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APRIL 11,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:41 P.M. ET:

LEGAL MINDS – The vice president of the United States, Joe Biden, today described former Saturday Night Live comedian, Senator Al Franken of Minnesota, as a "leading legal scholar."   As Johnny Carson used to say, "I did not know that."  Franken is not a lawyer, but he did go to Harvard.  Maybe, in Joe Biden's mind, that makes him a scholar in everything.  Somehow, I don't think so.

SICKENING – U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, who is a racialist, today heaped praise on Al Sharpton.  He thanked Sharpton “for your partnership, your friendship, and your tireless efforts to speak out for the voiceless, to stand up for the powerless, and to shine a light on the problems we must solve, and the promises we must fulfill.”  Yeah, right.  We in New York know Sharpton as a racial arsonist who has contributed essentially nothing to the lives of his own people, but contributed much to himself.  The man is an embarrassment, and so is our attorney general.

MUST BE A DEFECT IN THE CALCULATOR – It turns out that the Obama White House, which accuses the GOP of a "war on women" has been paying female employees much less than male employees for the same work.  Britain's Daily Mail reports that there's an $11,000 median difference in salaries.  And Mitt Romney is turning the tables on Obama, charging that it's the current administration that's waging a war on women, pointing out the number of women thrown on the unemployment roles since Obama took office.

IMITATION IS THE SINCEREST FORM OF POLITICS – The Republican National Committee has issued a video showing speeches by President Obama, made a year apart, but using almost identical language.  “During moments of great challenge and change like the one that we’re living through now, the debate gets sharper and it gets more vigorous,” Obama said in 2011.  In 2012 he said,  "During moments of great challenge and great change like the ones that we’re living through now, the debate gets sharper, it gets more vigorous.”  Many other mirrored quotes were found.  I wonder how much the speechwriters are being paid.

April 11,  2012     Permalink

ZIMMERMAN CHARGED – AT 7:52 P.M. ET:  George Zimmerman, the shooter in the Trayvon Martin case, has been charged with second-degree murder and has turned himself in.  He was promptly arrested.

I watched special prosecutor Angela Corey make her statement announcing the charge on television.  She behaved with great dignity, explaining the process, and the need to try a case in court, with facts, and not in the press or in the court of public opinion.  Ms. Corey obviously takes her work seriously, and her thoughtful statement should be appreciated by those who demand high standards of public servants.

Now the state must prove its case against Zimmerman, and that may be very difficult.  The question:  Will we get a real trial, or an O.J. Simpson trial, where an outrageous verdict was rendered.  Already the family of Trayvon Martin, their grief understandable, is saying that this charge is only the first step.  In effect, they are demanding a conviction, and one must wonder whether a jury, even an anonymous jury, will feel intimidated.  To people like Al Sharpton, one of the Martin family's "advisers," justice is never the goal.  Winning is the goal, at any cost, and with any facts or lies.

From Fox:

Neighborhood watch volunteer George Zimmerman is being charged with second-degree murder in the shooting of Trayvon Martin, the unarmed black teenager whose death ignited nationwide protests.

Special prosecutor Angela Corey says that the 28-year-old Zimmerman is in custody, but wouldn't say where for his safety. She said that he will be in court within 24 hours.

Defense attorney Mark O'Mara, Zimmerman's new lawyer, said that Zimmerman will plead not guilty to the murder charge. O'Mara also said he is "hoping that the community will calm down."

Corey says that authorities did not come to the decision lightly, nor was it based on public pressure. She wouldn't disclose other details of her investigation, saying: "That's why we try cases in court."

A second-degree murder charge in Florida carries a maximum sentence of life in prison. It is typically charged when there is a fight or other confrontation that results in death and where there is no premeditated plan to kill someone.

Corey said the decision to bring charges was based on the facts and the law, declaring: "We do not prosecute by public pressure or by petition."

Meanwhile, the parents of Trayvon Martin said charges against George Zimmerman in the fatal shooting their son would start the healing process, but they won't stop fighting until he's convicted. "We just wanted an arrest and we got it," Martin's mother, Sybrina Fulton, said.

Yeah, and that's part of the problem.  "We want."  Like the Duke University lacrosse case, there is danger that this case will be more show and less justice.  There is a possibility that Zimmerman, whose guilt or innocence we do not judge, will be thrown to the mob.

Zimmerman's new attorney, Mark O'Hara, will undoubtedly face threats and harassment.  He has guts.  He should be protected by the state, if need be.

Now, another point:  It is critical, in my view, for the Florida Bar to investigate the behavior of Zimmerman's former lawyers.  Those are the birds who "resigned" from the case yesterday, saying they couldn't get in touch with their client.  In fact, they had been out of touch a day and half, hardly a long period.  Paul Callan, a former New York prosecutor and a CNN legal analyst, was on TV today to say how dismayed he (and other lawyers) are at the behavior of these attorneys.  They appeared on TV to announce that they're leaving the case.  They all but said that Zimmerman was mentally unstable, something highly inappropriate for counsel to say in public.  They said that Zimmerman had fled the state of Florida.  In fact, he surrendered to authorities in Florida today.  They prejudiced public opinion against their own former client. 

A probe is called for. You'll recall that, in the Duke University case, the local district attorney was probed over his actions, and eventually disbarred.  

This case will find its way into national politics this year.  It will be used to whip up the Democratic base.  It is the left wing of the Democratic Party that sets group against group.  Not very pretty.

April 11, 2012       Permalink

SOME GOOD NEWS, FOR A CHANGE – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  It's good to publish some good news.  It turns out that the teen pregnancy rate is plunging in the United States.  That is good, and it demonstrates that social pathologies can be fought...if we actually decide to fight them, and not listen to the "multiculturalists" who tell us that "Teen pregnancy has its own culural validity..."  From the Washington Times: 

In 16 states, teen birthrates tumbled by at least 20 percent in recent years, the federal government said in a report. Large declines such as these helped push the nation’s teen birthrate to a new low in 2010.

It’s a “pretty amazing” set of trends, said Brady E. Hamilton, senior researcher and co-author of the Tuesday report from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), which provided state data and other details about the 2010 teen birthrates.

These data show “a truly extraordinary American success story,” said Bill Albert, chief program officer for the National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy.

“You couple these impressive declines with the better than 40 percent decline in teen pregnancy … and it really is quite remarkable progress,” he said.

Mr. Albert, whose group was not involved with the report, attributes the decline to a shift in teen behavior.

“More teens are delaying sexual activity, which is a good and responsible thing to do. And those teenagers who are having sex are using contraception better.”

COMMENT:  That's very encouraging.  Much more work has to be done, of course.  Each new generation must be taught, and must accept that the right thing to do is also the cool thing to do.  But we should study what's being done in the fight against teen pregnancy, and apply the lessons elsewhere...with or without the permission of cultural propagandists.

April 11, 2012      Permalink

THAT POLL – AT 9:40 A.M. ET:  Rarely have I seen a political poll get so much attention.  Yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post poll, reporting that Obama is very strong at this stage, has elicited a major uproar among those familiar with polling methodology.  What they see, they don't like.  From the Weekly Standard:

Yesterday, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll seemed to confirm the meme that Barack Obama is pummeling Mitt Romney among women, helping the former open up a 7-point lead in the general election horse race.

What to make of this?

Well, for starters, the poll has an inexplicably large Democratic advantage – the party breakdown in the poll is 34 percent Democratic, 23 percent Republican, and 34 percent independent. As a point of historical comparison, the party spread in four of the last five elections since 2002 has basically been an even split between the two sides. In 2008, a “perfect storm” of bad news for the GOP, the party ID advantage was “only” +7. So, a Democratic advantage of +11 is an unjustifiable number, at least in terms of what the electorate is thinking.

Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey did a solid job of dressing down the pollsters for such an absurd Democratic skew, and I encourage you to read his response carefully. I’ll just add that I am always amused when pollsters find an advantage for Democratic candidates that is less than their Democratic oversample. In this case, ABC News/WaPo finds Obama’s job approval at +5 (50 percent approve to 45 percent disapprove), but that is not nearly so impressive in a D+11 sample!

Polls like this are useful, however, in a kind of “Nixon goes to China” sense. Put another way, if Democrats look weak in polls that are so ridiculously pro-Democratic, you know they are in trouble.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It's fascinating.  The poll was taken among "all adults," an approach that always tilts toward the Democrats.  Many Democrats don't vote.  (And we must not encourage them!) 

The ineptness of that poll doesn't, however, mean that Romney is in particularly good shape.  This will be a very tough race against an incumbent who will stop at nothing to be re-elected, and whose White House has been turned into a 24/7 campaign headquarters.

April 11,  2012     Permalink

WATCH THESE BOYS CAREFULLY – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  Iran is an ancient nation, and has always been known for the quality of its international negotiators.  They are not amateurs.  Remember that Iran has "negotiated" over its nuclear program for years, and has still been able to do whatever it wished. 

Now, just before still another round of "talks" on its nuclear program begins, the Iranians dangle a very small olive branch:

(Reuters) - Iran will present new proposals at talks on Saturday aimed at easing concerns about its nuclear activity, state television said, but it was unclear if Tehran was willing to address its disputed uranium enrichment drive as six world powers want.

Yeah, that little thing always gets in the way.

It was the latest apparent attempt to strengthen Iran's position ahead of the talks, which the powers insists must tackle its higher-grade enrichment activities seen in the West as a disguised effort to develop nuclear weapons capability.

The Islamic Republic says the program is solely for power generation and medical needs.

"Iran's representatives will participate in the negotiations with new initiatives and we hope that the P5+1 countries will also enter talks with constructive approaches," said the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, according to English-language news network Press TV.

Jalili, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, said it was "ready to hold progressive and successful talks on cooperation" but that "the language of threat and pressure against the Iranian nation has never yielded results."

COMMENT:  As if anything else has yielded results.  My great fear is that Iran, like the old Soviet Union, knows that there are eager "useful idiots" in the West ready to grasp at any minor concession.  If Iran were to put the word "peace" on each of its nuclear reactors, there are people around Obama who would announce, "See, we're making progress."

And Iran knows that President Obama is desperate to avoid any disruption before election day.

These talks will be intriguing, and dangerous.

April 11, 2012       Permalink

STUNNING REBUKE – AT 8:15 A.M. ET:  A group of former astronauts and scientists and engineers has rebuked NASA for the agency's rigid adherence to the ideology of global warming.  I guess all these people, with their formidable reputations, will now be denounced as cranks and kooks.  From the Washington Examiner:

In an unprecedented slap at NASA’s endorsement of global warming science, nearly 50 former astronauts and scientists--including the ex-boss of the Johnson Space Center--claim the agency is on the wrong side of science and must change course or ruin the reputation of the world’s top space agency.

Challenging statements from NASA that man is causing climate change, the former NASA executives demanded in a letter to Administrator Charles Bolden that he and the agency “refrain from including unproven remarks” supporting global warming in the media.

We recall that Bolden said, upon taking office, that President Obama had given NASA the mission of Muslim outreach.  Why spend time on science?

“We feel that NASA’s advocacy of an extreme position, prior to a thorough study of the possible overwhelming impact of natural climate drivers is inappropriate,” they wrote. “At risk is damage to the exemplary reputation of NASA, NASA’s current or former scientists and employees, and even the reputation of science itself.”

The letter was signed by seven Apollo astronauts, a deputy associate administrator, several scientists, and even the deputy director of the space shuttle program.

NASA had no immediate comment.

In their letter, the group said that thousands of years of data challenge modern-day claims that man-made carbon dioxide is causing climate change. “With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from (NASA’s) Goddard Institute for Space Studies leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled,” they wrote.

COMMENT:  Good for them.  They are taking risks in going up against the trendies and the global warming industry, but they are doing the right thing.

Some of these true heroes will not get the best cocktail-party invitations if they visit Washington, Manhattan, or Beverly Hills, but I get the feeling they won't care.

April 11,  2012     Permalink

APRIL 10,  2012 

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:31 P.M. ET:

RICK BOWS OUT – All of you are probably aware by now that Rick Santorum has suspended his presidential campaign.  Newt Gingrich has not, but he was fast becoming an electoral asterisk.  He no longer has the funds to mount a true effort.  Ron Paul will remain, but he always has.  Romney will be the nominee, barring some catastrophe.  Santorum didn't mention Romney in his withdrawal speech, indicating that there's still some healing to do.  But Romney can now devote himself to the general election campaign and the choice of a running mate.

VERY STRANGE – There has been a dramatic turn in the Trayvon Martin case.  Attorneys for the shooter, George Zimmerman, have resigned from the case, citing their inability to contact their client.  They said they hadn't been able to reach him since Sunday, and that he is no longer in Florida.  That's strange.  I could see attorneys standing down if they couldn't reach a client for, say, a week.  But a day and a half?  I'm guessing, with no direct evidence, that there are other factors here.  Meanwhile, Angela Corey, the special prosecutor in the case, says she will release new information within 72 hours.  Some observers say she might announce charges, if any.  The question now:  Where is George Zimmerman?  The Trayvon Martin family says it's concerned he'll never be found.  Let's wait for facts.

MIXING POLITICS AND SPORTS – It's really quite a remarkable spectacle:  The Venezuelan-born manager of the Miami Marlins major-league baseball team, Ozzie Guillen, has been suspended for five games for saying over the weekend that he loved Fidel Castro.  Yeah, he said that.  In Miami.  That's like going to Tel Aviv and singing a love song to Adolf Hitler.  The Marlins have had a difficult relationship with Miami's Cuban-American community, and that community is now in an uproar.  The five-game suspension, and the apologies Guillen has made for his comment, will not be enough.  Guillen will be booed every time he steps out on the field.  My guess:  We'll see a new Marlins manager very soon.  Politics and sports do mix.

SOFT-SPOKEN CHRIS – Kindly, warm, gentle Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey has given a mild, thoughtful analysis of our national condition.  He says we're turning into a "paternalistic entitlement society" that will lead us to national bankruptcy and moral degradation.  He says,  “We’ll have a bunch of people sittin’ on a couch waiting for their next government check.”  Other than that, he's all for us.  I love Chris Christie.  He's a great governor.  He tells it like it is.  I'm not so sure he's the type who would wear well on a national ticket. 

April 10, 2012       Permalink

NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:   North Korea is about to send up a missile as part of what it calls a peaceful satellite launch.  Pretty much everyone else calls it a test of the country's ICBM program. 

Japan has already given orders to shoot down the North Korean missile if it threatens any Japanese home island. 

We don't normally praise statements by the Obama White House, especially on national security, but the White House has issued an unusually intelligent and firm statement on the North Korean action: 

The White House is pushing back against the media for what it sees as oversaturated coverage of this week’s forthcoming North Korean missile test.

“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know this is a propaganda exercise,” National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor told me. “Reporters have to be careful not to get co-opted.”

The way they were co-opted by the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam War.

The long-range missile test, which Pyongyang is touting as a peaceful satellite launch, has given networks, newspapers and wires a rare opportunity to report from within the country. NBC’s Richard Engel, ABC’s Bob Woodruff and CNN’s Stan Grant are among those who have already produced curtain-raising segments on the days ahead. The Associated Press is turning out blow-by-blow coverage, and reporters are tweeting and filing frequently.

But Vietor fears that by flooding the zone in North Korea, U.S. media outlets are providing the country’s leadership with propaganda tools that will only embolden their efforts to enhance its intercontinental ballistic missile capability.

“North Korea is trying to sell this to the world as being about space exploration, when really it’s about testing missile technology,” he told me. “They’re using the press, using this angle of a space mission, to hide their real goal.”

At the same time, he said, “they are tightly tacking the press into tight areas so they only see military hardware. They’re not allowing them to tour the countryside and see the people who are starving.”

COMMENT:  Very well said.  I always fear that elements of the press will develop a soft spot in their hearts for some Stalinist country.   A number of their predecessors had the same problem.  Sadly, journalists with that affliction tend to be well rewarded. 

April 10, 2012       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:22 A.M. ET:

From CBS Detroit:  President Barack Obama is coming to the Motor City for a $1 million pizza party being thrown for him compliments of Denise Ilitch, daughter of Little Caesars’ founders Mike and Marian Ilitch. Ilitch is opening her home April 18 for the fundraiser where movers and shakers are being asked to pony up thousands to add to his re-election coffer while getting a chance to rub shoulders with the most powerful man on the planet...$40,000 buys access to the cocktail reception, formal photo with Obama and dinner. $10,000 buys dinner and a photo.

Man of the people.  Detroit is one of the poorest cities in the United States.  Yuch.

SOME GOOD ADVICE – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  Although we have doubts about the Washington Post poll published today – see the story just below – Romney gets some very solid advice in the Post today from op-ed columnist Michael Gerson, who was Bush 43's chief speechwriter. 

Gerson takes seriously Romney's inability thus far to connect with voters, especially women.  He reminds us of some truths about American politics: 

The GOP’s main problem is not the contraceptive issue; it is the perception that it has become too ideological on many issues. Women and independent voters have seen a party enthusiastically confirming its most damaging stereotypes. The composite Republican candidate — reflecting the party’s ideological mean — has been harsh on immigration, confrontational on social issues, simplistic in condemning government and silent on the struggles of the poor. How many women would find this profile appealing on eHarmony?

This is the hidden curse of the Republican congressional triumph of 2010. Republican activists came to believe that purity is all that is necessary for victory. But a presidential candidate, it turns out, requires a broader ideological attraction than your average tea party House freshman.

And...

A number of eventual presidents, including Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, emerged weakened from their nomination battles. And Romney is not a radical figure. During the heat of the primaries, he was accused of being a closet pragmatist. Now he can finally come out.

And..

Mainly, women and independents want some reassurance that Republicans give a damn about someone other than Republican primary voters. It is not a high bar. But Romney needs to start somewhere — to pick an issue of justice and equity that he cares about deeply. It could be lowering an unemployment rate that is now more than 40 percent among African American teenagers. Or the improvement of high school dropout factories attended by 38 percent of black students and 33 percent of Latino students in America. There are plenty of sound conservative and free-market reforms that can be applied to improving the lives of the vulnerable.

Finally...

One of the best ways to appeal to women — and to humans, for that matter — is to show some humanity.

COMMENT:  Gerson has it right.  With just about everyone on the right now claiming the mantle of Ronald Reagan, we forget how warm Reagan was, and how practical.  He was an idealist, not an ideologist.  He was common-sense, not rigid.  He knew when to make a deal.  As a two-term governor of our largest state, he knew how to be president.  He was a conservative, and he stood for conservative principles.  But they were principles, not hand grenades. 

Reagan built the strongest defense force America has seen since the end of World War II.  But he was also an arms controller. 

I do fear that the Republican Party is making the same mistake the Democratic Party made, starting in the late sixties, roping itself to a rigidly ideological base.  I respect that base, but it cannot win a presidential election alone.  In 2008 Barack Obama convinced Americans, falsely, that he is a moderate.  He isn't a moderate, but he and his handlers understood that Americans are skeptical of rigid ideology. 

Romney can win.  Statistically, he is actually in a better place than Reagan was at this point in 1980.  He must be a conservative because that is the fundamental platform of his party.  But he's now, in the words of the old commercial, got to reach out and touch someone, and demonstrate that conservatism, well practiced, presents a positive vision of the future, not just a scolding lecture.

I am not interested in losing.  Losing is a bore.

April 10, 2012       Permalink

BAD POLL, BUT A WARNING – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  I wish news organizations would try to meet at least an acceptable standard in the polls they sponsor and publish.  I don't see any sign that this wish will come true.

The Washington Post publishes today a poll that is very bad news for Mitt Romney:

With the general-election campaign beginning to take shape, President Obama holds clear advantages over Mitt Romney on personal attributes and a number of key issues, but remains vulnerable to discontent with the pace of the economic recovery, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama has double-digit leads over the likely Republican presidential nominee on who would do a better job of protecting the middle class, addressing women’s issues, handling international affairs and dealing with health care.

On personal traits, the president’s edge is even bigger: He has a better than 2-to-1 advantage as the more friendly and likable of the two, and nearly that margin as “more inspiring.”

Romney faces a huge deficit among female voters, one that more than negates his advantage among men and represents one of the biggest challenges he and his advisers face as they turn toward the November election. Obama’s edge among women gives him a clear lead among all registered voters in a matchup with Romney.

COMMENT:  Pretty grim, and I think it does match the general feelings about Romney versus Obama.  But here is the kicker, again from the Post's story: 

This poll was conducted April 5 to 8 among a random national sample of 1,103 adults. Results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

That is about the worst way to take a poll.  It isn't even a poll of registered voters.  And it certainly isn't a poll of likely voters, which is the best kind of poll.  Elections are decided by votes cast on election day.  They are not decided by "all adults," a good chunk of whom will never meet a voting machine. 

Polls that survey likely voters tend to go "more Republican," so some of the numbers in this new poll should be viewed with skepticism.  Still, Romney has a tough road ahead.  He is up against a formidable political machine that has experience at winning a national election.  And it isn't run by sweet guys.

April 10, 2012       Permalink

IRAN DEFIANT – AT 8:37 A.M. ET:  With international talks on his country's nuclear program only days away, the president of Iran is striking a note of defiance, essentially mocking the sanctions that have been imposed on his country.

(Reuters) - Iran has enough funds to withstand a total embargo on its oil sales for two to three years, Iranian media quoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying days before the resumption of talks with world powers on Tehran's nuclear programme.

The European Union is set to impose a total embargo on Iranian crude oil from July following similar measures imposed by the United States to try to force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment.

"We must say to them that we have that much saved that even if we didn't sell oil for two to three years, the country would manage easily," a report on Tuesday from Fars news agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying during a visit to Hormuzgan province.

The United States and its allies hope the sanctions on Iran's energy and financial sectors will force it to abandon uranium enrichment which they suspect is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its goals are entirely peaceful.

Iran is due to resume talks this week with Western countries plus Russia and China on its nuclear programme.

COMMENT:  And if Iran could hold out two or three years, it would probably have a nuclear weapon by the time the economic pain truly began to hurt.

This could be bluster, but the fact remains that no sanctions have ever worked with Iran in forcing the kind of change we're demanding – the abandonment of any part of its nuclear program leading to a weapon.  And there seems to be a general feeling of pessimism about the talks about to start.

In the last few days we've learned that the USS Enterprise strike group has entered the territory near Iran, joining another American carrier.  (For the Enterprise, this is a last hurrah.  It is our oldest aircraft carrier, and will be retired later this year.)  This marks the first time in many years that the United States has had two carriers in the region.  Clearly, this is meant to send a message to the Iranians.  Obama has also said repeatedly that there is little time left for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff.  What does he mean though?  What would we actually do?  No direct answers have been given.

An Israeli newspaper reports this morning that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promised President Obama that Israel would take no military action against Iran until after the American election.  I suspect, but cannot prove, that the story is true.  To this president, everything is about politics.  But we should be reminded, in this context, of the wisdom expressed by Douglas MacArthur, who reminded us that all military disasters begin with two words:  Too late.

April 10,  2012     Permalink