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APRIL 14,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:05 P.M. ET:

THE IRAN TALKS – I'm just so excited.  The first day of talks with Iran about that country's nuclear program ended today, and observers say they were "positive."  What does this mean?  Why, it means they agreed to meet again next month.  It's wonderful when peace breaks out, isn't it?  How brilliant Obama is.  His diplomacy achieved an Iranian agreement to meet today...to plan another meeting.  That Nobel Peace Prize was deserved.  Oh, the Iranians are apparently demanding that the U.S. and Europe agree not to attack Iran while the talks are ongoing.  At one meeting a month, that might be, say, 10 years.

WE APOLOGIZE AGAIN – The U.S. has apologized to a major Indian movie star, Shah Rukh Khan, who was detained for 90 minutes after his private jet landed at a New York airport.  Khan arrived to deliver a speech at Yale.  He also complained he was delayed for more than two hours in 2009.  Hey, do you think maybe that Mr. Khan, who is very full of himself, isn't following some rules?  Apparently, people flying to America can avoid these hassles by following some very simple procedures before they leave.  Maybe Khan thinks he's too important.  Incredibly, the French news agency that reported the story compared it to the Trayvon Martin case.  I'm not kidding.

CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN? – The United States has always run the World Bank.  And, given the amount of money involved and our contributions to the Bank, that's a good idea.  But this is the age of Obama, where a big neon sign saying WEAKNESS flashes outside the White House every night.  There's a vacancy at the top of the Bank following the resignation of American diplomat Robert Zoellick.  Ordinarily, it would be a foregone conclusion that another American would be appointed.  But now other nations, especially in Africa, are challenging our supremacy.  Candidates like Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala have stepped forward to challenge Obama's choice, Dartmouth College President Jim Yong Kim.  The Bank's board will decide next week.  Although it's unlikely, don't be shocked if we lose the presidency.  We've lost pretty much everything else under Obama.

April 14, 2012       Permalink

FROM THE REAL WORLD – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  President Obama is in Latin America for some "negotiations."  Other "negotiations" begin in Turkey today over Iran's nuclear program.  While everyone is talking, let us not forget that real actions are being taken in the real world:

(Reuters) - Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad shelled the battered Syrian city of Homs on Saturday, killing one person, opposition activists said, in the first such shelling since a ceasefire began two days ago.

The United Nations Security Council is tentatively scheduled to vote on a Western-Arab draft resolution authorizing an advance U.N. team to monitor the fragile ceasefire which aims to end 13 months of bloodshed during the uprising against Assad.

It is still unclear if Russia, one of Assad's allies, can be persuaded to support the draft, which calls on Syria to allow access for a team of up to 30 unarmed military observers and threatens to consider "further steps" if Syria does not comply.

When will we ever learn that people like Bashar al-Assad use negotiations only to advance their own positions, not to settle conflicts.  The ceasefire is already collapsing.  And then there's this:

A German ship carrying Iranian weapons was stopped in the Mediterranean on Saturday, according to a report by Der Spiegel.

The ship, weighing 6,200 tons, was carrying weapons and ammunition to Tartus, Syria with the aim of arming President Bashar Assad's forces, the report said.

It docked a few days ago in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, where it was loaded with weapons supplied by an Iranian cargo ship.

The ship was identified by Syrian defectors, who contacted the German shipping company. The company then ordered the ship to change course, and although it started heading toward Turkey is was eventually halted 80 kilometers southwest of Tartus.

The German government says it's looking into the report.

Der Spiegel quoted shipping agent Torsten Lueddeke of Hamburg-based C.E.G. Bulk Chartering as saying: "We stopped the ship after we received information on the weapons cargo."

COMMENT:  Yeah, they stopped the ship after getting caught.  There is a disturbing trade between Germany and Iran, and some in Germany, especially in commercial circles, have cozied up to the Iranian regime. 

Let's remember these stories during "negotiations."

April 14, 2012       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  We like to cite Scott Rasmussen's polls here because he surveys likely voters.   We think that's the most sensible way to conduct a pre-election poll.  Who cares about people who don't intend to vote?

Rasmussen's Saturday report, just published, paints a picture of a tight race, but one in which Romney has a very solid shot:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18.

In a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney earns 48% of the vote, while President Obama attracts 43% support. Data released on the first 14 days of April has shown Romney with an advantage five times, Obama with an edge four times and the candidates tied five times.

Looked at from a different perspective, the candidates have been within two points of each other on nine of 14 days. Romney has had a larger advantage three times and Obama twice. Overall, these numbers suggest a very close race.

Scott Rasmussen's weekly syndicated column notes that the president's job approval ratings have remain locked in a very narrow range—just below 50%-- for the past 32 months. As Romney and Obama begin the general election campaign, the underlying fundamentals also point to the likelihood of a very close race in November.

COMMENT:  Obviously, some dramatic event outside the campaign, like a military conflict or a sudden economic decline, will affect the outcome of the election.  So will press bias, which is virtually impossible to measure by a poll. 

The election will be held in less than seven months. 

April 14, 2012       Permalink

DON'T SAY NO ONE WARNED US – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:  There is a clear change, an ugly change, from the Obama of 2008 to the Obama of 2012.  In a well-titled piece, "Obama puts bully in bully pulpit," The Hill explains:

President Obama in recent days has provided a taste of the sharp tone he will use in the general election against Mitt Romney, the presumptive GOP nominee.

Obama has emerged this year with sharper elbows than the “no-drama" candidate had in 2008. He is injecting drama, cranking up the rhetoric, for example by chiding Romney and congressional Republicans as being "radical" and “members of the flat Earth society.”

Obama, as one former aide put it, "is putting the bully in bully pulpit."

He is deploying mockery, swiping at Romney for not supporting the Buffett Rule and for using the word ‘marvelous,’ which Obama himself has repeatedly used without irony.

And...

Even Republicans say the difference between Obama 2008 and 2012 is palpable.

“He’s gone from No-Drama-Obama to High-Drama-Obama,” GOP strategist Ron Bonjean said. “They’ve gone after Republicans hard in the last few weeks, everything from the Supreme Court to attacks on Mitt Romney but it’s boomeranged. They’re throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks but it ends up splashing back at them.”

But Democratic strategists and those close to the Obama campaign say the strategy is an effective one. Obama needs to come out swinging, to appeal to a dissatisfied base along with the critical independent vote.

COMMENT:  It will work with the base.  I doubt if it will work with independents.  Obama needs to rile the base just to get minorities and "youth" to go out and vote on election day.  He needed no such spur in 2008.

Independents, though, are, well, independent.  I doubt if they'll be moved by Obama's attacks on the Supreme Court or on Paul Ryan.

It will be rough.  Fortunately, one good thing about Mitt Romney is that he's a fighter, not a punching bag.  And he needs a fighter in the v.p. slot.

Combat ahead.

April 14,  2012     Permalink

APRIL 13,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:12 P.M. ET:

NO EATS FOR NORTH KOREA – The United States has cancelled planned food aid to North Korea as a result of that nation's missile test yesterday, even though the test failed.  North Korea needs to import food to feed its own people.  The White House said that the launch of the missile showed that North Korea could not be trusted to keep its commitments.

NOT EXACTLY A CULTURAL PHENOMENON – Don't you love it when a television show is anointed as a "cultural phenomenon," even though its audience is scarce?  It turns out that "The Daily Show," with Jon Stewart, that well-known cultural phenomenon, attracts an audience of 1.8 million.  The related comedy show with Stephen Colbert pulls in 1.4 million.  Combined, the two shows have an audience of .092% of the American population.  Not exactly a game changer in my book, but don't tell that to the mainstream media.

VOCABULARY LESSON – A new political word is entering the vocabulary.  To "Draperize."  The word refers to the character of Don Draper, a senior advertising executive played by Jon Hamm on the show "Mad Men," which is set in the early 60s.  Reportedly, the Dems want to "Draperize" Mitt Romney, portraying him as a man from a different era, out of touch, and living in the past.  I think this is a silly strategy that won't work at all.  Romney, with all his faults, is not from a different era, and "Draperizing" just won't stick.

REMARKABLE MOVE – In an extraordinary appeal to the European Court of Human Rights, the former Archbishop of Canterbury charges that his country, Great Britain, officially vilifies Christians and their beliefs, and that the British court system persecutes Christians and is driving them underground.  This is a remarkable test case, and can open the door to a real examination of what the archbishop says is a “drive to remove Judaeo-Christian values from the public square.”  It is happening here, and is being led by the political left and its entrenched power centers, especially in universities.  Hail the archbishop.

April 13, 2012        Permalink 

IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED – AT 10:01 A.M. ET:  What an embarrassment.  North Korea tried a missile test yesterday, defying the international community, and the missile broke up in less than a minute.  But the northerners remain defiant, and there may be more to come:

(Reuters) - North Korea said its much hyped long-range rocket launch failed on Friday, in a very rare and embarrassing public admission of failure by the hermit state and a blow for its new young leader who faces international outrage over the attempt.

The isolated North, using the launch to celebrate the 100th birthday of the dead founding president Kim Il-sung and to mark the rise to power of his grandson Kim Jong-un, is now widely expected to press ahead with its third nuclear test to show its military strength.

"The possibility of an additional long-range rocket launch or a nuclear test, as well as a military provocation to strengthen internal solidarity is very high," a senior South Korean defense ministry official told a parliamentary hearing.

The two Koreas are divided by the world's most militarized border and remain technically at war after an armistice ended the Korean War in 1953.

COMMENT:  Even though the test failed, it was seen as a major rebuff to President Obama.  Indeed, it's clear that many nations, especially hostile nations, no longer take Obama seriously, and believe him to be a paper tiger.  These nations do what they wish, and Obama's usual response is to call for more negotiations. 

We have nothing credible to use against the North Koreans, except the threat to cut off food supplies, which would be seen as punishing only the people, not the government.

So we prepare for the next North Korean demo.  This is what happens when we have an administration that doesn't understand the lessons of the 20th century.

April 13, 2012       Permalink

ECONOMIC DOLDRUMS – AT 9:39 A.M. ET:  Clearly, the economy has hit some speed bumps in recent weeks, with two bad labor reports in a row.  The renewed worries are reflected in dissension within the Federal Reserve, whose actions, or lack of actions, can have serious political implications in November.  From Bloomberg:

Federal Reserve officials widened a rift over a commitment to keep rates near zero through late 2014 as an unexpected increase in claims for jobless benefits added to evidence of a weakening labor market.

William C. Dudley, president of the New York Fed, and Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said the 2014 time-frame is needed to lower unemployment from 8.2 percent. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said rising inflation may prompt an interest-rate increase as early as this year, while Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser said policy should hinge on economic performance, not a calendar commitment.

Central bankers next meet in two weeks to consider policy for an economy that Dudley and Yellen said may be sapped by cuts in government spending and the European debt crisis. Dudley and Yellen backed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s view that progress in reducing joblessness may not be sustained as growth cools.

“There is a debate going on, but right now the power rests with the chairman and governors” favoring the 2014 rate outlook, said Joseph Lavorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. Even so, the comments suggest “the Fed does not feel it has to take additional easing,” he said.

COMMENT:  If things don't improve by November, Obama will be at a distinct disadvantage.  It's being said by some pundits that Obama can't win the election, but the Republicans can lose it.  There may be truth in that.

But don't underestimate the Obama political team.  They move quickly, and they're deadly.  Yesterday, they threw big-time Dem activist Hilary Rosen under the bus after she said that Ann Romney, a stay-at-home mom, never held a job.  Rosen's political obituary has been written.  The only thing left is a memorial service.  These boys play rough, and they're effective. 

April 13, 2012       Permalink

FRIDAY THE 13TH – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  It's Friday the 13th, so Iran must be back at the negotiating table.

And yes, there is the Iranian delegation appearing in Turkey for a new round of international negotiations on Iran's nuclear program that will begin tomorrow.  At least they're scheduled.

The Iranians are today speaking in mildly conciliatory terms, saying they come in peace, want an agreement, and believe in mutual respect.  That and a token gets me on public transport. 

I'm worried about these talks, worried that President Obama, eager for an agreement to wave, umbrella in hand, before the American people, may agree to too much.  Already, in my view, he has blundered badly.  Yesterday he said that if the talks fail he's prepared for...more sanctions on Iran.  Nothing like hitting them with a sack of marshmallows.

Obama should have said nothing, leaving the way open for the Iranians to contemplate the possibility of a Western military strike against them.  They are not afraid of sanctions.  But Iranian leaders may be afraid of getting killed themselves.  It's very easy for them to send young boys out to commit suicide...as long as they don't have to go along on the trip.

Already we're seeing the outlines of an Obama Iran strategy in the months leading up to the election.  Who's preventing a peaceful settlement of the Iran problem?  The terminally obnoxious Fareed Zakaria, one of CNN's deep-thinking intellectuals, and an informal adviser to President Obama, puts it this way:

The administration has handled its allies, Russia, China, the United Nations and even Tehran with skill. To succeed, however, it has to tackle its most formidable foe, with whom it has not had much negotiating success: Republicans.

Yup.  The real enemy isn't Iran, run by a bunch of Holocaust-denying modern fascists, who murder their own people in the street.  The real enemy is Mitt Romney.

Mr. Zakaria will be the commencement speaker at Harvard next month.  Surprised?

April 13, 2012       Permalink

THE TRAYVON MARTIN CASE – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  This case may be headed for trouble, as in Duke University lacrosse, as in O.J. Simpson.

We're publishing a bit late this morning because we've been flooded with e-mails from knowledgeable readers who have direct experience with the Florida justice system.  Some have direct knowledge of the prosecutor, Angela Corey.  I wanted to examine all the assertions before writing.

It is clear that this case gets curioser and curioser.  Many legal authorities are expressing alarm at the thinness of the evidence against George Zimmerman presented by the special prosecutor.  We noted at "Short Takes" last night that no less an appeals lawyer than Alan Dershowitz, of the Harvard Law School, has used words like "unethical" to describe the prosecutor's actions.  There appears to be little in the prosecutor's affidavit to support a charge of second-degree murder.  And the prosecutor refused to present her "evidence" to a grand jury.  (She can charge by herself.)  Maybe she was afraid of the result.

The special prosecutor herself has come under scrutiny, leading me to lower substantially my original good impression of her.  Some say she has a history of "overcharging" defendants.  Others say she's intensely political and seeks higher office.  These are charges.  We don't assert them as fact. 

Florida practice leads the Washington Post to predict that the trial of George Zimmerman, if this case ever reaches trial, will be televised.  Prepare yourself for another O.J. Simpson farce, with another intimidated or politicized jury.

So far, Zimmerman's lawyer, Mark O'Hara, has been very gentle in his statements, leading some observers to believe that he sees a plea deal ahead. 

Stand by.  This is just the beginning.

And remember, the most important name in this case isn't George Zimmerman.  It is Eric Holder, the attorney general of the United States, and something of a racial radical.  He has already pledged that his department, which can't be bothered in a number of other heinous crimes, will oversee the case.  We know where Holder's instincts lie.  His statements can be interpreted as kind of a threat:  "If Florida doesn't get Zimmerman, we will."

We don't know yet how this case will impact the presidential campaign.  But we've long felt here that the race card will be played to energize the Democratic base.  The gender card is already in play.

April 13,  2012     Permalink