find its way to Iran and other rogues.

It's interesting that North Korea cannot feed its own people, and yet can spend vast resources on nuclear and missile weapons.  This gives the lie to the line, gaining favor again on the ideological left, that we need not fear terror states like Iran or Pakistan because they have "weak" economies.  It is an illusion.  The Soviet Union fought World War II with a third-world economy, and yet made mincemeat of the German armies.

April 9,  2012     Permalink